MK守约

This article will summarize a series of articles written on the trading sector.
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#站在守约的肩膀上悟自己的交易之道
56。《 为什么你总是在错误的位置加仓 》
55。《 扛单的本质，是不承认自己错了 》

First the answer: this is a financial war.
And it has an official name: "economic isolation."
Aircraft carriers are not the main character; they are a means of execution.
1. First, look at how the official documents put it
On August 24, the U.S. Treasury expanded its sanctions on Iran into five areas.
These five areas are aviation, digital assets, gold, shipping, and technology.
Also added to the list on the same day were about sixty entities, individuals, and ships.
They involve nuclear and missile technology, cyber operations, and oil trade.
The Treasury Secretary, Bessent, wrote an article in the UK’s (Financial Times).

At 8:30 p.m. last night, two things were in place at the same time.
Warsh’s new policy framework as Fed chair, along with clearly softer inflation data.
As it turned out, the market delivered a third answer.
The 30-year Treasury yield closed at 5.64%, the highest since 2002.
The Dow Jones index fell 443.87 points that day.
First, explain these two things, and then explain why the market isn’t buying it.
1. What exactly is Warsh’s “new deal”
Kevin Warsh took over as chairman of the Federal Reserve on May 22.
The first thing he did after taking office was to dismantle the Horizon guidance toolset.

First, the answer: neither of them is true.
This time, it’s not about someone coming to pick you up, nor is it about someone digging a pit waiting for you to jump.
It’s a reasonable price for gold, and someone recalculated it again.
I. Why “picking someone up” doesn’t hold
“Picking someone up” has a prerequisite.
It assumes the valuation hasn’t changed—just that prices temporarily step aside so that those who missed the move can come up.
This time, the valuation has changed.
The U.S. 10-year Treasury’s real yield—i.e., the return investors truly get after subtracting inflation—stands at 2.90%.
This is the highest since November 2008.
Gold doesn’t generate interest.
If you hold gold, the only thing you give up is this risk-free real return.

Gold collapsed today.
At Beijing time 0:00, it was still at 4,283.95.
It hit a low of 4,116.60.
Starting from the intraday high of 4,288.39, it fell as much as 4.01%.
This is the lowest point since August 5.
Now when you look up “why gold is falling,” the answer is basically the same.
The rise in oil prices lifted inflation concerns, and the Fed still needs to raise rates, so gold was dragged down.
That explanation sounds especially smooth.
But it has a problem with the sequence of events.
I put today’s oil price and gold price side by side hour by hour.
Oil didn’t fall along with gold—it fell because of gold.

Gold falls to 4,177.
This is the real-time price of the Binance XAU/USDT perpetual contract,
It’s also the lowest in the past 30 trading days.
What’s the status of your position right now?
I guess that’s how it is: you’re down, but you didn’t exit.
Because you believe it will come back.
——
First, see how much it dropped.
Starting from September 3 at 4,514,
In less than a month, it dropped 7.5%.
You’ll go search for the reason.
The answer I found is: inflation expectations are cooling,
Gold’s safe-haven function has stopped working.
This explanation is wrong.
——
Look at two numbers.
Real interest rate: January 29 at 1.89%,
It’s now 2.83%, which is 94 basis points higher.

Gold is down 7%—don’t blame the U.S. dollar: Euro gold is down 10.8%; what’s really weighing it down is a number not seen since 2007.
You’re probably in a state like this right now.
From the 5,318.40 peak in January, the gold price has slid all the way down. The little gold you have is still in profit, but most of your unrealized gains has been given back.
You tell yourself: gold is a long-term asset; when it falls, that’s an opportunity.
Then it dropped another month.
One month −7.14%. Close at 4,321.20.
And then you start asking the question that everyone is asking—
“Is 4,300 support? Can we buy the dip now?”
Pause a moment.

On the day the yen appreciated by 3.87% and the VIX fell by 12.9%: the carry-trade panic you’re worried about has already been tried twice this year.
Let me ask you something first.
In the past couple of days, have you put your hand on the reduce-position button for this reason?
"If the yen is going to have trouble, carry trades will be unwound, and global risk assets will fall together."
If you reduced your position because of this sentence, or you didn’t dare to add because of this sentence, stop for a moment.
I pulled out the actual data from this year.
This script has already been played out in real life twice this year.
Twice, the thing you’re afraid of didn’t happen.
1. First, what the market is afraid of right now

U.S. Treasuries pushed above 5%, yet BTC still managed to surge to 87,000: what exactly are global assets pricing in?
If you hold BTC, gold, and tech stocks at the same time, you may have been confused lately by the same thing.
The Federal Reserve has raised interest rates, and the Bank of Japan has also raised rates. In the simplest scenario, U.S. Treasury yields go up, and risk assets should fall together.
But the market isn’t that tidy: BTC surged to 87,000, U.S. stocks have their own pockets of strength, and gold is also bearing pressure from interest rates.
Who exactly didn’t understand the rate hike?
Shouyue believes the problem is that we treat “rate hikes” like a single button: you press it, and all assets fall in sync.

Treasury yields are nearing 5%, gold is falling, yet BTC surges to 87,000: what is the market really trading?
If you were scared off around 75,000 and yesterday saw BTC rebound to 81,000, you were still hesitating.
Today it surged as high as 87,446, and in your mind there’s probably only one thought left:
If you don’t get on the train soon, are you going to miss out again?
At this point, the most dangerous thing isn’t that you didn’t buy the exact low.
Instead, you start thinking about using a larger position size to make up for the gains you missed earlier.
First, set your emotions aside—we’ll look at what exactly is happening in the market.
From Beijing time September 21 at 08:00 to September 22 at 17:49, Kraken’s BTC/USD started at $81,164, peaked at $87,446.7, and at the cut-off was about $86,017. The range gain was 5.98%, which was 1.63% down from the high. Kraken’s real-time quotes and Coinbase spot were both around $86,018 during the same period.

Bitcoin weekly closes at 81,164: where is the future of crypto heading?
If you were scared out near 75,000 and now you see BTC has once again reclaimed 81,000, there’s probably only one thing on your mind:
Will you still be able to chase it?
If you’ve been holding your position the whole time, you’re worried about yet another thing:
Has it truly held its ground this time, or will it surge and then get sold off again?
First, let’s look at the outcome.
Last week, BTC opened at $76,800.2, dipped to a low of $74,891.5, surged to a high of $81,915, and ultimately closed at $81,164, a weekly gain of 5.68%. From the low point, the rebound has reached 8.38%.
As of 14:47 Beijing time on September 21, BTC was around $81,629, with an intraday high touching $82,074.

All three knives chopped down, and yet BTC surged past 81,000: why hasn’t crypto died?
If you were scared into cutting losses near 75,000 by three pieces of bad news, then most likely you’re left with only two thoughts:
First, why did all the bad news hit the market—and yet BTC went up?
Second, having already broken above 81,000, is it still possible to chase the trade?
Put the answer first.
BTC wasn’t cut down by three knives—not because the bad news is fake, but because what the market truly fears has never been the bad news itself; it’s the bad news that hasn’t been priced in.
CLARITY rollout failed, the Fed raised rates, and the Bank of Japan raised rates—none of these three things has reversed.