尼克nickk

In the BTC chart, this blue line is the support level of several recent lows. Now it has become a resistance level. If this rebound can’t effectively hold above that blue line, I’m still more bearish.

The macro environment isn’t supportive either. The Fed just raised rates by 25 basis points, and the dot plot also suggests that further hikes may be possible later this year. When the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields strengthen, BTC—an asset that’s quite sensitive to liquidity—often can’t immediately sustain a lasting rebound. If technicals break support and the macro backdrop lacks fresh liquidity catalysts, it becomes even harder to reclaim the level.

If it can’t push up and hold here, we may see a new low. Just be patient and wait.

The above is my personal view and does not constitute investment advice. DYOR.

After the rate hike in the early morning, BTC and U.S. stocks have been jumping up and down—what are derivatives traders supposed to do? This rate hike itself isn’t unexpected; what truly needs attention is the future path of interest rates.

The Federal Reserve raised rates by 25 basis points, bringing the policy rate up to 3.75%–4%. This is the first rate hike since 2023, and it was approved unanimously by all 12 votes.

The latest dot plot shows the median year-end rate rising to 4.1%, which implies that there is likely still at least one more hike before year’s end. More importantly, the expected rate for 2027 was also revised upward from 3.6% to 4.1%.

Why dare to keep hiking?

Because the U.S. economy hasn’t shown clear signs of weakening. The Fed raised its forecast for this year’s GDP growth to 2.3% and lowered its unemployment rate forecast to 4.1%; however, August CPI year-over-year is still 3.4%, and PPI is even at 5.4%. If the economy can hold up and inflation can’t be brought down, then the Fed has no reason to stop in a hurry.

Right now, I think $76,000 is an important level. Recently, the support has been consistently around $76,000, and the current price has also been consolidating around that area. The blue line in the chart marks $76,000—you can keep an eye on it.

Keep observing.

Many people compare this cycle to the previous one, but I think in terms of their formation, these two cycles are actually quite different.

This cycle started falling from around February of this year, and it has already dropped to $60,000. Then all the way until mid-September, it’s been trading sideways between $60,000 and $80,000. Does that mean this bear market ended in February? It only lasted 4 months?

Actually, the difference in formation between this cycle and the previous one shows up in June this year. This time, it didn’t fully break down. In the previous cycle, after May, it did break down fully—it directly dropped through the level. Since these formations are different, I don’t think we can simply make a straightforward comparison.

Let’s look even further back at the two earlier cycles. Those two cycles are actually more similar to this one. They both have a feature: they complete the first major drop before March (or even earlier). After that, they trade sideways for a period and there’s no effective breakdown that pushes through. Then they continue to trade in a prolonged range before finally dropping. This is quite similar to this cycle’s pattern. So for now, I still lean more toward this kind of formation. If Bitcoin can break out effectively and hold above 8.3w, I will abandon my view.

I’ve seen many friends are afraid of missing out on this round of the market, but really it’s just that this leg up has come too quickly, which creates psychological pressure for you. Bitcoin’s future volatility will only get smaller and smaller. And right now, it’s likely that an increase of dozens of points will need a long period of consolidation to digest properly. So there’s no need to worry—market opportunities are endless ✊✊✊

In the end, I drew a figure with two charts—they look pretty ugly. I think these two patterns are the main formations of a BTC bear market.

This drop still isn’t over. This morning, BTC fell as low as $748,000. Since then, it has rebounded from $748,000 to about $758,000.

This leg started around $800,000 and kept sliding all the way down. After consecutive declines, there was a correction. A rebound doesn’t mean the sell-off is finished.

For now, I remain broadly bearish.

On one hand, the pressure above the $800,000 level has been confirmed several times already. It’s very difficult to push higher—would likely require a catalyst to move up.

On the other hand, the macro pressure hasn’t gone away.

Oil prices are still above $100. High energy prices continue to add pressure to inflation. The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries briefly surged to around 5%, and the U.S. dollar also remains strong. At the same time, market expectations for the Fed to hike by 25 bps have already reached about 90%.

Add to that, progress on the <CLARITY Act> has been stalled, and Crypto itself has an additional layer of regulatory uncertainty.

So my thinking hasn’t changed for the time being:

In the short term, it may rebound. But until macro conditions show clear improvement and key resistance/support levels have been firmly reclaimed, I still believe it will continue to look for support lower down.

I’ll keep watching for the next area of support.

The above is my personal view and does not constitute investment advice. DYOR. $BTC

The Clear Act still didn’t pass. This is within normal expectations. This morning, BTC’s low hit $74,800, and it has now rallied back to around $76,000.

This time it’s not the final vote, but a procedural vote. To move forward, it needs 60 votes; in the end, there were 49 in favor and 50 against, so the bill is temporarily stuck.

The most important part of this bill is clarifying the U.S. Crypto regulatory boundaries: how SEC and CFTC divide responsibilities, how trading platforms should be registered, and how DeFi should be regulated.

The problem is also pretty clear now:

Crypto isn’t afraid of strict regulation—it’s afraid that regulation will be stuck in meetings forever.

The bad news can at least be priced in; the most uncomfortable part is that the rules keep hanging in the air.

But it’s not completely over this time either—there’s still room for reconsideration later.

The market still has to wait…👊$

BTC today surged to a high of $79,500—just a bit short of $80,000—but was pushed back to around $77,000 again.

This isn’t the first time. The area around $80,000 has failed to hold steady several times; the overhead pressure is still quite strong.

Next, it mainly depends on $76,000. If that level holds, after some consolidation the price can continue to push toward $80,000. If it doesn’t hold, then this prior rebound move is basically over, and the market will likely look for support lower down.

At 2:00 a.m. tomorrow, there’s also the Fed interest rate decision. Tonight, seeing both upward and downward intraday spikes is normal—don’t chase it just because there’s a sudden surge.

My view is still that it will trade in a range; let’s first see how it moves within the $76,000 to $80,000 range.

The above is only my personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. DYOR.