杀破狼 WolfyXBT

Today's Wolf Wave Cycle Index = 0.222 (0 = bear bottom, 1 = bull top)

• Wolf Wave Cycle Index: https://wolfyxbt.github.io/wolfy-wave-index/

This bear market cycle will bottom at block height 971,250, which corresponds to approximately ≈ 2026/10/15. The date may be off by a few days depending on Bitcoin's block production speed.

The bull market for Bitcoin has ended, and we have now entered a bear market.

The peak of this bull market occurred on 2025/10/06, with the price of Bitcoin at 126,000. I also do not wish to speak negatively about my career, but according to the "four-year cycle theory," the price of Bitcoin has indeed peaked. I just want to convey this fact to more newcomers who have entered this cycle.

In my opinion, the "Bitcoin halving" has the greatest impact on the price of Bitcoin; it is much larger than any other event (macroeconomics, regulatory policies, geopolitical issues, wars, pandemics, etc.). The four-year cycle theory is a cyclical theory that revolves around Bitcoin halving, and it is currently the most reliable cyclical theory in the cryptocurrency space, without exception.

The core of the four-year cycle theory is: "Bitcoin halving" dominates the rhythm of Bitcoin's bull and bear transitions, dividing the fluctuations of a Bitcoin bull and bear cycle into 4 parts, which are:

Bull Beginning >> Halving >> Bull End >> Bear Market

Before the "halving," there will be a "Bull Beginning,"
After the "halving," there will be a "Bull End,"
The "halving day" will be interspersed in the "middle region" of the entire bull market,
The duration of the "Bull Beginning" and "Bull End" is basically similar,

After the "Bull End," there will be a bear market lasting 1 year, and then we will wait for the next "halving day" to drive the next "Bull Beginning" market, and so on, ad infinitum.

From the diagram below, we can see that the "Bull End" of this round has already concluded, and we have officially entered the "Bear Market" zone. Even if the date I mentioned may not be absolutely accurate, there is no need for us to continue betting in this zone.

BitMart’s CEO doesn’t even know that his own company has shut down.

The crypto world is truly a fascinating place: the CEO listed on the homepage usually isn’t the person in charge of the company; and the one who actually has the most say within the company typically has his own homepage labeled with “intern.”

I advise you to go interact with my pinned post right now. Thank you.

In 50 years, your grandson will come back and look at this tweet. By then, the Langbo cycle index will have become the most awesome indicator in the crypto world. Then they’ll find that you actually commented under this tweet, and they’ll be absolutely amazed as they say to you: Wow, grandpa! How did you discover this Langbo cycle index 50 years ago?! Grandpa, you’re so amazing! No wonder you became rich. Hurry up and send me 1 satoshi of pocket money! I want to buy an iPhone 50 Pro Max!

Bitcoin’s breathing rhythm: https://wolfyxbt.github.io/wolfy-wave-index/

It’s too far off until the copycat season talks; when the bull market returns, I’ll continue predicting the copycat season.

This trading competition hosted by the Binance Wallet is absolutely worth signing up for and having a go. I just checked the leaderboard: currently, first place has only earned 81U, and second place has only earned 63U. I feel that with my trading skills, I still have a good chance to win.

The total prize pool is 60,000 $USDG. First place is 12,000U, second place is 7,000U—go check the rest yourselves. Registration link: https://web3.binance.com/zh-CN/pnl-tc/szn4?chain=bsc&ref=SPL001

The competition runs from 07/22 to 08/05, so there’s a little over a week. Also, make sure to note the rules: only trades of the tokens emitted by Robinhood on-chain via Virtuals Protocol will count—trades on other platforms won’t be counted.

How long does it take for Huang Renxun’s fans to exceed Sha Po Lang?

Damn, Huang Renxun has joined X! He just posted his first tweet!

Making money in life relies on Kondratiev waves; making money in crypto relies on Wolf waves

I just invented a new indicator called the Wolfy Wave Index (WWI). This indicator lets us understand very intuitively which stage of Bitcoin’s four-year cycle we are currently in.

The indicator oscillates in a cycle between 0 and 1 based on Bitcoin’s block height.

The closer the WWI is to 1, the closer we are to the top of a bull market;
The closer the WWI is to 0, the closer we are to the bottom of a bear market.

The current WWI value is 0.226.

The date corresponding to the last time the WWI value was 1 was 「2025/10/12」, and the corresponding Bitcoin price was 115,090. It basically correctly predicted the bull-market top. The next date corresponding to a WWI value of 0 is expected to be around 「2026/11/08」, which also matches my rough prediction for this bear market’s bottom.

You can check the current WWI value in real time on this website: https://wolfyxbt.github.io/wolfy-wave-index/

I'll teach you how to pronounce WolfyXBT, you useless wipe your nose

When speaking Chinese, don’t mix in English; when speaking English, don’t mix in Chinese. Say it cleanly and clearly, and go all in to speak a language well. Don’t treat slipping English into Chinese as something very advanced—because sooner or later, that will lead to failure.

Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles 2:0 Still Laughing

Learning AI—if your learning speed isn’t fast enough and your learning methods aren’t scientific enough, you might as well not learn it at all. Because the pace at which model capabilities improve will continuously outstrip and replace what you’ve learned.

What you learn today, tomorrow’s model can complete directly.

So either make sure your learning speed is fast enough so that speed becomes your greatest competitive advantage, or make sure your learning methods are scientific enough so that what you learn can appreciate with improvements in model capability, instead of being overtaken by it.

Today kimi-k3 is released, surpassing fable-5;
Yesterday gpt-5.6-sol was released, surpassing fable-5;
The day before yesterday grok-4.5 was released, surpassing opus-4.8;
Three days ago glm-5.2 was released, surpassing opus-4.8;
Four days ago fable-5 was released, surpassing gpt-5.5;
Five days ago minimax-m3 was released, surpassing gpt-5.5;
Six days ago opus-4.8 was released, surpassing gpt-5.5;
Seven days ago deepseek-v4 was released, surpassing opus-4.7;
Eight days ago gpt-5.5 was released, surpassing opus-4.7;
Nine days ago opus-4.7 was released, surpassing opus-5.4.

Oh wow, how did Anthropic in China drop 30% in a single day today? 😭

Lu Benwei has returned

On Douyin everyone has already stood up; on X they haven't yet stood up

Now, everyone stand up

Share your nude photos, or share your ChatGPT chat logs.

Pick one—what would you choose.

OpenAI released a keyboard accessory, selling for 1,500 yuan and 200 yuan shipping

If something like this were made by Huaqiangbei, what would the cost be? Is it difficult?

Zhipu is China’s Anthropic;
DeepSeek is China’s OpenAI;
ChangXin Memory is China’s Micron;

Anything else?