Tomorrow’s Japanese interest rate decision is on the radar. I’ve studied past market reactions, especially periods when rates were hiked by 25 bps.
The key difference this time: expectation vs surprise.
Last year’s unexpected hike triggered a sharp BTC drop from 62,000 → 49,590. That move happened because the market was unprepared. This time, the news is already priced in. Most traders are positioned short, and liquidity is building on that side.
From my analysis, the downside looks limited. Maximum drawdown I expect is around 5% — $BTC testing 80,200, possibly 78,500, and in an extreme case 74,500. After that, a strong recovery toward 89,500 is likely.
Looking ahead, next week’s structure points toward the 101,500 zone.
@Crypto_LUX focuses on impact, positioning, and liquidity — not headlines. Direction matters more than fear.
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