(btc, eth face a major test tonight)
Tonight at 10:00 p.m., the highly anticipated U.S. Federal Reserve chair, Woss, will speak at the Jackson Hole summit.
Many friends are now speculating: tonight, will he be a hawk or a dove?
To be honest, Woss is really in a very awkward position right now—hard to please both inside and outside.
In my personal judgment, Woss is essentially a dove wearing the cloak of a hawk. But he currently isn't willing to reveal that identity too early.
Why do people say that his current situation is very difficult?
Because if he releases dovish easing signals too early, the institutional credibility the Fed has built over many years would be called into question by the market to a very large extent.
But on the other side, U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent has made an unconventional move in the past few days by having the Treasury buy long-term government bonds. With this step, Bessent is effectively putting Waller on the hot seat, making it even harder for him to choose.
If tonight’s speech from Waller clearly leans hawkish, then the actions Betcenst has taken beforehand would almost be wasted.
Besides that, there’s another layer of pressure: the midterm elections in November are coming up soon. Trump wants more accommodative monetary policy to help his campaign.
Waller himself was put forward by Trump, so, in terms of reason and propriety, he also has to be careful. On one hand, he needs to maintain the Fed’s credibility; on the other hand, he has to cooperate with fiscal policy, and he also has to take into account election demands—so right now he’s really stuck between two sides.
So, based on Waller’s consistent past style, the safest approach for him is very likely to continue playing it neutral—without giving the market clear forward-looking guidance,
As for how things will go afterward, let the market look at the data and make the judgment themselves.
So how do we tell whether he’s hawkish or dovish tonight? I’ll give everyone two clear criteria:
First, if Waller explicitly lays out what kinds of conditions would lead them to support rate hikes—for example, by giving specific inflation number thresholds and providing the market with clear reference points—then that would be a hawkish signal.
Second, if the entire speech avoids the specific trigger conditions for rate hikes and cuts and is fairly vague—just like in the previous meeting—even if he doesn’t directly say they want to cut rates, the market will interpret it as being more dovish.
Especially one key point: if he spends a large portion talking about artificial intelligence—saying that AI will improve productivity in the long run—but keeps silent about the trigger conditions of the current monetary policy, then the market will automatically understand that his inner stance is to support subsequent rate cuts.
Unless something unexpected happens, before Waller’s speech lands, BTC and ETH will most likely remain in this kind of choppy range. The market’s true direction will only be decided after Waller speaks.
If tonight he releases dovish remarks, BTC and ETH will surge higher.
But as long as the speech gives even a slight hawkish hint, after this round of big rally, BTC and ETH are very likely to see a pullback to take profits. That possibility isn’t small either.
Putting everything together, my personal view is that the highest probability is that tonight Waller will play it neutral and keep things vague, essentially a slightly bullish setup for BTC and ETH—that is, there’s a good chance we see a spike higher tonight. It could be a spike followed by a pullback, or a spike followed by sideways consolidation.
Don’t make your position too heavy. Sit tight and hold on firmly. After the speech at 10 tonight, I’ll provide a synchronized interpretation for everyone right away—please keep watching.
