CryptoQuant Quicktake

The cryptocurrency exchange industry is entering a new phase of consolidation. Within the past week, both BitMEX and BitMart announced plans to cease operations, marking another major shift in the competitive landscape.
For years, the industry supported hundreds of exchanges competing for liquidity. Today, however, stricter regulations, rising compliance costs, and increasing institutional participation are making it difficult for smaller platforms to survive. Capital is gradually concentrating on a handful of global exchanges.
CryptoQuant's Binance Exchange Reserve chart reflects this structural change. After declining earlier this year, Binance's Bitcoin reserves have recovered and remain at relatively high levels, indicating that liquidity continues to migrate toward the world's largest exchange rather than being evenly distributed across the industry.
This trend should not be interpreted simply as increased selling pressure. Modern exchange reserves also support ETF arbitrage, derivatives trading, institutional custody, and market-making activities. As market structure evolves, reserve balances increasingly represent where liquidity and confidence are concentrated.
In XWIN's view, the closures of BitMEX and BitMart are not isolated events but part of a broader industry consolidation. The next phase of the crypto market is likely to be dominated by fewer, larger, and more transparent exchanges capable of meeting institutional standards. Going forward, investors should pay attention not only to Bitcoin's price but also to where liquidity is accumulating, as exchange reserve trends may provide valuable insight into the future direction of the market.
Written by XWIN Japan

Bitcoin drifted lower this week, closing at $64,297 on July 25 after failing to hold the $66,520 high set on July 21. The price move is unremarkable, but two flow metrics underneath it are less so.
The first is a sharp reversal in stablecoin behavior. Stablecoin netflow into Binance swung deeply negative this week, down over 315% versus the 90-day baseline. Stablecoins leaving the exchange typically means dry powder is being withdrawn rather than staged to buy—a subtle drain of purchasing power that often accompanies fading short-term conviction, even when spot price holds a range.
The second is more unusual. Inflows of relatively young coins aged 3–6 months into Binance exploded to extreme readings—thousands of percent above baseline off a very low starting point. Alongside this, the share of 1–3 month-old coins moving to exchanges rose roughly 208% versus the quarterly average. Younger coins arriving on exchanges generally reflects recent buyers, not long-term holders, repositioning—a group historically quicker to sell into weakness.
The backdrop stays quiet elsewhere. Binance funding rates remain flat near 0.00–0.01 throughout the window, so leverage isn’t driving anything. The Coinbase Premium softened to -0.12 by July 25, its weakest reading of the period, hinting that U.S. spot demand is cooling rather than stepping in.
The takeaway isn’t directional. It’s that two independent signals—stablecoin outflows and younger-coin migration to exchanges—are pointing the same way: toward reduced near-term buying appetite beneath a flat price. That combination has historically preceded softer, range-bound stretches rather than breakouts. Worth watching whether stablecoin flows turn positive again, or whether this quiet drain deepens.
Written by CryptoOnchain

Bitcoin’s Long-Term Holder Net Position Change, measured over 30 days, has surged to one of the highest levels on record. However, this does not simply mean that veteran investors are buying aggressively today.
A major factor is the 155-day classification lag. Bitcoin purchased months ago through spot ETFs, institutional custody platforms, corporate treasuries, and dip-buying investors is now being reclassified as long-term holder supply because it has remained unmoved.
Since the approval of US spot Bitcoin ETFs in 2024, large amounts of BTC have been absorbed into institutional custody. At the same time, exchange balances have declined, reducing the amount of Bitcoin readily available for sale. The 2024 halving has also lowered new supply, further tightening market conditions.
This creates a structural shift: more Bitcoin is being held by investors with longer time horizons, while liquid supply continues to shrink.
Still, record LTH accumulation does not guarantee an immediate price increase. It is better viewed as a supply-side signal. A stronger bullish move would likely require renewed ETF inflows, continued exchange balance declines, improving stablecoin liquidity, and Bitcoin reclaiming key short-term holder cost levels.
XWIN views the current trend as positive for the medium to long term. The market may be building a tighter supply structure that could amplify the impact of the next major wave of demand.
Written by XWIN Japan

On June 1st, 2026, Gate.com launched real stock trading, USDT-settled and executed through regulated brokers, expanding coverage to more than 12,500 stocks and ETFs. An examination of daily data following this date reveals a notable shift in the composition of TradFi trading volume.
Volume Reallocation Across Asset Classes
Over the 30-day period ending July 25th, equity trading volume grew by more than 350 percent, while precious metals volume declined 48 percent and oil 16 percent. This shift should not be interpreted as a flight to safety, as the daily volatility correlation between equities and metals remains positive (approximately 0.59). The data indicate a structural reallocation of volume toward the new equity basket, rather than a temporary defensive rotation.
Broadening of Leadership Across Tickers
Through the end of spring, equity volume was concentrated largely in a single ticker (SPCX). Following the product launch, market leadership became distributed across several tickers:
GOOGLX led with 505 percent growth
AMZNX and COINX each grew approximately 300 percent
MSTRX and INTC exceeded 220 percent
TSLAX remained among the highest-volume tickers, up 129 percent
The distribution of leadership from a single name to a diversified basket is, from a market-structure perspective, a sign of product maturity. This observation aligns with Gate’s Q2 report, in which the user base surpassed 58 million.
Conclusion
The data suggest that the launch of real stock trading has driven a change in users’ capital allocation patterns beyond a simple increase in volume. The ability to access US equities within the same ecosystem, without the need for a traditional broker, has transformed the TradFi segment on Gate.com from an emerging product into an active and maturing market.
Written by CryptoOnchain

The current Z-Score for Bitcoin futures trading volume on Binance stands at -1.19, coinciding with Bitcoin trading near $64,000. This reading is particularly significant, as the indicator has been on a weakening trend since October 2025, before moving into negative territory and remaining at depressed levels over recent months.
A Z-Score of -1.19 indicates that the current trading volume is approximately 1.19 standard deviations below its 12-month average, reflecting a notable decline in futures market activity compared with typical levels. More importantly, this weakness is not a temporary phenomenon but part of a sustained trend that has persisted since October 2025, suggesting a gradual and ongoing decline in trading momentum and market participation within Bitcoin derivatives on Binance.
The prolonged weakness in the indicator has coincided with Bitcoin's decline from its previous highs to around $64,000. This may reflect reduced speculative appetite and increased caution among traders, particularly as futures trading volumes have yet to recover to the elevated levels seen during earlier periods.
However, a Z-Score of -1.19 does not necessarily imply that Bitcoin's price will continue to decline, as the indicator measures the deviation of trading volume from its historical average rather than the direction of price. A recovery of the Z-Score toward zero would suggest that trading activity is returning to more typical levels, while persistently negative readings would indicate that the futures market continues to experience relatively subdued participation.
Written by Arab Chain

The 30-day trend in Miner to Exchange Flow has remained inside a descending channel since mid-2023.
After peaking above 12,000 BTC, miners transferred 4,841 BTC to Binance over the past 30 days, representing 98.66% of all miner flows to exchanges.
Beneath price, this points to a structural reduction in the amount of miner-controlled supply reaching visible spot venues.
Part of the decline is mechanical.
Following the 2024 halving, miners receive fewer BTC for the same amount of computational work, meaning absolute BTC-denominated flows should naturally decrease. Therefore, lower flows cannot be interpreted entirely as stronger miner conviction.
However, the trend may also reflect a more mature mining industry.
Better-capitalized operators can finance expenses through debt, equity issuance, production hedging, or private liquidity channels instead of immediately selling BTC on exchanges. Another possibility is that some miners have already reduced their inventories, leaving less accumulated supply available for future distribution.
The recent recovery from roughly 3,500 BTC toward 6,000 BTC suggests miners used the price rebound to monetize production or cover operating costs. Yet the increase has already faded and remains within the broader downward structure. Despite Bitcoin’s renewed weakness, there is currently no visible expansion consistent with broad miner capitulation.
This is constructive for market structure because miners are contributing less marginal supply to exchanges. But it is not bullish confirmation by itself. The signal becomes stronger if miner reserves stabilize while flows remain subdued.
Conversely, a breakout above the descending channel, combined with falling reserves and deteriorating price, would indicate that controlled distribution is turning into renewed financial stress.
Written by MorenoDV_

Bitcoin’s Supply in Profit has recovered to 57.5% as of July 22, up from the 2026 low of 46.2% recorded on June 30.
In roughly three weeks, more than 10% of the circulating supply flipped from unrealized loss back into profit as price rebounded from the mid $50,000s toward the mid $60,000s.
This recovery is meaningful, but history sets a higher bar. Looking at the last four major bear market bottoms:
April 2012: approximately 69%
November 2015: approximately 64%
May 2019: approximately 83%
April 2023: approximately 77%
Every sustained exit from a prolonged bear market occurred with Supply in Profit at 64% or higher.
The current reading of 57.5% shows improvement and reduced underwater pressure, yet it remains short of the levels that previously marked durable bottoms. Short-term holders are currently spending coins near break-even, with STH SOPR hovering around 1.0, while longer-term holders have continued to show accumulation strength earlier in the year.
The takeaway is neutral to constructive rather than decisively bullish. Selling pressure from holders in loss has eased, but the market has not yet reached the profit cushion that characterized previous cycle recoveries.
It is worth monitoring whether Supply in Profit can push through the 60 to 65% zone in the coming weeks.
Written by theophiluspep

Since the approval of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs in January 2024, Bitcoin has rapidly shifted from a retail-driven market toward one increasingly influenced by institutional capital.
The biggest impact of ETFs is accessibility. Financial institutions previously faced major hurdles in holding Bitcoin directly, including private-key management, custody, auditing, compliance, and internal controls. ETFs allow them to gain exposure through ordinary brokerage accounts and established financial infrastructure.
By 2026, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs had grown to roughly $180 billion in total assets. Their combined Bitcoin holdings rose from about 620,000 BTC after approval to a peak near 1.38 million BTC, while still remaining around 1.2 million BTC despite subsequent market corrections.
Price-range data also shows significant ETF inflows even when Bitcoin traded between $115,000 and $125,000. This suggests that institutions are not simply waiting for lower prices. Many are allocating to Bitcoin as part of long-term portfolio diversification and client demand.
Participants now include asset managers, RIAs, hedge funds, banks, university endowments, corporations, and pension-related investors. Even a 1% allocation from a $1 trillion portfolio would represent $10 billion in potential demand.
The real value of Bitcoin ETFs is therefore not only price appreciation. They have created regulated financial infrastructure through which long-term global capital can enter the Bitcoin market.
Japan may eventually experience a similar transformation. If a future Japanese Bitcoin ETF captured only 0.5% to 1% of the country’s roughly ¥300 trillion in investment assets, potential inflows could reach approximately ¥1.5 trillion to ¥3 trillion.
Written by XWIN Japan

ETH is currently at 1,860 dollars. The average cost basis (RP) sits at 2,305 dollars. In other words, ETH investors are on average underwater right now.
When we look at the metric historically, the longer Ethereum stays below the RP, the weaker it gets, and price drifts all the way down to the lower band (green). We haven't seen that yet in the current bear rally, and the lower band sits around 1,150.
That said, ETH has started to recover in recent days, together with BTC. Will it manage to climb back above the RP for the first time this cycle without paying a visit to the lower band? We will all watch and see together.
Which do you think comes first, the RP or the lower band?
Written by burakkesmeci

$USDC inflows to exchanges have returned to a net inflow state.
After shifting to a net outflow state on May 11, stablecoin outflows persisted for over two months. However, it has recently returned to a net inflow state.
The fact that $USDC has shifted to a net inflow state signifies that U.S. funds are flowing into exchanges.
Generally, when funds inflow to exchanges, buying power tends to increase. This manifests as an upward price trend.
The $USDC netflow indicators show that the market is shifting toward a positive trend.
Written by CW8900

With the recent rebound in $BTC, small $BTC whales holding 100-1k have returned to a profitable state.
Large whales were already in a profitable state. However, they were experiencing minor losses.
The point at which they transitioned to a profitable state was the starting point of an uptrend. At the very least, a short-term rally took place.
Similar signals appeared last March and April, leading to short-term rise.
This time as well, we can expect at least a short-term rise. Depending on the trend, this could potentially mark the starting point of a rally.
Written by CW8900

Today’s BTC on-chain data points to higher short-term volatility and potential sell pressure rather than clear buy-side strength.
Exchange netflow reached +5,044 BTC, up about 91% from the previous day and the third-largest inflow in the past 31 days. This does not guarantee immediate selling, but it increases the amount of BTC potentially available for sale.
Funding flipped negative from 0.003826 to -0.001371, the only negative reading in the provided 31-day period. Long-side overheating has eased, but bearish positioning has strengthened.
Open interest rose 0.69% to roughly $22.5B and is now about 4.59% above its 30-day average. Rising leverage combined with negative funding increases the risk of sharp liquidations in either direction.
Realized cap, a supplementary indicator, declined for three consecutive days to about $1.061T. The drop is small, but it suggests that capital inflows are not expanding strongly.
Today’s evidence leans slightly toward distribution and short-term risk. However, this scenario would weaken if exchange flows turn negative while funding remains stable, which could raise the probability of a short squeeze.
Overall, exchange inflows are increasing, leverage is rebuilding, and funding has turned negative. This combination favors caution over aggressive directional positioning. Tomorrow, the key signals are whether netflows remain positive and whether open interest continues rising alongside negative funding.
Written by CoinNiel

Bitcoin’s Short-Term Holder (STH) market cap fell to $236.2 billion on July 25, marking only the second time the metric has moved below the level recorded on October 3, 2024, which was the lowest reading seen during 2024.
The decline highlights a significant contraction in the market value currently held within Bitcoin’s short-term holder cohort, while recent realized profit and loss data also point to renewed pressure on newer market participants.
On July 13, Bitcoin short-term holder realized losses surged to approximately $1.75 billion, marking another sharp wave of loss realization.
The losses were around $340 million, or 24%, higher than the $1.41 billion recorded on June 2.
This creates an important divergence: short-term holders are no longer realizing losses at the intensity seen earlier in July, yet the total market value represented by this cohort remains near unusually depressed historical levels.
The decline in STH market cap should not automatically be interpreted as an equivalent amount of capital leaving Bitcoin.
The metric can also be affected by Bitcoin aging out of the short-term holder classification into the long-term holder cohort, alongside changes in BTC price and the amount of supply classified as short-term held.
Overall, the combination of a $236.2 billion STH market cap and the recent -$1.75 billion realized-loss event indicates that Bitcoin’s newer holders have experienced substantial pressure, while the continued contraction of the short-term cohort remains one of the key on-chain developments to watch.
Written by Amr Taha

According to CryptoQuant, Ethereum may be approaching a long-term accumulation phase, and Binance data is providing one of the clearest signals.
The amount of ETH held on Binance has fallen from nearly 5 million ETH in mid-2025 to around 3.8 million ETH today. Exchange reserves typically decline when investors withdraw assets into self-custody or long-term storage rather than keeping them available for sale. This suggests immediate selling pressure is gradually easing.
The trend aligns with another important on-chain signal. Ethereum is currently trading below its Realized Price, the average on-chain acquisition cost of all ETH holders. Historically, when ETH trades below this level, the market has often entered periods of accumulation before a broader recovery.
CryptoQuant also notes that ETH/BTC trading activity has already fallen into the range that marked previous cycle bottoms, while institutional demand, measured through ETF holdings, has started to recover after months of weakness. Although valuation metrics such as the ETH/BTC MVRV ratio have not yet reached historical bottom levels, several indicators are moving in a constructive direction.
From XWIN's perspective, Binance reserves deserve particular attention because they reflect real investor behavior rather than market sentiment alone. A sustained decline in exchange balances usually means fewer coins are immediately available for sale, reducing potential supply pressure.
While this does not confirm that Ethereum has reached its final bottom, the combination of declining Binance reserves, improving on-chain metrics, and recovering institutional interest suggests that downside risk is gradually diminishing. If this trend continues, Ethereum could be well positioned to outperform Bitcoin during the next phase of the market cycle.
Written by XWIN Japan

Ethereum’s two-week climb from 1,796 to a peak of 1,933 stalled on July 23, pulling back to $1,876. The price action alone isn’t the interesting part - it’s what’s happening in the fee layer that’s worth a closer look.
For most of the past quarter, base-layer economics on Ethereum have been remarkably quiet: median transaction fees sit more than 82% below their 90-day average, and tip fees are down roughly 96%. But the very short-term readings tell a different story. Over the past week, median tip fees jumped nearly 86%, and median transaction fees rose about 16%. This is a small absolute move on a very low base, but the direction matters - it’s the first meaningful uptick in fee pressure after a long stretch of decline, often an early hint that block space is starting to see competition again.
Reinforcing the “building, not speculating” read, new smart contract deployments remain elevated - up close to 190% versus the 90-day baseline. Fresh contracts plus rising tips can point to genuine on-chain demand returning rather than idle capital.
On the exchange side, the picture is mixed. Binance funding rates actually cooled about 28% week-over-week, suggesting leverage isn’t the main driver here - a notable contrast to phases where price gains lean heavily on derivatives. Net exchange flows swung sharply too, from a -73,000 ETH outflow on July 20 to modest inflows as price peaked and pulled back.
Meanwhile staking keeps grinding higher to a fresh 33.69%, steadily thinning the liquid float.
The takeaway isn’t directional. It’s that fee activity and contract deployment are quietly recovering while leverage stays subdued - an early-stage combination that, if it persists, tends to reflect organic usage rather than speculative froth. Worth watching whether the fee uptick holds or fades back into the prior lull.
Written by CryptoOnchain

XRP exchange reserves are showing a notable divergence across major trading venues, with Upbit falling to its lowest level since May while Binance remains well below its March peak.
Upbit’s XRP reserve declined to approximately 6.43 billion XRP, marking its lowest reading since May.
The exchange had reached a recent reserve high of about 6.515 billion XRP on May 30, meaning its balance has decreased by roughly 85 million XRP, or about 1.3%, from that peak.
The scale of Upbit’s reserve also remains notable compared with other major exchanges displayed in the dataset.
At 6.43 billion XRP, Upbit currently holds roughly 2.47 times the XRP reserve recorded on Binance.
Binance’s XRP reserve stood near 2.60 billion XRP on July 24, compared with a 2026 high of approximately 2.80 billion XRP on March 17. This represents a decline of around 200 million XRP, or roughly 7.1%, from the March peak.
Bithumb, meanwhile, recorded approximately 1.83 billion XRP, placing its reserve close to the levels observed on May 30. This creates a clear divergence across the three exchanges: Upbit has moved to a multi-month low, Binance remains materially below its March high, while Bithumb has returned near its late-May level.
The differences are particularly relevant when monitoring XRP’s exchange-side liquidity structure.
Upbit and Bithumb both maintain comparatively large XRP balances among the exchanges shown in the dataset, making changes in their reserves useful indicators when assessing how exchange-held XRP liquidity is evolving.
Importantly, reserve declines alone do not determine whether XRP is being moved into self-custody, transferred between platforms, or redistributed through other market channels.
Written by Amr Taha

So if smart money is buying record amounts while price drops, what could that be telling us?
What Is LTH Net Position Change?
LTH Net Position Change shows how much the total BTC held by long-term investors has increased or decreased over 30 days.
The green zone means these hands are accumulating, while the red zone means they're selling. In short, this metric lets us read what smart money is actually doing. The higher the green climbs, the more aggressive the buying.
Current Situation
Right now this metric is firing a flare in the positive direction.
The largest green reading in 6 years just printed. On May 24, 2026, it hit 1.29 million BTC/30D, surpassing even the August 2017 record. In other words, the strongest hands were on stage exactly when price was at its weakest. Accumulation on this scale is proof that strong hands are still present for the long term.
As Bitcoin approaches the realized price level, strong hands step onto the stage.
Conclusion
On its own, this data isn't enough to call the bull back, but that doesn't change the fact that it's a strong positive signal.
On top of that, following these buys, Bitcoin staged a roughly 15% rally from 58K to 66K. The strong LTH sentiment that came after the record data carried price almost all the way to the STH RP (short-term holder cost basis), which is 68K. Whether or not this level gets broken will be the critical decision zone that determines the short-term trend.
Do you think BTC can close above the STH RP (68K) in Q3?
Written by burakkesmeci

Data from CryptoQuant shows that the number of ERC20 stablecoin deposit transactions into Binance is currently around 12K transactions, after several strong spikes appeared in July.
This shows that stablecoin activity moving onto Binance is still being maintained, reflecting that some liquidity is returning to the exchange to prepare for trading or wait for buying opportunities.
However, the current level has cooled down compared to the previous large spikes, so it is still too early to say that stablecoin inflows are clearly exploding again.
Written by Rei Researcher

Recent on-chain metrics show a noticeable uptick in Exchange Inflows within the 6M–12M Spent Output Age Bands, accompanied by heightened volatility in its market dominance. This increased movement of coins—held between 6 and 12 months—toward exchanges may suggest that this particular cohort is actively rebalancing or repositioning their assets, which could potentially signal early preparations for the next market phase.
Written by nino

Data shows that the BTC MVRV Ratio has declined significantly from the cycle highs, but it is still trading above the Accumulation Zone around MVRV ≤ 1.
This suggests that $BTC valuation has cooled down considerably, but it has not yet entered a clearly undervalued zone like the deep accumulation phases seen in the past.
The notable point is that MVRV is still far from the Distribution / High Risk zone, showing that the market is no longer overheated. However, the fact that it has not revisited the accumulation zone also means that this cannot yet be confirmed as a complete cycle bottom.
Written by Rei Researcher