Bluechip

🚨 THE ALPHA BOARD – FOUNDERS ACCESS 🚨

After multiple requests from some followers, I’ve decided to open something private.

What I share publicly is only a fraction of the full picture.
The market is a game of liquidity, timing, and understanding.
Most people always arrive… too late.

Today, I’m officially opening The Alpha Board, a private group built for those who want to see the move before it happens, not after.

Inside, you’ll get:
• Advanced market analysis ($BTC , Stocks, macro)
• Key liquidity zones & forward scenarios
• Smart money flow breakdowns
• Clear market structure insights
• Direct access + a serious community

This is NOT a signals group.
This is where you build a real edge.
If you’re tired of:
- following the crowd
- entering too late
- not understanding why the market moves

Then this is exactly for you.
Founder one-time access: $39
Limited spots available

Scan the QR code or click on the link to join instantly
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The market doesn’t reward the fastest.
It rewards the most prepared.

The Alpha Board link

#BTC #crypto #trading #smartmoney #BinanceSquare

$BTC squiggles

Here's a rough visualization of how I see the most likely scenarios playing out. If you average them, you'll get a feel for the broad concept I have. I can absolutely be wrong, but it's my take on things currently.

Note that I give the diagonal (dotted) trend lines some importance in controlling the price movements as well as the horizontal support levels.

This falls in alignment with my other post on the odds I give these Bitcoin scenarios.

S&P 500 earnings are at all time highs.

That helps justify part of the strength in equities, but it does not mean valuations are cheap. The key question now is how much future growth is already priced in.

With Bitcoin, the disconnect is even larger. BTC has moved through several orders of magnitude while corporate earnings have grown much more gradually.

Bitcoin still responds far more to liquidity, leverage, and risk appetite than to corporate fundamentals.

Worth watching this divergence closely.

$ZEC (per request)

Still pretty concerning price action for a double top here on daily.

Zoomed out though the weekly and monthly chart look pretty impressive.

$SUI (per request)

A good example of a dead altcoin chart staying dead.

If it's gonna recover it needs to happen soon but not the best looking chart to buy into until it can shift into bullish structure.

$PENDLE (per request)

Solid structure here. If it can break above the triangle resistance it could see some upside with a measured target.

$BTC 4H heading for higher low test HnS top complex structure with rising neck-base

Looking at $BTC ’s Price Drawdown from ATH chart, the latest bottom doesn’t seem nearly as aggressive as what we saw in previous cycles.

Bitcoin fell only 53% from its 2025 ATH of $126K.

It’s interesting and somewhat unusual. Could ETFs and corporate treasury accumulation really be changing the dynamics of this bear market?

I still prefer to wait a few more weeks before jumping to conclusions.

$BTC just closed August in green for the first time ever during a bear market.

BTC finished the month up 25.1%, from $62,794 to $78,545.

That's the strongest August performance since November 2024, and the 3rd best August in Bitcoin's history.

At one point, BTC was up 30% from the monthly low to the monthly high.

Bitcoin has now closed both July and August in green together, and historically, September has closed red every time that's happened.

Behind the move was a massive short squeeze.

From Aug 17-21 alone, traders got liquidated for $5.8 billion, almost half of the entire month's total.

Aug 19 alone saw $2.7 billion in short liquidations, the biggest single day for short liquidations.

By the end of the month, total liquidations hit $12.65 billion.

🚨 $BTC shows a high short-heavy imbalance with significant cascade risk.

Over 4x more short liq sits above price, with a large cluster near 79.2k.

$BTC Liquidation Heatmap
BTC just sold off and is moving toward the high-intensity band below.
The 3-day heatmap shows two dominant leverage clusters:

Overhead: dense short liquidity around $80,000 – $81,500
Below: a bright long-liquidation pocket near $77,000 – $77,500, with another stack lower around $75,500 – $76,000

The latest drop has not yet fully tagged the strongest lower band.

I currently give 70% odds the $BTC cycle bottom is in due to:

1. Huge breakout above 200-day MA and the downsloping trend line from cycle top.
2. High volume on the breakout.
3. Close time-proximity to a typical 12 month bear market low (it will be challenging to chop through all support levels below with just slightly over 1 month remaining for a low in a typical cycle).

I give 30% odds the bottom is NOT in because:

1. BTC formed a LOWER high (thus far).
2. No breakout above the 50-week MA.
3. The drop was only 54% from the highs.

If it breaks above $82.3K and holds it (lower high structure broken), as well as holding above the 50-week MA, I increase my odds to 80% chance the cycle low is.

This doesn’t mean we won’t get lower prices from this point forward. I think we’ll see a higher low in the coming few months.

$BTC 1H Chart Analysis

The 1H structure remains under pressure. Price has stayed below the recent swing high of $81,483, with a lower high forming near the $79,400 area. Multiple Order Blocks and an FVG sit overhead as resistance.

The 1H Chart flags a bearish scenario (65%): 1H is in a confirmed downtrend, with price below EMA20 and EMA50, supported by bearish MACD.

As long as price remains below the nearby FVG / EMA cluster, bounce attempts stay corrective. Watch whether $76,831 holds on the next test.

Zcash (ZEC) started the week by liquidating short term bulls.

But there are still plenty of positions at risk on both sides, Shorts and Longs, especially from traders who opened positions over the past few days.

There are also many Long positions from the past 6 months that have not yet been liquidated.

I’m expecting a lot of volatility from $ZEC over the next few days.

That’s exactly what I’m watching for.

If you think the $BTC bottom is in, what is your reasoning?

On the other side, if you are not convinced yet, what would you need to see?

For me WSMA 50 and 82.5k zone

There’s a very interesting divergence happening between Bitcoin, Ethereum, TRON, and Cardano when we look at active addresses.

And I don’t like interpreting this metric in isolation.

With Bitcoin, for example, onchain activity has dropped significantly compared to previous major cycles, even while price remains far above historical levels.

But that doesn’t necessarily mean Bitcoin is being used less.

A big part of the explanation is probably holder behavior.

$BTC investors today tend to hold for longer, move coins less frequently, and increasingly use structures such as ETFs, custodians, exchanges, and Lightning.

In other words, Bitcoin may be evolving more toward a reserve asset, where onchain activity no longer grows at the same pace as price.

$ETH is showing a different picture.

Activity has accelerated again and is now close to 1 million active addresses, even with a large part of the ecosystem moving to L2s.

That tells me Ethereum remains extremely relevant as financial infrastructure.

TRON may be the most impressive case.

More than 4 million active addresses.

And here, the main driver seems much more related to payments and stablecoins, especially USDT, than simply to $TRX price speculation.

TRON has become a massive infrastructure layer for transferring digital dollars.

Cardano is the one that concerns me the most in these data.

Activity has fallen sharply since 2021 and is now at very low levels compared to the network’s own history.

Price can rise because of narratives, liquidity, and speculation.

But onchain activity tells us whether people are actually using the blockchain.

And right now, these four networks are telling very different stories.

$BTC weekly.

The line I care about is the 50 week average, around 81,000. We tagged 81,255 this week, could not stay above it, and price is back under at 78,600.

A weekly close above that line changes my tone completely.

🚨Ethereum just did something it hasn’t done in 108 days.

Price has crossed back above its Realized Price a level $ETH had not reclaimed on a daily close since May 14.

If today’s close holds, it ends a 107-day stretch below the network’s aggregate cost basis.

That moves Ethereum’s aggregate holder base back into unrealized profit.

Not a price target. Not a guarantee.

A structural shift in the on-chain position of the network.

$BTC Liquidation Heatmap
Liquidation Radar is mapping the two nearest high-intensity pockets.
Upper zones
$80,250 – $80,950 - intensity 100 | distance 2.68%
$81,550 – $81,650 - intensity 20
$80,050 – $80,150 - intensity 19

Lower zone
$76,250 – $76,800 - intensity 98 | distance 1.73%

The strongest leverage sits just overhead at $80.2k–$80.9k, while an almost equally dense long-liquidation cluster sits below at $76.2k–$76.8k. Price is boxed between two high-score liquidity magnets.
Heatmap for the full picture. Radar for the exact levels.

Yesterday 6.44 billion dollars of $BTC options expired. The max pain level, where option buyers lose out, sat around 68,000. Bitcoin stayed near 79,000 and never went there.

People quote that level like it pulls the price. It does not.