蔡大哥投资日记

September 18, 2026.
In mid-September, it’s about the same as the previous bear market.
Prices aren’t the absolute lowest point, but they are all very close to the historical bottom, with at most 20 or 30 points of downside left.
I’ve figured it out—buy and hold for 24 to 36 months.
Taking on near-term volatility losses of 20 to 30 points in order to gain future returns of 200%~500% on BNB and OKB.
If you can’t think it through, chasing the lowest point may turn a small loss into a big one.
If time could be turned back to the 2022 bear market, I believe many people wouldn’t have worried about whether Bitcoin was $16,000 or $20,000.
And you won’t agonize over whether OKB is $10 or $20, because from a long-term cycle perspective, it’s all at the bottom.

2026-01-14.
The tutorial on how to apply for a Hong Kong bank card published last month is still not fully understood by many people. Today, I'll describe the detailed guide.
Zhong'an Bank in Hong Kong can be applied for with just a Hong Kong-Macao Pass, ID card, and entry/exit records, as long as you are physically in Hong Kong.
1. Download the Zhong'an Bank APP in advance.
2. After entering Hong Kong, click on online account opening.
3. Take photos of both sides of your Hong Kong-Macao Pass.
4. Take photos of both sides of your mainland China ID card.
5. Prepare a mainland China bank card.
6. Fill in your residential address. (An address in mainland China is acceptable.)
7. Open a Hong Kong and US stock investor account.

September 30, 2026.
The overall market has pulled back.
I hold 6 layers of positions, with BNB and OKB each allocated 3 portions. The average entry price for my BNB position is 710, and the average entry price for my OKB position is 110 USD.
For this pullback, I will add some more positions at that time.
But in my mind, I have two allocation plans:
Option 1: BNB/OKB — configure in a 4:4 ratio.
Option 2: BNB/OKB/GT — configure in a 3:3:2 ratio.
At the current stage, there’s no rush to buy.
I already have 60% of my positions. I can accept it regardless of whether it goes up or down.
Wait until the end of October. If BNB and OKB only experience a small pullback, then consider a 3:3:2 allocation of BNB/OKB/GT.
If there’s an opportunity for a big pullback, then allocate BNB/OKB in a 4:4 ratio.

September 29, 2026.
For this market cycle, if BNB and OKB don’t rise much, the pullback won’t be very deep either—you can hold steady and wait for the next wave.
But copycats are different.
Even if this cycle doesn’t rise much, because there’s no value backing it, it will still drop very sharply—fall back to the original point or even break to new lows.
It’s basically a 20%~30% pullback in BNB and OKB.
Most copycats will drop by 50%~70%.
Don’t even talk about breaking the historical previous high in the future.
Even this year’s peak, I’m afraid, will be hard to reach.
The most important thing in investing is risk control. Only after that should you talk about returns—especially when dealing with copycats whose price can drop without limits.
What you should learn first is to keep your distance.

September 28, 2026.
Current BNB price is $774, with the moving average line at 748. The price is 3% above the moving average line. The price has returned to the moving average line from an extremely low level.
Current OKB price is $121, with the moving average line at 102. The price is 18% above the moving average line. At the end of the bear market and the beginning of the bull market, the first batch returns to the moving average line.
No matter BNB or OKB.
If the pricing is 30 or 50 points above the moving average line, I absolutely cannot intervene—I’ll only act when the price is extremely higher than the moving average line.
If the price is 100% above the moving average line or higher, it’s short-term overbought.
Only then would I reduce my position in batches.
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(09/28, 26) Big Brother Cai’s daily insight:

September 27, 2026.
Our investment goal is to buy or hold value coins whose current prices are close to the 2026 low.
1. Avoid holding scam coins.
2. Avoid holding coins with excessive gains within one year.
Allocating a structural position with limited downside potential and high upside potential is the foundation for outperforming the market over the long term.
Regularly review your portfolio.
Hold a larger position in value coins whose prices are closer to the 2026 low, and reduce positions in coins whose year-to-date gains have been too high (several-fold).
Also avoid holding scam coins.
Only then can you avoid the potential risk of high drawdowns in your account.

September 26, 2026.
Coins that are resilient in a bear market often perform strongly in a bull market.
For example, in the 2018 bear market, BNB was more resilient than the overall market, and then delivered an outstanding performance in the 2019 bull market.
For example, in the 2022 bear market, OKB managed to move through the bear cycle, and then showed astonishing performance again in early 2023.
In the 2026 bear market, each coin’s resilience test:
BNB, has not fallen below the 2025 low of $500.
OKB, has not fallen below the 2025 low of $38.
Bitcoin: breaks below the 2025 low of $74,508, and the price returns to the 2024 support.
ETH, continuously breaks below the 2-year support, and returns to the 2023 support.
LTC, continuously breaks below the 5-year support, and returns to the 20-year support.

September 25, 2026.
The first priority in investing is risk control; only then do we talk about returns.
Right now, I hold BNB and OKB in equal amounts: 3:3. BNB’s average entry price is $710, and OKB’s average entry price is $112.
Margin of safety:
Is your average position price close to the previous low by dozens of points? Is it an altcoin? This determines the downside room in the account.
OKB’s lowest point in 2026: $65.
BNB’s lowest point in 2026: $537.
With every pullback, the support for value coins will be gradually raised.
The closer the buy price is to the previous low, the lower the downside room during a pullback.
Yearly moving average fluctuations:
When the pullback on the previous leg deviates: when both BNB and OKB prices fall below the yearly moving average by 30 percentage points, the price starts to correct and move back toward the yearly moving average.

September 24, 2026.
Right now, my BNB and OKB are both at 30% allocation.
6/10 position. No matter whether it rises or falls in the short term, I’m not worried. If there’s a pullback, I DCA in; if there’s no pullback, the 6/10 allocation is still enough.
BNB is my left arm, and OKB is my right arm.
If it’s rising normally, I just hold and don’t move. Only if one coin’s short-term increase gets excessive do I adjust—when the allocation is too high, then I take action to rebalance.
In investing, what you play is the art of balance.
Just like the ruler’s tactics—let checks and balances operate among the officials.
Letting one coin, one contract, and monopolizing all the positions means a single-coin’s dominance controls your emotions.

September 23, 2026.
The market is rising really fast; my original plan was to fully invest by mid-November.
Plans can’t keep up with changes, so I set up a DCA with 60% of my position. Still, BNB and OKB have risen this much, and people need to learn to stop at the right point.
Now my average holding price is $710 for BNB and $112 for OKB.
The more the price rises, the greater the room for the next pullback.
Although the future looks promising for OKB to rise to 200, 300, or even higher.
To ensure that in the next pullback I get hurt less—or not at all—I can’t add to my position without restraint, and I definitely can’t buy junk coins.
After all, the market is up and down.
No matter how much altcoins pump, they will eventually fall back to their original levels.

September 22, 2026.
I allocate to BNB and OKB—not just for returns.
More important is resilience during downturns. In a bull market, there will be multiple pullbacks, and coins without strong underlying support will drop very deeply.
The next Bitcoin pullback will be 20%~30%.
If the gains of BNB and OKB haven't been excessive, the pullback should be about the same as Bitcoin's—after all, they’re the most profitable companies.
BNB and OKB drop 20%~30% along with the broader market (BTC).
Most altcoins have to drop by 50%~70%.
It falls back to its original level, and even breaks to new lows.
Buying altcoins is like enjoying yourself for a while. But in the long run it will be extremely painful; investing for years will basically be a lost cause.

September 21, 2026.
Auto-invest every Monday; my current position has been increased to 60%.
BNB average price is $710, and OKB average price is $112.
As long as BN and OKX operate steadily, and the price breaks the previous all-time high, it’s only a matter of time—that’s a high-probability return.
In real-world trading, HYPE and UNI don’t have much volume.
Yet its market cap is already higher than first-tier platform OKX—this means it was anticipating that users and trading volume would eventually surpass OKX.
Once reality doesn’t meet expectations, the drop will be huge.
Gradually returning to a position lower than that of the OKX company.
I don’t want to pay for someone else’s dreams and expectations—and the expectations have already been inflated too much, so I don’t plan to touch HYPE or UNI.

September 20, 2026.
BNB and OKB; this rally isn’t very strong.
Many altcoins outperform them in the short term, but when you stretch the timeframe, most altcoins will fall back to their original levels or break below the lows.
In investing, the most important issue is choosing the right coins.
If you choose right, it will lift over the long term—after two years you could make 200% returns.
If you choose wrong, it’ll be a big rise and a big drop—after two years you might still be at a loss.
Slow is fast.
Steady progress matters more than moving fast.
If you’re going to buy, buy coins that are slightly stronger than the overall market—ones that are subtle: subtly and slightly stronger over the long term, but not very obvious; outperform the market with a tiny edge over time.
Too strong, too much attention from the market—easy to reach the extreme and then reverse.

September 19, 2026.
People have different levels of vision and mindset.
In the last bull market, I bought OKB at around $40. Many people were shouting, asking why I didn’t buy at $30?
I sold OKB at a $200 average buy price.
Many people mocked me, asking why I didn’t sell for $250.
In the last bull market, I fully sold my BNB at around the $1,170 mark. Many people mocked me—asking why I didn’t sell for over $1,300?
This cycle.
Last month, I started buying BNB and OKB, and I planned to keep doing dollar-cost averaging until the end of the year. Many people mocked me—asking why I didn’t buy in the first two months.
Laugh, laugh—if you can mock me now, then by all means do it.
After 12 to 24 months, you won’t be laughing anymore.

September 17, 2026.
Many people in the group have started rushing in.
My goal this year is also just one: to DCA into BNB and OKB, and hold a full position by the end of the year.
My goal this year is only one thing.
“Buy, buy, keep buying.”
This year, there has been no selling—only buying.
The buying period continues until the end of the year.
Only after the price starts up from the lowest point and spirals upward for 24 to 36 months will we consider exiting the large position.
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(09/17, 26) Big Brother Cai’s Daily Insight:
When you look at the market from a long-term cycle perspective, you’ll gain a god’s-eye view.

September 16, 2026.
In the last bull market cycle, there were no leaders in that sector breaking to new highs. I basically won’t touch it again.
For example:
The Ddfi sector.
low-quality coin sector
The metaverse sector.
The sector I’m currently building is the platform token sector.
1.BNB.
2.COIN
3.OKB
4.GT.
5.BGB
Exchanges are genuinely profitable businesses. As long as the platform continues to remain profitable, breaking through the historical high is not difficult.
The sector I’m paying attention to.
The privacy coin sector.
The public chain sector.
The decentralized platform token sector.
Privacy coin leader, decentralized platform token leader. Personally, I think the current price’s margin of safety is too low, so I won’t buy for now.