I. Overall Market Setup • BTC: $79691, testing a key level • ETH: $2453, ETH/BTC 0.03078 • Total Market Cap: 2.69T(-1.18%) • Setup: (not selected)
II. Capital Flow Signals • BTC ETF: Inflow: $174 million • ETH ETF: Inflow: $26 million • Week-to-date: After yesterday’s large BTC capital inflow, inflows continued overnight • Core judgment: (to be filled in)
III. Related Markets • U.S. Stocks: Nasdaq +0.18% / S&P -0.39% • Related Stocks: MSTR: down 1.39%, closed at 142.8 COIN: down 4.18%, closed at 184.4 CRCL: down 1.13%, closed at 102.05
IV. Altcoin Sentiment • Brutal case: The storage sector rose. • Position: In a bear market, do not call the bottom; in a bull market, do not guess the top V. On-chain Hotspots • Main battleground: (not selected) • Top developments: The RH chain suffered an outage incident, and the whole chain basically pulled back. • Opportunity view: BSC launched marscoin, and it is still controlling the pace
VI. Action Guide • Watch closely: Whether $82,000 can turn from resistance into support; whether $75,000 can continue to remain structurally valid;
— The above does not constitute investment advice, DYOR —
I. Market outlook • BTC: $81,000, breaks through a key level • ETH: $2508, ETH/BTC 0.03097 • Total market cap: 2.72T (+3.79%) • Outlook: A sharp surge II. Capital flow signals • BTC ETF: Inflows: 730 million USD • ETH ETF: Inflows: 141 million USD • Week to date: Big inflows into the flagship, rallied to break above the prior high then pulled back • Key view: Statements from Fed officials indicate they may not raise rates based on August data. This triggered traders to price in a higher likelihood of a rate cut in September. III. Related markets • U.S. stocks: Nasdaq +1.19% / S&P 500 +1.05% • Related stocks: MSTR: 144.8 +17.56%
I. Market Outlook • BTC: $77,299, testing key levels • ETH: $2,389, ETH/BTC 0.03091 • Total market cap: 2.61T (+0.33%) • Tone: A tug-of-war between bulls and bears
II. Capital Flow Signals • BTC ETF: Inflows: $101 million • ETH ETF: Outflows: $48 million • Cumulative this week: The BTC ETF is bouncing around; yesterday the flow into the “auntie/ET H” ended and turned to outflows. • Core view: Even if the spot price of ETH is also down, it’s still down less than other coins. While watching $75,000, you should also factor in the ETF inflow/outflow, and the trend as $75,000 breaks down. Don’t mechanically add to positions just because it hits $75,000.
III. Related Markets • US stocks: Nasdaq +0.23% / S&P 500 +0.44% • Related equities: MSTR: 123.1 down 1.35% coin: 174.9 down 1.05% crcl: 88.6 down 0.95% • Commentary: Tech and storage sectors saw small upticks
IV. Altcoin Sentiment • Harsh example: ROBINHOOD3 Jie: ARB. UNI .Lither. • Stance: In a bear market, don’t talk about a bottom; in a bull market, don’t guess the top
V. On-Chain Hotspots • Main battlefield: (Not selected) • Top developments: The RH chain is still the main battlefield—just be careful with gas fees. High points are around ~4u.
VI. Action Guidance • Focus on: While monitoring $75,000, also watch ETF inflows and outflows, and the market behavior as it breaks below $75,000.
1. Market Overview • BTC: $77558, testing a key level • ETH: $2415, ETH/BTC 0.03115 • Total Market Cap: 2.61T(-1.42%) • Summary: A tug-of-war between bulls and bears
2. Capital Flow Signals • BTC ETF: Outflow: 236M USD • ETH ETF: Inflow: 10M USD • Weekly cumulative: Bitcoin inflow momentum has stalled, while Ethereum inflow momentum has extended to 11 days. • Core takeaway: Mild ETH inflows, BTC has started to see net outflows. Watch the 75000 spot level for confirmation.
3. Related Markets • U.S. Stocks: Nasdaq -1.27% / S&P -0.69% • Related Stocks: MSTR:124.8$: down 6.06% COIN:176.8$: down 6.01% CRCL:89.6$: down 6.34% • Comment: Both storage-related sectors and crypto declined to varying degrees
4. Altcoin Sentiment • Sharp case: uni broke above 6.3 hype stable around 83 ZEC stable around 830 • Risk reminder: Do not chase highs • Stance: In a bear market, don’t call the bottom; in a bull market, don’t guess the top
5. On-Chain Hotspots • Main battlefield: (not selected) • Top developments: RH chain ecosystem is surging, continuing to expand • Opportunity view: RH chain is red-hot and continues to make new highs. Do not chase highs, beware of pullbacks.
6. Action Guide • Keep an eye on: Watch the 75000 level to judge this rebound rally.
— The above does not constitute investment advice, DYOR —
2. Capital Flow Signals • BTC ETF: inflow of $216 million • ETH ETF: inflow of $87 million • This week so far: Big-pig (BTC) continues net inflows after the reversal; ETH continues to see steady inflows • Core judgment: Keep the inflow during U.S. stock market opening hours. BTC and ETH prices are stable.
3. Related Markets • U.S. stocks: Nasdaq +0.05% / S&P -0.3% • Related stocks: MSTR: 132.9 COIN: 188.1 CRCL: 95.7 • Commentary: Crypto-related stocks were mostly slightly up; the storage sector rose marginally.
4. Altcoin Sentiment • Harsh example: UNI staying around 5.4, while HYPE remains stable above 82. • Stance: In a bear market, don’t talk about a bottom; in a bull market, don’t guess the top.
5. On-Chain Hotspots • Main battlefield: RH chain • Top developments: RH chain has ample liquidity, suitable for small capital to enjoy.
6. Action Guide • Keep an eye on: Continue watching the key range of 75,000–78,000—whether it can hold steadily will determine whether this leg of the market move has ended.
— The above does not constitute investment advice; DYOR —
I. Market Outlook • BTC: $77489, breaks below a key level • ETH: $2412, ETH/BTC 0.3115 • Total market cap: 2.61T (-1.01%) • Tone: darkness before dawn
II. Capital Flow Signals • Core view: (before the market opens)
III. Related Markets (before the market opens)
IV. Altcoin Sentiment • Harsh case: UNI breaks through 5.5; the rest of the altcoins are weakening • Risk warning: The US-Iran situation is starting to “join the show” again—mutual shelling and blame • Stance: There are no more than 10 altcoins worth participating in; the rest are just noise
V. On-Chain Hotspots • Main battleground: Others • Top developments: robinhood chain manages on-chain liquidity—relatively, it’s still more interesting • Opportunity view: RH chain is hot; BSC bull soon goes live with contracts. Competition among big companies means they’ll inevitably favor a certain group of people
VI. Action Guidelines • Keep an eye on: Watch 75,000 and see if it can hold—use it to judge whether this market cycle has ended.
I. Market Outlook • BTC: $77660, broke below a key level • ETH: $2439, ETH/BTC 0.3143 • Total market cap: 2.62T (-2.07%) • Tone: Long vs. short standoff
II. Capital Flow Signals • BTC ETF: Outflows: $201 million • ETH ETF: Inflows: $102 million • Cumulative for the week: The “big pie” ended its streak of net inflows, while “auntie” (ETH) continues to see net inflows. • Core view: The 4 conditions have not been invalidated yet
III. Related Markets • US stocks: Nasdaq -0.65% / S&P 500 -0.22% • Related stocks: MSTR: 127.31 -7.34% COIN: 178.64 -6.33% CRCL: 87.11 -7.57% • Commentary: The Fed’s Waller speech sounded relatively hawkish, and risk assets across the market pulled back and fell.
IV. Altcoin Sentiment
• Risk warning: Focus only on altcoins that generate cash flow. Everything else—ignore.
V. On-Chain Hotspots • Main battlefield: (not selected) • Top developments: Last night, the SOL chain GOLD was wiped out in 8 minutes. For partners playing on-chain, try not to move, or only test with small capital.
VI. Action Guide • Keep an eye on: Stay focused on the 78000–75000 range. Start dollar-cost averaging.
I. Market Direction • BTC: $79,986, hold the key levels • ETH: $2,504, ETH/BTC 0.03132 • Total market cap: 2.67T (+0.99%) • Tone: (Not selected)
II. Capital Flow Signals • BTC ETF: Inflow: $242 million • ETH ETF: Inflow: $234 million • This week so far: Auntie’s ETH ETF saw 9 consecutive trading days of inflows, and BTC’s ETF also saw inflows for 9 consecutive trading days. • Core judgment: If one of the 4 conditions is met, ETF inflows will continue. Next, watch the clear bill, changes in parts of the altcoin market, and the Fed’s macro fundamentals.
III. Related Markets • US stocks: Nasdaq +1.37% / S&P +0.66% • Related stocks: MSTR:137$ +11.54% COIN:190.72 +4.92% CRCL:94.24 +4.92 • Commentary: MicroStrategy went from being down $10 billion to up $4 billion on paper. The status is very comfortable.
IV. Altcoin Sentiment • Risk warning: Keep an eye on altcoins with cash flow: HYPE UNI PUMP AAVE ZEC== • Stance: Participatable altcoins are no more than 20; the rest are just noise
V. On-Chain Hot Topics • Main battlefield: (Not selected) • Opportunity assessment: My girlfriend Jing Tian, it’s so wildly absurd—totally abstract.
VI. Action Guide • Execution: Keep your ammunition ready; don’t be too impatient.
I. Market Overview • BTC: $78,700, hold the key levels • ETH: $2,488, ETH/BTC 0.03161 • Total market cap: 2.65T (+0.12%) • Tone: calm and steady
II. Capital Flow Signals • BTC ETF: Inflows: 232 million USD • ETH ETF: Inflows: 192 million USD • Cumulative this week: Auntie/ETH inflows this week: 487 million, inflows for 8 consecutive trading days. Big BTC inflows this week: 884 million, inflows for 8 consecutive trading days. • Core view: As long as one of the conditions is met, ETFs remain in net inflow. For a major breakout, we still need clarity on when the bill is implemented.
III. Related Markets • US stocks: Nasdaq +0.09% / S&P +0.02% • Related stocks: MSTR: $123.19, down 2.87% COIN: $181.78, down 2.87% CRCL: $89.8, down 2.41%
IV. Altcoin Sentiment • Risk warning: If you want to play alts, just focus on the ones with cash flow—ignore the rest. • Position: Worth participating in alts are no more than 20; the rest is just noise.
V. On-Chain Hotspots • Main battleground: Other • Top dynamics: RH chain cashcat market cap $240 million; pons market cap $96 million • Opportunity view: On-chain difficulty is increasing. With the early-morning “foreigners’ perspective” coming out, the difficulty factor rises—if you can’t play it, just hold BTC and ETH. Don’t act impulsively.
VI. Action Guide • Actions: For those who missed the move, have you made a strategy for your entry? Leave a comment and interact.
— The above does not constitute investment advice. DYOR —
I. Market Outlook • BTC: $78,840, testing key levels • ETH: $2,458, ETH/BTC 0.03118 • Total market cap: 2.65T (-1.67%) • Tone: calm and steady
II. Capital Flow Signals • BTC ETF: Inflows: $314 million • ETH ETF: Inflows: $179 million • Cumulative this week: Big pie and ETH have had net inflows for 7 consecutive trading days, meeting one of the criteria. • Core takeaway: Next, focus on the implementation of policy-related information, and whether some altcoin season has started—this will help determine whether the bull run is truly back.
III. Related Markets • US stocks: Nasdaq +0.62% / S&P +0.32% • Related stocks: MSTR: $126.83 COIN: $187.1 CRCL: $92 STRC: $97.1 • Commentary: Crypto-related stocks have shown strong gains over the past week, while the storage sector adjusted and pulled back. Nasdaq and the S&P have been choppy. This Thursday, Nvidia will release its earnings report.
IV. Altcoin Sentiment • Example: HYPE is stable around $80, ZEC has a small pullback within a limited range. • Stance: Only look at altcoins with liquid capital.
V. On-Chain Hotspots • Main battleground: RH • Top developments: Recently it’s been more about observing—no real action. There may still be opportunities on-chain, but it feels a bit difficult. ROBINHOOD: Cashcat is hovering around 200 million; Pons: market cap around 90 million.
VI. Action Guidelines • Keep an eye on: Better to watch more and move less. Hold onto the big pie and ETH first, then see if opportunities emerge.
— The above does not constitute investment advice; DYOR —
1. Market Overview • BTC: $80,735, breaks through a key level • ETH: $2,507, ETH/BTC 0.03105 • Total market cap: 2.71T (+3.65%) • Tone: Long vs. short battle
2. Capital Flow Signals • BTC ETF: Inflows: $337 million • ETH ETF: Inflows: $115 million • Cumulative this week: “Big Pizza” (BTC) and “Auntie ETH” (ETH) have seen net inflows for 6 consecutive trading days. Net inflows for the month so far: 27.2B for BTC and 10.6B for ETH. One of the core drivers behind the rise. • Core view: Overall, going forward you can’t just look at whether BTC continues to rise. You also need to watch whether price support, incremental capital, policy implementation, and market broadening can create resonance. The more completely these four conditions are met, the higher the sustainability and credibility of this round of行情.
3. Related Markets • US stocks: Nasdaq -1% / S&P -0.29% • Related stocks: MSTR: 122.6, COIN: 179.4 CRCL: 87.7 STRC: 97 • Commentary: The storage sector continues to pull back. Crypto stocks have recently followed the broader market’s strength.
4. Altcoin Sentiment • Risk warning: Trade altcoins—pick ones that generate cash flow. Skip the “story”/whitepaper-only ones. • Position: Worth participating in altcoins are fewer than 20; the rest is noise.
5. On-Chain Hotspots • Main battlefield: Others • Frontline dynamics: The entire RH chain stands at attention; other chains are neither hot nor cold. The mainnet meme has been stuck with no improvement.
6. Action Guidelines • Trading: Overall, you can’t just look at whether BTC keeps rising. You also need to observe whether price support, incremental capital, policy implementation, and market broadening can form a resonance. The more completely these four conditions are fulfilled, the stronger the sustainability and credibility of this round of行情.
— The above does not constitute investment advice. DYOR $HYPE
2. Liquidity Signals • BTC ETF: Inflows at the weekend last week: $307 million • ETH ETF: Inflows at the weekend last week: $184 million • Cumulative this week: Last week’s BTC inflows: $1.92 billion; last week’s ETH inflows: $697 million • Core view: Inflows into U.S. ETFs remain one of the key drivers of market sentiment. Over the past week, total inflows into BTC and ETH exceeded $2.6 billion, setting the record for the largest single-week inflows since October 2025.
3. Related Markets • U.S. stocks: Nasdaq +0.35% / S&P +0.41% • Related stocks: COIN:186.49 CRCL:87.91 STRC:96.8 MSTR:119.2 • Commentary: As the broader market rises, crypto-related stocks also climbed steadily. CRCL and COIN’s uptrend has been particularly encouraging.
4. Altcoin Sentiment • Harsh examples: Hype continues to break historical highs, peaking at around 84. As Trump said: “Bring Hype into the U.S., while undercurrents surge.” ZEC breaks through the historical 888 level. • Risk warning: A statement from Trump’s eldest son: there will be no new TOKEN issuance. • Stance: No more than 10 altcoins are worth participating in; the rest are noise.
5. On-Chain Hotspots • Main battlefield: ROBINHOOD • Top update: The bull market pulls back and then continues—some of ROBINHOOD’s on-chain liquidity has been recovering.
6. Action Guide • Keep an eye on: the 69,000–73,000 range. Those who are currently empty/cash-only and running short can consider it themselves.
— The above does not constitute investment advice. DYOR —
I. Market Outlook • BTC: $77,037, holding key levels • ETH: $2,434, ETH/BTC 0.03157 • Total market cap: 2.67T (+6.06%) • Tone: A bloodbath
II. Capital Flow Signals • This week cumulative: The “big pie” has seen inflows for 5 consecutive trading days; August inflows: 2.38B. “Auntie ETH” has also seen inflows for 5 consecutive trading days; August inflows: 939M: • Core take: This round of rally has gained favor from US-style (American) capital.
III. Related Markets • US stocks: Nasdaq +0.35% / S&P 500 +0.41% • Related stocks: MSTR: 119.2 COINBASE: 186.4 CRCL: 87.9. STRC: 96.1 • Commentary: Crypto momentum has drowned out US stocks’ signals. Worth celebrating.
IV. Altcoin Sentiment • Harsh case study: Hype has broken to a new all-time high. Currently, stable coins like 79. ZEC TRUMP, and established old-school memes have all had solid gains. • Stance: There are no more than 20 altcoins worth participating in; the rest is just noise.
V. On-Chain Hotspots • Main battlefield: (not selected) • Top developments: On-chain meme activity hasn’t followed the “big pie” trend, but some altcoins have already started rising today.
VI. Action Guidance • Keep an eye on: Watch MA200, and restart DCA (dollar-cost averaging).
I. Market Outlook • BTC: $75,300, breaks through a key level • ETH: $2,359, ETH/BTC 0.03132 • Total market cap: 2.52T (+6.56) • Tone: “Bullish pump”
II. Capital Flow Signals • This week’s cumulative: Inflows for 3 consecutive days. Yesterday’s data hasn’t been updated yet • Core takeaway: The U.S. Treasury increased its long-term bond buyback/repo; gold is up, and crypto is up.
III. Related Markets • U.S. stocks: Nasdaq -0.72% / S&P -0.84% • Related stocks: STRC: 95.2, COINBASE: 172.35, CRCL: 83.65 • Commentary: Storage sector slightly higher; crypto-related stocks have been rising consecutively.
IV. Altcoin Sentiment • Brutal example: HYPE breaks to a new high, up 24% in a single day • Risk warning: Trump said, “Will bring hype into the U.S.” • Stance: Better than that is DCA into BTC—at least you can sleep at night
V. On-Chain Hotspots • Main battlefield: Others • Top players’ updates: The bulls are maintaining momentum; most other leaders aren’t showing much reaction. cashcat: 130M, upeg: 3.75M, Space Dog: 27M. Mars: 27M, Bi You (必有): 3.3M.
VI. Action Guide • Focus on: Currently holding above the 20-day MA line. If you missed the move, you should think about how to adjust your strategy. • Action: DCA remains the same.
I. Market Overview • BTC: $69,387, breaks through a key level • ETH: $2,243, ETH/BTC 0.03232 • Total market cap: 2.36T (+7.84) • Tone: strong surge
II. Liquidity Signals • BTC ETF: Inflow: $517 million • ETH ETF: Inflow: $189 million • This week’s cumulative: 3 consecutive days of net inflows; ETH net inflow for the week: $291 million; BTC net inflow for the week: $1 billion. • Core judgment: ETF has had 3 consecutive days of net inflows. It may break through the net outflow levels from May/June.
III. Related Markets • US stocks: Nasdaq -0.2% / S&P +0.21% • Related stocks: STRC: slightly up. COINBASE: +9.55%. CRCL: +9.59% • Commentary: The storage sector remains in a downtrend.
IV. Altcoin Sentiment • Grim examples: don’t play • Risk warning: don’t play • Stance: Not as good as DCAing into BTC; at least you can sleep at night
V. On-Chain Hot Topics • Main battlefield: (not selected) • Opportunity view: On-chain liquidity is retreating fast, and daily-ending sentiment is severe. The bull trend remains— the movie《Bull Coming》’s box office has already surpassed: 30 million.
VI. Action Guide • Keep an eye on: 69,000 is MA200 ≈ 69,031 • Action: Hold above 69,000; reversal signals are coming. This is not just a simple rebound.
— The above does not constitute investment advice. DYOR —
I. Market Outlook • BTC: $64,400 — testing key levels • ETH: $1,922; ETH/BTC: 0.02984 • Total market cap: 2.2T • Tone: calm and steady
II. Funding/Capital Signals • BTC ETF: Inflows: $189 million • ETH ETF: Inflows: $70 million • Cumulative for the week: inflows for 2 consecutive trading days • Core takeaway: BTC ETF inflows have totaled $480 million over two straight days, but the spot market price action hasn’t moved.
III. Related Markets • US stocks: Nasdaq -1.69% / S&P -0.68% • Related equities: COIN, CRCL, STRC generally retraced by about 1–3%; the storage sector (Micron, SanDisk) saw a sharper pullback, around -10%
IV. Altcoin Sentiment • Stance: not playing.
V. On-Chain Hotspots • Main battleground: BSC and SOL both have hotspots • Top dynamics: “Bull” has launched alpha; momentum is still holding. With DD making a large-scale adjustment, there will surely be a rebound. Other on-chain liquidity is retreating
VI. Action Guidance • Strategy: Over the past 2 months, BTC has mostly hovered around 62,000–65,000. Direction isn’t clear, but DCA continues
• Cumulative this week: Big Pie outflow of $389 million for the week; the “auntie” (ETH) shows only a tiny outflow.
• Core judgment: Last week’s crypto stocks saw choppy movement, with the storage sector showing strength.
III. Related Markets
IV. Altcoin Sentiment
• Stance: There are no more than 3 altcoins worth participating in; the rest are noise
V. On-Chain Highlights
• Main battlefield:
• Top updates: Over the weekend, there was a broad on-chain pullback—cashcat pulled back to 100 million; there must be an AOB pullback as well. On the four platforms, marscoin is down by nearly 90% (CZ boss’s explanation is strong but also seems powerless). The bull market is still strong for now.
• Opportunity assessment: Keep your hands in check, and there will be opportunities. Don’t go all-in blindly.
VI. Action Guidance
• Watch closely: The 200-week moving average at 63,750.
• Action: Don’t touch altcoins
— The above does not constitute investment advice; DYOR —
Hedge fund holdings managed by You Yongping: H&H International Investment’s 2026 Q2 13F positions. The filing was submitted on August 14, with data as of June 30—this is not real-time trading on August 15.
Top five holdings at the end of Q2 Apple: $7.841 billion, 41.05% Berkshire Hathaway B: $4.618 billion, 24.18% PDD (Pinduoduo): $1.909 billion, 9.99% Tesla: $1.422 billion, 7.44% NVIDIA: $1.257 billion, 6.58%
The top five holdings together account for 89.24%. Apple and Berkshire Hathaway combined make up more than 65%. Overall, the portfolio remains highly concentrated. In total, it holds 18 securities, with total 13F market value of approximately $19.1 billion.
Signals worth paying attention to The clearest direction for adding positions is PDD: not only was the increase in size the largest, but it has also risen to become the third-largest holding—indicating a relatively high-conviction allocation. Berkshire continues to act as the core ballast: although it increased only by 0.9%, its portfolio weight has already exceeded 24%. A clear reduction in exposure to AI and large tech stocks: NVIDIA, Google, and Microsoft all saw position reductions, while TSMC was fully liquidated. This is not necessarily an all-out bearish view on tech: Apple still accounts for 41%, and NVIDIA remains the fifth-largest holding. This looks more like realizing gains at elevated levels, controlling valuation risk, and rebalancing—not a complete negation of these companies. Alibaba is only a tentative position: its share is merely about 0.15%, which cannot be compared with PDD’s substantial increase.
Note that 13F shows only the number of shares held at quarter-end; it does not reveal the specific buy/sell dates, transaction prices, cash, or some overseas assets. Therefore, you can infer the “direction of positions,” but you cannot directly copy its purchase prices or assume it reflects You Yongping’s real-time holdings as of today.