Why Crypto Isn’t Pumping Despite All the Good News
Nov 3, 2025 — Headlines look bullish: US–China trade tensions cool, the Fed ends QT, banks can custody stablecoins, and ETFs keep stacking Bitcoin. Yet the market drifts. BTC stalls near $107K, ETH can’t break $4K, and alts bleed. Fear & Greed? Still stuck at 37 (Fear).
So, why isn’t crypto reacting?
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1. The Good News Is Already Priced In
October’s run to $110K+ wasn’t random — the market front-ran these headlines. When they finally dropped, traders sold into strength. Classic “buy the rumor, sell the news” behavior.
$19B in BTC longs were wiped in the October flash crash. Sentiment never recovered, leaving bulls cautious and liquidity thin.
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2. Liquidity Isn’t Flowing to Crypto
Yes, the Fed is easing. But Powell ruled out another cut this year — the dollar strengthened, and yields spiked. Result: smart money rotated into AI, tech, and equities instead of crypto.
On-chain data confirms it:
Coinbase Premium: negative
Institutions trimming exposure
Stablecoins inflows rising — but sidelined, not deployed
In short: cash is here, but it’s waiting, not buying.
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3. Technical Exhaustion at Key Levels
BTC faces heavy supply between $110K–$112.5K. Each rally fades before breaking structure.
RSI cools, MACD flattens, and volume thins — all signs of fatigue. Altcoins? Many still near cycle highs, scaring off new capital. No breakout without volume, and no volume without retail.
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4. Retail Is Missing
Google searches for “Bitcoin” are a shadow of 2021. No influencers, no CNBC hype, no TikTok mania. Retail wallets are quiet — weighed down by credit debt, inflation, and election noise.
Crypto’s $3.2T cap sounds big, but it’s tiny next to stocks. A few large players and algos can still nudge price direction. Those “fake dips” and “short squeezes”? Likely structured plays to reset leverage — not bear signals.
This isn’t collapse. It’s consolidation.
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6. The Cycle Is Intact
Key on-chain metrics say it all:
Indicator Reading Signal
Pi Cycle Top Not triggered Cycle not done MVRV Z-Score ~2.1 Fair value Stablecoin Ratio Rising Dry powder Long-Term Holders Near ATH Strong hands
We’re not in a bear — we’re in disbelief. This phase tests conviction before the next surge.
Market Structure HUSDT bounced strongly from the 0.048 demand + FVG, but price is now inside a 1H/4H supply zone, where rejection is common. Trend remains bearish on higher timeframes until a clean break above 0.0600.
Scenarios
Bearish: Rejection from 0.05420–0.05480 → pullback toward 0.0518 – 0.0522.
Bullish: Close above 0.05480 → next target 0.0568 – 0.0575.
Reversal confirmation: 4H close above 0.0600 only.
Note Liquidity from 0.048–0.049 filled the FVG and triggered the bounce. BTC stability will decide continuation.
Tight stop loss and DYOR before entering any position.
Price tapped the $0.97–$0.95 reaction zone after structure break at $0.8823. Holding above this zone → possible pullback toward $0.98–$1.00. Failure → eyes on SSL 2 ($0.8750–$0.8600) and SSL 3 ($0.760–$0.720).
BNB just tapped the $812–$790 SSL zone, the same area that held the Nov 22 low at $790.92. Price rejected the $882–$900 BSL and got pushed down from the HTF descending trendline.
BTC rejected the 4H trendline cleanly and flushed straight into SSL 1 at $86.1K. Below this, the major liquidity pool sits at $80.6K–$78.3K, with deeper HTF demand at $75.9K–$72.4K.
"$TOSHI update: quick rejection after grabbing the 0.0004498 liquidity. Now stabilising around 0.0004365 — holding this zone keeps trend intact. If 0.0004310 holds, expect continuation. Break below → eyes on 0.0004180 sweep." #TOSHI
Weekly trend is decisively down, Daily keeps rejecting the 25/99 EMAs, and 4H can’t reclaim 0.135–0.138. Until price breaks above that zone with strength, this remains a supply-driven drift.
Support sits at 0.1245 → 0.118. Upside only opens above 0.138.
Price bounced off 2.146 and is now grinding toward liquidity at 2.30–2.34. As long as 2.24 holds, upside continuation stays clean. ❌ Breakdown below 2.14 brings back the downtrend toward 2.10.
Price is pushing toward $3K but showing clear hesitation — every attempt is getting sold into. No trend shift unless we get a 4H close above $3,030–$3,080 with momentum.
If rejected again, $2,880 / $2,820 remain the support levels to watch.