灯塔说

I bought too much gold
$XAU

A few thoughts to share:
The sell-off a couple of days ago was attributed to several macro factors, but those factors had been deteriorating for quite some time. In particular, long-term U.S. Treasury yields kept making new highs, while crypto and U.S. stock indices also continued to hit new highs during that period.
This suggests that market pressure is coming not just from interest rates, but also from earnings expectations, positioning risk, and deleveraging.
The minutes from the meeting the day before yesterday also made clear that there will be another rate hike this year. Oil prices rebounded somewhat yesterday, possibly because the risks in the Middle East remain unresolved and the U.S. and Iran are still trying to find common ground. This suggests that with oil prices high, it will be difficult for markets to tighten much in the short term.

Yesterday’s sell-off flushed some leveraged longs out of the market, and short-term selling also appears to be running out of steam. But this is not a signal to buy the dip: the break below multiple support levels on the 4-hour chart has created a bearish structure. Let’s see how the market tests the lows over the next few days before deciding. In the near term, watch resistance around 83,000, with support below at 80,000.

Crude oil is now in a tug-of-war. I closed my short positions around 88 after opening them near 96, and have been trading the swings since. But there’s no clear direction now: will things escalate, or will there be negotiations? Iran is running out of time, though, and Trump will surely make a move around the midterm elections in November. Trade according to the market’s direction. If there’s still no news of negotiations by the end of the month and prices are below 90, I’ll look to trade a rebound.

As I noted yesterday, gold has reached the previously identified support zone of 4,080–4,060, which should bring a rebound. Today’s rebound came as expected. If macro conditions stabilize, gold’s rebound could continue to at least around 4,300–4,500. Stay positioned for buying on dips; if prices pull back to around 4,150 in the short term, I’ll add to my longs.
$BTC $CL $XAU

Gold reached the previously mentioned support zone around 4065–4080 and made its first rebound.
If it confirms that the decline has stopped,
gold may finally see a rebound.
$XAU

Gold market:

Gold is currently continuing a 4-hour downtrend

This correction could fall to around 4000

For the key support on the 4-hour timeframe, watch the area around 4065–4085

If there is a structural shift on the smaller cycle here,

it would be a good bottom-buying opportunity.

$XAU

The nonfarm payrolls release value deviated seriously from expectations
and is extremely bearish for the U.S. dollar.
Although expectations for further rate hikes continue to be lowered,
being far below expectations instead makes the market worry whether an economic recession is impacting things.
After a modest spike higher, the market consolidates—possibly because the market has already priced in the positive move in advance over the past two days.

If macro factors don’t cause a breakout,
then be careful: a move that keeps trying but doesn’t achieve results.

This evening’s Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP): market expectations are for an increase of 90,000 jobs. I think the published figure to watch is 80,000–100,000.

A Reuters survey expects 90,000, the Dow Jones survey expects 84,000, and this week’s ADP report is also 90,000. Compared with last month’s 162,000, I’m more inclined to believe hiring is cooling, but it’s not yet at the point of a slowdown.

However, a pullback doesn’t necessarily mean good news—markets were already waiting for a pullback.

To add fuel to the rebound for BTC and ETH, even if the result matches expectations, we still need to look at wages: if the hourly wage month-over-month falls to 0.2%, and the unemployment rate stays at 4.1%, I would view this combination more positively.

So, if employment numbers meet expectations, then wages are what may determine tonight’s surprise.

Crude Oil Market:

Trump is using “Figure 1” every day to “numb” the market

Last night, we saw another精彩 “dialogue.” Saudi media reported that Iran has agreed to stop uranium enrichment in exchange for the United States easing sanctions. But this was quickly denied by Iranian officials, and Trump also denied this morning any easing of sanctions against Iran and the release of frozen funds in exchange for Iran taking substantive steps on the nuclear issue.

Yesterday, crude oil prices fell from 96 to 91, and are currently rebounding around 93–94.
I’m holding my crude short positions at 96–95, and it’s almost making me sick.

Now, the U.S. and Iran are in a standoff. The good news is there are no shelling sounds; a third party is still mediating. The bad news is that neither side is willing to back down.

Here’s an experience-based tip: once negotiations actually become effective, don’t miss the crude oil sell-off—at least a 10-point move as a starting point, with targets directly at 83–85. If the gunfire resumes, abandon every single short position.
$CL

Review my trading views:

Last week, I continued updating my bearish stance on crude oil. This was based on expectations of negotiations—after all, it’s been a long time since we last heard the sound of shelling. Since we’re in the negotiation period, crude oil is currently in a choppy downward phase. The current situation is mutual probing, but Iran is more passive. It also keeps its ceasefire and continues talks. Trump, on the other hand, needs an agreement he can account for. As long as no gunfire is heard, the agreement will be continuously improved and revised. Ultimately, it should be reached in October. In this deadlock phase, we can only keep adjusting the entry position upward.

As for BTC, after it reached 87K, I stopped going long and kept trying to short near the top. The reason is that earlier there were consecutive large gaps breaking through, and the liquidations and short squeezes/short-covering (i.e., short liquidations leading to forced liquidations) played a major role in pushing price higher. For a new high breakout, the buy-side momentum needed in the short term is hard to catch up. With the rate-hike expectations approaching October, as of today the probability of a rate hike is 65.9%. We’ll see this week’s U.S. nonfarm payrolls data—whether it will be bullish or bearish for that expectation.

Technically, the 1H and 4H timeframes have entered a somewhat bearish trend, but the larger structure hasn’t broken. This is more like a pullback in an uptrend. For this short, I’m first looking for support around 82K. If that breaks, then we’ll look at the liquidity zone around 80–79K.

Gold: since it broke below 4300 at the beginning of the month, the structure has started to change. At the time, confirmation was needed; after it broke again, that confirmed it. Gold is still in a corrective phase. Gold will rise, but not now. This adjustment hasn’t finished yet. I expect this pullback to come down to the 4085–4065 range to enter funds. Only below 4100 will it be suitable to go long.

【Personal trading viewpoint sharing only; not investment advice】

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$BTC $XAU $CL

The probability of a rate hike has risen to 70.9%.
If this week’s Non-Farm Payrolls data once again shows strong improvement,
then the current pullback expectations ahead of the rate hike will continue.
It’s somewhat similar to the adjustment before the rate hike in September.
$XAU
$CL