Arrive at the end of the water, and sit to watch the clouds rise.
Good morning on Thursday of the third week of September. Yesterday, the small ADP non-farm payroll data came out on Wednesday; the seemingly positive news on the surface didn’t break out of the rebound space I expected. So where does the key lie? It’s Friday’s non-farm payrolls!
This is an important reference for whether September will raise rates. The spot Bitcoin ETF has shifted from the earlier continuous net inflows to a slight net outflow, and institutional capital is beginning to be cautious.
Overall leverage in the futures market has already clearly fallen, open positions are at a relatively low level, there’s no condition for extreme overheating, and the market lacks the scenario for a large one-way liquidation event. We’re now in a range-bound “grinding” phase before a directional choice.
The Fed’s expectations for a rate hike in September remain high. The dollar and U.S. Treasury yields stay strong, suppressing overall sentiment toward risk assets.
Looking at the technicals again: On the daily chart, the medium- to long-term moving averages are still pointing upward, and the larger-scale bullish trend structure hasn’t been broken. However, the MACD red histogram continues to shrink, and upward momentum for the bulls has clearly weakened. After pushing to higher levels, price falls back into a high-range consolidation. Multiple attempts to break through the strong resistance band of 800–815 failed. This area has accumulated a large amount of historical trapped positions and profit-taking sell pressure, making it difficult for the market to break through that supply wall easily in the near term.
On the four-hour chart, the Bollinger Bands are tightening, volatility is narrowing, and both sides keep sweeping stops back and forth.
In summary, before Friday’s non-farm data, keep trading within the 765–788 range for high sells and low buys. The key support at the 765 level hasn’t been effectively broken—so be cautious and let the “duo-tou” (bulls) lead! $BTC #美国8月ADP就业创1月来最小增幅
Good morning on Thursday of the third week of September. Yesterday, the small ADP non-farm payroll data came out on Wednesday; the seemingly positive news on the surface didn’t break out of the rebound space I expected. So where does the key lie? It’s Friday’s non-farm payrolls!
This is an important reference for whether September will raise rates. The spot Bitcoin ETF has shifted from the earlier continuous net inflows to a slight net outflow, and institutional capital is beginning to be cautious.
Overall leverage in the futures market has already clearly fallen, open positions are at a relatively low level, there’s no condition for extreme overheating, and the market lacks the scenario for a large one-way liquidation event. We’re now in a range-bound “grinding” phase before a directional choice.
The Fed’s expectations for a rate hike in September remain high. The dollar and U.S. Treasury yields stay strong, suppressing overall sentiment toward risk assets.
Looking at the technicals again: On the daily chart, the medium- to long-term moving averages are still pointing upward, and the larger-scale bullish trend structure hasn’t been broken. However, the MACD red histogram continues to shrink, and upward momentum for the bulls has clearly weakened. After pushing to higher levels, price falls back into a high-range consolidation. Multiple attempts to break through the strong resistance band of 800–815 failed. This area has accumulated a large amount of historical trapped positions and profit-taking sell pressure, making it difficult for the market to break through that supply wall easily in the near term.
On the four-hour chart, the Bollinger Bands are tightening, volatility is narrowing, and both sides keep sweeping stops back and forth.
In summary, before Friday’s non-farm data, keep trading within the 765–788 range for high sells and low buys. The key support at the 765 level hasn’t been effectively broken—so be cautious and let the “duo-tou” (bulls) lead! $BTC #美国8月ADP就业创1月来最小增幅
