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“Only a fool trips on what’s behind them.” — Iceberg Slim ◢ Founder, CEO, Asymmetric Financial & Asymmetric Information
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💸 Closed $AAOI Risk Reversal 10/9 (Short $110 Put / Long $113 Call)
+163.66%
Held 3 hours
Executed with Radon
https://radon.run
💸 Closed $AAOI Risk Reversal 10/9 (Short $110 Put / Long $113 Call)
+163.66%
Held 3 hours
Executed with Radon
https://radon.run
+163.66%
Held 3 hours
Executed with Radon
https://radon.run
56
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See translation
💸 Closed $CRWD 10/16 (Long $270 Call)
+34.98%
Held 2 hours
Executed with Radon
https://radon.run
💸 Closed $CRWD 10/16 (Long $270 Call)
+34.98%
Held 2 hours
Executed with Radon
https://radon.run
+34.98%
Held 2 hours
Executed with Radon
https://radon.run
62
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See translation
💸 Closed $CRWD 10/16 (Short $265 Put)
+30.77%
Held 2 hours
Executed with Radon
https://radon.run
💸 Closed $CRWD 10/16 (Short $265 Put)
+30.77%
Held 2 hours
Executed with Radon
https://radon.run
+30.77%
Held 2 hours
Executed with Radon
https://radon.run
67
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See translation
NOBODY IS LONG
The Morgan Stanley Global Risk Demand Index ends "sharply at roughly -2 (Fear)" at the right edge.
NOBODY IS LONG
The Morgan Stanley Global Risk Demand Index ends "sharply at roughly -2 (Fear)" at the right edge.
The Morgan Stanley Global Risk Demand Index ends "sharply at roughly -2 (Fear)" at the right edge.
68
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See translation
$5 a month to keep the spam out. High signal.
$5 a month to keep the spam out. High signal.
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See translation
New Position: $SPCX
After nailing the long breakout and shorting the top, $SPCX has now pulled back to the exact level of the breakout ~$160.
This is where I wanna be long again and the vols are all elevated.
I like the $175/$200 call spreads again but this time, expiring no 11/13. They are about $4.00 per combo, which makes this a 5:1 payout, real juice in the trade.
Now, if we pull back further, I will sell puts to finance this trade. Right now I'm just paying premium.
Recall the market is a little creaky after the new ATH with Nasdaq, but we are in a trader's market and $SPCX is a retail favorite.
I'd rather be long after this textbook pullback than flat.
New Position: $SPCX
After nailing the long breakout and shorting the top, $SPCX has now pulled back to the exact level of the breakout ~$160.
This is where I wanna be long again and the vols are all elevated.
I like the $175/$200 call spreads again but this time, expiring no 11/13. They are about $4.00 per combo, which makes this a 5:1 payout, real juice in the trade.
Now, if we pull back further, I will sell puts to finance this trade. Right now I'm just paying premium.
Recall the market is a little creaky after the new ATH with Nasdaq, but we are in a trader's market and $SPCX is a retail favorite.
I'd rather be long after this textbook pullback than flat.
After nailing the long breakout and shorting the top, $SPCX has now pulled back to the exact level of the breakout ~$160.
This is where I wanna be long again and the vols are all elevated.
I like the $175/$200 call spreads again but this time, expiring no 11/13. They are about $4.00 per combo, which makes this a 5:1 payout, real juice in the trade.
Now, if we pull back further, I will sell puts to finance this trade. Right now I'm just paying premium.
Recall the market is a little creaky after the new ATH with Nasdaq, but we are in a trader's market and $SPCX is a retail favorite.
I'd rather be long after this textbook pullback than flat.
9
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See translation
New Position: $SPCX
After nailing the long breakout and shorting the top, $SPCX has now pulled back to the exact level of the breakout ~$160.
This is where I wanna be long again and the vols are all elevated.
I like the $175/$200 call spreads again but this time, expiring no 11/13. They are about $4.00 per combo, which makes this a 5:1 payout, real juice in the trade.
Now, if we pull back further, I will sell calls to finance this trade. Right now I'm just paying premium.
Recall the market is a little creaky after the new ATH with Nasdaq, but we are in a trader's market and $SPCX is a retail favorite.
I'd rather be long after this textbook pullback than flat.
New Position: $SPCX
After nailing the long breakout and shorting the top, $SPCX has now pulled back to the exact level of the breakout ~$160.
This is where I wanna be long again and the vols are all elevated.
I like the $175/$200 call spreads again but this time, expiring no 11/13. They are about $4.00 per combo, which makes this a 5:1 payout, real juice in the trade.
Now, if we pull back further, I will sell calls to finance this trade. Right now I'm just paying premium.
Recall the market is a little creaky after the new ATH with Nasdaq, but we are in a trader's market and $SPCX is a retail favorite.
I'd rather be long after this textbook pullback than flat.
After nailing the long breakout and shorting the top, $SPCX has now pulled back to the exact level of the breakout ~$160.
This is where I wanna be long again and the vols are all elevated.
I like the $175/$200 call spreads again but this time, expiring no 11/13. They are about $4.00 per combo, which makes this a 5:1 payout, real juice in the trade.
Now, if we pull back further, I will sell calls to finance this trade. Right now I'm just paying premium.
Recall the market is a little creaky after the new ATH with Nasdaq, but we are in a trader's market and $SPCX is a retail favorite.
I'd rather be long after this textbook pullback than flat.
13
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See translation
4 Hour Flip 🌪️
💸 Closed $CRWD 10/30 (Long $250 Put)
+32.80%
Held 4 hours
Executed with Radon
https://radon.run
4 Hour Flip 🌪️
💸 Closed $CRWD 10/30 (Long $250 Put)
+32.80%
Held 4 hours
Executed with Radon
https://radon.run
💸 Closed $CRWD 10/30 (Long $250 Put)
+32.80%
Held 4 hours
Executed with Radon
https://radon.run
6
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@jinglejared is the only guy I’d back for a music startup.
@RebelAudioAI is his latest creation and it’s gonna work.
https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/business/business-news/ai-podcasting-company-rebel-audio-funding-1236724673/
@jinglejared is the only guy I’d back for a music startup.
@RebelAudioAI is his latest creation and it’s gonna work.
https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/business/business-news/ai-podcasting-company-rebel-audio-funding-1236724673/
@RebelAudioAI is his latest creation and it’s gonna work.
https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/business/business-news/ai-podcasting-company-rebel-audio-funding-1236724673/
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In the last week of September, DeepSeek models processed more tokens on OpenRouter than OpenAI, Google, Anthropic and xAI models combined.
In the last week of September, DeepSeek models processed more tokens on OpenRouter than OpenAI, Google, Anthropic and xAI models combined.
39
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KOSPI Drops 1.98% as Foreigners Sell $1.94bn
Retail is the only thing holding up the KOSPI
KOSPI Drops 1.98% as Foreigners Sell $1.94bn
Retail is the only thing holding up the KOSPI
Retail is the only thing holding up the KOSPI
33
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Morgan Stanley: AI CDS basket trades ~45bp wider than CDX IG
MS says buying CDS protection "remains our preferred way of playing the AI story in the credit derivatives market."
The reason is not just a bearish default call.
MS expects "increasing needs for non-economic hedging to manage counterparty exposure," even in a benign scenario where AI investments are profitable and continue.
That is an important distinction.
The hedge bid can grow even if the capex cycle keeps working.
More AI financing creates more counterparty exposure, and that creates more demand for protection.
Morgan Stanley: AI CDS basket trades ~45bp wider than CDX IG
MS says buying CDS protection "remains our preferred way of playing the AI story in the credit derivatives market."
The reason is not just a bearish default call.
MS expects "increasing needs for non-economic hedging to manage counterparty exposure," even in a benign scenario where AI investments are profitable and continue.
That is an important distinction.
The hedge bid can grow even if the capex cycle keeps working.
More AI financing creates more counterparty exposure, and that creates more demand for protection.
MS says buying CDS protection "remains our preferred way of playing the AI story in the credit derivatives market."
The reason is not just a bearish default call.
MS expects "increasing needs for non-economic hedging to manage counterparty exposure," even in a benign scenario where AI investments are profitable and continue.
That is an important distinction.
The hedge bid can grow even if the capex cycle keeps working.
More AI financing creates more counterparty exposure, and that creates more demand for protection.
40
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See translation
Hedge what’s actually falling - AI stocks
SPXXAI March 85% put costs 132bps vs 101bps for SPX equivalent
The 6th percentile on a 2-year lookback is the basis for that cheapness.
Downside protection on the S&P excluding AI stocks, which has fallen roughly 7% from its late-August peak while the cap-weighted index sits near all-time highs, you pay a roughly 30% premium over the equivalent SPX put.
The premium exists because SPXXAI is the index that is actually moving lower.
The cap-weighted SPX, dominated by the AI names, is suppressing implied vol at the index level even as the average constituent is well off its highs.
That’s roughly a 30% premium for protection on the part of the market that's actually falling.
Hedge what’s actually falling - AI stocks
SPXXAI March 85% put costs 132bps vs 101bps for SPX equivalent
The 6th percentile on a 2-year lookback is the basis for that cheapness.
Downside protection on the S&P excluding AI stocks, which has fallen roughly 7% from its late-August peak while the cap-weighted index sits near all-time highs, you pay a roughly 30% premium over the equivalent SPX put.
The premium exists because SPXXAI is the index that is actually moving lower.
The cap-weighted SPX, dominated by the AI names, is suppressing implied vol at the index level even as the average constituent is well off its highs.
That’s roughly a 30% premium for protection on the part of the market that's actually falling.
SPXXAI March 85% put costs 132bps vs 101bps for SPX equivalent
The 6th percentile on a 2-year lookback is the basis for that cheapness.
Downside protection on the S&P excluding AI stocks, which has fallen roughly 7% from its late-August peak while the cap-weighted index sits near all-time highs, you pay a roughly 30% premium over the equivalent SPX put.
The premium exists because SPXXAI is the index that is actually moving lower.
The cap-weighted SPX, dominated by the AI names, is suppressing implied vol at the index level even as the average constituent is well off its highs.
That’s roughly a 30% premium for protection on the part of the market that's actually falling.
64
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Citadel Securities: token price fell more than half but Azure AI token consumption is up ~4.5x
Effective access per dollar is actually worse, not better.
This is as a demonstration of why cheaper intelligence need not mean a smaller compute bill.
Falling token prices are being offset by more intensive usage and broader deployment.
What is good for adoption can simultaneously be challenging for model producers' pricing power.
Non-technical Wall Street analysts continue to be short the right tail on compute and inference demand. It’s at least an order of magnitude higher than they expect, yet the hyperscalers know this and it’s why they are investing over $1T in 2027 for datacenter buildouts.
Citadel Securities: token price fell more than half but Azure AI token consumption is up ~4.5x
Effective access per dollar is actually worse, not better.
This is as a demonstration of why cheaper intelligence need not mean a smaller compute bill.
Falling token prices are being offset by more intensive usage and broader deployment.
What is good for adoption can simultaneously be challenging for model producers' pricing power.
Non-technical Wall Street analysts continue to be short the right tail on compute and inference demand. It’s at least an order of magnitude higher than they expect, yet the hyperscalers know this and it’s why they are investing over $1T in 2027 for datacenter buildouts.
Effective access per dollar is actually worse, not better.
This is as a demonstration of why cheaper intelligence need not mean a smaller compute bill.
Falling token prices are being offset by more intensive usage and broader deployment.
What is good for adoption can simultaneously be challenging for model producers' pricing power.
Non-technical Wall Street analysts continue to be short the right tail on compute and inference demand. It’s at least an order of magnitude higher than they expect, yet the hyperscalers know this and it’s why they are investing over $1T in 2027 for datacenter buildouts.
62
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Gold call positioning is 3x average, and it triples the price impact of physical demand
@GoldmanSachs has net call open interest holding near 2.3 million contracts.
Normally 100 tonnes of conviction demand moves gold about 2%.
Gold call positioning is 3x average, and it triples the price impact of physical demand
@GoldmanSachs has net call open interest holding near 2.3 million contracts.
Normally 100 tonnes of conviction demand moves gold about 2%.
@GoldmanSachs has net call open interest holding near 2.3 million contracts.
Normally 100 tonnes of conviction demand moves gold about 2%.
13
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Gold fell >8% in September while ETF inflows hit 70t: a combination never previously observed since January 2004
Gold fell >8% in September while ETF inflows hit 70t: a combination never previously observed since January 2004
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See translation
2027 AI capex estimates doubled since November
@morganstanly has revised AI capex estimates "sharply higher in every year," with 2027 ballooning from $687bn to $1.384tn and 2028 from $763bn to $1.547tn versus the Nov-2025 numbers.
GOOGL at $400bn and AMZN at $350bn drive the 2028 total, and the revision is the story: the base case got twice as large in under a year.
2027 AI capex estimates doubled since November
@morganstanly has revised AI capex estimates "sharply higher in every year," with 2027 ballooning from $687bn to $1.384tn and 2028 from $763bn to $1.547tn versus the Nov-2025 numbers.
GOOGL at $400bn and AMZN at $350bn drive the 2028 total, and the revision is the story: the base case got twice as large in under a year.
@morganstanly has revised AI capex estimates "sharply higher in every year," with 2027 ballooning from $687bn to $1.384tn and 2028 from $763bn to $1.547tn versus the Nov-2025 numbers.
GOOGL at $400bn and AMZN at $350bn drive the 2028 total, and the revision is the story: the base case got twice as large in under a year.
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🚨 **BITCOIN WARNING: THE NEXT MOVE COULD BE BRUTAL**
Bitcoin is repeating the exact pattern I warned about.
**Don’t chase the failed relief rally.** A temporary bounce doesn’t necessarily signal a trend reversal.
📉 **My downside roadmap:**
$87K → $83K → $75K → $68K → $62K
These are the key downside levels I’m watching over the coming weeks.
Save this post and revisit it in a few weeks to see how the price action unfolds.
**My previous calls:**
* 🎯 $17K Bitcoin bottom in 2022
* 🎯 $126K Bitcoin top in 2025
* 🎯 $58K local bottom in 2026
The market rewards patience, discipline, and risk management — not chasing every rally.
**Stay sharp. Follow the levels. Manage your risk.** 📊
*These are potential price targets, not guaranteed outcomes. Always do your own research.*
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