“Rise to the highest level in July” — the background to this rally is that the US-Iran conflict, which began with mutual attacks on warships and oil tankers, has escalated into direct strikes on shipping lanes. First, let’s look at the data: Brent crude closed on Monday at $97.31, having touched $98.06 intraday—both the highest levels since July 24. Brent rose about 8% on the week, while WTI gained nearly 10%. On September 9, Brent also climbed above $100 for the first time since July 24. This is not a technical rebound; it’s geopolitical risk premia being layered on step by step.
More importantly, physical volumes are already validating the price increase. Kpler data shows that over the past 10 days, the average number of cargo ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz was only about 10 per day—the lowest since May. Iran has set up new “no-go zones” in the strait, and after the parliamentary speaker’s comments, there are threats that retaliation will be “faster and more intense.” The attacks have shifted from striking warships to targeting oil tankers and export facilities—directly hitting Iran’s cash flow, while also pulling the strait—which accounts for roughly one-fifth of global oil transport—into the line of fire. Shipping insurance and freight rates are rising as commercial shipping takes precautions; countries are being forced to draw down inventories passively. Supply disruptions are moving from “expectations” to “reality.”
OPEC+ kept production quotas unchanged over the weekend, effectively giving up the chance to offset the shock with increased output. Goldman Sachs warned that if attacks targeting shipping continue to increase, oil prices could rise as high as $120. The United States’ strategic petroleum reserves are at their lowest level since 1982. The buffer to dampen oil prices is not thick, and policy room is being exhausted.
There are three key things to watch next: whether the Strait of Hormuz’s transit volumes can stop falling and rebound—this is the most direct indicator of whether the conflict is sliding toward a “facts-on-the-ground blockade.” Iran has warned that crews of tankers docking at Kuwaiti and Bahraini ports must leave immediately—whether the threat is carried out will determine whether the fighting spreads to the other side of the Gulf. Second-round transmission to inflation expectations: $100 oil would rewrite central banks’ interest-rate paths, and in turn suppress all risk assets.
The peak of this oil rally is unlikely to be determined by inventory data; it will most likely be driven by military decisions. Until signals of a ceasefire appear, the logic of going long on pullbacks remains smooth—but behind every green candle are real ships and crews taking real risks. In this kind of market, the money is not easy to make.
#Crude oil rises to the highest level in July
More importantly, physical volumes are already validating the price increase. Kpler data shows that over the past 10 days, the average number of cargo ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz was only about 10 per day—the lowest since May. Iran has set up new “no-go zones” in the strait, and after the parliamentary speaker’s comments, there are threats that retaliation will be “faster and more intense.” The attacks have shifted from striking warships to targeting oil tankers and export facilities—directly hitting Iran’s cash flow, while also pulling the strait—which accounts for roughly one-fifth of global oil transport—into the line of fire. Shipping insurance and freight rates are rising as commercial shipping takes precautions; countries are being forced to draw down inventories passively. Supply disruptions are moving from “expectations” to “reality.”
OPEC+ kept production quotas unchanged over the weekend, effectively giving up the chance to offset the shock with increased output. Goldman Sachs warned that if attacks targeting shipping continue to increase, oil prices could rise as high as $120. The United States’ strategic petroleum reserves are at their lowest level since 1982. The buffer to dampen oil prices is not thick, and policy room is being exhausted.
There are three key things to watch next: whether the Strait of Hormuz’s transit volumes can stop falling and rebound—this is the most direct indicator of whether the conflict is sliding toward a “facts-on-the-ground blockade.” Iran has warned that crews of tankers docking at Kuwaiti and Bahraini ports must leave immediately—whether the threat is carried out will determine whether the fighting spreads to the other side of the Gulf. Second-round transmission to inflation expectations: $100 oil would rewrite central banks’ interest-rate paths, and in turn suppress all risk assets.
The peak of this oil rally is unlikely to be determined by inventory data; it will most likely be driven by military decisions. Until signals of a ceasefire appear, the logic of going long on pullbacks remains smooth—but behind every green candle are real ships and crews taking real risks. In this kind of market, the money is not easy to make.
#Crude oil rises to the highest level in July