前锋_Bakul Elko

Bitcoin fell below $75,000 on Friday, November 6, before rebounding to around $75,600, as US stocks recovered from Thursday’s rout. Chip stocks led the bounce after an October jobs report that beat every Wall Street forecast.The Nasdaq rose about 2% minutes into the session, and the iShares Semiconductor ETF jumped 6.5% after a double-digit drop the day before. The S&P 500 gained about 1%, held back by declines in defensive names such as Walmart, Johnson & Johnson and Procter & Gamble.Jobs Report Tops the Highest ForecastThe US added 165,000 jobs in October, far above the 65,000 average forecast. Estimates ranged from about 35,000–50,000 at the low end to 100,000–130,000 at the top, according to Zerohedge. The highest single forecast was 131,000, so the actual figure beat it by 34,000.September’s gain was revised up to 60,000 from 29,000. The unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, against forecasts of 4.2%. Average hourly earnings rose 0.4% month over month, above the 0.3% expected. Year over year, earnings rose 3.1%, above the 2.9% forecast but slower than September’s 3.2%.December Hike Odds Rise to 77%Odds of a Federal Reserve rate hike in December rose to 77% on Friday morning. They had fallen below 70% during Thursday’s selloff, from about 95% a few weeks ago.The 10-year Treasury yield rose 4.7 basis points to 4.877%.The WSJ’s Nick Timiraos said the jobs data gives the Fed no reason to change its read that growth and inflation are strong. But Fed Chair Kevin Warsh has said he pays more attention to forward-looking markets than to lagging data. “Will the AI selloff give a reason to rethink what Fed policy—the ‘new monetary medicine’—is doing to financial conditions?” Timiraos wrote. “That’s the tension heading into December … Which wins?”Next week’s CPI and PPI inflation reports are likely to weigh more heavily on the Fed’s decision, as will whether stocks stabilize.Bitcoin Slips Below $75,000, Then RecoversBitcoin traded near $76,000 overnight and at $75,800 just after the jobs data. It then slipped below $75,000 before rebounding to around $75,600. It fell along with stocks during Thursday’s selloff but has not joined their rebound on Friday.Data Center Stocks: IREN Jumps 20%IREN surged 20% after reporting quarterly results. The company said it expanded an agreement with a top frontier AI company and signed a new deal in which the client prepaid a large share of GPU costs, which reduces its need to raise more capital. IREN now expects to reach its $4 billion annualized revenue target early next year, later than its previous guidance of December.The rest of the sector bounced less. Keel Infrastructure, Bitdeer, Riot Platforms and Hut 8 rose 5% to 8%, and the group is still down 50% or more in recent weeks.Chanos: Selling Tech May Not Be So SmartShort-seller Jim Chanos cautioned against rotating out of beaten-down tech late on Thursday, as the Nasdaq posted its worst day since April 2025 and chip stocks had their worst session since the March 2020 Covid selloff.“I can’t shake the feeling that selling your high-beta tech stocks already down 40-70% to buy low/no growth consumer names at 30-100x earnings … might not be so smart, either,” he said.Overseas, Japan’s Nikkei and South Korea’s Kospi each fell about 6% overnight.

Dear Binance users,
In our last update, we mentioned that Binance had set aside more than $6.34 billion in company funds to cover the losses from assets stolen in this security incident. At that time, approximately 80% of the affected assets had been replenished.
This figure has now increased to 90%.
BTC, ETH, USDT, BNB, SOL, USDC, XRP, USD1, RLUSD, and ZEC are now all backed by 100% reserves. We will continue purchasing the remaining stolen token assets through market and over-the-counter channels until all tokens are fully replenished to 100%. Binance will bear the financial losses from this asset theft, not our users.

Brent crude has been trading around $105 -106 a barrel this week, still elevated after Houthi attacks on Saudi infrastructure and repeated tanker incidents near the Strait of Hormuz. Energy costs have already pushed August CPI to 3.4% YoY, and consensus now looks for September headline CPI to accelerate to around 0.6% MoM / 3.6% YoY when the data drops later today, largely on the back of gasoline prices that jumped roughly 7% last month. $NVDAB

A hotter-than-expected print would reinforce the idea that the Fed’s September hike (to 3.75 - 4.00%) was not a one-off. Markets are already pricing additional tightening, which has kept the 10-year Treasury yield hovering near 5.20%, multi-decade highs. Higher yields mean lower bond prices, so the path for long-duration Treasuries remains under pressure as long as oil stays sticky and the energy component of CPI refuses to cool. $BTC

My current bias:
Watching BZUSDT for further oil upside if supply disruptions persist.Cautious on long Treasuries (prefer TBT exposure over TMFUSDT if CPI prints hot).Keeping dry powder in RWUSD for the yield while waiting for clearer Fed signals.
Will September CPI come in hotter than expected and keep oil climbing, or will shelter and core finally give the Fed breathing room? Data in a few hours will decide the next leg for both oil and Treasuries. $XRP

#CPIWatch