小韭菜情报

Little Garlic Chives · Web3 On-Chain Insights into Crypto Assets (09-29 Special Edition)
Benchmark period: 09-28 08:35 to 09-29 08:35 | First-hand analysis of Web3 on-chain vertical tracks

【Deep-Learning Model Intensive Appraisal · Strategic Answer】
Within the past 24 hours, Web3 on-chain sectors have seen intensified long-versus-short competition due to resonance between the liquidity core and macro variables. Funds have rapidly rebalanced across undervalued and overvalued segments. Intraday, focus on how positions are being absorbed in key integer resistance zones and on the resistance to policy transmission.

【24H Core First-Hand Dynamic Checklist】
• Blockchain.com plans to raise about US$500 million through an IPO, with a target valuation up to US$6 billion: The crypto exchange and wallet services provider Blockchain.com intends to raise roughly US$500 million this year via an IPO, targeting a valuation between US$4 billion and US$6 billion.
• The “gold rush” for restaking is cooling off; profits at Ethereum’s leading protocols have shrunk significantly: As restaking yields continue to decline and smart-contract risks rise, ether.fi, a top Ethereum liquidity restaking protocol, is gradually exiting its restaking business and shifting toward a crypto “new bank” model.
• Bitcoin breaks above 84,000 USDT: According to Bitget market data, Bitcoin has broken above 84,000 USDT. It is currently quoted at 84,004.89 USDT, with an intraday gain of 0.57%.

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Little Garlic Sprout · Frontline AI and Compute Infrastructure Intelligence (09-29 Special Issue)
Benchmark period: 09-28 08:35 to 09-29 08:35 ｜ First-hand assessment of frontier AI vertical tracks

【Deep-Dive Model Analysis · Strategic Answers】
Over the past 24 hours, the frontier AI track has seen intensified long-vs-short conflict due to resonance between the liquidity core and macro variables. Funds are rapidly rebalancing between over- and undervalued segments. During the day, focus on the positioning and order-flow reception within key integer resistance zones, as well as resistance to policy transmission.

【24H Core First-Hand Live Checklist】
• U.S. stocks: semiconductors, memory, optical communications, and Neocloud shares all moved lower. ARM and CRDO both fell more than 8%. According to BIT (bit.com) market data, U.S. markets on Monday (September 28) closed lower across the three major indexes: the Dow fell 0.67%, the S&P 500 dropped 0.77%, and the Nasdaq declined 0.92%.
• Technical analysis: Nvidia’s record share repurchase lifted the stock, but the 232–234 USD resistance zone is currently a hurdle. While this repurchase (full news story available here) is a supportive signal for Nvidia and the broader AI industry, the chart suggests the market has not yet accepted higher prices.
• Nvidia aims to control AI agents via a built-in chip “watchdog”: Nvidia is combining its OpenShell agent software with the new hardware watchdog “Sentry” to create an open agent security platform.

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Little Chinese chives · Global macro market brief (09-29 Special)
Benchmark period: 09-28 08:35 to 09-29 08:35 ｜ Global macro vertical track — first-hand assessment

【Deep-Dive Judgment by Large Models · Strategic Answer】
Over the past 24 hours, the global macro track has seen heightened resonance between the liquidity center and macro variables, leading to a markedly intensified long-versus-short game. Funds are rapidly rebalancing between overvalued and undervalued sectors. Intraday, focus should be placed on how chips are absorbed within key integer resistance ranges, as well as on resistance to policy transmission.

【24H Core First-Hand Dynamic Checklist】
• Explanation for the flattening US yield curve: The Fed has tightened policy, but this does not automatically imply a downturn. The curve now reflects how the market is interpreting, in real time, the Fed’s tightening alongside the heavy supply of Treasury bonds. Therefore, the spread between 2s and 10s may be seen as the headline signal for rate-sensitive assets.
• Tracking the Middle East situation: US-Iran talks focus on the Strait of Hormuz and the nuclear program. Trump denies that he would be willing to lift sanctions and grant asset concessions. According to people familiar with the matter, Iranian officials privately feel pessimistic about reaching an agreement with Washington before the US midterm elections on November 3.
• ING lowers its year-end AUD/USD target to 0.72: Since most of the gains have already been priced in, the Aussie reaction may depend on statements from the Reserve Bank of Australia and Governor Bullock’s press conference—especially whether policy remains open in November.

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Small Chives · Web3 On-Chain and Crypto Asset Research (09-28 Special Issue)
Benchmark period: 09-27 08:35 to 09-28 08:35｜ Web3 On-Chain Vertical Sector — first-hand assessment

【In-depth Model Research · Strategic Answers】
In the past 24 hours, the Web3 on-chain sector has seen intensified long-versus-short competition driven by resonance between liquidity hubs and macro variables. Funds are rapidly rebalancing between undervalued and overvalued segments. Intraday, focus on the chip absorption and policy-transmission resistance within key integer resistance zones.

【24H Core First-Hand Dynamic Checklist】
• Altcoins continue to rotate persistently. In the cross-chain infrastructure segment, QNT leads; GRT and W follow. Solana ecosystem tokens: according to HTX market information, the crypto market remains range-bound and choppy. Bitcoin is currently at $85,000, while Ethereum is currently at $2,700.
• Bitcoin breaks above $85,000; Ethereum breaks above $2,700: according to HTX market information, Bitcoin has broken through $85,000, with a 24-hour gain of 0.75%.
• DYORSWAP: more than 200 ETH has already been compensated to users affected by the “fake GIWA mainnet” incident; the investigation is still ongoing. This network has a bridge and batcher similar to OP Stack, deployed at 2026-09-27 02:10:59 (UTC+8).

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Little Niu Chai · Frontier AI and Compute Infrastructure Intelligence (09-28 Special Issue)
Benchmark period: 09-27 08:35 to 09-28 08:35｜First-hand analysis of frontier AI vertical sectors

【In-Depth Analysis of Large Models · Strategic Answers】
Over the past 24 hours, the frontier AI track has been influenced by resonance between the liquidity core and macro variables, significantly intensifying the long-versus-short game. Capital is rapidly rebalancing between under- and over-valued sectors. Intraday, focus on where chips are being absorbed in key integer resistance zones and on the resistance to policy transmission.

【24H Core First-Hand Dynamic Checklist】
• In the latest U.S. earnings call, mentions of open models surged 6x year-over-year. In August, open models accounted for V: Financial Times: In the latest U.S. earnings call, the number of mentions of open models jumped 6x year-over-year; in August, open models made up 56% of the Vercel token and 40% of AT&T’s artificial intelligence workloads.
• Robinhood ecosystem AI concept coin ORBIO’s market cap hits a new high of $100 million: ORBIO was issued on the Pons platform, with Nvidia stock tokens as the liquidity pool.
• Amid tensions in artificial intelligence, Anthropic CEO Amodei will attend a White House dinner with Trump: the dinner between Trump and Amodei will be seen by Washington and the industry as a signal that, after a year of legal and regulatory frictions, Anthropic is seeking to repair relations with the government.

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Small Chinese chives · Global macro market watch (09-28 special issue)
Benchmark period: 09-27 08:35 to 09-28 08:35 ｜ Global macro vertical track—first-hand analysis

【Deep-Dive Model Judgment · Strategic Answers】
Over the past 24 hours, the global macro track has seen heightened long/short contention due to resonance between the liquidity center and macro variables. Funds have accelerated rebalancing between over- and undervalued sectors. During the day, focus on the order-flow absorption in key integer resistance zones and the resistance from policy transmission.

【24H Core First-Hand Dynamic Checklist】
• Due to elevated price risk appetite, the Bank of Japan meeting minutes show dissent regarding accelerating rate hikes: the records indicate that the BOJ’s stance in July was not consistent—board member Takata Hajime argued that the rate should be adjusted immediately to around 1.25%, because he believes global inflation risks require a more flexible approach.
• Swiss National Bank President Schlegel said Switzerland’s inflation picture is healthy: his remarks reinforced the view that, although the Federal Reserve and the ECB continue raising rates to deal with surging energy costs, the central bank faces little pressure to take action in the near term.
• Venezuela’s oil recovery may cost more than $100 billion: the Trump administration views Venezuela’s new oil orders as a major opportunity to revitalize the industry of the world’s largest crude-oil resource holder.

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Small chives · Web3 on-chain and crypto asset key indicators (09-27 special issue)
Benchmark period: 09-26 08:35 to 09-27 08:35 ｜ Web3 on-chain vertical track one-hand assessment

【Deep-Dive by Large Model · Strategic Answer】
On-chain coin supply and macro liquidity are showing a distinct “layered accumulation” pattern. On-chain indicators show that after Bitcoin’s adjustment, the 30-day and 365-day moving-average ratio of MVRV has broken above 1.0, confirming that the market has officially moved out of the early buildup phase and established a primary uptrend structure. Although long-term stops released near the 84,000 USD area amount to nearly 500 million dollars, and centralized institution signature-chain failures have triggered an on-chain cleansing, spot BTC ETFs have continuously net-absorbed nearly 3 billion dollars over 7 days, effectively absorbing sell pressure from miners and older holders. The divergence between Coinbase negative premium and high ETF inflows suggests that current buying power is mainly driven by Wall Street long-duration bond hedging and basis arbitrage—not by retail investors blindly chasing rallies. Meanwhile, the industry’s evolution is undergoing a qualitative leap: Ethena’s integration with U.S. equity perpetuals, Backpack and Robinhood accelerating tokenized stock settlement on-chain, and Citi together with Bullish pushing a direct link between shareholder registries—RWA is evolving from a simple mapping of U.S. Treasuries into an on-chainization of an entire spectrum of U.S. stock assets, creating a new liquidity flywheel at the trillion-dollar scale. In the near- to mid-term outlook, mainstream spot within the 82,000 to 84,000 USD range is building a high-intensity support platform of stacked positions, and after deleveraging the overall bullish trend remains firm. However, with marginal weakening signals in Total2 momentum, highly crowded altcoins face a differentiation/clearing process, and capital is expected to keep concentrating into leading assets and tokenized-stock new infrastructure that can generate real yield.

【24H Core One-Hand Dynamic Checklist】
• The Crypto Fear & Greed Index falls to 70, cooling “greed” sentiment: According to Alternative data, today’s Crypto Fear & Greed Index is 70 (yesterday was 74), indicating a cooldown in market “greed” sentiment.
• Bitcoin Q3 is up temporarily by about 43%, one of the best third quarters in history: According to CoinGlass data, Bitcoin’s 2026 third quarter year-to-date has risen by about 43%, making it one of its best-performing third quarters on record.

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Small Leek · Frontier AI and Computing Power Infrastructure Weekly Brief (09-27 Special Issue)
Benchmark cycle: 09-26 08:35 to 09-27 08:35 ｜ First-hand analysis of frontier AI vertical sectors

【Deep Model Assessment · Strategic Answers】
Anthropic is in talks for 1 gigawatt of computing power and a $40 billion data center transaction—signaling that the leading-model arms race has officially expanded from the multi-GPU cluster scale to the gigawatt-level energy infrastructure dimension. However, Goldman Sachs’ estimates reveal a harsh reality: top cloud providers need to achieve about $300 billion in annualized revenue to cover capital expenditures, forcing the market to scrutinize monetization efficiency under heavy investment. On the supply side, control-layer optimization represented by SoL-Pi reduces Agent token usage by 49%. Combined with sparse attention and inference pruning, the model’s inference cost for single effective tasks is collapsing at a multi-fold pace, compelling model layers to “clean” the market with free-dimension reduction strategies. On the demand side, only 5% of enterprise deployments generate strategic value; on-device offline models are still unable to close the loop on mobile due to memory bandwidth constraints. The transmission mechanism is clear: energy, optical communications, and supercomputing infrastructure at the bottom layer—because of their heavy-asset scarcity and high barriers—continue to enjoy capital premiums. Meanwhile, intermediate-layer “shell” tools that rely purely on upstream API calls lose pricing power as leading models expand natively and inference costs drop sharply. The industry is now entering a brutal wave of intermediate-layer elimination. In the future, certainty belongs to infrastructure emperors with gigawatt-level energy scheduling capabilities and engineering integrators who master closed-loop control of on-device vertical scenarios.

【24H Core First-Hand Dynamic Checklist】
• AI agents are racing to make quantum-secure Bitcoin cheaper—and they’re winning: a public competition hosted by StarkWare, Yukon Research, and Eigen Labs will estimate the cost of trading quantum-secure Bitcoin at about 320.
• Vitalik reviews offline local on-device AI knowledge base applications: phone-side model performance is still weaker than on laptop—Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin posted on X, sharing real-world testing of a mobile offline local knowledge base app built by the community team for the decentralized bounty protocol poidh.

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Little Chive · Global Macro Market Dossier (09-27 Special Issue)
Benchmark period: 09-26 08:35 to 09-27 08:35 ｜ First-hand research on global macro vertical sectors

【Deep-Dive by Large Models · Strategic Answers】
U.S. Treasury benchmark yields have broken to a 19-year extreme, compounded by a surge of large-scale fiscal deficit bond issuance and the sharp jump in the probability of a CME-driven October rate hike to 64.2%. This has completely shattered the illusion of rapid liquidity easing. The broad-based rise in long-end discount rates is actively reshaping global cross-asset valuation models. Unlike previous tightening cycles, this time the stickiness of inflation has been deeply intensified by the energy-supply disruption risk triggered by the geopolitical crisis across the Strait of Hormuz. Expectations for tighter natural-gas supply have spilled over into next summer. As supply-chain bottlenecks on the supply side restrict deliveries, the oil-and-gas risk premium is being locked in as fuel for a second round of stagflation momentum. With the U.S. dollar index entering a long-cycle upswing—driven by interest-rate differential advantages and a “risk-off” safe-haven pull—this accelerates depreciation pressure on non-USD currencies and tightens offshore liquidity.

On the asset rebalancing front, severe valuation divergence has emerged within the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq: only technology giants with abundant free cash flow and an urgent need for AI computing can withstand the erosion from discount-rate increases, while high-valued growth assets without earnings support are facing the pain of deleveraging and unwinding. In long/short hedging strategies, firmly establish an anti-stagflation defense package: go long spot gold and upstream oil-and-gas commodities to capture sovereign-deficit credit dilution and the premium from geopolitical supply disruptions; short non-USD weaker currencies and long-duration U.S. Treasuries when markets are high, and hedge downward for fragile high-multiple equity exposures.

【24H Core First-Hand Dynamic Checklist】
• U.S. 10-year Treasury yields are at the highest level in nearly two decades: driven by sticky inflation, heavy bond issuance, and the investment frenzy fueled by artificial intelligence, the benchmark yield has climbed to a peak level in 19 years.
• Probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged in October at 64.2% for a 25 bp hike: according to CME “FedWatch” data, the probability of the Fed holding rates steady in October is 35.8%, while the probability of a 25-basis-point hike is 64.2%.
• Morgan Stanley: shifting to bullish on the U.S. dollar; higher yields will continue to squeeze global risk appetite: Morgan Stanley has revised its earlier bearish view on the dollar, expecting the dollar’s strength to persist through mid-2027.

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Small chives · Web3 on-chain and encryption asset internal reference (09-26 Special Issue)
Benchmark period: 09-25 08:35 to 09-26 08:35｜ Web3 on-chain vertical track first-hand research judgment

【In-depth model research · Strategic answers】
On-chain microstructure of exchange holdings shows that Binance recorded a net outflow of over 13,800 BTC in a single day, the largest daily outflow since 2023; meanwhile, long-term holders have realized only 72% in profit, with profit realized in a single day of about $2.4 billion—significantly lower than the hundred-billion-level sell-pressure range at historical tops, validating with high confidence that chips are accelerating into cold wallets. Combined with spot BTC and ETH ETFs maintaining consecutive net inflows for 6 days and 5 days respectively, spot liquidity is displaying structural tight locking.

Regarding macro linkage and the RWA transmission mechanism: the $18 billion quarterly block option delivery cleared smoothly, relieving near-term suppression, and the correlation between BTC and gold rose to 0.52. Aave V4 has launched tokenized U.S. stock collateralized lending; Ethena, together with Binance, expanded the basis arbitrage to stock perpetual contracts. In coordination with the CFTC allowing tokenized assets to serve as clearing collateral, RWA is evolving from static yield generation into a cross-market, high-frequency capital hub connecting Wall Street and DeFi.

Trend conclusions and long/short assessment: the secondary sell pressure from a cyberattack involving centralized institutions has already been strongly absorbed on-chain. The $85,000 miners’ production cost line has completed a qualitative transformation from resistance into a “iron floor.” Maintain a clear absolute structural bias toward long positions in the short to mid term. The $84,000 to $85,000 range has been constructed as high-confidence support. The on-chain ecosystem is accelerating into an incremental bull cycle driven by cross-market tokenization of assets.

【24H Core First-Hand Dynamic Checklist】
• Vitalik: Ethereum nodes can now complete synchronization within half a day. The upcoming “Glamsterdam” upgrade will further improve node sync, and Nimbus’s new sync protocol has adopted related mechanisms.
• Magic Eden warns that old Ethereum NFT listings may be subject to payment-processor attacks: a flaw in Limit Break’s payment processor V2 puts old Magic Eden Ethereum listings at risk, prompting a white-hat organization to rescue more than 23,000 NFTs.

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Small chives · Cutting-edge AI and Compute Infrastructure Brief (09-26 Special Issue)
Benchmark period: 09-25 08:35 to 09-26 08:35 ｜ First-hand judgments on cutting-edge AI vertical tracks

【In-Depth Model Research · Strategic Answers】
The global AI industry is undergoing a bidirectional polarizing reshuffle of compute infrastructure and model architecture. On the physical layer, Elon Musk’s Colossus 2 is ramping up with 1.21 million GB300 chips, Nscale has secured $3.36 billion in financing, and Solidigm plans an IPO at a valuation of $150 billion, validating Goldman Sachs’ prediction that $1.73 trillion in capital expenditures is building an extremely high “physical moat” of power supply and million-GPU clusters. However, token economics has reached a stringent inflection point: Anthropic’s mandatory billing for refusals to comply with safety constraints and OpenAI’s preparation of a $500 high-tier package signal the end of the compute-subsidy era. On the architecture front, non-autoregressive decision models such as Fastino 340M and NeoHorse 4B directly target the inference redundancy of conventional large models—sidestepping token-by-token generation to achieve CPU-level ultra-fast decision-making. In addition, frequent cases of agent overreach and out-of-scope behavior triggering regulatory “responsibility penetration” by the FTC have made industrial segmentation inevitable. Physical compute assets, ultra-dense storage, and runtime governance platforms will command deterministic monopoly-like premium valuation; meanwhile, mid-layer “wrapper” applications lacking proprietary data and physical execution capabilities will accelerate toward clearing to zero under the bidirectional squeeze between on-device lightweight decision models and the super-apps of tech giants.

【24H Core First-Hand Dynamic Watchlist】
• Musk: By year-end, the number of chips in the AI compute cluster Colossus 2 will increase to 1.21 million, more than doubling from today. Musk disclosed that Colossus 2 is expected to go live with 220,000 GB300 chips next week, with another 220,000 scheduled for launch in November; if progress is on track, another 220,000 may be launched by end of December.
• AI compute company Nscale secures convertible-bond financing of $3.36 billion ahead of its IPO: the financing includes $2.36 billion completed at closing, plus an additional $1 billion commitment from Nvidia to be added in mid-November 2026.

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Little chives · Global macro market dashboard intelligence (09-26 Special Issue)
Benchmark period: 09-25 08:35 to 09-26 08:35 ｜ Global macro vertical-track firsthand analysis

【In-depth intelligence from the Large Model · Strategic Answers】
Over the past 24 hours, global macro has shown a clear stagflation pattern alongside a reshaping of discount rates: the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield surged to 5.23%, and the 30-year moved above 5.5%. Sovereign bond yields worldwide have entered decades-long high territory; the equity-and-bond risk premium has fallen to historical lows, and U.S. stock valuations are approaching a critical turning point. Although U.S.-Iran discussions related to the Strait of Hormuz triggered a technical negotiation, causing crude oil to tumble intraday by 4%, real logistics bottlenecks remain unresolved—super-large oil tanker freight rates hit a record of $1.27 million per day, and diesel supply remains tight. Meanwhile, the one-year Michigan inflation expectation climbed to 4.6%, forcing markets to price in a Fed rate-hike probability of around 70%. Joint official action by the U.S. and Japan targeting undervaluation of the yen further amplifies the risk of unwinds in global carry trades and FX volatility.

The strategic conclusion is extremely clear: the macro cycle has shifted from being driven primarily by liquidity premia to a comprehensive anti-stagflation defense and valuation-clearing phase. Asset allocation will firmly implement both long/short hedging strategies: short high-valuation tech growth stocks that are sensitive to duration, and go long crude oil for the decline in the geopolitical premium; meanwhile, go long spot gold with characteristics that hedge against both fiscal deficit risk and inflation. Also, rebalance into short-term cash-management tools and high-yield assets in the short end of U.S. Treasuries to lock in near risk-free high discounted returns, and ride through the storm of tightening global liquidity.

【24H Core Firsthand Dynamic Checklist】
• Nigeria joins the International Energy Agency; crude oil production hits a six-year high: Nigeria is set to formulate ambitious energy plans over the coming decades, including expanding its oil industry and accelerating development of the renewables sector.
• As oil prices fall and stocks rise, the U.S. dollar declines: the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY00) fell by -0.32% on Friday.
• Oil prices drop sharply; hopes to reach an agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz: November WTI crude (CLX26) closed down -2.20 (-2.33%); November RBOB gasoline (RBX26) closed down -0.1455 (-4.37%).

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