colinx's Profile | Binance Square

#CPI数据来袭能否触发9月加息 Tonight (September 11) at 20:30, the U.S. August CPI data is about to be released. This is the final key inflation report before the Fed’s September 15–16 policy meeting.

First, look at Nonfarm Payrolls—“off the charts”: August added 162,000 nonfarm jobs, far above the market expectation of 55,000. The prior figure was revised upward from -23,000 to +21,000, and the unemployment rate held steady at 4.1%. The labor market remains highly resilient, but structurally, nearly two-thirds of the new positions are coming from lower-paid/seasonal areas such as hotels and catering, and local government education. There is some element of “inflation” in the numbers.

On inflation, pressure is building: August PPI rose 5.4% year over year, exceeding expectations. U.S. crude oil prices have already broken above $100 per barrel, and the situation in the Middle East continues to push up energy costs. The market expects August headline CPI to stay at 3.4% year over year, while core CPI is expected to ease slightly to 2.4%.

Rate-hike odds have surged: CME FedWatch shows the probability of a 25-basis-point hike in September has risen to 71.3%, up from around 60% a week ago. Even more hawkish Bank of America is betting on as many as three consecutive hikes before year-end.

My view: the upside rebound in Nonfarm Payrolls largely wipes out the narrative that “weakening labor forces the Fed to stay on hold.” Meanwhile, oil prices breaking above $100 and PPI coming in hot are again applying pressure on the inflation side. If tonight’s CPI prints headline year over year ≥ 3.4% and the core month over month does not show a clear cooling, a September rate hike is almost a sure thing. But if core CPI month over month is clearly below 0.2%, the Fed still has reason to observe once more. Personally, I lean toward a higher likelihood of a rate hike because Fed Chair Waller has repeatedly emphasized that PCE is the official benchmark. Yet current overall PCE is still as high as 3.7%, far from the target.

Tonight’s CPI will be “hawk” or “dove”—we’ll know at 20:30. 🔥

#CPI数据来袭能否触发9月加息 #美联储

colinx

lucic

光明社区-亮总

[Ended] 🎙️ Illuminate the path ahead with light, and guide everyone with the right path.

9.2k listens

colinx

When the AI “long narrative” collides with the “near-term hard constraint” of interest rates, in your view, what ultimately carries the deciding weight for the direction of the market—AMD’s earnings guidance, or changes in the Fed’s dot plot?

币安Binance华语

[Binance AMA] From AMD to Nonfarm: A Positive Collision Between AI Growth and Interest Rate Expectations 💥

Tonight at 8 PM (UTC+8) on #币安广场 , let’s chat about it!
🎙️ Hosts: Rizi-chan
🧑‍🏫 Special Guests: Captain Kent, WiseInvest

🧧 One-click like + triple combo, and leave your questions in the comments—we’ll pick 5 people to each receive 30U

AMDB+1.53%

colinx

Live Giveaway

币安Binance华语

[Replay] 🎙️ From AMD to Nonfarm: A Positive Clash Between AI Growth and Rate Expectations

01 h 06 m 10 s · 2.2k listens

colinx

Trending Topics