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Today’s Key Economic Events
▶ Sept. 10 (Thu.): △ Germany August consumer price index (CPI, 3 p.m.) △ European Central Bank (ECB) interest-rate decision (9:15 p.m.) △ US August producer price index (PPI, 9:30 p.m.) △ US initial jobless claims (9:30 p.m.) △ ECB press conference (9:45 p.m.) △ US August existing home sales (11 p.m.)
Today’s Key Cryptocurrency Events
▶ Sept. 10 (Thu.): △ None

International oil prices rose again after Iran warned it would step up its offensive if U.S. attacks continue, fueling concern over potential disruptions to energy supplies through the Strait of Hormuz.
Bloomberg reported on September 9 that West Texas Intermediate climbed above $97 a barrel. The U.S. benchmark had jumped 3.3% a day earlier, its biggest one-day gain in a week. Brent crude also traded above $101 a barrel, ending above $100 for the first time since July.
A senior Iranian official said Tehran would not retreat in the face of a U.S. maritime blockade and would broaden retaliatory attacks if Washington continues striking Iranian territory. Iran has also indicated it is prepared for a more intense war.
Fighting in the Middle East has intensified again over the past week, bringing an end to a stretch of relative calm. Renewed concern over possible oil supply disruptions has added upward pressure to crude prices.
U.S. President Donald Trump also ruled out a near-term easing in tensions. He said the war is likely to end only after the November midterm elections and that gasoline prices are unlikely to fall meaningfully before then.
The market is closely tracking oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. Before the war, about 20% of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas passed through the waterway.
Some crude is still being exported from the Persian Gulf via the Strait of Hormuz, but ships remain exposed to the risk of continued attacks. Some tankers were also said to be sailing with their Automatic Identification System, or AIS, turned off.

The U.S. Treasury raised the cap on its long-term bond buyback to $6 billion, triple the original plan, but the move fell short of market expectations, sending the 10-year Treasury yield as high as 4.85%.
Bloomberg reported on Sept. 9 that the Treasury set the size of its long-term nominal bond buyback scheduled for Sept. 10 at up to $6 billion. That is three times the previously planned $2 billion.
Treasuries continued to sell off after the announcement. The 10-year yield rose to 4.85% during the session, nearing its highest level since 2023. Concerns about inflation stoked by surging oil prices, expectations for Federal Reserve rate hikes and large fiscal deficits weighed on the market.
Some in the market had expected a larger buyback. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent had publicly said earlier that purchases could exceed $4 billion per operation, fueling expectations of a much bigger expansion.
Steven Zeng, a strategist at Deutsche Bank, said the $6 billion size failed to deliver the "shock and awe" investors had expected. "It's like the Treasury has created a monster it now has to keep feeding," he said.
The Treasury said each of the six remaining scheduled long-term bond buybacks could total at least $4 billion. That matches the level it presented when it first announced the expanded buyback plan on Aug. 19.
Bessent recently stressed that the purpose of the buybacks is not to change the fair level of Treasury yields. Instead, the focus is on easing market volatility, preventing negative sentiment toward the Treasury market from becoming entrenched and improving liquidity.
Evercore ISI said the announcement suggests Bessent is acknowledging limits to the role buybacks can play. The Treasury is unlikely to be able to keep resisting the direction of yields set by the economy's fundamentals.
The Treasury's $39 billion auction of 10-year notes the same day drew a high yield of 4.834%, the highest level since 2007.
Still, the buyback program could be expanded again. The Treasury announced last month's policy to increase long-term bond buybacks separately from its regular quarterly refunding plan, and Bessent has described the effort as a "Treasury twist" aimed at stabilizing long-term yields.
Joseph Furtel, a portfolio manager at Neuberger Berman, said Bessent has been signaling through both words and actions that investors should not press too aggressively on 30-year Treasuries. He added that the buyback size could rise into the tens of billions of dollars and that there is no clear upper limit.

Iran’s central bank has eased foreign-exchange rules to allow the use of cryptocurrencies including Bitcoin for trade settlement, in a move to bypass U.S. economic sanctions, the Financial Times reported on September 9.
The Central Bank of Iran recently relaxed the rules to encourage domestic companies to repatriate earnings generated overseas, the FT said.
The change allows Iranian companies to settle cross-border trade payments in Bitcoin or Tether through domestic cryptocurrency exchanges.
Exporters can also use foreign-currency earnings directly to pay for imports rather than selling them on a government foreign-exchange platform at the official rate. Previously, exporters had to send a large share of their overseas foreign-currency earnings back to Iran and exchange them at the official rate through a government-run platform.
The measure gives companies an option to settle trade payments without going through the traditional finance, or TradFi, system.
The U.S., meanwhile, is stepping up pressure on Iran’s crypto financing networks. In June, the Office of Foreign Assets Control, the U.S. Treasury Department’s sanctions arm, sanctioned four Iranian cryptocurrency exchanges, including Wallex and Nobitex, as part of Operation Economic Fury.
Blockchain analytics firm TRM Labs said in an analysis released in June that $3.84 billion of fund flows occurred over the past seven years between global exchange CoinEx and Iranian entities targeted by U.S. sanctions.

Germany is pushing a plan to levy a 25% tax on gains from cryptocurrency trading.
BlockBeats and other outlets reported on September 9 that a recent working-level draft on crypto taxation prepared by Germany’s Federal Ministry of Finance would classify profits from crypto sales as capital income, similar to stock gains, and apply a flat 25% tax rate regardless of how long the assets were held.
The new tax framework could be introduced as early as 2028. The Finance Ministry projects additional tax revenue of 160 million euros in 2028, rising to 350 million euros by 2031.
If adopted, the revision would mark a shift in Germany’s tax exemption for certain crypto gains. Under the current system, profits earned by individual investors from selling cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin after holding them for more than one year are exempt from tax. Gains from crypto sold within one year are subject to individual income tax rates.
German authorities reportedly view cryptocurrencies as financial assets with high liquidity and a speculative character, making it necessary to apply the same tax treatment used for stock trading gains.
The proposal is still at the Finance Ministry draft stage. Its details could change as it goes through consultations within the government, cabinet approval and parliamentary review.

U.S.-Iran, Saudi-Houthi Clashes
Wall Street Says Oil Could Reach $150 in the Fourth Quarter
International oil prices surged to the brink of $100 a barrel on Sept. 8. The move was driven by mounting concern over supply disruptions after Saudi Arabian energy facilities were attacked by the Iran-aligned Houthi rebels.
Brent crude for November settlement rose 92 cents, or 0.95%, to settle at $97.92 a barrel on London's ICE Futures Europe exchange. On Sept. 9, it traded above $100 intraday for the first time since July 24. West Texas Intermediate for October delivery gained $1.55, or 1.69%, to settle at $93.03 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
If the conflict between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis intensifies, the risk of a shutdown of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait will increase. The waterway handles about 5% of global oil shipments. Global investment banks have raised their fourth-quarter oil price forecasts to as high as $150 a barrel. Kim Fustier, HSBC's lead energy analyst, said fears that crude supply shortages could last longer than expected are now being reflected more fully in prices.
Oil Could Reach $120 if Energy Facilities Are Hit Again
Middle East Escalation Pushes Prices Above $100 Intraday, Though North American Supply May Limit Gains
The Houthi rebels in Yemen, widely believed to be backed by Iran, attacked four cities in southern Saudi Arabia -- Abha, Khamis Mushait, Jazan and Najran -- as well as facilities operated by state oil company Aramco on Sept. 8, using drones and missiles. Parts of the energy facilities caught fire, forcing operations to halt, and 73 people were injured, according to the report.
Since the war with Iran began, Saudi Arabia has moved crude across the Arabian Peninsula by pipeline to its western Red Sea coast for export. After the Houthis struck western energy facilities, concern grew that even the route bypassing the Strait of Hormuz might no longer be safe.
The situation around the Strait of Hormuz has also worsened. U.S. forces attacked a tanker linked to Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps on Sept. 8, and Iran responded with retaliatory military operations targeting U.S. destroyers and bases. Iran also designated a maritime blockade zone in the Strait of Hormuz and warned of attacks on energy facilities and oil tankers.
That has added weight to the view that average oil prices in the fourth quarter will rise well above $100 a barrel. Major investment banks have recently raised their Brent crude forecasts. Bank of America said in a report released on Sept. 8 that Brent could trade at $95 to $120 a barrel through year-end if lower-level clashes that constrain oil supply continue.
Goldman Sachs raised its year-end Brent forecast by $5 from its previous $80 estimate, citing the possibility that shipping disruptions could last into next year. The bank said Brent could reach $120 if attacks by Iran and the Houthi rebels on vessels intensify. David Fyfe, chief economist at Argus, said current prices show supply conditions are extremely tight.
Some in the market, however, believe oil will not rise to $100 to $120 a barrel. They point to smaller-than-feared declines in crude shipments through the Strait of Hormuz and alternative routes, rising output from non-OPEC producers such as the U.S. and Canada, and a structural decline in China's oil demand.
Hwang Jeong-su, New York correspondent / Kim Dong-hyun, reporter hjs@hankyung.com

The Japanese yen has extended its strength into the 153-per-dollar range, but major Wall Street firms are split on how much further it can climb.
Bloomberg reported on Sept. 9 that the yen rose as much as 0.5% intraday against the dollar to 153.25. It had reached its strongest level since mid-February in the previous session.
Expectations for a Bank of Japan rate increase have underpinned the yen's recent advance. The BOJ is said to be considering raising its benchmark rate by 0.25 percentage point this month in response to inflation pressures.
Even so, some market participants say a substantial amount of tightening expectations has already been priced into the exchange rate. That suggests the BOJ would need to deliver a more hawkish signal than markets expect for the yen to strengthen further.
Eric Nelson, a strategist at Wells Fargo, pointed to the BOJ rate path already reflected in markets and said it would be very difficult for the central bank to surpass those expectations. Even if a rate hike goes ahead, the yen's gains may remain limited unless expectations for further tightening increase meaningfully.
JPMorgan highlighted the possibility that yen strength itself could reduce the need for additional BOJ rate increases. Meera Chandan, co-head of global FX strategy at JPMorgan, said Japanese authorities would want to avoid not only excessive yen weakness but also excessive strength. As dollar-yen approaches the low-150s, she said, the hurdle for further declines is likely to rise.
Bank of America took the opposite view. It said the yen could find additional momentum if the BOJ accelerates the pace of rate increases. Alex Cohen, a foreign-exchange strategist at BofA, said faster BOJ rate hikes are a key precondition for further yen strength. If the currency holds near current levels, repatriation of overseas funds by Japanese exporters could also become a fresh source of support.
Manulife Investment Management also sees room for continued yen gains if the BOJ confirms the possibility of additional tightening. The key question, the firm said, is what signal the BOJ sends on the possibility of a second additional rate increase before year-end.
Federal Reserve policy is another variable. Citigroup said next week's Fed rate decision will shape the yen's near-term direction.
Citigroup strategists said the current decline in dollar-yen could continue toward 152. However, if the Fed were to raise rates, they expect it would be difficult for dollar-yen to settle sustainably below 155.

U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds posted net outflows after four trading days.
SoSoValue data showed total net outflows of $46.65 million from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs on Sept. 8. The move reversed a streak of net inflows over the previous four trading sessions.
By product, Grayscale's GBTC led the overall outflows with $65.51 million leaving the fund. Fidelity's FBTC posted net outflows of $17.05 million, while Invesco's BTCO saw $4.68 million exit.
Some products still attracted inflows. Bitwise's BITB recorded the largest net inflow at $14.47 million, while BlackRock's IBIT took in $10.66 million. Ark Invest's ARK drew $8.06 million, and Morgan Stanley's MSBT added $7.41 million. The remaining products recorded no net flows.

Bitcoin recovered after falling below $78,000 intraday, with markets turning their attention to inflation data due before next week's Federal Open Market Committee meeting.
As of 1:56 p.m. in Korea on September 9, Bitcoin was trading at $79,181.02 on Binance's USDT market. It had dropped to as low as $77,670 a day earlier before rebounding as buying emerged. While the token was little changed over the past 24 hours, it has risen nearly 2% over the past week.
Macroeconomic uncertainty is capping Bitcoin's upside. Escalating tensions in the Middle East pushed Brent crude close to $100 a barrel, while gold traded around $4,407 an ounce.
U.S. Treasury yields also remained elevated. The 10-year yield hovered near 4.8%, while the two-year stood above 4.3%. CME FedWatch showed markets pricing in about a 60% chance that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates next week.
Jasper De Maere, an OTC trader at Wintermute, said the market is currently moving more on interest rates than on crypto-specific factors. Volatility could increase later this week as the final macroeconomic data arrive before the Fed's rate decision, he added. In the near term, he identified $75,000 and $82,000 as key levels ahead of the September 15-16 FOMC meeting.
Markets are watching the U.S. producer price index due on September 10 and the consumer price index due on September 11. Core CPI is forecast to slow to 2.4%. The two releases are the last major inflation indicators before the upcoming FOMC meeting.
Institutional flows have remained relatively solid. U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds attracted about $1 billion last week, extending net inflows to a third straight week.
Still, on-chain data point to potential selling pressure. CoinDesk reported that more than 71% of total Bitcoin supply is now in profit. That is up from about 67% in May at a similar price level. The report said profit-taking may increase as Bitcoin approaches the upper end of its recent $77,200-$82,100 range.

Strategy has doubled the buyback limit for its STRC preferred stock to $2 billion from $1 billion in an effort to lift the shares back to their $100 par value.
CryptoSlate reported on Sept. 8 that Strategy’s board expanded the cap on its preferred-share repurchase program, including STRC, to $2 billion. The move secures additional buying capacity after the company had already used more than 80% of the previous authorization.
STRC traded at about $97 to $98 on Sept. 8, roughly 2% below its $100 par value. Sept. 8 was the date Strategy Chairman Michael Saylor had cited for a recovery in STRC’s price, but the shares failed to regain $100.
Strategy has steadily increased the size of its purchases since July to support STRC. From Aug. 31 through Sept. 7, it bought 1.81 million STRC shares for $176.3 million, at an average price of about $97.36 each. Cumulative buybacks have reached about $811.5 million. With only about $188.5 million left under the previous $1 billion limit, the increase raises remaining buyback capacity to about $1.19 billion.
Strategy’s weekly purchases have increased even as STRC moved closer to par. In the first week, the company deployed $25 million at an average price of $86.52. Weekly purchases then rose to $81.2 million, $108.6 million, $132.2 million, $136.4 million and $151.8 million. The latest $176.3 million purchase was the largest since the buyback program began.
As funds were concentrated on STRC buybacks, Bitcoin purchases stopped again. Strategy did not buy additional Bitcoin from Aug. 31 through Sept. 7. It also made no new share sales through its at-the-market, or ATM, program during that period. In the previous week, the company raised $602.8 million by selling MSTR shares, then spent $151.8 million on STRC buybacks and $369.7 million to purchase 4,603 Bitcoin. Bitcoin buying had resumed after about two months, only to halt again a week later.
The $176.3 million used for the latest STRC buyback came entirely from Strategy’s U.S. dollar cash holdings. As of Sept. 7, that cash balance stood at $1.44 billion and could be used for Bitcoin purchases or capital-structure management.
Strategy is focused on restoring STRC to the $100 level because it wants to use the security again as a funding tool. STRC is a perpetual preferred stock designed to keep its market price near its $100 par value by adjusting its dividend rate. Strategy has said it will not issue new STRC shares if they trade below par. STRC must therefore recover stably to $100 before the company can fully resume fundraising through new preferred-share issuance.
As of Sept. 7, Strategy held 845,050 Bitcoin. Its total acquisition cost was $63.73 billion, and its average purchase price was about $75,412 per coin.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said he has a firm grasp of how the Bank of Japan and Japanese policymakers would respond in any market intervention aimed at strengthening the yen, adding that anyone who wants can bet against him.
Bloomberg reported on September 8 that Bessent made the remarks at an event at Southern Methodist University in Texas. Responding to criticism that a Treasury secretary takes on risk by intervening in markets, he said, “The advantage I have is asymmetric information.”
Bessent, a former hedge fund manager, cited the July 31 episode in which the U.S. and Japan jointly bought yen. The Japanese currency strengthened immediately after the intervention, but later surrendered part of those gains as questions emerged about limits on how much money the U.S. Treasury could deploy in foreign-exchange markets.
“I’m the house now,” Bessent said. He added that he has a strong sense of what Japan, the BOJ and Japanese policymakers will do when intervening in the yen. “If you want, you can bet against me.”
The yen has continued to strengthen recently even without any confirmed additional intervention. Expectations for a BOJ rate increase have risen, and the yen’s advance gathered momentum after the dollar-yen exchange rate fell below 155, a level widely seen as key support.
The BOJ is said to be leaning toward raising its benchmark rate by 0.25 percentage point on September 18. It is also leaving open the possibility of accelerating the pace of rate hikes depending on inflation.
Bessent has repeatedly signaled that he prefers Japan to address yen weakness through BOJ rate increases rather than repeated intervention in the foreign-exchange market.
The Japanese government has also said it will maintain coordination with Washington. Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said on September 8 that the two countries’ approach to exchange-rate policy had not changed even after their joint intervention in currency markets and that Tokyo would continue close communication with the U.S. Treasury.
Bessent has recently taken an active approach not only in foreign exchange but also in the bond market. He said the same day that last month’s expansion of long-term U.S. Treasury buybacks was intended to cool excessive heat that had built up in the bond market.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the U.S. Treasury’s surprise decision last month to expand buybacks of long-term Treasuries was meant to calm an excessive rise in yields and return the market to balance.
Bloomberg reported on September 8 that Bessent, speaking at an event in Washington, said his role in expanding Treasury buybacks was to “push the market back into balance.”
He said he does not believe he can change the market’s equilibrium price itself, adding that “there is no perfect equilibrium in the world.” The comments suggest the Treasury is not trying to engineer a specific level for yields, but rather to ease one-sided moves when the market becomes overly stretched.
Bessent also compared recent bond-market moves to a “fever.” Referring to last month’s Treasury selloff, when concerns about U.S. fiscal health spread through the market, he indicated the expanded buybacks were intended to cool that overheating.
The Treasury announced on August 19 that it would at least double the size of buybacks for Treasuries maturing in 10 to 20 years, increasing the amount from $2 billion per operation. Because the move came outside the regular quarterly borrowing plan announcement, markets viewed it as a sign the department had begun responding more aggressively to rising long-term yields.
At the time, the 30-year Treasury yield had climbed to its highest level since 2007, with selling pressure concentrated in longer-dated debt. After the announcement of the expanded buybacks, long-term Treasury prices rose and yields fell.
Bessent’s latest remarks came ahead of the first actual purchase under the expanded buyback program. The Treasury is set to disclose the size of its next buyback targeting 10- to 20-year Treasuries, and the market is focused on how far the amount will exceed the new $4 billion minimum.
Market participants see the size of the first purchase as a gauge of how aggressively the Treasury intends to step into the long-bond market going forward. A larger-than-expected amount could reaffirm the department’s resolve to restrain further increases in long-term yields, while a purchase of about $4 billion could be seen as falling short of market expectations.

The US military said it destroyed five Iranian crude carriers in response to attacks by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, or IRGC, on US Navy ships.
US Central Command said on X on September 8 that it destroyed the five vessels after the IRGC targeted US Navy warships twice with ballistic missiles over the previous two days.
The US warships avoided both missile attacks and continue patrol missions in regional waters, Central Command said.
No US service members were reported injured.

South Korea’s ruling People Power Party is seeking talks with the country’s five largest virtual-asset exchanges on possible changes to the system and a further delay to crypto taxation, which is set to take effect in January next year.
The party is discussing with the industry a plan to hold a seminar on crypto taxation at 2 p.m. on Sept. 21, Dailyan reported on Sept. 8. Floor Leader Jung Jeom-sik, Policy Committee Chair Lim I-ja and secretaries of relevant standing committees are among those whose attendance is being coordinated, along with the heads of the five major won-market exchanges — Dunamu, Bithumb, Coinone, Korbit and Streami — and officials from the Digital Asset eXchange Alliance, or DAXA. The schedule and attendees have not been finalized.
Under the current Income Tax Act, a 20% tax will be imposed from January 2027 on annual income from the transfer or lending of virtual assets that exceeds the basic deduction of 2.5 million won. The effective tax rate, including local income tax, is 22%.
Crypto taxation was originally due to begin in 2022, but the start date was postponed three times — to 2023, 2025 and 2027 — because of the need to build tax infrastructure and strengthen investor-protection rules.
People Power Party lawmakers have also introduced bills to abolish the tax or delay it further. Rep. Song Eon-seok in March proposed an amendment to the Income Tax Act that would remove provisions taxing income from transfers and lending of virtual assets. Rep. Jung Sung-kook proposed delaying implementation by three years to 2030, while Rep. Kim Sang-hoon proposed a two-year delay to 2029.
The party also held a meeting in March with the heads of the five won-market exchanges and DAXA officials to discuss ways to improve the crypto taxation system. The government and the Democratic Party, however, have maintained that taxation should begin next year under current law.

Bitcoin volatility has fallen to historically low levels, with supply held by long-term holders emerging as a key factor behind the recent calm.
Glassnode, an on-chain analytics firm, wrote in a post on X, formerly Twitter, on Sept. 8 that Bitcoin volatility is currently at historically low levels. The firm said elevated long-term holder supply is having a major influence in explaining the subdued volatility.
Glassnode's analysis found that long-term holder, or LTH, supply showed the closest relationship with changes in Bitcoin's realized volatility, with explanatory power of about 19%. Illiquid supply followed at about 12%. By contrast, market capitalization accounted for only about 3%.
The ratio of futures open interest, or OI, to market capitalization and spot trading volume also had less influence on volatility than long-term holder supply, according to the firm.

Japan said it will remain in close contact with the U.S. Treasury over the yen’s recent strength and work to ensure orderly moves in the foreign-exchange market.
Bloomberg reported on September 8 that Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama told a news conference that Tokyo’s position had not changed at all since the joint U.S.-Japan market intervention, citing comments made at an August 3 press conference in Japan and a Washington statement by U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent.
She added that Japan will continue close communication with the U.S. Treasury and seek to ensure orderly movements in the foreign-exchange market.
The yen has strengthened rapidly as expectations grow for another interest-rate increase by the Bank of Japan. In Tokyo foreign-exchange trading on the morning of September 8, the dollar traded at about 153.58 yen. That marked a sharp rise in the Japanese currency from around 160 yen a dollar just a week earlier. More recently, the yen has continued to strengthen past the 155-per-dollar level even without additional market intervention by authorities.
Economic data released that day also reinforced expectations for a BOJ rate hike. Japan’s second-quarter gross domestic product growth was revised up to an annualized 1.4%, while wage growth in July reached its highest level in about 30 years.
About a month earlier, Japan injected 15.4 trillion yen, or about $101 billion, into the foreign-exchange market to support the yen. The U.S. also joined the effort at the time for the first time in 28 years. Even after the intervention, the dollar-yen rate stayed near 160 for a time, but the yen’s rally has accelerated this month as bearish bets against the currency were rapidly unwound.

U.S. spot Bitcoin and Ether exchange-traded funds drew a combined $1.1 billion in net inflows last week, with nearly 80% of the total concentrated in a single day.
CoinMarketCap data released on Sept. 8 showed spot Bitcoin ETFs posted net inflows of $968.9 million from Aug. 31 to Sept. 4, while spot Ether ETFs took in $130.3 million. Combined net inflows for the two assets totaled $1.1 billion, down 32.8% from the previous week.
On Sept. 3 alone, the funds attracted $863.2 million, accounting for 78.5% of the week's total net inflows. That marked the largest combined daily net inflow for spot Bitcoin and Ether ETFs since Jan. 14.
The flow of funds was heavily skewed toward Bitcoin. Weekly net inflows into spot Ether ETFs plunged 82.3% from the previous week, and Ether's share of total ETF inflows fell to 11.9% from 45.0%.
Prices rose even as ETF inflows slowed. Based on CoinMarketCap opening prices, Bitcoin gained 2.77% during the period and Ether climbed 2.60%. Both assets had declined in the prior week.
Leverage in the Bitcoin derivatives market showed only limited expansion. In the week through Sept. 6, Bitcoin open interest fell 0.6% to $53.15 billion, while the funding rate slipped to 0.50 basis point from 0.54 basis point.
By contrast, buying demand in the spot market improved. Over the three trading days through Sept. 4, net taker flow totaled $294 million, indicating a buying bias. That compared with the previous week, when buying and selling pressure was nearly balanced, suggesting spot demand strengthened.

Global financial markets could see volatility rise sharply through year-end as the risk of additional rate hikes in major economies combines with fiscal strains and higher oil prices driven by the war in the Middle East.
Bloomberg reported on September 7 that U.S. investors were returning from the Labor Day holiday as bond and currency markets prepared for a string of monetary policy decisions from the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan. Market volatility remained unusually subdued last month despite reports of government intervention to defend the yen and stabilize U.S. Treasury yields. That backdrop could shift from September as major policy events crowd the calendar.
The ECB is expected to raise its benchmark rate by 25 basis points at its next policy meeting. The Fed is scheduled to announce its rate decision on September 16, with a BOJ meeting to follow. Markets are also weighing the possibility that the BOJ could raise rates by 25 basis points this month because of inflation risks. If the Fed delivers a relatively dovish signal, yen strength could accelerate and the unwind of yen carry trades could gather pace. The market is estimated to still hold about $103 billion in bets on yen weakness.
Fiscal problems in major economies are also adding to bond-market jitters. In the U.K., rising gilt yields and high inflation are rapidly eroding the government's fiscal room. France is also under pressure, with a budget deficit above 5% of gross domestic product and political uncertainty weighing on sentiment. In the U.S., national debt has reached $40 trillion, and uncertainty over fiscal policy could widen ahead of the November midterm elections.
Large-scale corporate fundraising is also poised to weigh on bond markets. In the U.S., borrowing for artificial intelligence infrastructure investment has surged, and September issuance of investment-grade corporate bonds is forecast at about $215 billion. Some Wall Street estimates put the total as high as $250 billion. If corporate bond issuance rises alongside Treasury supply, competition for market liquidity could intensify.
Geopolitical risks remain another variable. Brent crude has climbed close to $100 a barrel as tensions between the U.S. and Iran intensify, fueling concern that global inflation could reaccelerate. Tariff friction between the U.S. and Canada, along with renewed U.S.-China trade tensions, could further increase volatility across stocks, bonds and currencies.
Carol Lye, a portfolio manager at Brandywine Global Investment Management, said volatility across asset markets could rise and risk assets could weaken if an oil shock coincides with Fed and BOJ tightening, political uncertainty and AI-related credit concerns.

BOJ Rate-Hike Cycle Gains Momentum
Yen Could Strengthen Further if Middle East Tensions Ease
The yen surged into the 153-per-dollar range, reaching its strongest level in about six months, as expectations grew that U.S. and Japanese monetary authorities could take concrete steps, including joint intervention, to curb yen weakness. Prospects for faster Bank of Japan rate hikes also supported the currency. The yen's advance is gathering momentum as not only hedge funds but also medium- to long-term investors unwind short-yen positions.
In Tokyo foreign-exchange trading on Sept. 8, the yen at one point strengthened into the 153-per-dollar range. That marked its strongest level since mid-February, about six months ago. The dollar had traded in the 155.50-yen range at 5 p.m. the previous day, but continued yen buying pushed it through 154 and then into 153.
The yen also broke through 155 per dollar, a psychological threshold it had failed to surpass even during yen-buying intervention by the Japanese government and the Bank of Japan in late April through May and again in July. In the market, some see the move as more than short-term speculators covering positions, signaling a broader turn in the underlying trend of selling the yen.
A Mitsubishi UFJ official said momentum is shifting, with not only hedge funds but also investors with a medium- to long-term horizon unwinding positions that involved selling the yen and buying the dollar.
BOJ Rate-Hike Bets Gather Pace
The yen's strength is being driven in part by expectations for policy changes by U.S. and Japanese monetary authorities. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent recently reiterated his strong support for Japan taking firm market and financial policy measures to address what he described as the yen's sharp undervaluation. Markets are increasingly alert to the possibility that the two countries could take specific action, including joint foreign-exchange intervention, to correct yen weakness.
Expectations for additional BOJ rate hikes are also supporting yen buying. Markets have almost fully priced in a 0.25 percentage-point increase at the central bank's monetary policy meeting on Sept. 17-18. Views are also spreading that the BOJ could continue raising rates roughly once every three months, or that the terminal policy rate could end up higher than previously expected.
Expectations that tensions in the Middle East will ease also weighed on the dollar. Iran's Foreign Ministry said on Sept. 7 that talks with Oman over a temporary shipping route through the Strait of Hormuz were in their final stage and that an agreement could be reached within days. That has reduced demand for the dollar as a haven during the Middle East crisis.
With short-yen positions already heavily built up, traders see policy expectations and easing Middle East tensions combining to accelerate the currency's rise. Still, the next move in the exchange rate will depend on the actual pace of BOJ rate hikes, the response from U.S. and Japanese authorities, and changes in the Middle East situation.
Choi Man-su, Tokyo correspondent, Korea Economic Daily bebop@hankyung.com