The Breakout Trading Strategy I Use to Catch Big Moves
I’ve longed resistance and shorted support for 9 years… This is the exact opposite of what every trader tries to do. In this article, I will share my entire strategy so you can skip years of testing and losses. This is something you will want to bookmark, take notes on, and set time aside to think about. Lesson 1: The Only 2 Trading Strategies Before you can identify good momentum setups, you need to understand what momentum trading actually is. Momentum and mean reversion are opposite strategies based on opposite assumptions. The Two Trading Styles Momentum (where you take a trade betting on a continuation of the current trend)Mean Reversion (where you take a trade betting on a reversal of the current trend) One assumes strength continues; the other assumes strength exhausts. Let’s consider this through a visual example. Suppose price is approaching a resistance level (in other words, a level where there was previously selling pressure, preventing the price from moving higher). Momentum assumes the level will break. You’re betting on continuation.Price approaches resistance, you buy, expecting it to push through and keep running.The level becomes support once broken. Mean reversion assumes the level will hold. You’re betting on rejection.Price approaches resistance, you short, expecting it to bounce back down.The level acts as a ceiling. Same chart. Same resistance level. Opposite strategies. There is no right or wrong. The key is to understand when you are in a momentum trade environment, such that momentum strategies are highly aligned. The next section shows you exactly how to identify when the environment favours momentum (my best strategy). Lesson 1 Summary There are 2 trading styles: momentum and mean reversionMean reversion bets levels will hold; momentum bets levels will breakOne is not better than the other; it depends entirely on the trade environment Lesson 2: Optimal Trade Environment Just opening a long every time price hits resistance won't make us any money. Without the right conditions, momentum dies immediately after the breakout. You enter. It reverses. You're stopped out. That's not bad luck, that's a bad trading environment. The Rowing Analogy Imagine you’re rowing a boat. You either row against or with the current. One makes it easier to row while the other takes a lot more effort. Your boat, or rowing technique, didn’t change… Only your environment did. Trading is the same. Your strategy is your boat. Your optimal trade environment is the current. Now use this 3-filter checklist to ensure you only take trades where a breakout is likely (with the current). Filter 1: How Did Price Approach the Level? What you WANT: A slow, grinding staircase pattern approaching resistance.Each candle makes incremental progress.Higher lows are stacking up.Controlled, deliberate movement. What you DON’T want: A fast vertical spike into resistance.Price shoots up in one or two large candles.After a spike, buyers' strength is depleted and price typically consolidates or reverses.This is exhaustion, not momentum. The staircase pattern shows sustained buying pressure building gradually. When this breaks through resistance, buyers are still engaged and ready to push further. Common mistake: Traders see a strong candle break resistance and assume momentum is strong. But these fast moves often reverse quickly. → Do this instead: Take momentum trades when price approaches resistance in a slow, grinding staircase over multiple candles. Real Trade Example: Slow clear grind into resistance showing an optimal ‘price approach to level’ for momentum. Filter 1: slow grindy staircase ✅ Filter 2: What Did Volume Look Like? Volume confirms whether the price movement has conviction behind it. What you WANT: Gradual increase in volume as price approaches resistanceThis pattern shows controlled, sustainable momentum. What you DON’T want: Flat volume (no conviction) or sudden volume spikes (exhaustion).Flat volume means the move lacks participation.Volume spikes often mark climax points where momentum exhausts.Decreasing volume (why would price break out of resistance now, if volume was lower than before?) Volume should mirror the price pattern, steady and building, not erratic. This strategy works because momentum continuation is most likely when participation is sustained, supply is absorbed gradually, and structure remains intact. Real Trade Example: Around the time the grindy staircase begins to emerge, we see a slow, consistent increase in volume. Filter 1: slow grindy staircase ✅Filter 2: clearly increasing volume ✅ Lastly, Filter 3: Moving Average Crossovers This filter distinguishes trending markets (good for momentum) from choppy, indecisive markets (bad for momentum). What you WANT to see: Moving averages with minimal crossovers. This indicates a directional trend. What you DON’T want to see: Frequent crossovers. This signals chop and indecision. Fewer crossovers = cleaner trend or range = better momentum continuation. Use the 30SMMA (Smoothed Moving Average). ✍️Quick Actionable Step: To add the 30SMMA on your charts: Search for the Smoothed Moving Average Indicator in TradingViewAdd it to your chartGo into settings and change the "Length" to "30" Real Trade Example: Filter 1 (Price Action): slow grindy staircase ✅ Filter 2 (Volume): clearly increasing volume ✅ Filter 3 (Crossovers): minimal MA crossovers ✅ 🎓Lesson 2 Summary Slow grinding staircase approaches have better follow-through than fast spikesVolume should be gradual (increasing or decreasing), not flat or spikingFewer MA crossovers indicate cleaner directional conditions for momentum Lesson 3: Identifying Setups Now you know what momentum is. You also know the optimal conditions for it. Next, you need to know where to execute these trades. Step 1: Draw Support and Resistance Levels Momentum trades happen at these key levels. You need to identify them consistently. I've already written an in-depth masterclass on how to set these levels. I'll link it at the end of this article. Common mistake: Traders draw levels randomly or inconsistently, leading to missed setups or false signals. Do this instead: Use my step-by-step approach at the end of this article. Step 2: Await Your Entry Trigger on the 1-Minute Chart Once you’ve identified a resistance level on your primary timeframe, switch to the 1-minute chart for precise entry timing. Why 1-minute chart? You learn faster. More trades, more chart exposure and more oppurtunities to practice psychology. I’ve added a bonus guide on why you should be trading the 1-minute chart at the end of this article. Real Trade Example: Step 3: Three Filters Before entering, check the three filters from Section 2: Is price approaching resistance in a slow staircase pattern?Is volume gradually increasing or decreasing (not flat or spiking)?Are there minimal MA crossovers (not choppy)? If any filter fails, reduce your risk on the trade. Only take full risk on A-grade setups, not forcing trades in poor conditions. 🎓Lesson 3 Summary Draw levels using the ZCT masterclass approach at the end of this articleUse your entry trigger on the 1-minute timeframe: 2 candle closes above for confirmationCheck all three filters before entering, allocate risk and size accordingly Lesson 4: Strategy Logic: Stop Loss, and Take Profit You've drawn your levels. You've confirmed the setup aligns with optimal momentum conditions. Now you need precise execution. Entry timing, stop placement, and profit targets determine whether you capture the momentum move or get stopped out on a good setup. This is where most traders lose, not in analysis, but in execution. Step 4: Entry Trigger We have established to wait for two consecutive 1-minute candles to close fully above the resistance level. This confirms the level broke and momentum is continuing. Critical execution detail: After the second candle closes above resistance, place a limit order AT the resistance level (now acting as support), not above it. Price often pulls back slightly after breaking out. Your limit order gets filled on the pullback without chasing. Common mistake: Traders wait for confirmation, then market-buy above resistance as price runs away. They enter late with a wider stop and worse risk/reward. → Do this instead: Preset your limit order AT resistance after the second candle closes. Let price come back to you. Real Trade Example: Step 5: Stop Loss A swing low is: the lowest wick in a pullback. Your stop loss goes at the most recent swing low before the breakout. Common mistake: Traders place stops at the nearest swing low, even if it’s only 0.3% away, leading to frequent stop-outs from normal volatility Do this instead: Always measure the distance of your stop loss using the ruler tool on TradingView. If it’s less than 1%, use the next swing low down. Step 6: Take Profit 1R (Equal Distance to Stop) Your take profit target is 1R, the same distance as your stop loss, but in the profit direction If your stop loss is 1.982% away from entry, your target is also 1.982% away, but on the upside. This gives you a 1:1 risk/reward ratio. Why 1R? It’s conservative and achievable. Momentum trades often hit 1R quickly because the breakout has follow-through. You’re not trying to catch the entire move, you’re taking a high-probability piece of it. Over time, as you get data in your journal, you can start extending your profit targets when you see how far your average winning trades go beyond 1R. This way, you’re not guessing where to take profits, but following a systematic approach. Real Trade Example: 🎓Lesson 4 summary Enter after two 1-minute candle closes above resistance, using a limit order at prior resistance (now support) to avoid chasing price.Place stop losses at the most recent valid swing low, ensuring enough distance to avoid normal volatility and minor stop hunts.Set initial profit targets at 1R to capture high-probability momentum continuation in a repeatable, systematic way. Immediate Next Steps✍️: Read the Support and Resistance Masterclass to learn how to draw levels (shared at end of article)Look at 3 charts using the 3 filter checklist to identify a momentum trade environmentUse the strategy steps to enter your tradeGather 30 trades using this method, journalled and reviewed against the criteria 🎓 Final Summary Lesson 1: Momentum vs Mean Reversion Momentum trades bet that price will continue through a level, while mean reversion trades bet that a level will hold and reject price.Both strategies are valid, but performance depends entirely on matching the strategy to the correct trade environment. Understanding this distinction prevents applying breakout logic in conditions where it has no edge. Lesson 2: Optimal Trade Environment High-quality breakouts form when price approaches resistance in a slow, grinding staircase rather than fast vertical spikes.Volume should build gradually to confirm sustained participation, not remain flat or spike from exhaustion.Minimal moving average crossovers indicate cleaner directional conditions where momentum continuation is more likely. Lesson 3: Identifying Setups Momentum trades should be executed at consistently drawn support and resistance levels.Entries are triggered on the 1-minute chart using two consecutive candle closes above resistance for confirmation.All three environment filters must align before taking full risk; weaker conditions require reduced sizing or passing the trade. Lesson 4: Stop Loss and Take Profit Enter using a limit order at prior resistance (now support) after two confirmed 1-minute candle closes to avoid chasing price.Stop losses should be placed at the most recent valid swing low with enough distance to avoid normal volatility and minor stop hunts.Initial profit targets are set at 1R to capture high-probability momentum continuation in a repeatable way. 🎓What Changes From Here The next time price approaches resistance, you won’t have to guess if it will break out. You’ll know when a breakout has real momentum, when volume confirms it, and when conditions support follow-through. You’ll also execute with defined entries, stops, and targets. #CryptoZeno #tradingStrategy
GUA, with a market cap of around $6M, saw very high volume yesterday. Safe to say it's the highest volume since day one of listing.
While futures volume hit $272M in the last 24 hours, spot volume came in at only $150K. That gap is enormous and we've seen many times that rallies without spot backing rarely last.
Despite this rally, short positions haven't increased. Probably because the low mcap scares people away from shorting.
Long/Short ratio is above 2.
In short, everyone is long and the move is purely futures driven. There's a liq cluster at $0.074 but with this setup sustaining the rally looks limited.
A pullback to $0.038 is possible if a downtrend kicks in.
Someone Asked Why Their Binance P2P Payment Was Rejected. The Replies Were More Interesting Than The Question
The original question was simple: "Why did the seller refuse to release my USDT even though I had already transferred the money?" The answers weren't about scams at all. Several experienced traders pointed to the same detail first: whose bank account actually sent the payment. If the transfer doesn't match the verified information expected for the order, many sellers would rather pause the trade than take the risk of releasing crypto too early.
Reading through that discussion made me look at my own habits again. I had always paid more attention to the exchange rate than to the small details sitting inside the order window. Those details suddenly felt much more important than saving a few extra cents.
Without really thinking about it, these are the things I check now before every Binance P2P payment:
• The bank account I'm using is registered under my own verified name.
• I read the merchant's payment instructions before opening my banking app, even if they look familiar.
• If something doesn't match the original order, I keep everything inside the Binance P2P chat, save the Order ID, and use Appeal if the trade stops making sense instead of trying to solve it somewhere else.
• Crypto only gets released after the payment is fully reflected in the receiving account, not because a screenshot or notification says it was sent.
That discussion wasn't about someone getting scammed. It was about how a tiny detail before the transfer almost created a problem that didn't need to happen.
Honestly there's nothing negative onchain yet. Transfers to Binance cold wallet are still being held. Looking at L/S ratio, top traders are still holding longs while small fish are slowly starting to flip to shorts.
Volume isn't as high as in previous days. The most notable zone on the liq heatmap is $0.29 to $0.30. On the downside there are small clusters around $0.12 to $0.14. The cluster size at $0.30 is much larger.
We're talking about a $12M mcap token. With a volume surge everything can change very fast.
$BTC Local tops and bottoms almost always form through multiple liquidity sweeps.
It’s textbook market psychology. These are the areas where the majority of stops are positioned. People expect the range to break, so price sweeps the liquidity, traps participants, and then reclaims the range becuase its usually the period everyone begins to lower their targets.
Once the reclaim happens, people short the entire move back up because they’ve been fxcked the entire move down. They’re constantly reacting instead of anticipating, executing at the worst possible time.
Study. Liquidity gets swept. The range gets reclaimed. And almost every time, conviction is at its lowest during the deviation.
$ETH We have been inside this range for over three weeks now, and theoretically, the breakout could be more ideal towards the downside given that this is starting to look like a classic Wyckoff Distribution Schematic.
However, given that BTC still has an Imbalance around the 67k zone which I'm expecting to be filled, it would make more sense for us to see a bullish breakout from this range.
ETH Dominance is also breaking out of a falling wedge/downtrend channel, which means we could see more volume coming into ETH over the next few weeks.
Hence why I'm leaning towards a bullish breakout here and once we reclaim the top of this range on the LTF, I'm expecting a push into the 2141 region.
My HTF POI on ETH is the Untapped Monthly FVG at 2474, which I ultimately expect to be taken out in a 5-Wave Impulse fashion after a small rejection from the 2141 region.
The Fed is about to get the data it needs this week:
1. Tuesday, Existing Home Sales
A key read on the housing market. A weak print could signal that high borrowing costs are continuing to pressure housing demand.
2. Wednesday, CPI
The biggest event of the week. A hotter-than-expected inflation data could push rate-cut expectations lower and reignite concerns about tighter Fed policy.
3. Thursday, PPI
Producer prices offer an early look at pipeline inflation, so a hot number pushes hike odds up further.
4. Thursday, Initial Jobless Claims
Rising claims would signal weakening employment conditions, while a surprisingly low print could support the case for a more resilient economy.
5. Friday, Retail Sales
One of the most important consumer-health indicators. A weak number would raise concerns about slowing household spending and economic growth.
6. Friday, Michigan Consumer Sentiment
Tracks consumer confidence and inflation expectations. A rise in long-term inflation expectations could complicate the Fed’s path toward easing policy.
From the BTC print of $65,245, those median returns correspond to roughly $87K in 6 months, $99K in 9 months, $145K in 12 months, $251K in 18 months, and $266K in 24 months.
I Almost Cancelled A Binance P2P Order Five Seconds Too Early
Yesterday I nearly cancelled a Binance P2P order because I thought the buyer had disappeared.
The countdown was almost over, my bank account was still quiet, and I had already convinced myself the payment wasn't coming. I even moved my finger toward Cancel. Then, just a few seconds later, the transfer arrived.
Nothing suspicious had happened. The buyer wasn't trying to waste my time. The bank was simply slower than the countdown inside my head.
I still checked the sender's name against the one shown in the Binance P2P order before releasing the USDT. Maybe I was being overly careful, but after almost cancelling a perfectly normal trade, slowing myself down felt like the better mistake to make.
That order quietly changed a few habits for me.
• I spend more time reading the merchant's profile than comparing who offers the best price.
• I read the payment instructions again even if I've traded hundreds of times before.
• If anything feels unusual, I keep the entire conversation inside the Binance P2P order and save the Order ID instead of assuming I'll remember everything later.
• If the payment hasn't actually reached my account, the Release button can always wait another minute.
Five extra seconds felt frustrating yesterday. Looking back, they were probably the safest five seconds in the whole trade.
In the last 24 hours small but consistent transfers going to 2 different cold wallets. One wallet has increased from 64M to 78M while the other went from 52M to 90M.
Transfers happening at regular intervals while the price continues to climb is noteworthy.
In 2022, BlackRock launched its private Bitcoin trust while retail was selling, then filed for a Spot ETF when almost everyone had given up on the market.
By the time the ETF was approved, Bitcoin pumped from $38,700 to $126,000
Retail bought after the news.
Now CLARITY keeps getting delayed.
What if Institutions want cheaper $BTC , before regulation opens the door for TRILLIONS to enter crypto?
What happened after I put out the analysis post: $TUT
A beautiful chart for those who want to gamble. Either trade this or play roulette, same thing.
CryptoZeno
·
--
A sudden surge in volume pushed $TUT price significantly higher. Currently trading around $0.20.
Let's look at the details:
24h futures volume: $2.2B, spot volume: $200M. OI is very elevated at $272M.
Total supply is 833.44M and fully in circulation. Top 10 holders control 92% of that supply. The largest holder after 2 days of accumulation is now Bitget's cold wallet, holding 16% of total supply. Binance wallets control 29% of supply.
Around 120M TUT was transferred to Bitget's cold wallet over the last 2 days. Safe to say it's front and center again in this kind of manipulative rally.
Overall Long/Short ratio is at 0.47 while the same metric for top traders shows 1.35. Small fish are trying to find the top while whales keep holding and adding to their longs. As a result small fish are fueling the rally. $9.36M liquidated in the last 24 hours with 90% being short positions.
Looking at whale orders, sell orders appear up to $0.36. During a drop the level where whales seem to want to defend the price looks like the $0.11 to $0.13 range. Those orders can be cancelled at any time of course.
With short positions continuing to build, this setup looks likely to continue but if we enter a downtrend $0.066 is a very likely destination. There's heavy cluster buildup below that level on the liq heatmap.