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CryptoZeno
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CryptoZeno

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The Breakout Trading Strategy I Use to Catch Big MovesIโ€™ve longed resistance and shorted support for 9 yearsโ€ฆ This is the exact opposite of what every trader tries to do. In this article, I will share my entire strategy so you can skip years of testing and losses. This is something you will want to bookmark, take notes on, and set time aside to think about. Lesson 1: The Only 2 Trading Strategies Before you can identify good momentum setups, you need to understand what momentum trading actually is. Momentum and mean reversion are opposite strategies based on opposite assumptions. The Two Trading Styles Momentum (where you take a trade betting on a continuation of the current trend)Mean Reversion (where you take a trade betting on a reversal of the current trend) One assumes strength continues; the other assumes strength exhausts. Letโ€™s consider this through a visual example. Suppose price is approaching a resistance level (in other words, a level where there was previously selling pressure, preventing the price from moving higher). Momentum assumes the level will break. Youโ€™re betting on continuation.Price approaches resistance, you buy, expecting it to push through and keep running.The level becomes support once broken. Mean reversion assumes the level will hold. Youโ€™re betting on rejection.Price approaches resistance, you short, expecting it to bounce back down.The level acts as a ceiling. Same chart. Same resistance level. Opposite strategies. There is no right or wrong. The key is to understand when you are in a momentum trade environment, such that momentum strategies are highly aligned. The next section shows you exactly how to identify when the environment favours momentum (my best strategy). Lesson 1 Summary There are 2 trading styles: momentum and mean reversionMean reversion bets levels will hold; momentum bets levels will breakOne is not better than the other; it depends entirely on the trade environment Lesson 2: Optimal Trade Environment Just opening a long every time price hits resistance won't make us any money. Without the right conditions, momentum dies immediately after the breakout. You enter. It reverses. You're stopped out. That's not bad luck, that's a bad trading environment. The Rowing Analogy Imagine youโ€™re rowing a boat. You either row against or with the current. One makes it easier to row while the other takes a lot more effort. Your boat, or rowing technique, didnโ€™t changeโ€ฆ Only your environment did. Trading is the same. Your strategy is your boat. Your optimal trade environment is the current. Now use this 3-filter checklist to ensure you only take trades where a breakout is likely (with the current). Filter 1: How Did Price Approach the Level? What you WANT: A slow, grinding staircase pattern approaching resistance.Each candle makes incremental progress.Higher lows are stacking up.Controlled, deliberate movement. What you DONโ€™T want: A fast vertical spike into resistance.Price shoots up in one or two large candles.After a spike, buyers' strength is depleted and price typically consolidates or reverses.This is exhaustion, not momentum. The staircase pattern shows sustained buying pressure building gradually. When this breaks through resistance, buyers are still engaged and ready to push further. Common mistake: Traders see a strong candle break resistance and assume momentum is strong. But these fast moves often reverse quickly. โ†’ Do this instead: Take momentum trades when price approaches resistance in a slow, grinding staircase over multiple candles. Real Trade Example: Slow clear grind into resistance showing an optimal โ€˜price approach to levelโ€™ for momentum. Filter 1: slow grindy staircase โœ… Filter 2: What Did Volume Look Like? Volume confirms whether the price movement has conviction behind it. What you WANT: Gradual increase in volume as price approaches resistanceThis pattern shows controlled, sustainable momentum. What you DONโ€™T want: Flat volume (no conviction) or sudden volume spikes (exhaustion).Flat volume means the move lacks participation.Volume spikes often mark climax points where momentum exhausts.Decreasing volume (why would price break out of resistance now, if volume was lower than before?) Volume should mirror the price pattern, steady and building, not erratic. This strategy works because momentum continuation is most likely when participation is sustained, supply is absorbed gradually, and structure remains intact. Real Trade Example: Around the time the grindy staircase begins to emerge, we see a slow, consistent increase in volume. Filter 1: slow grindy staircase โœ…Filter 2: clearly increasing volume โœ… Lastly, Filter 3: Moving Average Crossovers This filter distinguishes trending markets (good for momentum) from choppy, indecisive markets (bad for momentum). What you WANT to see: Moving averages with minimal crossovers. This indicates a directional trend. What you DONโ€™T want to see: Frequent crossovers. This signals chop and indecision. Fewer crossovers = cleaner trend or range = better momentum continuation. Use the 30SMMA (Smoothed Moving Average). โœ๏ธQuick Actionable Step: To add the 30SMMA on your charts: Search for the Smoothed Moving Average Indicator in TradingViewAdd it to your chartGo into settings and change the "Length" to "30" Real Trade Example: Filter 1 (Price Action): slow grindy staircase โœ… Filter 2 (Volume): clearly increasing volume โœ… Filter 3 (Crossovers): minimal MA crossovers โœ… ๐ŸŽ“Lesson 2 Summary Slow grinding staircase approaches have better follow-through than fast spikesVolume should be gradual (increasing or decreasing), not flat or spikingFewer MA crossovers indicate cleaner directional conditions for momentum Lesson 3: Identifying Setups Now you know what momentum is. You also know the optimal conditions for it. Next, you need to know where to execute these trades. Step 1: Draw Support and Resistance Levels Momentum trades happen at these key levels. You need to identify them consistently. I've already written an in-depth masterclass on how to set these levels. I'll link it at the end of this article. Common mistake: Traders draw levels randomly or inconsistently, leading to missed setups or false signals. Do this instead: Use my step-by-step approach at the end of this article. Step 2: Await Your Entry Trigger on the 1-Minute Chart Once youโ€™ve identified a resistance level on your primary timeframe, switch to the 1-minute chart for precise entry timing. Why 1-minute chart? You learn faster. More trades, more chart exposure and more oppurtunities to practice psychology. Iโ€™ve added a bonus guide on why you should be trading the 1-minute chart at the end of this article. Real Trade Example: Step 3: Three Filters Before entering, check the three filters from Section 2: Is price approaching resistance in a slow staircase pattern?Is volume gradually increasing or decreasing (not flat or spiking)?Are there minimal MA crossovers (not choppy)? If any filter fails, reduce your risk on the trade. Only take full risk on A-grade setups, not forcing trades in poor conditions. ๐ŸŽ“Lesson 3 Summary Draw levels using the ZCT masterclass approach at the end of this articleUse your entry trigger on the 1-minute timeframe: 2 candle closes above for confirmationCheck all three filters before entering, allocate risk and size accordingly Lesson 4: Strategy Logic: Stop Loss, and Take Profit You've drawn your levels. You've confirmed the setup aligns with optimal momentum conditions. Now you need precise execution. Entry timing, stop placement, and profit targets determine whether you capture the momentum move or get stopped out on a good setup. This is where most traders lose, not in analysis, but in execution. Step 4: Entry Trigger We have established to wait for two consecutive 1-minute candles to close fully above the resistance level. This confirms the level broke and momentum is continuing. Critical execution detail: After the second candle closes above resistance, place a limit order AT the resistance level (now acting as support), not above it. Price often pulls back slightly after breaking out. Your limit order gets filled on the pullback without chasing. Common mistake: Traders wait for confirmation, then market-buy above resistance as price runs away. They enter late with a wider stop and worse risk/reward. โ†’ Do this instead: Preset your limit order AT resistance after the second candle closes. Let price come back to you. Real Trade Example: Step 5: Stop Loss A swing low is: the lowest wick in a pullback. Your stop loss goes at the most recent swing low before the breakout. Common mistake: Traders place stops at the nearest swing low, even if itโ€™s only 0.3% away, leading to frequent stop-outs from normal volatility Do this instead: Always measure the distance of your stop loss using the ruler tool on TradingView. If itโ€™s less than 1%, use the next swing low down. Step 6: Take Profit 1R (Equal Distance to Stop) Your take profit target is 1R, the same distance as your stop loss, but in the profit direction If your stop loss is 1.982% away from entry, your target is also 1.982% away, but on the upside. This gives you a 1:1 risk/reward ratio. Why 1R? Itโ€™s conservative and achievable. Momentum trades often hit 1R quickly because the breakout has follow-through. Youโ€™re not trying to catch the entire move, youโ€™re taking a high-probability piece of it. Over time, as you get data in your journal, you can start extending your profit targets when you see how far your average winning trades go beyond 1R. This way, youโ€™re not guessing where to take profits, but following a systematic approach. Real Trade Example: ๐ŸŽ“Lesson 4 summary Enter after two 1-minute candle closes above resistance, using a limit order at prior resistance (now support) to avoid chasing price.Place stop losses at the most recent valid swing low, ensuring enough distance to avoid normal volatility and minor stop hunts.Set initial profit targets at 1R to capture high-probability momentum continuation in a repeatable, systematic way. Immediate Next Stepsโœ๏ธ: Read the Support and Resistance Masterclass to learn how to draw levels (shared at end of article)Look at 3 charts using the 3 filter checklist to identify a momentum trade environmentUse the strategy steps to enter your tradeGather 30 trades using this method, journalled and reviewed against the criteria ๐ŸŽ“ Final Summary Lesson 1: Momentum vs Mean Reversion Momentum trades bet that price will continue through a level, while mean reversion trades bet that a level will hold and reject price.Both strategies are valid, but performance depends entirely on matching the strategy to the correct trade environment. Understanding this distinction prevents applying breakout logic in conditions where it has no edge. Lesson 2: Optimal Trade Environment High-quality breakouts form when price approaches resistance in a slow, grinding staircase rather than fast vertical spikes.Volume should build gradually to confirm sustained participation, not remain flat or spike from exhaustion.Minimal moving average crossovers indicate cleaner directional conditions where momentum continuation is more likely. Lesson 3: Identifying Setups Momentum trades should be executed at consistently drawn support and resistance levels.Entries are triggered on the 1-minute chart using two consecutive candle closes above resistance for confirmation.All three environment filters must align before taking full risk; weaker conditions require reduced sizing or passing the trade. Lesson 4: Stop Loss and Take Profit Enter using a limit order at prior resistance (now support) after two confirmed 1-minute candle closes to avoid chasing price.Stop losses should be placed at the most recent valid swing low with enough distance to avoid normal volatility and minor stop hunts.Initial profit targets are set at 1R to capture high-probability momentum continuation in a repeatable way. ๐ŸŽ“What Changes From Here The next time price approaches resistance, you wonโ€™t have to guess if it will break out. Youโ€™ll know when a breakout has real momentum, when volume confirms it, and when conditions support follow-through. Youโ€™ll also execute with defined entries, stops, and targets. #CryptoZeno #tradingStrategy

The Breakout Trading Strategy I Use to Catch Big Moves

Iโ€™ve longed resistance and shorted support for 9 yearsโ€ฆ This is the exact opposite of what every trader tries to do.
In this article, I will share my entire strategy so you can skip years of testing and losses.
This is something you will want to bookmark, take notes on, and set time aside to think about.
Lesson 1: The Only 2 Trading Strategies
Before you can identify good momentum setups, you need to understand what momentum trading actually is.
Momentum and mean reversion are opposite strategies based on opposite assumptions.
The Two Trading Styles
Momentum (where you take a trade betting on a continuation of the current trend)Mean Reversion (where you take a trade betting on a reversal of the current trend)
One assumes strength continues; the other assumes strength exhausts.
Letโ€™s consider this through a visual example.
Suppose price is approaching a resistance level (in other words, a level where there was previously selling pressure, preventing the price from moving higher).
Momentum assumes the level will break.
Youโ€™re betting on continuation.Price approaches resistance, you buy, expecting it to push through and keep running.The level becomes support once broken.
Mean reversion assumes the level will hold.
Youโ€™re betting on rejection.Price approaches resistance, you short, expecting it to bounce back down.The level acts as a ceiling.
Same chart. Same resistance level. Opposite strategies.
There is no right or wrong. The key is to understand when you are in a momentum trade environment, such that momentum strategies are highly aligned.
The next section shows you exactly how to identify when the environment favours momentum (my best strategy).
Lesson 1 Summary
There are 2 trading styles: momentum and mean reversionMean reversion bets levels will hold; momentum bets levels will breakOne is not better than the other; it depends entirely on the trade environment
Lesson 2: Optimal Trade Environment
Just opening a long every time price hits resistance won't make us any money.
Without the right conditions, momentum dies immediately after the breakout.
You enter. It reverses. You're stopped out.
That's not bad luck, that's a bad trading environment.
The Rowing Analogy
Imagine youโ€™re rowing a boat.
You either row against or with the current.
One makes it easier to row while the other takes a lot more effort.
Your boat, or rowing technique, didnโ€™t changeโ€ฆ Only your environment did.
Trading is the same.
Your strategy is your boat.
Your optimal trade environment is the current.
Now use this 3-filter checklist to ensure you only take trades where a breakout is likely (with the current).
Filter 1: How Did Price Approach the Level?
What you WANT:
A slow, grinding staircase pattern approaching resistance.Each candle makes incremental progress.Higher lows are stacking up.Controlled, deliberate movement.
What you DONโ€™T want:
A fast vertical spike into resistance.Price shoots up in one or two large candles.After a spike, buyers' strength is depleted and price typically consolidates or reverses.This is exhaustion, not momentum.
The staircase pattern shows sustained buying pressure building gradually. When this breaks through resistance, buyers are still engaged and ready to push further.
Common mistake: Traders see a strong candle break resistance and assume momentum is strong. But these fast moves often reverse quickly.
โ†’ Do this instead: Take momentum trades when price approaches resistance in a slow, grinding staircase over multiple candles.
Real Trade Example:
Slow clear grind into resistance showing an optimal โ€˜price approach to levelโ€™ for momentum.
Filter 1: slow grindy staircase โœ…
Filter 2: What Did Volume Look Like?
Volume confirms whether the price movement has conviction behind it.
What you WANT:
Gradual increase in volume as price approaches resistanceThis pattern shows controlled, sustainable momentum.
What you DONโ€™T want:
Flat volume (no conviction) or sudden volume spikes (exhaustion).Flat volume means the move lacks participation.Volume spikes often mark climax points where momentum exhausts.Decreasing volume (why would price break out of resistance now, if volume was lower than before?)
Volume should mirror the price pattern, steady and building, not erratic.
This strategy works because momentum continuation is most likely when participation is sustained, supply is absorbed gradually, and structure remains intact.
Real Trade Example:
Around the time the grindy staircase begins to emerge, we see a slow, consistent increase in volume.
Filter 1: slow grindy staircase โœ…Filter 2: clearly increasing volume โœ…
Lastly,
Filter 3: Moving Average Crossovers
This filter distinguishes trending markets (good for momentum) from choppy, indecisive markets (bad for momentum).
What you WANT to see: Moving averages with minimal crossovers. This indicates a directional trend.
What you DONโ€™T want to see: Frequent crossovers. This signals chop and indecision.
Fewer crossovers = cleaner trend or range = better momentum continuation.
Use the 30SMMA (Smoothed Moving Average).
โœ๏ธQuick Actionable Step:
To add the 30SMMA on your charts:
Search for the Smoothed Moving Average Indicator in TradingViewAdd it to your chartGo into settings and change the "Length" to "30"
Real Trade Example:
Filter 1 (Price Action): slow grindy staircase โœ…
Filter 2 (Volume): clearly increasing volume โœ…
Filter 3 (Crossovers): minimal MA crossovers โœ…
๐ŸŽ“Lesson 2 Summary
Slow grinding staircase approaches have better follow-through than fast spikesVolume should be gradual (increasing or decreasing), not flat or spikingFewer MA crossovers indicate cleaner directional conditions for momentum
Lesson 3: Identifying Setups
Now you know what momentum is.
You also know the optimal conditions for it.
Next, you need to know where to execute these trades.
Step 1: Draw Support and Resistance Levels
Momentum trades happen at these key levels. You need to identify them consistently.
I've already written an in-depth masterclass on how to set these levels. I'll link it at the end of this article.
Common mistake: Traders draw levels randomly or inconsistently, leading to missed setups or false signals.
Do this instead: Use my step-by-step approach at the end of this article.
Step 2: Await Your Entry Trigger on the 1-Minute Chart
Once youโ€™ve identified a resistance level on your primary timeframe, switch to the 1-minute chart for precise entry timing.
Why 1-minute chart?
You learn faster.
More trades, more chart exposure and more oppurtunities to practice psychology.
Iโ€™ve added a bonus guide on why you should be trading the 1-minute chart at the end of this article.
Real Trade Example:
Step 3: Three Filters
Before entering, check the three filters from Section 2:
Is price approaching resistance in a slow staircase pattern?Is volume gradually increasing or decreasing (not flat or spiking)?Are there minimal MA crossovers (not choppy)?
If any filter fails, reduce your risk on the trade. Only take full risk on A-grade setups, not forcing trades in poor conditions.
๐ŸŽ“Lesson 3 Summary
Draw levels using the ZCT masterclass approach at the end of this articleUse your entry trigger on the 1-minute timeframe: 2 candle closes above for confirmationCheck all three filters before entering, allocate risk and size accordingly
Lesson 4: Strategy Logic: Stop Loss, and Take Profit
You've drawn your levels. You've confirmed the setup aligns with optimal momentum conditions.
Now you need precise execution.
Entry timing, stop placement, and profit targets determine whether you capture the momentum move or get stopped out on a good setup.
This is where most traders lose, not in analysis, but in execution.
Step 4: Entry Trigger
We have established to wait for two consecutive 1-minute candles to close fully above the resistance level. This confirms the level broke and momentum is continuing.
Critical execution detail: After the second candle closes above resistance, place a limit order AT the resistance level (now acting as support), not above it. Price often pulls back slightly after breaking out. Your limit order gets filled on the pullback without chasing.
Common mistake: Traders wait for confirmation, then market-buy above resistance as price runs away. They enter late with a wider stop and worse risk/reward.
โ†’ Do this instead: Preset your limit order AT resistance after the second candle closes. Let price come back to you.
Real Trade Example:
Step 5: Stop Loss
A swing low is:
the lowest wick in a pullback.
Your stop loss goes at the most recent swing low before the breakout.
Common mistake: Traders place stops at the nearest swing low, even if itโ€™s only 0.3% away, leading to frequent stop-outs from normal volatility
Do this instead: Always measure the distance of your stop loss using the ruler tool on TradingView. If itโ€™s less than 1%, use the next swing low down.
Step 6: Take Profit 1R (Equal Distance to Stop)
Your take profit target is 1R, the same distance as your stop loss, but in the profit direction
If your stop loss is 1.982% away from entry, your target is also 1.982% away, but on the upside. This gives you a 1:1 risk/reward ratio.
Why 1R? Itโ€™s conservative and achievable. Momentum trades often hit 1R quickly because the breakout has follow-through. Youโ€™re not trying to catch the entire move, youโ€™re taking a high-probability piece of it.
Over time, as you get data in your journal, you can start extending your profit targets when you see how far your average winning trades go beyond 1R. This way, youโ€™re not guessing where to take profits, but following a systematic approach.
Real Trade Example:
๐ŸŽ“Lesson 4 summary
Enter after two 1-minute candle closes above resistance, using a limit order at prior resistance (now support) to avoid chasing price.Place stop losses at the most recent valid swing low, ensuring enough distance to avoid normal volatility and minor stop hunts.Set initial profit targets at 1R to capture high-probability momentum continuation in a repeatable, systematic way.
Immediate Next Stepsโœ๏ธ:
Read the Support and Resistance Masterclass to learn how to draw levels (shared at end of article)Look at 3 charts using the 3 filter checklist to identify a momentum trade environmentUse the strategy steps to enter your tradeGather 30 trades using this method, journalled and reviewed against the criteria
๐ŸŽ“ Final Summary
Lesson 1: Momentum vs Mean Reversion
Momentum trades bet that price will continue through a level, while mean reversion trades bet that a level will hold and reject price.Both strategies are valid, but performance depends entirely on matching the strategy to the correct trade environment.
Understanding this distinction prevents applying breakout logic in conditions where it has no edge.
Lesson 2: Optimal Trade Environment
High-quality breakouts form when price approaches resistance in a slow, grinding staircase rather than fast vertical spikes.Volume should build gradually to confirm sustained participation, not remain flat or spike from exhaustion.Minimal moving average crossovers indicate cleaner directional conditions where momentum continuation is more likely.
Lesson 3: Identifying Setups
Momentum trades should be executed at consistently drawn support and resistance levels.Entries are triggered on the 1-minute chart using two consecutive candle closes above resistance for confirmation.All three environment filters must align before taking full risk; weaker conditions require reduced sizing or passing the trade.
Lesson 4: Stop Loss and Take Profit
Enter using a limit order at prior resistance (now support) after two confirmed 1-minute candle closes to avoid chasing price.Stop losses should be placed at the most recent valid swing low with enough distance to avoid normal volatility and minor stop hunts.Initial profit targets are set at 1R to capture high-probability momentum continuation in a repeatable way.
๐ŸŽ“What Changes From Here
The next time price approaches resistance, you wonโ€™t have to guess if it will break out.
Youโ€™ll know when a breakout has real momentum, when volume confirms it, and when conditions support follow-through.
Youโ€™ll also execute with defined entries, stops, and targets.
#CryptoZeno #tradingStrategy
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Is it all over for $HEI {future}(HEIUSDT) Honestly there's nothing negative onchain yet. Transfers to Binance cold wallet are still being held. Looking at L/S ratio, top traders are still holding longs while small fish are slowly starting to flip to shorts. Volume isn't as high as in previous days. The most notable zone on the liq heatmap is $0.29 to $0.30. On the downside there are small clusters around $0.12 to $0.14. The cluster size at $0.30 is much larger. We're talking about a $12M mcap token. With a volume surge everything can change very fast.
Is it all over for $HEI

Honestly there's nothing negative onchain yet. Transfers to Binance cold wallet are still being held. Looking at L/S ratio, top traders are still holding longs while small fish are slowly starting to flip to shorts.

Volume isn't as high as in previous days. The most notable zone on the liq heatmap is $0.29 to $0.30. On the downside there are small clusters around $0.12 to $0.14. The cluster size at $0.30 is much larger.

We're talking about a $12M mcap token. With a volume surge everything can change very fast.
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$BTC Looks like the downside liquidity is getting taken first... We've seen a clear rejection off the previous weekly high with a large red candle on the daily. My next area of interest sits between the 0.618 and 0.5 fib level around $64k. If selling pressure continues, we'll most likely push through this region and target the FVG imbalance near $62.8k. {future}(BTCUSDT)
$BTC Looks like the downside liquidity is getting taken first...

We've seen a clear rejection off the previous weekly high with a large red candle on the daily.

My next area of interest sits between the 0.618 and 0.5 fib level around $64k.

If selling pressure continues, we'll most likely push through this region and target the FVG imbalance near $62.8k.
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$BTC Local tops and bottoms almost always form through multiple liquidity sweeps. Itโ€™s textbook market psychology. These are the areas where the majority of stops are positioned. People expect the range to break, so price sweeps the liquidity, traps participants, and then reclaims the range becuase its usually the period everyone begins to lower their targets. Once the reclaim happens, people short the entire move back up because theyโ€™ve been fxcked the entire move down. Theyโ€™re constantly reacting instead of anticipating, executing at the worst possible time. Study. Liquidity gets swept. The range gets reclaimed. And almost every time, conviction is at its lowest during the deviation. {future}(BTCUSDT)
$BTC Local tops and bottoms almost always form through multiple liquidity sweeps.

Itโ€™s textbook market psychology. These are the areas where the majority of stops are positioned. People expect the range to break, so price sweeps the liquidity, traps participants, and then reclaims the range becuase its usually the period everyone begins to lower their targets.

Once the reclaim happens, people short the entire move back up because theyโ€™ve been fxcked the entire move down. Theyโ€™re constantly reacting instead of anticipating, executing at the worst possible time.

Study. Liquidity gets swept. The range gets reclaimed. And almost every time, conviction is at its lowest during the deviation.
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$ETH We have been inside this range for over three weeks now, and theoretically, the breakout could be more ideal towards the downside given that this is starting to look like a classic Wyckoff Distribution Schematic. However, given that BTC still has an Imbalance around the 67k zone which I'm expecting to be filled, it would make more sense for us to see a bullish breakout from this range. ETH Dominance is also breaking out of a falling wedge/downtrend channel, which means we could see more volume coming into ETH over the next few weeks. Hence why I'm leaning towards a bullish breakout here and once we reclaim the top of this range on the LTF, I'm expecting a push into the 2141 region. My HTF POI on ETH is the Untapped Monthly FVG at 2474, which I ultimately expect to be taken out in a 5-Wave Impulse fashion after a small rejection from the 2141 region. {future}(ETHUSDT)
$ETH We have been inside this range for over three weeks now, and theoretically, the breakout could be more ideal towards the downside given that this is starting to look like a classic Wyckoff Distribution Schematic.

However, given that BTC still has an Imbalance around the 67k zone which I'm expecting to be filled, it would make more sense for us to see a bullish breakout from this range.

ETH Dominance is also breaking out of a falling wedge/downtrend channel, which means we could see more volume coming into ETH over the next few weeks.

Hence why I'm leaning towards a bullish breakout here and once we reclaim the top of this range on the LTF, I'm expecting a push into the 2141 region.

My HTF POI on ETH is the Untapped Monthly FVG at 2474, which I ultimately expect to be taken out in a 5-Wave Impulse fashion after a small rejection from the 2141 region.
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The Fed is about to get the data it needs this week: 1. Tuesday, Existing Home Sales A key read on the housing market. A weak print could signal that high borrowing costs are continuing to pressure housing demand. 2. Wednesday, CPI The biggest event of the week. A hotter-than-expected inflation data could push rate-cut expectations lower and reignite concerns about tighter Fed policy. 3. Thursday, PPI Producer prices offer an early look at pipeline inflation, so a hot number pushes hike odds up further. 4. Thursday, Initial Jobless Claims Rising claims would signal weakening employment conditions, while a surprisingly low print could support the case for a more resilient economy. 5. Friday, Retail Sales One of the most important consumer-health indicators. A weak number would raise concerns about slowing household spending and economic growth. 6. Friday, Michigan Consumer Sentiment Tracks consumer confidence and inflation expectations. A rise in long-term inflation expectations could complicate the Fedโ€™s path toward easing policy.
The Fed is about to get the data it needs this week:

1. Tuesday, Existing Home Sales

A key read on the housing market. A weak print could signal that high borrowing costs are continuing to pressure housing demand.

2. Wednesday, CPI

The biggest event of the week. A hotter-than-expected inflation data could push rate-cut expectations lower and reignite concerns about tighter Fed policy.

3. Thursday, PPI

Producer prices offer an early look at pipeline inflation, so a hot number pushes hike odds up further.

4. Thursday, Initial Jobless Claims

Rising claims would signal weakening employment conditions, while a surprisingly low print could support the case for a more resilient economy.

5. Friday, Retail Sales

One of the most important consumer-health indicators. A weak number would raise concerns about slowing household spending and economic growth.

6. Friday, Michigan Consumer Sentiment

Tracks consumer confidence and inflation expectations. A rise in long-term inflation expectations could complicate the Fedโ€™s path toward easing policy.
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Bitcoin bear market is now 600 DAYS OLD when you look at BTC priced in gold! Something fascinating is that all three previous gold-denominated cycle bottoms arrived in an absurdly tight ~21-day window. This cycle we have so far seen the trough on day 433. If that holds, that'll mean all cycle bottoms arrived in a 36-day window. We live in a simulation. Using the exact Day 600 point from the three prior completed BTC/gold bear markets, median forward BTC/USD returns were: 1 month: โˆ’13.6% 3 months: โˆ’0.3% 6 months: +34.0% 9 months: +51.0% 12 months: +122.0% 18 months: +285.1% 24 months: +307.9% From the BTC print of $65,245, those median returns correspond to roughly $87K in 6 months, $99K in 9 months, $145K in 12 months, $251K in 18 months, and $266K in 24 months. {future}(BTCUSDT)
Bitcoin bear market is now 600 DAYS OLD when you look at BTC priced in gold!

Something fascinating is that all three previous gold-denominated cycle bottoms arrived in an absurdly tight ~21-day window.

This cycle we have so far seen the trough on day 433.

If that holds, that'll mean all cycle bottoms arrived in a 36-day window.

We live in a simulation.

Using the exact Day 600 point from the three prior completed BTC/gold bear markets, median forward BTC/USD returns were:

1 month: โˆ’13.6%
3 months: โˆ’0.3%
6 months: +34.0%
9 months: +51.0%
12 months: +122.0%
18 months: +285.1%
24 months: +307.9%

From the BTC print of $65,245, those median returns correspond to roughly $87K in 6 months, $99K in 9 months, $145K in 12 months, $251K in 18 months, and $266K in 24 months.
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I Almost Cancelled A Binance P2P Order Five Seconds Too Early Yesterday I nearly cancelled a Binance P2P order because I thought the buyer had disappeared. The countdown was almost over, my bank account was still quiet, and I had already convinced myself the payment wasn't coming. I even moved my finger toward Cancel. Then, just a few seconds later, the transfer arrived. Nothing suspicious had happened. The buyer wasn't trying to waste my time. The bank was simply slower than the countdown inside my head. I still checked the sender's name against the one shown in the Binance P2P order before releasing the USDT. Maybe I was being overly careful, but after almost cancelling a perfectly normal trade, slowing myself down felt like the better mistake to make. That order quietly changed a few habits for me. โ€ข I spend more time reading the merchant's profile than comparing who offers the best price. โ€ข I read the payment instructions again even if I've traded hundreds of times before. โ€ข If anything feels unusual, I keep the entire conversation inside the Binance P2P order and save the Order ID instead of assuming I'll remember everything later. โ€ข If the payment hasn't actually reached my account, the Release button can always wait another minute. Five extra seconds felt frustrating yesterday. Looking back, they were probably the safest five seconds in the whole trade. @Binance_Vietnam #BinanceP2PAnToan
I Almost Cancelled A Binance P2P Order Five Seconds Too Early

Yesterday I nearly cancelled a Binance P2P order because I thought the buyer had disappeared.

The countdown was almost over, my bank account was still quiet, and I had already convinced myself the payment wasn't coming. I even moved my finger toward Cancel. Then, just a few seconds later, the transfer arrived.

Nothing suspicious had happened. The buyer wasn't trying to waste my time. The bank was simply slower than the countdown inside my head.

I still checked the sender's name against the one shown in the Binance P2P order before releasing the USDT. Maybe I was being overly careful, but after almost cancelling a perfectly normal trade, slowing myself down felt like the better mistake to make.

That order quietly changed a few habits for me.

โ€ข I spend more time reading the merchant's profile than comparing who offers the best price.

โ€ข I read the payment instructions again even if I've traded hundreds of times before.

โ€ข If anything feels unusual, I keep the entire conversation inside the Binance P2P order and save the Order ID instead of assuming I'll remember everything later.

โ€ข If the payment hasn't actually reached my account, the Release button can always wait another minute.

Five extra seconds felt frustrating yesterday.
Looking back, they were probably the safest five seconds in the whole trade.

@Binance Vietnam #BinanceP2PAnToan
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Binance cold wallet transfers - $BMT {future}(BMTUSDT) In the last 24 hours small but consistent transfers going to 2 different cold wallets. One wallet has increased from 64M to 78M while the other went from 52M to 90M. Transfers happening at regular intervals while the price continues to climb is noteworthy.
Binance cold wallet transfers - $BMT

In the last 24 hours small but consistent transfers going to 2 different cold wallets. One wallet has increased from 64M to 78M while the other went from 52M to 90M.

Transfers happening at regular intervals while the price continues to climb is noteworthy.
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$BTC Price has started pumping slowly and is following our plan, Expecting the sweep of 65.4k in the next couple hours. {future}(BTCUSDT)
$BTC Price has started pumping slowly and is following our plan,

Expecting the sweep of 65.4k in the next couple hours.
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The CLARITY delay could be bullish. Remember the BlackRock Spot ETF playbook? In 2022, BlackRock launched its private Bitcoin trust while retail was selling, then filed for a Spot ETF when almost everyone had given up on the market. By the time the ETF was approved, Bitcoin pumped from $38,700 to $126,000 Retail bought after the news. Now CLARITY keeps getting delayed. What if Institutions want cheaper $BTC , before regulation opens the door for TRILLIONS to enter crypto? {future}(BTCUSDT)
The CLARITY delay could be bullish.

Remember the BlackRock Spot ETF playbook?

In 2022, BlackRock launched its private Bitcoin trust while retail was selling, then filed for a Spot ETF when almost everyone had given up on the market.

By the time the ETF was approved, Bitcoin pumped from $38,700 to $126,000

Retail bought after the news.

Now CLARITY keeps getting delayed.

What if Institutions want cheaper $BTC , before regulation opens the door for TRILLIONS to enter crypto?
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When $BTC deviates below the 1M 50EMA {future}(BTCUSDT) you simply market buy without hesitation.
When $BTC deviates below the 1M 50EMA

you simply market buy without hesitation.
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$BTC Liquidation Continues to Build Low leverage (exit liquidity) intensifying between 66k and 68k. {future}(BTCUSDT)
$BTC Liquidation Continues to Build

Low leverage (exit liquidity) intensifying between 66k and 68k.
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Someone bought 2,000 $ETH for just $620 in 2015. Held it for 11 years and didn't sell despite several big crashes. Today, he moved his holdings, which are now worth $3,800,000. A 6,130x return by HODLing. {future}(ETHUSDT)
Someone bought 2,000 $ETH for just $620 in 2015.

Held it for 11 years and didn't sell despite several big crashes.

Today, he moved his holdings, which are now worth $3,800,000.

A 6,130x return by HODLing.
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What happened after I put out the analysis post: $TUT {future}(TUTUSDT) A beautiful chart for those who want to gamble. Either trade this or play roulette, same thing.
What happened after I put out the analysis post: $TUT

A beautiful chart for those who want to gamble. Either trade this or play roulette, same thing.
CryptoZeno
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A sudden surge in volume pushed $TUT price significantly higher. Currently trading around $0.20.


Let's look at the details:

24h futures volume: $2.2B, spot volume: $200M. OI is very elevated at $272M.

Total supply is 833.44M and fully in circulation. Top 10 holders control 92% of that supply. The largest holder after 2 days of accumulation is now Bitget's cold wallet, holding 16% of total supply. Binance wallets control 29% of supply.

Around 120M TUT was transferred to Bitget's cold wallet over the last 2 days. Safe to say it's front and center again in this kind of manipulative rally.

Overall Long/Short ratio is at 0.47 while the same metric for top traders shows 1.35. Small fish are trying to find the top while whales keep holding and adding to their longs. As a result small fish are fueling the rally. $9.36M liquidated in the last 24 hours with 90% being short positions.

Looking at whale orders, sell orders appear up to $0.36. During a drop the level where whales seem to want to defend the price looks like the $0.11 to $0.13 range. Those orders can be cancelled at any time of course.

With short positions continuing to build, this setup looks likely to continue but if we enter a downtrend $0.066 is a very likely destination. There's heavy cluster buildup below that level on the liq heatmap.
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There had been $BTW accumulation in Bitget's cold wallet for a while. {future}(BTWUSDT) About a few minutes ago 5M BTW was moved to the hot wallet.
There had been $BTW accumulation in Bitget's cold wallet for a while.

About a few minutes ago 5M BTW was moved to the hot wallet.
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A small drop followed the cold wallet outflow. If it continues a drop to the $0.11 to $0.12 range is very likely. $BTW {future}(BTWUSDT) In a more severe scenario $0.046 could be the final target. A small drop followed the cold wallet outflow. If it continues a drop to the $0.11 to $0.12 range is very likely.
A small drop followed the cold wallet outflow. If it continues a drop to the $0.11 to $0.12 range is very likely. $BTW

In a more severe scenario $0.046 could be the final target.

A small drop followed the cold wallet outflow. If it continues a drop to the $0.11 to $0.12 range is very likely.
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$BTC Over the past, price has filled every mFVG, And now we have one one above us again, everytime we created the mFVG above us in this bear market, It was tapped into and gave a volatile rejection from there. Usually, we tap into such levels, on Monthly Open and we are seeing the same stuff happening here too. I won't be surprised if price pumped into that mFVG later the upcoming weeks. Here's my playbook on how I am gonna trade it. First, I am looking for a rejection after sweeping the 65.4k > dump into 63.8k gap. If that gap holds, I will look for long setups from there, I usually go for 1:3, so I won't hold it all the way to 67k ofcourse, but I will certainly be looking for the break above to 67-68k. If we get the break above and tap into that mFVG, I am gonna be looking for swing shorts from there back to 60-61k. Also, it's very possible that after sweeping 65.4k, we might just keep on dumping to 60-61k. But the mFVG has a higher probability of playing out, So I will stick to it and also, Take profits on the trades time to time. {future}(BTCUSDT)
$BTC Over the past, price has filled every mFVG,

And now we have one one above us again, everytime we created the mFVG above us in this bear market,

It was tapped into and gave a volatile rejection from there.

Usually, we tap into such levels, on Monthly Open and we are seeing the same stuff happening here too.

I won't be surprised if price pumped into that mFVG later the upcoming weeks.

Here's my playbook on how I am gonna trade it.

First, I am looking for a rejection after sweeping the 65.4k > dump into 63.8k gap.

If that gap holds, I will look for long setups from there,

I usually go for 1:3, so I won't hold it all the way to 67k ofcourse, but I will certainly be looking for the break above to 67-68k.

If we get the break above and tap into that mFVG,

I am gonna be looking for swing shorts from there back to 60-61k.

Also, it's very possible that after sweeping 65.4k, we might just keep on dumping to 60-61k.

But the mFVG has a higher probability of playing out, So I will stick to it and also, Take profits on the trades time to time.
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A sudden surge in volume pushed $TUT price significantly higher. Currently trading around $0.20. {future}(TUTUSDT) Let's look at the details: 24h futures volume: $2.2B, spot volume: $200M. OI is very elevated at $272M. Total supply is 833.44M and fully in circulation. Top 10 holders control 92% of that supply. The largest holder after 2 days of accumulation is now Bitget's cold wallet, holding 16% of total supply. Binance wallets control 29% of supply. Around 120M TUT was transferred to Bitget's cold wallet over the last 2 days. Safe to say it's front and center again in this kind of manipulative rally. Overall Long/Short ratio is at 0.47 while the same metric for top traders shows 1.35. Small fish are trying to find the top while whales keep holding and adding to their longs. As a result small fish are fueling the rally. $9.36M liquidated in the last 24 hours with 90% being short positions. Looking at whale orders, sell orders appear up to $0.36. During a drop the level where whales seem to want to defend the price looks like the $0.11 to $0.13 range. Those orders can be cancelled at any time of course. With short positions continuing to build, this setup looks likely to continue but if we enter a downtrend $0.066 is a very likely destination. There's heavy cluster buildup below that level on the liq heatmap.
A sudden surge in volume pushed $TUT price significantly higher. Currently trading around $0.20.

Let's look at the details:

24h futures volume: $2.2B, spot volume: $200M. OI is very elevated at $272M.

Total supply is 833.44M and fully in circulation. Top 10 holders control 92% of that supply. The largest holder after 2 days of accumulation is now Bitget's cold wallet, holding 16% of total supply. Binance wallets control 29% of supply.

Around 120M TUT was transferred to Bitget's cold wallet over the last 2 days. Safe to say it's front and center again in this kind of manipulative rally.

Overall Long/Short ratio is at 0.47 while the same metric for top traders shows 1.35. Small fish are trying to find the top while whales keep holding and adding to their longs. As a result small fish are fueling the rally. $9.36M liquidated in the last 24 hours with 90% being short positions.

Looking at whale orders, sell orders appear up to $0.36. During a drop the level where whales seem to want to defend the price looks like the $0.11 to $0.13 range. Those orders can be cancelled at any time of course.

With short positions continuing to build, this setup looks likely to continue but if we enter a downtrend $0.066 is a very likely destination. There's heavy cluster buildup below that level on the liq heatmap.
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My Phone Said The Money Was There My Bank Said Otherwise. A small thing happened during one of my Binance P2P trades that stayed in my head much longer than I expected. My banking app sent a payment notification almost immediately. I glanced at it, looked back at the order, and my hand was already moving toward Release. Out of habit, I opened the banking app anyway. The balance hadn't changed. Around half a minute later, the money finally appeared. A few days later, the same thing happened again. This time I simply waited for the balance to update, checked that the sender's name matched the verified details shown in the Binance P2P order, and then completed the trade. The extra wait was less than a minute, but I finished without wondering whether I had rushed the last step. I also caught myself thinking about what I would do if, during that delay, someone suddenly asked me to continue the conversation on Telegram or sent different payment details. I'd probably stop the trade right there. I'd rather keep the chat, payment information, and Order ID inside the Binance P2P order where an Appeal can review the whole timeline if something ever goes wrong, instead of trying to explain scattered screenshots afterward. Maybe my bank was just slower than usual that day. Even so, every time a payment notification appears now, I still look at my account balance before I look at the Release button. @Binance_Vietnam #BinanceP2PAnToan
My Phone Said The Money Was There My Bank Said Otherwise.

A small thing happened during one of my Binance P2P trades that stayed in my head much longer than I expected.

My banking app sent a payment notification almost immediately. I glanced at it, looked back at the order, and my hand was already moving toward Release. Out of habit, I opened the banking app anyway. The balance hadn't changed. Around half a minute later, the money finally appeared.

A few days later, the same thing happened again. This time I simply waited for the balance to update, checked that the sender's name matched the verified details shown in the Binance P2P order, and then completed the trade. The extra wait was less than a minute, but I finished without wondering whether I had rushed the last step.

I also caught myself thinking about what I would do if, during that delay, someone suddenly asked me to continue the conversation on Telegram or sent different payment details. I'd probably stop the trade right there. I'd rather keep the chat, payment information, and Order ID inside the Binance P2P order where an Appeal can review the whole timeline if something ever goes wrong, instead of trying to explain scattered screenshots afterward.

Maybe my bank was just slower than usual that day. Even so, every time a payment notification appears now, I still look at my account balance before I look at the Release button.

@Binance Vietnam #BinanceP2PAnToan
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