张无忌wepoets

Fear & Greed Index 72 (reading on September 25). BTC is at $84,320, up 0.07% in the past 24 hours; ETH is at $2,679, down 0.02%. Tonight at 16:00 (Beijing time), Deribit quarterly options expiry will occur. Approximately $18 billion worth of BTC/ETH contracts will be settled in a concentrated manner. After market makers linked to these contracts remove their hedging positions, short-term liquidity and volatility will need to be repriced again.
Cryptocurrency recommendation
BTC
Current: $84,320 | 24 hours +0.07% | 7 days +10.46% | 80/100
Forecast: Bullish; 3-day target $87,000–$90,000
Logic: The U.S. spot BTC ETF has seen net inflows for 5 consecutive trading days, totaling about $2.65 billion. Within the 7-day range centered around $81,846, the median and the ETF holdings cost line overlap to form a strong support. ADX 44.3 indicates the strength of the uptrend has not been broken. A pullback on lower volume is a healthy consolidation.

Fear and Greed Index 74 (reading on September 24). BTC is at $84,398, down 2.08% in 24 hours; ETH is at $2,685, down 2.47%. The driver is that the U.S. September S&P Global Composite PMI rose to 58.4, and the 10-year Treasury yield was pushed to 5.058%, the highest since 2007—risk assets collectively gave back gains.
Cryptocurrency recommendation
BTC
Current: $84,398 | 24 hours -2.08% | 7 days +10.75% | 86/100
Prediction: Bullish. 3-day target: $87,000–$89,000
Rationale: The U.S. spot BTC ETF saw a net inflow of $2.306 billion over four days. The average cost line of ETF holders for $81,722 forms a solid support. ADX at 44.5 indicates the strength of the uptrend hasn’t been broken.

Fear & Greed Index 77 (reading on Sep 23). BTC is at $86,457, roughly flat over the past 24 hours. ETH is at $2,760, down 0.51%. BTC briefly pushed above $87,000 overnight, moved above the 50-week moving average (first time in 45 weeks), and hit the highest level since late January. Across the market, gains outnumbered declines; there was no major coin showing a volume-amplified selloff. Risk appetite has clearly rebounded.
Cryptocurrency recommendations
ZEC
Current: $1,617 | 24h +10.07% | 7d +46.79% | Overall score 86/100
Prediction: Bullish; 3-day target $1,720–$1,800
Logic: The daily ADX 58.4 is the strongest trend reading across the entire market. Nominal 24-hour trading volume is $479 million, leading the copycat coin sector. Breaks the 7-day high at $1,650 with a 1.26x volume expansion. Capital in the privacy-coin direction has never faltered in its support.

Fear & Greed Index 78 (reading as of Sep 22). BTC is at $85,874, up 5.20% in 24 hours and up 13.52% in 7 days; intraday high reached $87,396, the highest in eight months. ETH is at $2,754, up 2.35%. There is only one driver: BTC breaks out of the September consolidation range of $75,000 to $80,000 with increased volume. Over the past 24 hours, more than $740 million of shorts were liquidated, and spot ETF flows have turned into net inflows at the same time.
Cryptocurrency recommendation
SUI
Now: $1.0528 | 24h +13.00% | 7d +53.18% | Overall score 86/100
Prediction: Bullish. 3-day target: $1.16-$1.22
Reasoning: This is the strongest one in the public chain sector—an effective breakout above the $0.9725 resistance that has suppressed the price for months. On-chain TVL has risen to $1.64 billion, and open interest over the past 24 hours increased by 29% to $402 million. The price and positions both rose, indicating new capital entering rather than closing positions. Ahead of the Sui Basecamp event on Oct 7-8, there are expectations for product releases. In addition, Raoul Pal has publicly listed it as the top pick for AI agent-economy assets.

Fear and Greed Index 72 (Sept 21 reading). BTC is at $81,778, up 0.82% in 24 hours and up 4.57% in 7 days; ETH is at $2,688, up 2.55% and up 6.75% in 7 days. There is only one catalyst: the Federal Reserve rate hike and the CLARITY Act were both rejected—these two negative factors landed one after another, without further deterioration. The market then began reverse positioning; over $600 million in short positions was liquidated within 24 hours. BTC rebounded nearly 9% from the low of 74,968 to reclaim $81,000.
Cryptocurrency recommendation
NEAR
Current: $4.297 | 24h +20.53% | 7d +73.75% | Overall Score 84/100
Forecast: Bullish, 3-day target $4.60-$4.85

Fear & Greed Index 64 (Sept 18 reading). BTC is at $77,038, up 0.91% in 24 hours, down 0.24% in 7 days; ETH is at $2,464.05, up 1.48%, down 2.08% in 7 days. That day, there was only one driver: After the CLARITY Act 9/15 was rejected by the Senate for two days, the SEC on 9/17 directly issued a five-year “Innovation Exemption Order,” allowing tokenized U.S. stocks to be traded in licensed AMM pools. UNI led the DeFi sector higher.
Cryptocurrency recommendations
NEAR
Current: $3.312 | 24 hours +25.41% | 7 days +40.10% | Composite score 86/100
Forecast: Bullish. 3-day target: $3.45-$3.65

Fear & Greed Index 63 (Sept 17 reading). BTC at $76,358, up 0.75% over 24 hours, down 0.28% over 7 days; ETH at $2,420.79, up 0.89% over 24 hours, down 0.76% over 7 days. There was only one driver that day: the U.S. Federal Reserve raised rates by 25 basis points early in the morning with a unanimous 12-0 vote to 3.75%-4.00%—the first time in more than three years. But the market had already priced it in at 99%. Crypto interpreted it as a positive, with ZEC leading the privacy sector in a rally against the trend.
Cryptocurrency recommendations
ZEC
Current: $1,353.27 | 24h +20.86% | 7d +25.15% | Composite score 88/100
Forecast: Bullish. 3-day target: $1,450-$1,520

Fear and Greed Index: 63 (reading on September 16).
BTC is at $75,810, down 2.89% over the past 24 hours and down 3.19% over 7 days. Intraday low was $74,968, with the decline once exceeding 5%. ETH is at $2,402.74, down 4.48% over the past 24 hours; it briefly fell by more than 8% intraday. This is Bitcoin’s largest single-day drop since June. Over the past 24 hours, total liquidations across the market were nearly $700 million, and 116,000 people were liquidated.
It was Washington that smashed the market. On Tuesday, the Senate held a procedural vote on the CLARITY Act. With 10 votes short of the 60-vote threshold, it failed to move forward. The Democrats are stalling the bill this year over the moral provisions tying President Trump’s family to encrypted business interests. Crypto concept stocks all slumped sharply: COIN fell 10.10%, ranking first among S&P 500 decliners that day; Circle dropped more than 11%; MSTR fell 5.36%.

Fear & Greed Index: 69. BTC is at $77,984, up 1.56% over the past 24 hours, but still down 0.58% over 7 days; ETH is at $2,515.5, up 1.25%.
The most counterintuitive thing today is that crypto has decoupled from U.S. tech stocks. A group of leaders from cutting-edge AI labs have jointly called for slowing down the pace of AI development. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index plunged 5.86% in a single day; Nvidia fell 3.36%, Intel dropped 5.59%, Micron slid 5.25%, Broadcom fell 4.77%, and AMD declined 4.40%. The S&P 500 closed at 7,619.98, down 0.48%. By all usual logic, risk assets should have dropped together—but instead, crypto total market capitalization rose to $2.72 trillion. In the CoinDesk 100, 94 out of 100 stocks finished higher.

Fear and Greed Index: 57. Dropping for the third day in a row—63, 61, 57—the mood is gradually ebbing. BTC is at $76,854, down 0.55% in 24 hours, down 4.34% over 7 days. Trading volume in the past 24 hours is only $537 million, just 0.24 times the average volume over the past 7 days—slowing, with a bearish drift. ETH is at $2,477.8, down 1.90%, down 1.46% over 7 days. Most majors are nearly all green? No—almost all are red: ZEC down 5.22%, WLD down 5.01%, ARB down 4.70%, SUI down 3.23%, SOL down 2.38%, LINK down 2.53%.
This week is a major test for the whole market. It’s being dubbed the "Central Bank Super Week"—on September 16, the Fed holds its rate decision, and the market broadly expects the first hike of the year. The Bank of Japan and the Bank of England are also scheduled to meet in the same week. The probability of a rate hike implied by fed funds futures is already 86.5%, up 14.1 percentage points from the previous trading day. Oil prices are surging again: Brent is up more than 3% and back above $107 per barrel; NY crude is up nearly 3%. The cause is a disruption to Saudi oil pipelines—if they can’t be restored within a few days, global oil supply could lose 4%. Conditions in the Strait of Malacca are also worsening: the Houthis have seized multiple strategic strongholds in the Red Sea. US stock index futures are falling across the board, with Nasdaq futures down more than 1%. In crypto, over the past 24 hours, more than 120,000 people have been liquidated.

The Fear & Greed Index is 63, up 7 points from yesterday’s 56, returning to the Greed zone. BTC is at $77,282, up 0.70% over 24 hours, but down 2.9% over 7 days. ETH is at $2,513.5, up 2.54%, leading among major coins. SOL has regained the $100 level, up 3.49%.
There’s only one driver: the August CPI shoe dropping. The year-on-year figure is 3.4% and month-on-month is 0.4%, both in line with expectations. Core year-on-year at 2.4% also matches expectations, and it has eased from the prior 2.5% to the lowest since March 2021. However, core month-on-month is 0.3%, which is 0.1 percentage point higher than expected. Core services excluding housing rose 0.51% month-on-month, the highest since January of this year, meaning service inflation hasn’t truly eased. On CME, the probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike in September jumped immediately from 70% to about 90%. By year-end, at least two more hikes have been fully priced in.

Fear and greed index 56: down 13 points in a day—yesterday it was 69. This is the fastest single-day cooling in this round. BTC is at $76,854, down 1.66% in 24 hours and 5.43% over 7 days. Intraday it briefly fell to $76,569, a new 7-day low; toward the close it edged back up slightly. ETH is at $2,451, down 0.45% in 24 hours and 2.26% over 7 days. The reason for the drop is straightforward. The U.S. August PPI rose 5.4% year over year, versus the 5.3% forecast; the prior figure was revised up from 4.7% to 4.8%. A 4.2% month-over-month increase in energy prices is the main driver. In the same session, WTI crude surged 6.69% to close at $102.48, the first time in five months it has broken the three-digit mark. Brent closed at $107.63. With risk premiums pushed up by tensions in the Strait of Hormuz and the ports being disrupted by the Houthis, the supply-side risk premium rises. Once oil spikes, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield jumped to 4.965%, the highest since October 2023; the 2-year yield reached 4.577%, a new high since 2024. On the same day, the ECB raised rates by 25 basis points, hitting global bonds across the board. On CME, the probability of a “25 basis point rate hike next week” has already exceeded 70%. Tonight’s CPI is the real checkpoint.

Fear and Greed Index is 69, up 3 points from yesterday, but the market hasn’t really improved. BTC is at $78,125.97, down 0.97%; ETH is at $2,464, down 1.36%. Altcoins are a complete mess: UNI is down 11.61%, WLD down 11.69%, ARB down 11.33%, ETC down 11.94%, DOT down 7.86%, LINK down 6.27%, SUI down 6.94%, and BNB down 4.46%.
The “old coin” outburst mentioned yesterday is exposed today—it gave back everything it gained. ETC was up 11.77% yesterday, but down 11.94% today; not a cent was left. DOT was up 13.33% yesterday, but down 7.86% today. Pure rotation without fundamentals to support it—just a one-day trip.

Fear & Greed Index 66, continuing its fifth straight day of decline—73, 73, 71, 69, 66. BTC is at $78,878, down 0.66% over the past 24 hours. It may not look like much, but volume has surged from yesterday’s 830 million to 1.5 billion—falling on expanding volume. Three days ago it was at $80,341; now it’s back to $78,878, about 3% below the 7-day high of $81,270. ETH is at $2,497.7, down 0.23%, with volume unchanged.
Today’s most noteworthy point is the shift in market style. The gainers are all familiar faces from the previous cycle: DOT up 13.33%, ATOM up 11.88%, ETC up 11.77%, VET up 9.99%, EGLD up 8.16%. The losers are all the narrative stars from this round: WLD down 6.05%, SOPH—which surged 55% yesterday—straight up collapsed 21.7%, OP down 6.09%, PENDLE down 5.82%, and ENA down 4.17%. Funds are moving out of overvalued story coins and into the older “blue-chip” chains that have already been hit hard. This kind of rotation usually shows up in the later half of the trend—profits are still there, but it’s no longer the time to just pick up easy money.