海盗鸭

The divide in the market over the attack on the Kuwait base is not about whether the strike happened, but about the gap between what was claimed and what was confirmed. After the U.S. launched a new round of airstrikes on targets of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, the Revolutionary Guard claimed it had used missiles and drones to strike the U.S. command area at Kuwait's Ali Al Salem Air Base, saying that “multiple U.S. personnel were killed,” that a drone hangar was burned down, and that the attack was carried out in sync with actions against U.S. bases in Jordan, Bahrain, and Erbil. The next day, Iran's military announced strikes on the communications systems, equipment depot, and hangars at Kuwait's Ahmad Al Jaber Base, as well as the radar at the Al Minhad Base in the UAE. But the Kuwaiti government only acknowledged that air defenses fired in the early hours to intercept the attack, and reported no casualties or property damage. The U.S. also did not confirm any personnel losses at any of the bases mentioned in the two rounds of claims. That gap in messaging is the source of volatility: the bullish camp on oil prices takes Iran's claimed results as evidence of escalation, believing that retaliation is spreading from Iraq and Jordan to Kuwait and the UAE in the Gulf, and that a cutoff in the Strait of Hormuz is only a matter of time; the bearish camp points out that Iran's retaliation this time targeted U.S. bases rather than shipping, while on Tuesday the U.S. escorted 40 merchant ships and about 18 million barrels of crude passed through the strait, with the White House saying traffic had already returned close to pre-war levels. The supply-cut narrative lacks data support, and the risk premium will eventually fade. Both sides have a point; the key is which signal gets confirmed first. What really needs close attention are three things: whether the U.S. releases a casualty assessment and escalates its response, which would be the clearest trigger for escalation; actual traffic volume through the Strait of Hormuz and tanker insurance premiums, which are more honest than any statement; and whether Iran shifts its focus toward Israel or Saudi oil facilities. If none of these three signals move, the war premium in oil prices is just hanging there; if any one is confirmed, risk assets will need to be repriced. #IranMissileDroneAttackKuwaitBase

Shenzhen school uniforms have made the trending list, and netizens are all shouting 'so good'—what’s good is not the looks, but the way it works: all primary and secondary schools in the city use a uniform blue-and-white sports style. Schools do not take part in design, bidding, or sales; parents buy them themselves from supermarkets, stationery stores, or even delivery platforms. The cheap ones cost less than 20 yuan, and there’s no need to buy them again when moving up to the next school or transferring.

In many places, the school-uniform ecosystem is quite different: each school has its own style, the school handles bidding, the price is high and the quality is poor, and there is still room for利益输送. Shenzhen’s approach is to reduce the power involved: the education bureau only sets standards and supervises quality. Each uniform has a regulatory code for traceability, more than a hundred companies compete on the same stage, and parents vote with their feet.

Some people complain that a unified style suppresses individuality. That’s only half true—school uniforms are first and foremost clothes, and only secondarily a symbol. When school uniforms are tied to an interest chain, what children wear is actually the parents’ frustration. Do you think this homework of 'unified standards + open market + strict supervision' can be copied by other cities? How much does a set of school uniforms cost where you live?#深圳校服

CFTC asks the court to dismiss CME's lawsuit. This case is the best example for understanding the direction of U.S. crypto derivatives regulation. Here's the background: On May 29 this year, the CFTC approved Kalshi to list Bitcoin perpetual contracts and classified them as “futures,” while also stating that other designated contract markets (DCMs) could likewise list similar products — effectively opening a regulatory door for “crypto perpetuals = futures” for the first time; on June 18, CME sued the CFTC in federal court in Washington, D.C., with the core argument that perpetual contracts should be classified as “swaps” under the Commodity Exchange Act and the Dodd-Frank Act, and that the CFTC sidestepped the regulatory classification in order to approve them, effectively allowing a new competitor into its own retail futures turf. On September 2, the CFTC filed a motion to dismiss, with layered arguments: first, CME lacks standing — as a DCM itself, it could already list perpetuals, so the alleged competitive harm is “self-inflicted,” and CME had publicly said customers were not asking for such products; second, the data does not support the claim of harm — CME's $BTC - and $ETH -related futures trading volumes in both June and August were higher than in May, the month the approval was granted; third, even if perpetuals were reclassified as swaps, platforms like Kalshi could still continue offering them under the new classification, so CME's alleged harm still would not hold up; the CFTC also added that this lawsuit turns the Commodity Exchange Act's legislative purpose of “encouraging innovation and fair competition” on its head. Why does this matter? The classification dispute determines which channel U.S. crypto perpetuals will take: if they remain classified as futures, more DCMs will follow; if they are ruled swaps, they will have to enter a stricter swap regulatory framework. Next, watch for CME's deadline to file its opposition on October 2, and the court's view on the standing hurdle. #CFTCrequestsdismissalofCMEperpetuallawsuit

Zhejiang’s torrential rain hit the trending searches and also popularized a vivid phrase — “off-the-mountain bull-hitting” severe rain. While the center of Typhoon "Saudel" was still over the South China Sea, Zhejiang was already hit hard: affected by the combined influence of the typhoon’s inverted trough and cold air, on September 1 heavy rain poured over the southern coastal areas of Zhejiang. Cangnan in Wenzhou broke the local rainfall record, with a single-station 24-hour maximum exceeding 530 millimeters, and 135 alerts were issued across the province at one point.

The so-called “off-the-mountain bull-hitting” means that the typhoon’s outer warm and moist airflow moves northward along the inverted trough, and with terrain lifting added in, the rain falls far away from the typhoon’s center — the power of a typhoon has never been only in its center, but even more in its ability to transport water vapor.

In the coming days, the coastal areas of Zhejiang and Fujian still need to stay alert to rain prevention. Mountain areas should watch out for flash floods and geological disasters, avoid wading through low-lying areas, and do not linger by rivers or reservoirs. Are you in the heavy rain area? Stay safe and leave a message in the comments to let everyone know you’re okay. #ZhejiangHeavyRain

Hong Kong actor Lau Siu-ming passed away on the evening of September 2 at the age of 94.

Many people may not remember his name, but they will certainly remember that tongue — in the 1987 film A Chinese Ghost Story, he played the Tree Demon Granny, whose gender was hard to tell, with a hoarse voice and a long tongue that could frighten a generation of children into tears. It was one of the few ghosts in Chinese-language cinema that was brought to life by acting rather than special effects.

Even fewer people know his other identity: before entering the industry, he was a dancer, and later served as TVB’s dance director. In the industry, he was called “Ming Sir.” People like Tony Leung Chiu-wai and Andy Lau all received his guidance back then. A man who trained actors to speak with their bodies ultimately became one of the best at acting with his own body — the eerie physicality of Granny was rooted right here.

At 94, he lived a long life. But the names of Hong Kong cinema’s golden era are being crossed off one by one like this.

How old were you when you first watched A Chinese Ghost Story? Were you ever scared by Granny?

#LauSiuMingPassedAway

The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has hit a near three-year high, and the easiest mistake for ordinary investors is to look only at the level without looking at who is pushing it up. On September 2, intraday, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield reached 4.814%, the highest since November 2023; the 30-year rose to 5.286%, and the 2-year was about 4.4% — the long end is rising more aggressively than the short end, and that pattern itself is a clue: this is not simply a rate-hike expectation (which would first push up the 2-year), but rather a mix of inflation worries and government debt supply pressure, further intensified by surging oil prices from the U.S.-Iran conflict, triggering a broad global bond sell-off. Why should every crypto user care? The 10-year yield is the global “risk-free rate anchor” for assets; when it rises, all future cash flows are discounted at a higher rate, putting the most direct pressure on long-duration tech stocks and non-yielding assets like $BTC . Even more troublesome, this move is being driven by the chain of “oil prices → inflation expectations → the market starts pricing in rate hikes,” which is harder to absorb than a simple supply shock. Three actionable takeaways: first, distinguish the drivers — oil-driven rises mainly compress risk appetite and earnings expectations, while debt-supply-driven rises mainly pressure valuations; the damage paths to assets are different. Second, watch the Federal Reserve meeting on September 16 and demand at the 30-year Treasury auction; the former determines short-end pricing, while the latter tests who is willing to absorb long-duration bonds. Third, for $BTC , during macro-dominated periods its correlation with yields can temporarily turn negative, so don’t chase risk assets on the day yields spike; wait for yields to peak and pull back before reassessing. Remember that in October 2023, yields also briefly neared 5%, and the big move for risk assets only came in the following months — when the bond market is most panicked, the turning point is often not far away. #The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield touched its highest level since November 2023

The IMF has stamped El Salvador’s Bitcoin ledger: the additional $BTC accumulated since June 2025 came from private donations, with no public funds used. This conclusion appears in the IMF announcement on staff-level agreement reached with El Salvador for the second and third combined reviews under the 40-month Extended Fund Facility arrangement. Once Executive Board approval is granted and prior actions are completed, El Salvador could receive about $140 million in additional financing ($101.96 million in Special Drawing Rights).

The backdrop is that El Salvador had previously disclosed a $100 million purchase, which seemed to conflict with the agreement’s zero ceiling that the public sector must not buy more Bitcoin or engage in mining. This time, the IMF has effectively provided a technical explanation. The significance for the market is not the $140 million itself, but that sovereign Bitcoin holdings and the IMF framework have, for the first time, found a way to coexist. If the donation channel can continue, will other small countries that want to hold Bitcoin copy this structure?

CryptoQuant data shows that in August, the spot trading volume of $XRP rose to its highest level since February, with Binance accounting for the largest share of monthly trading at about $728 million. Prices also strengthened in sync, at one point rising about 8% intraday to around $1.45, and the full-month gain in August came close to 27%, the strongest August since 2021.

A return in trading volume usually says more than price alone: it means people are willing to trade hands at this level, rather than only existing holdings floating around. The push behind this rally comes from two sides: first, cumulative net inflows into the spot XRP ETF have reached about $1.68 billion in incremental buying power; second, expectations are building around the upcoming activation of AMM-related upgrades on the XRP Ledger. It is worth noting that monthly escrow unlocks are still ongoing, and each unlock adds pressure from above. Do you think the $1.5 level can be broken through this time?

After oil prices “rose for three consecutive days and then stabilized,” what is not stabilizing is the fundamentals, but rather the pricing of the war premium temporarily cooling off. Brent has risen cumulatively by more than 8% over three days, back around $95; WTI is also holding above $90, and the two have since gone sideways. This year, oil prices have already gained nearly 60%. Why the sudden surge? It’s not because supply and demand suddenly tightened; rather, the market is pricing in the possibility of “the Strait of Hormuz being cut off.” After U.S. forces carried out airstrikes on Iran, Iran retaliated with missiles and drones against U.S. bases in the Middle East. The Strait of Hormuz handles about one-fifth of the world’s seaborne oil shipments; before the war, it averaged about 20 million barrels per day. The premium comes due before any actual supply disruption—insurance costs, shipowners’ risk-avoidance, and rerouting expenses all rise in advance. Why has it stabilized again? Because supply data has not worsened: on Tuesday, the U.S. escorted 40 merchant vessels, with roughly 18 million barrels of crude passing through the strait, and it repeatedly emphasized that traffic remains steady. Trump also said the airstrikes “won’t last too long,” so the momentum for expanding the premium has temporarily waned. But stabilization does not mean a pullback: Saudi Arabia’s exports last month fell to at least a nine-year low, and war damage and risk have already lifted the floor under oil prices. What will determine oil prices next is not news headlines, but three things: whether Iran will retaliate again and whether Israel gets involved; the actual throughput of the Strait of Hormuz and tanker freight insurance premiums; and after oil prices feed into inflation, how the Federal Reserve will decide at its September 16 meeting. Oil is now the master switch for global assets—when it doesn’t move much, it’s hard for interest rates, the stock market, and even crypto markets to find a truly clear direction. #After three days of crude oil gains, prices stabilize

One Bitcoin can now buy 18.17 troy ounces of gold—this is the highest ratio since January. Based on publicly available market data, $BTC is hovering around $81,000, while gold is also rising over the same period—both “hard assets” are strengthening at the same time, but Bitcoin is moving faster.

This ratio is more interesting than looking at the U.S. dollar price alone, because it strips out changes in the dollar itself: it tells you which side marginal capital is more willing to favor between two assets that are both treated as inflation hedges. The driver behind this round of lift isn’t changes in bond yields, but concerns that governments will ultimately dilute debt via inflation. Same logic—gold has been benefiting from conservative flows, while Bitcoin has been attracting the portion of investors willing to bear volatility.

After topping in January and falling for half a year, the ratio has now climbed back to about where it was then. That means Bitcoin’s discount relative to gold has essentially been fully corrected. A reminder: this ratio is extremely volatile—it’s better used to gauge shifts in capital preference than as a valuation anchor. Which side would you rather hold?

Today, September 3, marks the 81st anniversary of the victory in China’s War of Resistance Against Japanese Aggression.

Japan formally signed the Instrument of Surrender on September 2, 1945; the next day, the whole nation celebrated. In 2014, September 3 was designated as a national memorial day by legislation. Last year was the 80th anniversary, with a commemorative conference and a parade; this year there isn’t any grand ceremony—just an ordinary day.

I think the 81st anniversary deserves to be mentioned as well. On milestones like every fifth or tenth year, there are ceremonies. But the first year after the ceremony is when remembrance truly begins to take shape through personal transmission: archives don’t open themselves, veterans grow fewer year by year, and once many details are no longer told, they really do disappear.

The effective way to commemorate is actually small: ask one question, remember one thing, and write it down. It’s okay if today you don’t post all over your feed—go ask the oldest person in your family.

Have your elders talked about those years? Survived the hard times, helped rebuild roads, carried a gun—whether only a couple of fragments remain, you’re welcome to share them in the comments, and leave them a few words in their memory.

#81st Anniversary of the Victory in the War of Resistance

A case recently reported by the Zhengzhou Anti-Fraud Center has served as a warning to all parents: In Zhengzhou, a school posted a class-group QR code on its WeChat public account. A scammer scanned it to enter three Grade 12 class groups, replaced the profile picture and nickname with ones exactly identical to the homeroom teacher’s, and initiated a group payment of 276 yuan using the pretext of “medical examination fee of 178 yuan, insurance fee of 98 yuan.” As a result, 33 parents paid without verifying—totaling 9,108 yuan.

The scam isn’t especially clever, yet it managed to hit precisely, relying on “timing + trust.” During the start of the school term, the charging items were all things families needed, and parents feared delaying their children. Moreover, the QR code came from the school’s official public account, naturally carrying an aura of credibility. The school’s decision to publish the class-group QR code online was also a misstep.

Remember this: For any charges in a group, first confirm by phone or in person with the teacher themselves—don’t be afraid of the hassle. Have you encountered a similar payment notification in a parents’ group? #Impersonation-of-a-homeroom-teacher-scam

This autumn semester, schools across the country switched to new textbooks for all grade levels in primary and middle schools. Starting in the fall of 2024, the unified compulsory-education textbooks were first implemented for Grade 1 and Grade 7, and then rolled out one grade level at a time. By this semester, the final group of grades had also completed the switch. The changes are concentrated in three subjects: Chinese language and literature, history, and moral education and rule of law.

For families with students, the most direct impacts are three things: the path of passing down the old textbooks the older sibling has finished to the younger one has been cut off; secondhand tutoring materials and old practice booklets on the market no longer match the answer keys or page numbers in the new textbooks; and when helping with homework, you have to flip through the book again—you can’t rely on your own memories from when you were in school to explain it anymore.

Switching textbooks is a normal cycle—there are timelines for writing, review, and piloting. What’s worth discussing is the other layer: textbooks are used for many years, but the knowledge and tools children will face in the future are updating much faster than that cycle. What textbooks can catch up with are the knowledge points; what they can’t keep up with is the methods.

Which version of the textbooks did you use when you were in school, and how many passages do you still remember?
#NewTextbooksForPrimaryAndMiddleSchool

Someone topped up 1,000 yuan, and the account received 26419933 billion yuan—everything you read is 2641万9933亿. It’s several times bigger than the world’s GDP for a whole year.

The reason is simple: staff entered the user’s 16-digit account ID into the “top-up amount” field, and the system accepted it without question.

What’s funny is the money; what’s worth talking about is the system. A proper accounting system should do at least three things in the amount field: set a business limit and reject anything over it; validate the account field separately—16 digits that are purely numeric look like an ID, not money; and require a second confirmation or manual review when exceeding a threshold. If any one of these measures were effective, this trending topic wouldn’t exist.

In reality, many systems’ “risk control” work just like this: they can block small, frequent amounts, but they can’t block a one-off absurd slip of the hand.

By the way: when that string of numbers appears out of nowhere in your account, what’s your first reaction—take a screenshot, or call customer service right away?

#Top-upMiscreditedTrillions

“Goodbye to the set-top box” has trended on social media. On August 31, China’s Radio and Television Administration launched the country’s first centralized procurement of integrated TV adapters—put simply, it means integrating the set-top box’s functions into the TV itself or a built-in small module, so you can turn it on and watch live broadcasts directly, with time-shift and catch-up features, without needing an extra box and an extra remote.

The technology isn’t complicated; it’s just been many years too late. TVs losing viewers was never because screens weren’t big enough, but because it’s too troublesome to turn them on: two or three remotes, switching inputs, finding the right entry point—older family members can’t figure out how to tune to the channels they want to watch. At the same time, traditional channels are also shrinking. Industry data says that in 2024, at least 51 TV channels across the country were shut down, and in 2025, at least 75.

Eliminating one box solves the question of “can you turn it on,” but it doesn’t solve “whether you’ll want to watch after you turn it on.”

A practical one: When was the last time your TV was seriously turned on? Do the older people in your family still watch TV now?

#GoodbyeToTheSetTopBox

Li Yueru, the 2.01-meter center of China’s women’s basketball team, missed the World Cup due to a first-time passport issue.

On social media, she said the reissued passport was lost in the mail and has not been found to date. During this period, all sides have been trying to sort it out, but they still couldn’t obtain the new documents before the tournament—she is in the United States and cannot travel to Germany.

At 27, she joined the national team just over a year after turning 18. At the 2022 Sydney World Cup, she won a silver medal with China’s team. She currently plays for the WNBA’s Dallas Wings. This edition, China will still have to face the United States—losing her in the paint is a real loss.

What’s most hard to say anything about is this: it’s not an injury, not form, and not a coaching decision—it’s simply that a paper document disappeared in the logistics process. An athlete’s prime lasts only a few years. The World Cup is held every four years—if you miss it, you miss that edition forever.

She has done everything she can. For something like this, who do you think the responsibility should fall on?

#Li Yueru Misses the World Cup

Starting September 1, multiple domestic smartphone manufacturers collectively raised prices for some models, with increases ranging from 200 to 1,000 yuan. The most dramatic part was the reaction from dealers: they had expected a rush for purchases, but the stores were cold and quiet—hardly anyone even asked for inquiries.

“Raising prices that don’t sell” is actually not surprising. Phones have long moved past the era of “buy early to enjoy more.” With performance surplus and slowing innovation, many people’s current phones can still run smoothly for another two or three years. The price hikes, meanwhile, give would-be buyers a reason to wait: it’s not that they can’t afford it, it’s that they feel it’s not worth it. When “wait-and-see” shoppers become the norm, manufacturers’ pricing power is being diluted by consumers’ patience.

Buyers who truly need it will go for the discounted older models, while those who aren’t in a rush can keep waiting. In this round, who do you think will be the first to make concessions?#phone price hike

September became the mobile industry’s Spring Festival travel rush: Huawei kicks off on the 7th at 2:30 p.m., Xiaomi follows on the 7th at 7:00 p.m., and Apple ( $AAPLB ) holds its event at Apple Park on the 9th. The local time is the early hours of the 10th, Beijing time. The three companies squeeze into the same week—none is willing to back off.

Why does it have to be September? First, that’s when the new generation of chips finally reaches mass production, and the supply chain timeline gets stuck here. Second, Apple’s keynote is the biggest “attention hub” of the year; rather than avoiding it, you might as well stay close to it—reviews and comparisons will naturally bring you along. Third, from September to Double 11 is the longest sales window of the year; miss it and you’ll have to wait until next spring.

So clashing schedules don’t necessarily hurt sales. The harder part is something else: on September 1st, Huawei, Xiaomi, and Honor collectively raised prices. Some models went up by 200 to 1,000 yuan, and everyone’s phone replacement cycle keeps stretching longer. Even if the launch events are lively, they still have to convince someone who has used a phone for three years and still thinks it works well to pay.

Will you upgrade your phone this year—or hold on for another year?
#苹果发布会 #mobile price increase

SOL fell below $100 this time. The real issue isn’t a fundamental negative catalyst, but a typical leverage wipeout. On September 2, SOL dropped as much as 3.5%, briefly hitting a low of $98.47 and breaking through the $100 integer level. That day, total derivatives liquidations across the entire market were about $370 million, and over 90,000 positions were closed out. Long liquidations accounted for $302 million—far higher than short liquidations of $67.83 million—making it a textbook case of leveraged long panic selling. The spark came from the macro environment: oil prices surged, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury hit the highest level since November 2023, and the market briefly priced in a rate hike by the Fed on September 16. Risk assets were broadly under pressure, and $SOL wasn’t the only one hurt. But why did it fall harder than the broader market? The key is positioning: after the rebound pushed the price above $100, many highly leveraged long positions piled in densely near the level. Once the $100 barrier broke, the liquidations triggered a chain reaction, dumping the price to even lower levels and creating a waterfall decline. Note one detail: that day, Solana spot-type investment products still recorded net inflows of about $10 million. What was washed out was leveraged positions—not spot holdings. The next divergence between bulls and bears lies here: if the macro backdrop stabilizes and $100 is quickly reclaimed, the rebound’s upside elasticity may actually be stronger. If oil prices and Treasury yields continue to weigh on the market, then $100 will turn from support into resistance. For trading, don’t catch falling knives in the waterfall. Wait for two signals: the liquidation volume shrinks and $100 is re-established, then reassess direction. #Solana drops more than 3%

AI’s money is moving from training to inference, and inference is especially picky about “where the data center is.” On September 2, data center operator Equinix, together with NVIDIA and Together AI, launched Inference Exchange. The division of labor is clear: Equinix provides power, cooling, and operations; NVIDIA provides enterprise reference architectures and hardware; Together AI provides an inference platform and more than 200 open-source models. The goal is to let companies run inference in data center facilities in the same cities closest to their users, while meeting compliance requirements that data must not leave the country, with plans to roll it out gradually starting in the first quarter of 2027. On the day the news broke, Equinix rose 2%, and was up about 33% for the year so far, with its market value crossing $100 billion. The significance of this clue for $NVDAB is even greater than that 2%: inference demand is moving from a few mega-scale clouds to managed data centers across hundreds of cities.