ELTRADER99

Standing at the current node, I think there’s a high probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike this week. However, it will be difficult to immediately kick off a cycle of consecutive hikes. Although the core CPI month-over-month came in hotter than expected, core CPI year-over-year is still trending lower, and the broader downtrend in inflation has not been completely reversed—more like a short-term sticky rebound. At this time, the Fed is more inclined toward “preventive rate hikes,” aimed at suppressing the risk of an inflation rebound rather than restarting an aggressive tightening cycle. If this hike is carried out, the key things to watch are the dot plot and Chair Powell’s remarks: if the messaging leans toward “this is a one-off move, and we’ll decide the future based on incoming data,” then it would be a single hike; if it signals that there may be another hike later this year, the market would start pricing in the path toward multiple hikes. Once the hike is implemented, the performance of BTC, tech stocks, and gold will diverge: 1. BTC: BTC is a high-volatility, non-yielding risk asset and is highly sensitive to U.S. real Treasury yields. If the hike is delivered and the tone is hawkish, it will likely face continued pressure in the near term. But if the hike is delivered and expectations are fully “priced in,” you could also see a rebound as negative news is realized. In the short term, I’m cautious—I won’t blindly buy the dip, and I also won’t blindly go long or short. The focus is on monitoring the subsequent changes in the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields. 2. Tech stocks: Growth-stock valuations depend heavily on rate expectations. With the hike delivered, high-valuation AI and semiconductor sectors will continue to bear valuation pressure. However, leading firms with strong earnings certainty may hold up relatively better. Overall, the near term is more likely to be choppy, making it hard to sustain a one-way rally. 3. Gold: Rising rate-hike expectations will weigh on gold prices, and higher Treasury yields raise the cost of holding non-yielding assets. But the long-term rationale of central banks around the world continuing to buy gold remains intact. In the short term, gold will likely trade with interest-rate-related fluctuations; in the medium to long term, it still has hedging attributes. It isn’t suitable to chase the price up—pullbacks are more appropriate for scaling in. #美联储加息是否已成定局 $BTC $ETH $SOL