CryptoQuant Quicktake

An iconic line from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent regarding the U.S. intervention on the Yen.
At the same time, Bessent announced that the U.S. Treasury Department would buy more than $6 billion in 10- to 20-year treasury bonds, an announcement meant to curb the explosive upward trend in bond yields.
An announcement that turned out to be fairly disappointing for many, to the point that the U.S. 10Y is approaching 5% and its last 2023 high, a level similar to that of 2008. The same goes for the U.S. 20Y, which has now been trading above 5% since July.
Beyond this disappointment, the conflict with Iran is intensifying and pushing Brent crude back above $100, further fueling inflation concerns, which in turn is eroding investor confidence even more.
The momentum Bitcoin is trying to build is therefore unfolding against a very complex macroeconomic backdrop. Since 2021, the underlying trend in bond yields has been upward, a dynamic quite different from what Bitcoin had experienced since its inception.
It's therefore easy to understand that liquidity is tightening even further, but there's still one positive point worth noting.
The DXY, which had been on a positive trajectory since July 2025, is showing signs of weakness, slipping back below the $100 mark. A genuine break below its 180-day average, sitting at $99, would bring some relief.
Still, Bitcoin continues to face a tense economic and geopolitical environment that has likely weighed on its performance this cycle.
Written by Darkfost

he Binance XRP Volume Z-Score (30d) indicator shows a decline in momentum in XRP trading volumes on the Binance platform, following a surge in market activity during the second half of August. Data indicates that the Z-Score peaked above 4, coinciding with XRP’s price rise from near $1.00 to over $1.40, reflecting an exceptional spike in trading volume relative to the 30-day average.
However, the indicator subsequently entered a downward trend and is currently hovering near zero. It stood at approximately -0.09 on September 9, while the XRP price stabilized around $1.419. This level implies that current trading volume is very close to the average for the measured period, showing no significant positive or negative deviation from typical activity.
This decline in the Z-Score does not necessarily signal weakness in XRP’s price; rather, it indicates a decline in the exceptional trading volume momentum observed in August. Furthermore, the price’s stability near $1.40, despite trading volumes returning to normal levels, may reflect a consolidation phase as the market awaits a new catalyst.
Consequently, for XRP’s upward trend to continue, it is crucial to monitor whether trading volumes expand again and push the Z-Score into positive territory, which could support sustained momentum. Conversely, if the indicator remains near zero or slips into negative territory, it could signal subdued activity and weakening short-term price momentum.
Written by Arab Chain

As Bitcoin approaches the end of its bear market phase, the institutional Net Bias Index on the CME side has pulled back to the bottom levels seen during 2021–2022. American institutional investors, hedge funds, and asset management firms periodically restructure and rebalance their positions.
During the 2022 macro bottom, Bitcoin plummeted to around $15K while the Net Bias Index dipped to the 8K–10K range. Currently, Bitcoin is trading around the $78K mark with the institutional Net Bias Index sitting at 11K—a metric that actually dropped as low as 8K when Bitcoin was at $60K.
As a reminder, this metric is a composite scoring index calculated by tracking spot ETF flows, OTC trading volumes, and institutional wallet movements.
Data shows that hedge fund firms have significantly reduced their open short positions, signaling that selling pressure on Bitcoin is fading by the day. Overall, the broader picture looks promising. Even if we encounter another dip test or re-test after September, Bitcoin is poised to resume its upward trajectory once spot buying demand confirms strength.
Written by FundingVest

USD/JPY fell from 160.17 to 152.89 in roughly a week as expectations of another Bank of Japan rate hike fueled yen buying and the unwinding of short positions.
A stronger yen can pressure Bitcoin through two channels. Investors borrowing yen to buy risk assets may sell those holdings as repayment costs rise. Japanese investors also face currency losses: BTC's yen price equals its dollar price multiplied by USD/JPY. At $78,500 per BTC, a move from 160.17 to 153.81 cuts its yen value by about ¥500,000.
But is this August 2024 again? Not yet, based on the data presented. CryptoQuant's Short-Term Holder Spent Output Profit Ratio (STH-SOPR) plunged below 1 during that selloff, indicating realized losses. Recent readings around or slightly above 1 suggest no comparable panic among short-term holders.
STH-SOPR alone cannot establish whether carry trades are unwinding. A sustained drop below 1, rising exchange inflows and falling futures open interest would strengthen the case for broader deleveraging.
As USD/JPY approaches 150, watch the BOJ's guidance alongside these signals. For now, the clearest impact is on yen-denominated BTC, while evidence of a global liquidation wave remains limited.
Written by XWIN Japan

Recent CryptoQuant posts paint a mixed picture: Bitcoin shows signs of recovery, but a sustained bull market remains unconfirmed.
Net Realized Profit and Loss has turned positive, while Long-Term Holder SOPR has recovered to 1.2, suggesting easing loss realization. Accumulation addresses now hold around 2.3 million BTC, and hedge fund shorts have declined. Large exchange deposits have not surged despite BTC approaching $80,000.
Yet stronger buying is still needed. The 90-day spot CVD remains neutral, suggesting futures have led much of the rebound. Binance stablecoin reserves recovered by $1.6 billion over a month, but liquidity remains a concern. A negative Coinbase Premium and elevated whale deposit ratios also warrant caution.
These signals are not necessarily contradictory: whale activity can represent a high share of inflows without total deposits surging. Likewise, improving profitability does not guarantee fresh demand.
The key takeaway is that selling pressure appears to be easing, while new spot buyers remain insufficient. A sustained break above $80,000, supported by stronger spot demand and liquidity, would provide firmer evidence of a bullish transition. Until then, leverage-driven volatility remains a risk.
Written by XWIN Japan

Despite a roughly 45% rebound from its recent low, Bitcoin's market is still feeling the effects of low liquidity.
This shows up notably in spot demand, which remains relatively weak, with the Cumulative Volume Delta (90 DMA) still sitting neutral, while on the futures side, buyers have clearly taken the upper hand.
This lack of incoming liquidity is also visible in stablecoin reserves on exchanges. At the peak of this cycle, Binance saw its stablecoin reserves hit a new all-time high for the platform, at over $50 billion.
Since October, however, that dynamic has completely reversed, dragging Binance's stablecoin reserves down by nearly $7 billion. At the height of the correction, investor demand had contracted so sharply that the 90-day change in stablecoin market cap held in Binance's reserves reached -17%.
Today, things have improved slightly: the 90-day market cap change has recovered to -1.6%, and stablecoin reserves have grown by $1.6 billion over the past month.
While this is a positive development in the short term, it's still sluggish and needs more strength behind it to be considered truly meaningful.
That said, make no mistake: Bitcoin has swung back into clearly positive momentum, with a daily RSI at 67, and the 7 and 21-day EMAs turning up and crossing back above the 200-day moving average for the first time since November 2025.
A clean break above the $80 000 level should be the key to fully opening the door for liquidity to return for good.
Written by Darkfost

Bitcoin has risen roughly 25% since August 3, climbing from just above $63,000 to around $79,000, while mid-size investor inflows across Binance, Coinbase Advanced and Coinbase Prime moved in the opposite direction.
Combined inflows across the three venues fell from 10,144 BTC to 8,570 BTC, a decline of about 15.5% over the same period.
The divergence was strongest on Binance, where mid-size inflows dropped nearly 30%, from 4,390 BTC to 3,080 BTC.
Coinbase Advanced declined only 4%, from 3,677 BTC to 3,530 BTC, while Coinbase Prime fell about 5.6%, from 2,077 BTC to 1,960 BTC.
The relative exchange structure also shifted.
Binance stood 713 BTC above Coinbase Advanced on August 3, but by September 9 Coinbase Advanced was 450 BTC higher, representing a swing of more than 1,160 BTC between the two venues.
The data highlights a clear price-inflow divergence: Bitcoin is trading substantially higher than in early August, yet mid-size inflows across these key exchange channels remain lower.
Written by Amr Taha

Data reveals a notable rise in the number of addresses associated with altcoin inflows to cryptocurrency exchanges, with the indicator reaching its highest level since last May, signaling increased user activity and greater movement of altcoins toward trading platforms.
According to the latest data, Binance recorded the highest number of addresses, at approximately 25,856, far outpacing other exchanges. Coinbase ranked second with around 3,574 addresses, followed by OKX with approximately 2,124, while Bybit recorded about 1,588 addresses.
The "Other Exchanges" category, comprising the remaining trading platforms, recorded approximately 6,978 addresses, reflecting widespread activity across a broader range of platforms.
The rise in the number of altcoin inflow addresses indicates increased movement of altcoins toward exchanges, potentially reflecting heightened trading activity or investors' readiness to reallocate their positions. However, this rise does not necessarily imply a sell-off, as coin inflows to exchanges can be linked to trading activity, portfolio restructuring, or increased liquidity.
Written by Arab Chain

• Bitcoin accumulating addresses already hold 2.3M BTC.
• This represents more than 10% of Bitcoin’s maximum supply (21M).
Written by Facundo Fama

Bitcoin’s 7-day open interest change showed a sharp shift across major derivatives venues on September 9, with the reading on Gate.io reaching +$414 million, up from -$57 million on September 6.
That represents a $471 million swing in just three days, moving the 7-day OI change from negative to strongly positive territory while Bitcoin traded near $79,200.
At the same time, the corresponding readings on Binance and Bybit eased substantially from their recent highs.
Binance’s 7-day open interest change stood at +$46 million on September 9, compared with +$926 million on August 25, a decline of roughly 95% from that peak reading.
Bybit recorded +$62 million, down around 87% from the +$470 million seen on September 4.
The contrast highlights a notable change in the distribution of Bitcoin’s recent open-interest expansion across exchanges.
While the latest Gate.io reading turned sharply positive, the previously elevated 7-day changes on Binance and Bybit have moderated significantly.
Importantly, open interest does not by itself reveal whether the newly opened positions are predominantly long or short.
The data therefore points to a divergence across exchanges in the balance between net position opening and position closure.
Where open interest is contracting, the reduction in outstanding positions can help ease excessive leverage and, if accompanied by softer perpetual-market imbalances, may also contribute to lower funding rates, without necessarily implying a directional signal for Bitcoin.
Written by Amr Taha

Whales are still playing an unusually significant role in Binance deposits.
The metric measures the share of exchange inflows accounted for by the largest deposits. A rising ratio therefore does not necessarily mean more BTC is entering Binance in absolute terms; it means that whales represent a larger proportion of the BTC being deposited.
This distinction becomes much more powerful when looking at the 200-day and 365-day moving averages.
During previous major transitions, including 2020 and 2023, a recurring sequence appeared: the 200DMA crossed below the 365DMA, followed by both averages entering sustained downtrends. In other words, whale dominance over Binance deposits gradually faded.
That was important beneath price.
As large-holder exchange activity cooled, one potential source of persistent distribution pressure diminished. Bitcoin subsequently entered periods in which price appreciation became considerably easier to sustain.
The current setup is not there yet.
Both long-term averages remain elevated around the 0.45–0.48 region, meaning whale-sized deposits still represent an unusually large share of Binance inflows. More importantly, we have not yet seen the prolonged decline that characterized the previous structural resets.
The signal I would want to see is therefore not simply a temporary drop in the ratio.
It is a whale cooldown: the 200DMA rolling decisively below the 365DMA, followed by both averages developing negative slopes.
That would suggest large holders are progressively reducing their relative presence on Binance, removing an important source of potential supply from the market.
What to Watch:
A sustained 200DMA/365DMA bearish crossover accompanied by falling values in both averages. The slope matters as much as the crossover itself.
Risk: The ratio remains elevated or reaccelerates, signaling that large-holder deposits continue to dominate Binance flows. In that scenario, distribution risk remains structurally present.
Written by MorenoDV_

In general, $BTC Net Realized Loss state means a period where investors selling their holdings. It signifies a phase where market participants are realizing substantial losses.
Investors sold regardless of the price and capitulated when they could no longer patient losses, and $BTC showed a bearish trend during that period.
However, the NRPL has recently turned positive again. This indicates that the trend of capitulation among market participants has ended and the market is shifting back to a profitable state.
Historically, $BTC has shown a bullish trend when the NRPL is positive, as this is a phase where sufficient buying volume drives the price upward.
That upward trend is just beginning now. The NRPL value remains quite low compared to previous bull markets, suggesting the rally is still in its early stages.
As the price of $BTC rises, more investors will enter the market, further increasing buying demand. This will boost the profits of investors who bought at the lows.
The indicator confirms that we are still in the early stages of a bull market.
Written by CW8900

The $BTC LTH SOPR currently stands at 1.2, having maintained a value above 1 for several days.
When LTH-SOPR is significantly above 1, long-term holders are spending coins at substantial profits relative to their cost basis—a pattern historically associated with distribution during the late stages of a bull market, as experienced holders capitalize on high prices. Extremely high readings have frequently coincided with market cycle peaks, as long-term holders rotate into liquidity. Conversely, when LTH-SOPR approaches or drops below 1, long-term holders are moving coins at or near a loss—a historically rare condition that has marked generational buying opportunities and cycle bottoms.
From February to August of this year, LTH-SOPR remained below 1, and $BTC exhibited a bearish trend. However, the SOPR has recently begun to rise again, and $BTC is continuing its upward trajectory.
This indicator suggests that the bearish trend has ended. Historically, the turn of SOPR above 1 has marked the point preceding a bullish rally.
It is worth noting that an immediate surge did not always follow the moment the indicator crossed above 1; rather, a period of moving sideway typically occurred before a more significant rise took place.
Currently, $BTC is moving sideways following its recent rise. However, this pattern has been observed in every previous bull market. Once this consolidation phase passes, a more substantial upward movement is likely to follow.
Written by CW8900

Binance netflow on the chart is approximately +3,439 ETH. This is not an enormous inflow in absolute terms; however, the strongly positive daily change indicates that the amount of ETH moving to Binance increased noticeably compared with the previous day. Throughout the chart, the blue line mostly fluctuates sharply around zero. This suggests a volatile environment in which short term transfers and large-player activity are influential, rather than a steady one directional flow.
A single day of positive netflow is usually not a reliable sell signal. These transfers may also relate to staking, collateral, arbitrage, or internal institutional wallet arrangements. For the signal to strengthen, several consecutive days of high positive netflow would be needed.
Meanwhile, new depositors stand at 259, up roughly 18.8% during the day. When read alongside netflow: New depositor data occasionally shows extreme spikes, but these do not form a lasting upward trend. The current level of 259 is low compared with its historical sharp peaks. Therefore, it would not be accurate to conclude that a broad market wide wave of selling is underway.
New supply is approximately 2,922 ETH and has remained almost unchanged. The flat trend suggests there has been no sudden expansion in newly created ETH supply.
This alone is not a bullish signal, but it indicates that there is no additional structural supply shock driving selling. In particular, if exchange netflow turns negative over time, the combination of stable supply and withdrawals from exchanges could become supportive for price.
In my view, these data points call for caution in the short term. ETH may face selling pressure during upside attempts or move sideways to lower. However, since the number of new depositors remains low, this chart alone does not support a strong bearish outlook.
Written by PelinayPA

With Bitcoin priced at $79,684 and a +1.59% (24h) gain, the market breathes "Greed" with the Fear And Greed Index registering 66 points. Visually, the price deforms the upper Bollinger Band (1h) and activates the emotional trigger of FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out). Retail, driven by this sentiment, moves to aggression: the TBSR at 1.12 on the daily timeframe proves that the masses are buying at market with leverage and paying a toll (positive Funding) to bet on the continuation of the uptrend.
INSTITUTIONAL DIVERGENCE (The Slaughterhouse)
Smart money does not trade on emotion, it trades on liquidity. While retail buys the top, the data reveals the other side of the coin:
Hollow Rally: The negative Coinbase Premium signals that US institutional funds have turned off the tap. There is no real Spot capital driving this movement.
SILENT DISTRIBUTION
The Exchange Whale Ratio (EWR) on the hourly timeframe is at the alert level (0.93) and indicates that whales have sent heavy ammunition to the exchanges.
THE VERDICT
Retail's Greed sentiment (66) is being surgically used as exit liquidity. Whales and algorithms needed this euphoria to offload their lots, distributing coins onto the heads of late buyers. With Price Momentum already exhausted at level 20 and the FEI Score locked in a zone of absolute noise (99.53%), the stage is set for a Long Squeeze — a sharp correction meant only to liquidate those who bought the top.
Written by GugaOnChain

• Historical benchmark: Bitcoin’s median return during the first nine days of September is –2.64%, based on 2013–2025 data.
• September 2026: BTC opened at $78,553 and now trades near $79,255, up 0.89%.
• Relative performance: Bitcoin is running 3.53 percentage points ahead of its historical median.
Bitcoin has started September more positively than usual while remaining approximately 36% above its June 30 low.
A golden cross also formed on September 8. Its timing is notable, but it is a lagging price signal, not confirmation of the seasonal outperformance.
The next test is September 15–21, historically the month’s weakest window, with an average decline of 2.19%. It also overlaps with the Fed’s September 15–16 meeting, creating an additional, but unpredictable, source of volatility.
This does not tell us where Bitcoin goes next. It simply shows that 2026 is currently outperforming September’s historical pattern, with its most challenging window potentially still ahead.
Written by Andrew Kamsky

XRP is trading near $1.41 on September 9, roughly 35% above its July 28 level, while the Whale vs Retail Spread among traders on Binance remains close to its late-July level, rising from 35.6% to 36.3%.
Binance’s Whale vs Retail Spread 7-day moving average stands at 36.3%, compared with 35.6% on July 28 — an increase of just 0.7 percentage points.
The All-CEX measure has moved much more sharply, climbing from 33% to 45.8%, a gain of 12.8 percentage points.
The relative gap between the two readings has also reversed significantly.
On July 28, Binance stood 2.6 percentage points above the All-CEX reading.
By September 9, the relationship had flipped, with All CEX standing 9.5 percentage points above Binance.
That represents a 12.1-percentage-point reversal in the relative gap in just over six weeks.
The Whale vs Retail Spread compares the relative weight of whale-sized and retail-sized XRP exchange outflows.
A higher reading reflects a wider gap between large and smaller transfers, but the metric alone does not determine whether whales are buying, selling, or accumulating XRP.
The key divergence is therefore clear: XRP is about 35% more expensive than it was on July 28, while Binance’s whale-retail spread is almost unchanged.
At the same time, the broader All-CEX spread has expanded by nearly 39%.
This suggests that the structure of XRP exchange outflows has changed materially across the broader market even as Binance has returned to almost the same whale-retail spread seen in late July.
Written by Amr Taha

Periods in which even mid- to long-term investors keep selling Bitcoin at a loss have, more often than not, turned out to be good opportunities.
Those are precisely the stretches when SOPR dropped below 1.
And in most cases, market participants' interest hits rock bottom at the same time.
Long-term holders selling at a loss, with the public paying no attention — an opportunity like this comes around only once every few years.
What's more, even as this window is passing, Bitcoin still looks cheap.
Written by Crypto Dan

Bitcoin closed at $78,450 on September 8, following its recovery from around $60,000 earlier in the summer. Large deposits to spot exchanges, however, have not shown a comparable surge.
CryptoQuant’s daily top-10 spot-exchange inflows reached 5,442 BTC on September 8. Although this was 4.4 times the previous day’s level, it was only 5.1% above the preceding 30-day average. The seven-day average stood at 4,678 BTC—below several peaks seen earlier this year.
The broader chart suggests that the latest price recovery has not coincided with unusually elevated large-deposit activity. This provides limited evidence of a sustained increase in potential selling pressure from large transfers.

The XRP Binance Scarcity Index indicates a significant decrease in the scarcity of XRP on the Binance platform in recent weeks. After reaching highs of nearly 0.9 in July, the index has been on a continuous downward trend, falling to around -0.29, its lowest level since August 2025.
This decline reflects a decrease in XRP scarcity on Binance compared with previous periods, potentially indicating improved liquidity or an increase in the amount of XRP available for trading on the platform. This follows a period of notable increases in the index, which at the time indicated a decline in the available supply of XRP on Binance.
In contrast, the price of XRP has moved somewhat differently. After falling to near $1.00, it has rebounded in recent days to around $1.40, despite the Scarcity Index continuing to decline into negative territory.
This divergence suggests that the current price recovery is not primarily related to a decrease in the available XRP supply on Binance, but may instead be driven by other factors, such as stronger demand or increased trading activity. The coming period will be important to monitor to determine whether the Scarcity Index begins to recover alongside a continued rise in price or continues to decline, which could indicate that XRP supply remains relatively abundant on the platform.
Written by Arab Chain