陈砚舟
62 Posts
陈砚舟
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金融程序员出生｜加密投研｜美股投资｜币安20%永久返佣邀请码：0X8888｜推特@Ton1180490
Occasional Trader
2.1 Years
18 Following
54 Followers
79 Liked
Posts
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Trading MisconceptionsMany people have misconceptions about trading. For example, that with a small amount of capital you should do short-term trades so you can roll your capital bigger—this is absolutely completely a misconception. That way of thinking is basically trying to trade time for space, hoping to get rich overnight. With a small amount of capital, you should do medium- to long-term trades instead, so you can build it bigger.
Is one sheet of paper thin enough? One sheet folded 27 times becomes 13 kilometers thick; fold it another 10 times to reach 37 folds, and the Earth still isn’t as thick… If you fold it 105 times, the entire universe won’t be able to hold it.
If you have 30,000 in capital, what you should think about is how to catch a wave and turn it into triple, then in the next wave triple it again… that would be four or five hundred thousand. Not thinking about making 10% today and 20% tomorrow… because sooner or later you’ll end up playing yourself to death.
Trading Misconceptions
Many people have misconceptions about trading. For example, that with a small amount of capital you should do short-term trades so you can roll your capital bigger—this is absolutely completely a misconception. That way of thinking is basically trying to trade time for space, hoping to get rich overnight. With a small amount of capital, you should do medium- to long-term trades instead, so you can build it bigger.
Is one sheet of paper thin enough? One sheet folded 27 times becomes 13 kilometers thick; fold it another 10 times to reach 37 folds, and the Earth still isn’t as thick… If you fold it 105 times, the entire universe won’t be able to hold it.
If you have 30,000 in capital, what you should think about is how to catch a wave and turn it into triple, then in the next wave triple it again… that would be four or five hundred thousand. Not thinking about making 10% today and 20% tomorrow… because sooner or later you’ll end up playing yourself to death.
Is one sheet of paper thin enough? One sheet folded 27 times becomes 13 kilometers thick; fold it another 10 times to reach 37 folds, and the Earth still isn’t as thick… If you fold it 105 times, the entire universe won’t be able to hold it.
If you have 30,000 in capital, what you should think about is how to catch a wave and turn it into triple, then in the next wave triple it again… that would be four or five hundred thousand. Not thinking about making 10% today and 20% tomorrow… because sooner or later you’ll end up playing yourself to death.
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What Is the Core of CompoundingPeople say compounding is the eighth wonder of the world. For example, making money by trading crypto seems pretty simple. If you have 1M in capital, and you earn doubled returns every year, then in theory it’s extremely straightforward. After all, in the crypto circle, if you don’t get returns dozens of times every year, you’re always looked down on.
1M, 2M, 4M, 8M, 16M… After four years, you’ll have 16M.
But this is only a mathematical result. In reality, it’s not easy to achieve—so what exactly interrupts your compounding?
It’s making a big mistake.
Missing the mark doesn’t count as a big mistake. If you make an error but stop-loss in time, it also isn’t a big mistake. Only when you use high leverage to hold the position and finally get cut and liquidated—then that counts as a major mistake. No matter how many times you were right before, once you make one major mistake, everything you did right before becomes zero, and compounding will be stopped.
What Is the Core of Compounding
People say compounding is the eighth wonder of the world. For example, making money by trading crypto seems pretty simple. If you have 1M in capital, and you earn doubled returns every year, then in theory it’s extremely straightforward. After all, in the crypto circle, if you don’t get returns dozens of times every year, you’re always looked down on.
1M, 2M, 4M, 8M, 16M… After four years, you’ll have 16M.
But this is only a mathematical result. In reality, it’s not easy to achieve—so what exactly interrupts your compounding?
It’s making a big mistake.
Missing the mark doesn’t count as a big mistake. If you make an error but stop-loss in time, it also isn’t a big mistake. Only when you use high leverage to hold the position and finally get cut and liquidated—then that counts as a major mistake. No matter how many times you were right before, once you make one major mistake, everything you did right before becomes zero, and compounding will be stopped.
1M, 2M, 4M, 8M, 16M… After four years, you’ll have 16M.
But this is only a mathematical result. In reality, it’s not easy to achieve—so what exactly interrupts your compounding?
It’s making a big mistake.
Missing the mark doesn’t count as a big mistake. If you make an error but stop-loss in time, it also isn’t a big mistake. Only when you use high leverage to hold the position and finally get cut and liquidated—then that counts as a major mistake. No matter how many times you were right before, once you make one major mistake, everything you did right before becomes zero, and compounding will be stopped.
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Trading MindsetWhether you’re trading short-term or long-term, a single big market move that earns 200%—as long as you can hold on to most of the profit, then when you come across another big opportunity next time and earn another 200%, that’s 4x… As long as you can protect your profits, you can compound from there. What’s the point of making 200% this time and then giving it all back and losing again? There’s no such thing as missing out in the trading market—there are only two outcomes: loss and gain.
Some people may feel like they’ve found the right path and that they’re about to get rich overnight.
Finding the way only means your probability of making money has increased.
In reality, this kind of trading method places very high demands on your mindset, patience, and nerve.
Trading Mindset
Whether you’re trading short-term or long-term, a single big market move that earns 200%—as long as you can hold on to most of the profit, then when you come across another big opportunity next time and earn another 200%, that’s 4x… As long as you can protect your profits, you can compound from there. What’s the point of making 200% this time and then giving it all back and losing again? There’s no such thing as missing out in the trading market—there are only two outcomes: loss and gain.
Some people may feel like they’ve found the right path and that they’re about to get rich overnight.
Finding the way only means your probability of making money has increased.
In reality, this kind of trading method places very high demands on your mindset, patience, and nerve.
Some people may feel like they’ve found the right path and that they’re about to get rich overnight.
Finding the way only means your probability of making money has increased.
In reality, this kind of trading method places very high demands on your mindset, patience, and nerve.
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Trading PrinciplesThere’s a very important principle in trading: don’t make small gains, don’t incur big losses.
Eight simple words, but actually very hard to do. For example:
You opened a position at 20,000, and right after opening it, it rose to 21,000. You were happy and took profit, making 5%. Then the market kept rising all the way to 25,000… you still made 5%, but you missed out on 50%.;
Then you remind yourself that you need to make big money. This time you definitely won’t take profit. The market then goes back down to 20,000. You open another position, and after you open it, it rises again to 21,000. You remind yourself, learn from the last time, and hold on to make big money. The market then goes back down to 20,000 and even breaks below 20,000 to 19,500—you stop out.
Trading Principles
There’s a very important principle in trading: don’t make small gains, don’t incur big losses.
Eight simple words, but actually very hard to do. For example:
You opened a position at 20,000, and right after opening it, it rose to 21,000. You were happy and took profit, making 5%. Then the market kept rising all the way to 25,000… you still made 5%, but you missed out on 50%.;
Then you remind yourself that you need to make big money. This time you definitely won’t take profit. The market then goes back down to 20,000. You open another position, and after you open it, it rises again to 21,000. You remind yourself, learn from the last time, and hold on to make big money. The market then goes back down to 20,000 and even breaks below 20,000 to 19,500—you stop out.
Eight simple words, but actually very hard to do. For example:
You opened a position at 20,000, and right after opening it, it rose to 21,000. You were happy and took profit, making 5%. Then the market kept rising all the way to 25,000… you still made 5%, but you missed out on 50%.;
Then you remind yourself that you need to make big money. This time you definitely won’t take profit. The market then goes back down to 20,000. You open another position, and after you open it, it rises again to 21,000. You remind yourself, learn from the last time, and hold on to make big money. The market then goes back down to 20,000 and even breaks below 20,000 to 19,500—you stop out.
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This week, gold saw an oversold rebound after a sharp drop caused by rising expectations of further Fed rate hikes, with a strong support holding around 4280.
As of now, the overhead resistance is 4500–4530; only after a breakout can the trend be considered to have shifted. Below, support is 4400–4430. The decisive factor tonight will be the impact of the August Non-Farm Payrolls data at 20:30. The long-term logic remains unchanged: the central bank has been continuously purchasing gold to provide support. For those looking to invest, dollar-cost averaging into gold is still a good option!$XAU
{future}(XAUUSDT)
This week, gold saw an oversold rebound after a sharp drop caused by rising expectations of further Fed rate hikes, with a strong support holding around 4280.
As of now, the overhead resistance is 4500–4530; only after a breakout can the trend be considered to have shifted. Below, support is 4400–4430. The decisive factor tonight will be the impact of the August Non-Farm Payrolls data at 20:30. The long-term logic remains unchanged: the central bank has been continuously purchasing gold to provide support. For those looking to invest, dollar-cost averaging into gold is still a good option!$XAU
As of now, the overhead resistance is 4500–4530; only after a breakout can the trend be considered to have shifted. Below, support is 4400–4430. The decisive factor tonight will be the impact of the August Non-Farm Payrolls data at 20:30. The long-term logic remains unchanged: the central bank has been continuously purchasing gold to provide support. For those looking to invest, dollar-cost averaging into gold is still a good option!$XAU
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The momentum driving Bitcoin up within this range has been quite strong. Although it is currently trading in a high-level oscillation area, the probability of an upward move from this support-resistance swap zone is still very high. However, $82,000 is a strong resistance level that needs to be watched. Tonight’s NFP data will play a very important role! $BTC
{future}(BTCUSDT)
The momentum driving Bitcoin up within this range has been quite strong. Although it is currently trading in a high-level oscillation area, the probability of an upward move from this support-resistance swap zone is still very high. However, $82,000 is a strong resistance level that needs to be watched. Tonight’s NFP data will play a very important role! $BTC
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SPCX: This wave has rebounded from the bottom at 105 to the current $150—this is the key level to watch!\nYou need to pay special attention to the $150 level; it will determine whether the structure can truly hold and continue extending the uptrend from here! If the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls at 20:30 tonight comes out bearish, it will likely kick off the next phase of the downtrend! $SPCXB \n{spot}(SPCXBUSDT)
SPCX: This wave has rebounded from the bottom at 105 to the current $150—this is the key level to watch!\nYou need to pay special attention to the $150 level; it will determine whether the structure can truly hold and continue extending the uptrend from here! If the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls at 20:30 tonight comes out bearish, it will likely kick off the next phase of the downtrend! $SPCXB \n
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Bullish
Bitcoin has recently experienced a dramatic surge in value, with its price soaring and breaking through the $80,000 mark.
This sudden spike can be attributed to a combination of macroeconomic factors and speculation within the cryptocurrency market.
|The U.S. Treasury’s plan to conduct large-scale bond buybacks helped drive this rapid rally, as it lowered bond prices and thereby encouraged investors to seek other avenues with higher returns.
{future}(BTCUSDT)
Bitcoin has recently experienced a dramatic surge in value, with its price soaring and breaking through the $80,000 mark.
This sudden spike can be attributed to a combination of macroeconomic factors and speculation within the cryptocurrency market.
|The U.S. Treasury’s plan to conduct large-scale bond buybacks helped drive this rapid rally, as it lowered bond prices and thereby encouraged investors to seek other avenues with higher returns.
This sudden spike can be attributed to a combination of macroeconomic factors and speculation within the cryptocurrency market.
|The U.S. Treasury’s plan to conduct large-scale bond buybacks helped drive this rapid rally, as it lowered bond prices and thereby encouraged investors to seek other avenues with higher returns.
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Bearish
$ASTEROLD space dog—are we about to "go 0" like this?!
$ASTEROLD space dog—are we about to "go 0" like this?!
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Bullish
Unbelievable! In just 1 hour, a $1.2 billion liquidation! Just waiting for you to hook up and have some fun with your “Seven Sisters Festival” — and then we’ll give you a shot. #比特币
{future}(BTCUSDT)
Unbelievable! In just 1 hour, a $1.2 billion liquidation! Just waiting for you to hook up and have some fun with your “Seven Sisters Festival” — and then we’ll give you a shot. #比特币
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Bullish
The bull is still pulling the market—it's just too hot, and it has boosted the entire meme coin market #牛来
The bull is still pulling the market—it's just too hot, and it has boosted the entire meme coin market #牛来
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Micron MU latest thoughts
Rising from the bottom 730 to around 1000—almost 40% now! I currently think the long (buy) risk-reward ratio isn’t good. The price is approaching a strong resistance zone, the risk-reward is extremely poor, and taking a long position has high risk. $MU
{future}(MUUSDT)
Micron MU latest thoughts
Rising from the bottom 730 to around 1000—almost 40% now! I currently think the long (buy) risk-reward ratio isn’t good. The price is approaching a strong resistance zone, the risk-reward is extremely poor, and taking a long position has high risk. $MU
Rising from the bottom 730 to around 1000—almost 40% now! I currently think the long (buy) risk-reward ratio isn’t good. The price is approaching a strong resistance zone, the risk-reward is extremely poor, and taking a long position has high risk. $MU
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Most people spend their entire lives relentlessly optimizing themselves within rules set by others, but they never stop to ask: Who made these rules? Who benefits from them? Even if you come first under the wrong rules, you’re still going to lose.
Most people spend their entire lives relentlessly optimizing themselves within rules set by others, but they never stop to ask: Who made these rules? Who benefits from them? Even if you come first under the wrong rules, you’re still going to lose.
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Bullish
⭐ What are quality assets over the next 20 years?
If you believe humanity has a future, then buy gold.
If you believe society is moving toward a virtual world, then buy Bitcoin.
If you believe the United States is humanity’s light, then buy stocks in the largest few tech companies in the US.
If you believe China is the hope of the future, then buy stocks in the largest few central state-owned enterprises.
Investing is that simple—find the biggest uptrend and hold long-term.
⭐ What are quality assets over the next 20 years?
If you believe humanity has a future, then buy gold.
If you believe society is moving toward a virtual world, then buy Bitcoin.
If you believe the United States is humanity’s light, then buy stocks in the largest few tech companies in the US.
If you believe China is the hope of the future, then buy stocks in the largest few central state-owned enterprises.
Investing is that simple—find the biggest uptrend and hold long-term.
If you believe humanity has a future, then buy gold.
If you believe society is moving toward a virtual world, then buy Bitcoin.
If you believe the United States is humanity’s light, then buy stocks in the largest few tech companies in the US.
If you believe China is the hope of the future, then buy stocks in the largest few central state-owned enterprises.
Investing is that simple—find the biggest uptrend and hold long-term.
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Is investing more about mindset, or is technical analysis/fundamental research more important?
At first, I thought fundamentals were the most important.
Later, I realized that technical analysis works better.
Only at the end did I understand that mindset is the root.
Fundamentals can be learned slowly, and techniques can be practiced slowly.
But as for mindset, most of it is talent. Being able to throw all your money down without changing your expression is a kind of ability—most people can’t do that.
If you stay in this field to the very end, the ceiling is your ability to control your capital.
How much money you can manage is what you’re worthy of achieving.#投资
Is investing more about mindset, or is technical analysis/fundamental research more important?
At first, I thought fundamentals were the most important.
Later, I realized that technical analysis works better.
Only at the end did I understand that mindset is the root.
Fundamentals can be learned slowly, and techniques can be practiced slowly.
But as for mindset, most of it is talent. Being able to throw all your money down without changing your expression is a kind of ability—most people can’t do that.
If you stay in this field to the very end, the ceiling is your ability to control your capital.
How much money you can manage is what you’re worthy of achieving.#投资
At first, I thought fundamentals were the most important.
Later, I realized that technical analysis works better.
Only at the end did I understand that mindset is the root.
Fundamentals can be learned slowly, and techniques can be practiced slowly.
But as for mindset, most of it is talent. Being able to throw all your money down without changing your expression is a kind of ability—most people can’t do that.
If you stay in this field to the very end, the ceiling is your ability to control your capital.
How much money you can manage is what you’re worthy of achieving.#投资
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Bullish
Verified
US July CPI will be released tomorrow at 20:30!
My understanding is that if you look at the gold stock price movement, you’ll know it’s going up. So big funds have already learned through information channels that CPI is below expectations, and that isn’t really a secret anymore—only retail investors are still guessing. This time, the big jump in gold stocks started on July 30, before the small non-farm payrolls came out, and it kept rising until the day the non-farm data was released. Retail investors always trade stocks based on news. In reality, big funds know at least a day earlier than you—sometimes even a week.
But then again, the US non-farm data and CPI are basically “written with eyes closed.” Whatever political needs it has, that’s what the numbers become. Once you understand what US politics needs at this stage, you don’t have to guess—you can know the outcome.
The US people’s game of tactics is still too low-level. Chinese gold stocks identified a month ago that the reality is the Fed won’t dare to raise rates, only cut them. Everything afterward is just performance. #美国7月CPI与PPI数据本周出炉
US July CPI will be released tomorrow at 20:30!
My understanding is that if you look at the gold stock price movement, you’ll know it’s going up. So big funds have already learned through information channels that CPI is below expectations, and that isn’t really a secret anymore—only retail investors are still guessing. This time, the big jump in gold stocks started on July 30, before the small non-farm payrolls came out, and it kept rising until the day the non-farm data was released. Retail investors always trade stocks based on news. In reality, big funds know at least a day earlier than you—sometimes even a week.
But then again, the US non-farm data and CPI are basically “written with eyes closed.” Whatever political needs it has, that’s what the numbers become. Once you understand what US politics needs at this stage, you don’t have to guess—you can know the outcome.
The US people’s game of tactics is still too low-level. Chinese gold stocks identified a month ago that the reality is the Fed won’t dare to raise rates, only cut them. Everything afterward is just performance. #美国7月CPI与PPI数据本周出炉
My understanding is that if you look at the gold stock price movement, you’ll know it’s going up. So big funds have already learned through information channels that CPI is below expectations, and that isn’t really a secret anymore—only retail investors are still guessing. This time, the big jump in gold stocks started on July 30, before the small non-farm payrolls came out, and it kept rising until the day the non-farm data was released. Retail investors always trade stocks based on news. In reality, big funds know at least a day earlier than you—sometimes even a week.
But then again, the US non-farm data and CPI are basically “written with eyes closed.” Whatever political needs it has, that’s what the numbers become. Once you understand what US politics needs at this stage, you don’t have to guess—you can know the outcome.
The US people’s game of tactics is still too low-level. Chinese gold stocks identified a month ago that the reality is the Fed won’t dare to raise rates, only cut them. Everything afterward is just performance. #美国7月CPI与PPI数据本周出炉
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Bearish
⭐SPCX, don’t chase this rebound—set up short positions.
At the $150 level, there’s a concentrated zone of prior holdings, plus multiple tests that it failed to break through. Technically, it’s a valid supply area. My plan is to build short positions in batches between $140 and $150!
The core question is: will SPCX actually rebound or not?
First layer (technical): From around $100, it surged up by more than 40% in a short time. That kind of speed is inherently unsustainable. As trading crowding increases, once the buying momentum fades, you don’t even need a bad catalyst—profit-taking alone can be enough to “deal it a blow.” It typically comes with a pullback to the moving average or the prior low, which is a classic pattern.
Second layer (confluence): There’s overlapping resistance. Not only is $150 a technical supply zone, it’s also a sensitive valuation band. With these two forces reinforcing each other, shorts have a natural advantage in this range.
Third layer (structural issue people easily overlook): Restricted shares are set to be released—there’s real, concrete sell pressure. Early shareholders had extremely low costs. After the unlock, they’ll go collect the cash. Over the coming months, the release schedule is very frequent. You can’t lift the stock just on belief.
The company’s in a good industry and the management is reliable, but a great company and a great entry point are two different things. In the first half after going public, the structural overhang from unlock/lockup sales is right there—downward pressure is very likely. Only after the market thoroughly “washes out” the chip distribution will it enter the left-side, slow accumulation phase.
At this price and timing, the risk-reward of shorting is far better than longing
$SPCX #SPCX九亿股解锁压力
{future}(SPCXUSDT)
⭐SPCX, don’t chase this rebound—set up short positions.
At the $150 level, there’s a concentrated zone of prior holdings, plus multiple tests that it failed to break through. Technically, it’s a valid supply area. My plan is to build short positions in batches between $140 and $150!
The core question is: will SPCX actually rebound or not?
First layer (technical): From around $100, it surged up by more than 40% in a short time. That kind of speed is inherently unsustainable. As trading crowding increases, once the buying momentum fades, you don’t even need a bad catalyst—profit-taking alone can be enough to “deal it a blow.” It typically comes with a pullback to the moving average or the prior low, which is a classic pattern.
Second layer (confluence): There’s overlapping resistance. Not only is $150 a technical supply zone, it’s also a sensitive valuation band. With these two forces reinforcing each other, shorts have a natural advantage in this range.
Third layer (structural issue people easily overlook): Restricted shares are set to be released—there’s real, concrete sell pressure. Early shareholders had extremely low costs. After the unlock, they’ll go collect the cash. Over the coming months, the release schedule is very frequent. You can’t lift the stock just on belief.
The company’s in a good industry and the management is reliable, but a great company and a great entry point are two different things. In the first half after going public, the structural overhang from unlock/lockup sales is right there—downward pressure is very likely. Only after the market thoroughly “washes out” the chip distribution will it enter the left-side, slow accumulation phase.
At this price and timing, the risk-reward of shorting is far better than longing
$SPCX #SPCX九亿股解锁压力
At the $150 level, there’s a concentrated zone of prior holdings, plus multiple tests that it failed to break through. Technically, it’s a valid supply area. My plan is to build short positions in batches between $140 and $150!
The core question is: will SPCX actually rebound or not?
First layer (technical): From around $100, it surged up by more than 40% in a short time. That kind of speed is inherently unsustainable. As trading crowding increases, once the buying momentum fades, you don’t even need a bad catalyst—profit-taking alone can be enough to “deal it a blow.” It typically comes with a pullback to the moving average or the prior low, which is a classic pattern.
Second layer (confluence): There’s overlapping resistance. Not only is $150 a technical supply zone, it’s also a sensitive valuation band. With these two forces reinforcing each other, shorts have a natural advantage in this range.
Third layer (structural issue people easily overlook): Restricted shares are set to be released—there’s real, concrete sell pressure. Early shareholders had extremely low costs. After the unlock, they’ll go collect the cash. Over the coming months, the release schedule is very frequent. You can’t lift the stock just on belief.
The company’s in a good industry and the management is reliable, but a great company and a great entry point are two different things. In the first half after going public, the structural overhang from unlock/lockup sales is right there—downward pressure is very likely. Only after the market thoroughly “washes out” the chip distribution will it enter the left-side, slow accumulation phase.
At this price and timing, the risk-reward of shorting is far better than longing
$SPCX #SPCX九亿股解锁压力
1
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Bullish
WLFI Unlocks Spot Opening, Market Cap Approaches $10 Billion
Tron Founder Justin Sun is one of the largest independent investors in WLFI▼. According to on-chain data, Justin Sun received approximately 600 million WLFI▼ after the unlock yesterday. Based on the first round presale price of $0.015 and the opening high of $0.3998, the profit reaches $230 million! #特朗普家族币
WLFI Unlocks Spot Opening, Market Cap Approaches $10 Billion
Tron Founder Justin Sun is one of the largest independent investors in WLFI▼. According to on-chain data, Justin Sun received approximately 600 million WLFI▼ after the unlock yesterday. Based on the first round presale price of $0.015 and the opening high of $0.3998, the profit reaches $230 million! #特朗普家族币
Tron Founder Justin Sun is one of the largest independent investors in WLFI▼. According to on-chain data, Justin Sun received approximately 600 million WLFI▼ after the unlock yesterday. Based on the first round presale price of $0.015 and the opening high of $0.3998, the profit reaches $230 million! #特朗普家族币
822
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XLM's trading volume doubled in 24 hours, breaking below support
As large-scale institutional liquidations triggered a break below the key support level of $0.380, Stellar faces significant selling pressure. #XML
XLM's trading volume doubled in 24 hours, breaking below support
As large-scale institutional liquidations triggered a break below the key support level of $0.380, Stellar faces significant selling pressure. #XML
As large-scale institutional liquidations triggered a break below the key support level of $0.380, Stellar faces significant selling pressure. #XML
4
629
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Bearish
As the cryptocurrency rebound fails, Bitcoin falls back to $110,000, Ethereum plummets 8%
Most cryptocurrencies have rebounded in the U.S. after-hours on Monday, breaking through Sunday’s flash crash low of #ETH🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
As the cryptocurrency rebound fails, Bitcoin falls back to $110,000, Ethereum plummets 8%
Most cryptocurrencies have rebounded in the U.S. after-hours on Monday, breaking through Sunday’s flash crash low of #ETH🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Most cryptocurrencies have rebounded in the U.S. after-hours on Monday, breaking through Sunday’s flash crash low of #ETH🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
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