灼见Cryptosighted

$BTC Interpretation of Non-Farm Payroll Data!!!

After the Non-Farm Payrolls came out, my biggest takeaway is that the Fed has even more compelling reasons to hold steady in October.

First, let’s look at a few key figures. Non-Farm Payrolls increased by only 29,000, far below the expected 84,000. The unemployment rate rose to 4.2%. In addition, revisions over the previous two months total a downward adjustment of 60,000. In the interest rate swap market, traders now price the probability of a rate hike in October at just 17%. Even more striking, the Kalshi prediction market prices a higher chance of holding rates steady in October at 85%.

The CME FedWatch data change is also very straightforward— the probability of keeping rates unchanged in October rose from about 76% the previous day to 86%.

In fact, before the Non-Farm Payrolls were released, Fed officials had already been signaling this. New York Fed President Williams said there is “no need for urgency” around the next rate hike, and Vice Chair Jefferson also noted that policymakers need more time to observe the data. Allianz Chief Economic Advisor Mohamed El-Erian commented as well that this set of data will further reinforce the impact of recent Fed officials’ remarks, and market expectations for an October rate hike are cooling.

However, keep in mind: this Non-Farm report only makes rate hikes feel “less urgent,” but it does not mean a policy turn. Inflation is still the Fed’s top concern. While the probability of no move in October is high, how things play out in December will depend on subsequent inflation data.

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🎁🎁🎁🎁🧧🧧🧧🧧

🌅Saturday morning light, sink in and gather strength🍃
As market conditions shift and turn unpredictable, real confidence comes from the knowledge you accumulate day by day📊
Don’t chase fleeting hot trends, don’t blindly follow short-lived noise✨
Stay patient, work diligently in silence—time will reward those who persist💛
Together on the way, we move steadily toward the distance that’s ours🌟
#比特币资金费率升至10%未平仓合约回升

A rain makes the old street’s pavement gleam. Beneath the towering buildings, the most ordinary life in the city is quietly tucked away. The sound of rain dulls the noise, and pedestrians slow their pace. Life doesn’t have to be hurried all the time—at this damp, quiet street corner, feel the gentle warmth of everyday life.

🌹Hope is a light that shines,
Kindness is a heart that beats,
Together, they illuminate the path,
And guide us towards a bright future.
Iwish you the best.🌹

Kindly✨
@Syco 疯子 🌹
$BNB

The essence of trading is simply waiting for the flowers to bloom. When you’ve watched the order book and the candlestick charts long enough, you know where things will rise and where they’ll fall—everyone has that figured out. What’s hard is that most people just want the flowers to open immediately, to enter the market immediately, without the patience to wait for the season when they bloom. Their money either comes with a high price tag or ongoing costs, or it’s just waiting to pay rent and buy meals. So they can’t wait for the blooming season; they end up becoming fertilizer for the flowers too soon—turning into liquidity in the market itself and losing all their chips.

Accidentally spotted CZ on VTV—the Vietnam National Television 🇻🇳… while promoting cryptocurrencies in general。。。
#1688

#美国9月非农仅增2.9万人失业率升至4.2% $BNB $LINK with Mike’s brother—learning coin-margined contract trading for the first time 😊

🌅 Dawn Breaks the First Page, with Mountains and Seas in Your Heart 🍃
Fluctuations in the market rise and fall—this is normal. No need to let short-term swings stir your emotions 📊
Deepen your understanding, let it settle within, and keep your own rhythm steady ✨
All the quiet accumulations will eventually turn into the confidence to move forward 💛
The road is long—go forth calmly with like-minded companions who share the same frequency 🌟

#交易心理

#比特币升至8.5万美元附近

#1688家族family

🚨 BITCOIN JUST BROKE $86K.

But this time, the real catalyst may not be crypto.

It may be:

29,000.

U.S. payrolls added just 29K jobs,
far below the 90K expected.

Markets immediately repriced:

📉 October hike odds → ~15%
📉 U.S. 10Y yield → ~5.17%
🛢️ Brent → ~$99
₿ BTC → above $86K, +3% in 24H

The logic is simple:

WEAKER JOBS
↓
LESS FED PRESSURE
↓
LOWER YIELDS
↓
MORE ROOM FOR RISK ASSETS

And here’s the interesting part:

U.S. spot BTC ETFs recorded
a ~$92.9M net outflow on Oct. 1.

So:

ETF FLOW WAS NEGATIVE.

BTC STILL BROKE $86K.

That raises the real question:

IS MACRO TAKING CONTROL OF BTC AGAIN?

If yields keep falling
and oil stays around or below $100,

one of Bitcoin’s biggest macro headwinds
may finally be easing.

Now I’m watching:

₿ BTC holding $86K
📈 The ~$87K area
📉 U.S. 10Y yields
🏦 October Fed expectations
💰 The next BTC ETF flow

👇 Your take?

MACRO RELIEF KEEPS PUSHING BTC 🟢

or

BTC PULLS BACK NEAR $87K 🔴?

#BTC #ETH #BNB

You received what appeared to be a normal USDT payment, and your wallet also shows “USDT”.

So, you completed the transaction without further verification. But this “USDT” might not be the USDT you think it is.

Scammers can create counterfeit tokens that look identical to legitimate ones. However, only when you try to exchange or sell them do you find that their actual value may be far lower than you expected.

Want to know how this fake-payment scam works? 👉 点击了解

🚨 BITCOIN’S BULL SCORE JUST HIT 90/100.

But there’s one problem:

WHERE ARE THE BUYERS?

BTC recently pushed to around $87.4K.

Now it’s back near $83K.

And underneath the price:

🟢 Bull Score → 90/100
📉 30-day spot demand → down ~170K BTC
⚡ Futures demand growth → down ~90% in 15 days
💰 Short-term unrealized profit → ~33%

That creates a fascinating contradiction:

THE MARKET LOOKS BULLISH.

BUT DEMAND IS COOLING.

So the real question isn’t:

“Is Bitcoin still in a bull market?”

It’s:

WHO BUYS THE NEXT LEG HIGHER?

Because a rally needs more than fewer sellers.

It needs:

FRESH DEMAND.

If new buyers return,

$87K could become another breakout level.

But if demand keeps fading,

highly profitable holders may start taking money off the table.

Now I’m watching:

💰 BTC spot demand
⚡ New futures positioning
📍 $80K–$83K zone
🧱 The recent ~$87K high

👇 Your take?

FRESH BUYERS RETURN 🟢
or
THE BULL MARKET NEEDS TO COOL 🔴?

#BTC #ETH #BNB