心如大魔王
37 Posts
心如大魔王
“BTC周期观察员” “熊市猎人”
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527 Followers
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Don’t panic when you miss the move— the final bottom-picking entry is right here.
The current market is stuck; there are three possible ways it could play out in the future.
1. If 81k is the stage top of this round’s rally, then a pullback to around 68k is certain. But it’s not recommended to short here. The reason is that the market sentiment is really weird—nobody dares to go long. Most people are shorting. You can check the funding rates and the liquidation chart yourself.
2. After a period of range-bound consolidation at the high, the price pushes again toward around 84k to form the next stage top. Then it will inevitably pull back to around 70k. If that happens, can you go long at the current price and hold until 84k? Absolutely not. Because you can’t possibly be 100% sure that 81k is not the stage top. Once 81k tops and then crashes, you won’t be able to stomach it.
3. If the current price continues to surge violently to 88k, and if this is the path it takes, then most likely the future will drop to around 74k, where it will pick you up. But even now, you still shouldn’t go long. The reason is the same as above.
These three paths for BTC will definitely pick one in the future. So where should you place your long orders? Only after the future stage top is confirmed can you know the pullback level. Friends who already hold longs might ask, “Why do I get picked up on the pullback instead?” All I can say is: even in a bull market’s big breakout surge, it’s never a straight-line rally. And besides, this bull run started at least two months early. Don’t carry any bias—ask yourself honestly: starting from today, do you really believe it will surge in a straight line until the BTC halving in 2028? Or do you really believe it will run up to 100k within these two months? Don’t forget: the previous bull top was only 12.6.
The best long entry prices after a big drop are 68k—70k—74k. You can’t participate at the current price; the reasons have already been explained. If you choose the first path, then wait to go long at 68k—not force yourself to take part in longs/shorts at the current price.
There is only one short entry: 88k. The reason is still that you can’t be 100% sure about the top at 81k or 84k. Going long must wait for the big drop—not now.
The bull market is already here. Don’t hold any fantasies about breaking down below 57k. 57k is a price BTC will never go back to again, just like 1.5 back then. BTC’s cycle is unbreakable. History may not repeat exactly, but it will be strikingly similar.
#BTC走势分析
The current market is stuck; there are three possible ways it could play out in the future.
1. If 81k is the stage top of this round’s rally, then a pullback to around 68k is certain. But it’s not recommended to short here. The reason is that the market sentiment is really weird—nobody dares to go long. Most people are shorting. You can check the funding rates and the liquidation chart yourself.
2. After a period of range-bound consolidation at the high, the price pushes again toward around 84k to form the next stage top. Then it will inevitably pull back to around 70k. If that happens, can you go long at the current price and hold until 84k? Absolutely not. Because you can’t possibly be 100% sure that 81k is not the stage top. Once 81k tops and then crashes, you won’t be able to stomach it.
3. If the current price continues to surge violently to 88k, and if this is the path it takes, then most likely the future will drop to around 74k, where it will pick you up. But even now, you still shouldn’t go long. The reason is the same as above.
These three paths for BTC will definitely pick one in the future. So where should you place your long orders? Only after the future stage top is confirmed can you know the pullback level. Friends who already hold longs might ask, “Why do I get picked up on the pullback instead?” All I can say is: even in a bull market’s big breakout surge, it’s never a straight-line rally. And besides, this bull run started at least two months early. Don’t carry any bias—ask yourself honestly: starting from today, do you really believe it will surge in a straight line until the BTC halving in 2028? Or do you really believe it will run up to 100k within these two months? Don’t forget: the previous bull top was only 12.6.
The best long entry prices after a big drop are 68k—70k—74k. You can’t participate at the current price; the reasons have already been explained. If you choose the first path, then wait to go long at 68k—not force yourself to take part in longs/shorts at the current price.
There is only one short entry: 88k. The reason is still that you can’t be 100% sure about the top at 81k or 84k. Going long must wait for the big drop—not now.
The bull market is already here. Don’t hold any fantasies about breaking down below 57k. 57k is a price BTC will never go back to again, just like 1.5 back then. BTC’s cycle is unbreakable. History may not repeat exactly, but it will be strikingly similar.
#BTC走势分析
In August 2026, a ridiculously rough—almost unbearable—“cow” anime movie suddenly went viral. Amid everyone’s jokes, Bitcoin actually really entered a brand-new bull run. Remember, the start of the previous bull run was also accompanied by a similar kind of news: a false report that an ETF had been approved caused a direct surge of 5,000 points.
57750 has become history as the bottom. In the early stage of the bull market, the first target is 84,000, the second target is 92,000, and the final destination of the big bull market is 180,000!
The endpoint of this pump is 88,000–92,000—not 84,000!
After that, operations: buy the dip / go long. The aggressive camp can open longs directly at the current price!
If the price is not below 88,000, you absolutely must not short!
After reaching the endpoint of this pump, the subsequent drop will land at the bottom point of this bull market cycle—the absolute last low, the final “get on board” point. By then, it won’t only be the big BTC’s get-on-board point, it will also be the last chance for altcoins to get on board!
An ultra-low-probability event imagined by those who miss out: if we top out here and then pull back toward 67,000. If that happens, directly max out leverage and go long on BTC!
$BTC
57750 has become history as the bottom. In the early stage of the bull market, the first target is 84,000, the second target is 92,000, and the final destination of the big bull market is 180,000!
The endpoint of this pump is 88,000–92,000—not 84,000!
After that, operations: buy the dip / go long. The aggressive camp can open longs directly at the current price!
If the price is not below 88,000, you absolutely must not short!
After reaching the endpoint of this pump, the subsequent drop will land at the bottom point of this bull market cycle—the absolute last low, the final “get on board” point. By then, it won’t only be the big BTC’s get-on-board point, it will also be the last chance for altcoins to get on board!
An ultra-low-probability event imagined by those who miss out: if we top out here and then pull back toward 67,000. If that happens, directly max out leverage and go long on BTC!
$BTC
Can a single bullish candle change the narrative? Don’t rush to make a conclusion yet
This bullish candle today isn’t that big, but the structure has changed. The 4-hour chart has now closed above for three consecutive K-lines, and the third one is still sitting on top. The current price is 63,700, and the daily mid-band at 63,800 is right overhead.
There are three things on the news front:
First, expectations for a Fed rate hike are cooling. The probability of a September hike has dropped from 47% a month ago to around 30%.
Second, the latest disclosed 13F filings show that JPMorgan increased its holdings of Bitcoin ETFs by 25.5%, while Morgan Stanley increased by 23%.
Third, ETF funds have begun to flow back. Last week, the total net inflow into Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs amounted to $1.1 billion.
After the drop from 64,500 on the night of 8.11, the price has been consolidating in the 63.0–64.0 range. The highs have been getting lower, the lows too, and the overall center of gravity has been shifting downward.
But after 8.14 reached 62,666, things changed. 62,666 was lower than the previous low, yet the price only paused there for one K-line. The next candle immediately reclaimed it. Then it went sideways for three days without dropping. Today, it started pushing upward with increased volume.
This is a classic stop-hunt/false breakdown structure: it breaks below the prior low to scare out the stop-loss orders, then quickly snaps back.
If the daily close holds above 63,800, then the target for this rebound is 65,200—the upper daily band. If 63,800 can’t be held, then it’ll remain range-bound: a drift back toward 63,000 to grind.
#比特币走势 $BTC
This bullish candle today isn’t that big, but the structure has changed. The 4-hour chart has now closed above for three consecutive K-lines, and the third one is still sitting on top. The current price is 63,700, and the daily mid-band at 63,800 is right overhead.
There are three things on the news front:
First, expectations for a Fed rate hike are cooling. The probability of a September hike has dropped from 47% a month ago to around 30%.
Second, the latest disclosed 13F filings show that JPMorgan increased its holdings of Bitcoin ETFs by 25.5%, while Morgan Stanley increased by 23%.
Third, ETF funds have begun to flow back. Last week, the total net inflow into Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs amounted to $1.1 billion.
After the drop from 64,500 on the night of 8.11, the price has been consolidating in the 63.0–64.0 range. The highs have been getting lower, the lows too, and the overall center of gravity has been shifting downward.
But after 8.14 reached 62,666, things changed. 62,666 was lower than the previous low, yet the price only paused there for one K-line. The next candle immediately reclaimed it. Then it went sideways for three days without dropping. Today, it started pushing upward with increased volume.
This is a classic stop-hunt/false breakdown structure: it breaks below the prior low to scare out the stop-loss orders, then quickly snaps back.
If the daily close holds above 63,800, then the target for this rebound is 65,200—the upper daily band. If 63,800 can’t be held, then it’ll remain range-bound: a drift back toward 63,000 to grind.
#比特币走势 $BTC
The Bollinger Bands have narrowed down into a single line
Over the past three days, the price has been moving sideways within the range of 63,100 to 64,000. Volatility has been shrinking, while trading volume keeps getting lower. In one hour, the difference between the upper and lower Bollinger Bands is only 700 points, and in four hours it’s just 1,250 points.
This degree of band contraction is the most typical signal before a breakout. When the price is compressed to the limit, it must choose a direction.
If it moves upward: it must first hold above 63,650 (the 4-hour middle band), and then push toward 64,000 (the daily middle band). Only if 64,000 is reclaimed will the damage from the bearish candle on 8/11 be considered repaired. Otherwise, any rebound is just false.
If it moves downward: a drop below 62,800 (the daily lower band) is the confirmation signal. If that level breaks, the next area is 60,600 (the 3-day lower band), followed by the 57,000–58,000 zone. There isn’t much in the way of meaningful support in between.
After the price was smashed down from 64,500 on the night of 8/11, it has been hovering here for three days. This kind of consolidation won’t last too long. A direction should emerge within the next 24 to 48 hours.
In terms of trading, it’s far more reliable to wait for the direction to become clear before deciding, rather than guessing right now. If it breaks upward, wait for a confirmed hold above 64,000. If it breaks down, then if 62,800 can’t be defended, it means the trend will continue.
#比特币走势分析 $BTC
Over the past three days, the price has been moving sideways within the range of 63,100 to 64,000. Volatility has been shrinking, while trading volume keeps getting lower. In one hour, the difference between the upper and lower Bollinger Bands is only 700 points, and in four hours it’s just 1,250 points.
This degree of band contraction is the most typical signal before a breakout. When the price is compressed to the limit, it must choose a direction.
If it moves upward: it must first hold above 63,650 (the 4-hour middle band), and then push toward 64,000 (the daily middle band). Only if 64,000 is reclaimed will the damage from the bearish candle on 8/11 be considered repaired. Otherwise, any rebound is just false.
If it moves downward: a drop below 62,800 (the daily lower band) is the confirmation signal. If that level breaks, the next area is 60,600 (the 3-day lower band), followed by the 57,000–58,000 zone. There isn’t much in the way of meaningful support in between.
After the price was smashed down from 64,500 on the night of 8/11, it has been hovering here for three days. This kind of consolidation won’t last too long. A direction should emerge within the next 24 to 48 hours.
In terms of trading, it’s far more reliable to wait for the direction to become clear before deciding, rather than guessing right now. If it breaks upward, wait for a confirmed hold above 64,000. If it breaks down, then if 62,800 can’t be defended, it means the trend will continue.
#比特币走势分析 $BTC
After three attempts to surge past 65500 all failed, even frantic ETF buying can’t save it
On 8.7 the high was 65400, on 8.9 the high was 65500, on 8.10 the high was 65400—three times, and not a single one broke through.
At the 65500 level, the daily Bollinger upper band and the 4-hour upper band are both converging as resistance, and that pressure has been confirmed three times. Bulls kept touching it for three straight days, only to be hammered back every time. On 8.10, it even came as a single solid bearish candle: opened at 64800, the low was 63800, and it closed at 64000. It directly smashed through the lower band from the 4-hour midline, and it closed hugging the lower band without reclaiming it.
65500 is the ceiling. 64800 has turned into resistance, and 64000 is the final shred of a “shield.”
If 65500 can’t be broken through three times, and 64800 can’t be held, then 64000 is in serious danger. From the rebound on 8.1 at 62200 up to 65500, it bounced about 3300 points—then what? One K-line on 8.10 slammed it back by nearly 1000 points.
In the short term, if 64000 can’t be defended, the target directly looks at 62800. Once 62800 is lost, the entire rebound structure collapses, and the price returns to the downward channel.
$BTC #比特币走势分析
On 8.7 the high was 65400, on 8.9 the high was 65500, on 8.10 the high was 65400—three times, and not a single one broke through.
At the 65500 level, the daily Bollinger upper band and the 4-hour upper band are both converging as resistance, and that pressure has been confirmed three times. Bulls kept touching it for three straight days, only to be hammered back every time. On 8.10, it even came as a single solid bearish candle: opened at 64800, the low was 63800, and it closed at 64000. It directly smashed through the lower band from the 4-hour midline, and it closed hugging the lower band without reclaiming it.
65500 is the ceiling. 64800 has turned into resistance, and 64000 is the final shred of a “shield.”
If 65500 can’t be broken through three times, and 64800 can’t be held, then 64000 is in serious danger. From the rebound on 8.1 at 62200 up to 65500, it bounced about 3300 points—then what? One K-line on 8.10 slammed it back by nearly 1000 points.
In the short term, if 64000 can’t be defended, the target directly looks at 62800. Once 62800 is lost, the entire rebound structure collapses, and the price returns to the downward channel.
$BTC #比特币走势分析
What is the market telling you when a single candlestick pierces the lower band and still doesn’t close?
Just now, this 4-hour candlestick was quite interesting.
It opened at 65100, hovering near the upper Bollinger Band around 65300, and then immediately crashed through the mid-band 64900 and smashed through the lower band 64500, with the low going as far as 64160. It closed at 64200. In one candlestick, the price went straight from above the upper band to below the lower band, and the close didn’t reclaim back.
This isn’t a wick. It’s a real body breaking through.
The statistical implication of the lower Bollinger Band is: the probability of price moving within ±2 standard deviations is about 95%. Breaking below the lower band is already a low-probability event, but opening near the upper band and then crashing through the lower band without reclaiming indicates that in these 4 hours, the bears had absolute domination.
The significance of this candlestick:
First, the short-term bullish structure is broken. The mid-band at 64900 has turned from support into resistance. Even if there’s a rebound, it will likely be capped around the mid-band.
Second, this is not a shakeout. A shakeout means piercing through the lower band and then quickly closing back, leaving a long lower shadow. Today, it closed with a real body below the lower band, showing that selling pressure is continuous. This isn’t a needle—it’s a hammer.
Third, the short-term direction is already clear—downward. The next support is at 63500-63800; below that, it’s around the prior lows.
Recently, many major KOLs have turned collectively bullish: “57,000 is the bottom,” “the bear market is over,” “the early phase of a bull market is here”—they’ve been shouting it loudly.
I don’t believe it.
The five-year cycle and the four-year halving—this pattern has been running for over a decade. It won’t become invalid just because an ETF gets approved. It won’t become invalid just because miners pivot to AI. And it won’t become invalid just because everyone wants it to go up.
In a full bear market, there will always be a final bottom where everyone feels so desperate that they end up silent. When it was 57,000, what did you see? Some people were bottom-fishing, some were calling for a bull return, and some were analyzing ETF inflows recovering.
Near the real major bottom, there’s none of that noise. Only silence, only numbness, only, “I’m never watching the charts again.”
On strategy:
For short-term sell positions, you can hold them, with a stop-loss set above the mid-band at 64900. The first target is 63500-63800.
For long-term bottom-fishing, don’t rush—it's nowhere near time yet. When everyone thinks, “Bitcoin is done for,” I’ll be the first to tell you to enter.
#比特币ETF周净流入8.53亿美元 $BTC
Just now, this 4-hour candlestick was quite interesting.
It opened at 65100, hovering near the upper Bollinger Band around 65300, and then immediately crashed through the mid-band 64900 and smashed through the lower band 64500, with the low going as far as 64160. It closed at 64200. In one candlestick, the price went straight from above the upper band to below the lower band, and the close didn’t reclaim back.
This isn’t a wick. It’s a real body breaking through.
The statistical implication of the lower Bollinger Band is: the probability of price moving within ±2 standard deviations is about 95%. Breaking below the lower band is already a low-probability event, but opening near the upper band and then crashing through the lower band without reclaiming indicates that in these 4 hours, the bears had absolute domination.
The significance of this candlestick:
First, the short-term bullish structure is broken. The mid-band at 64900 has turned from support into resistance. Even if there’s a rebound, it will likely be capped around the mid-band.
Second, this is not a shakeout. A shakeout means piercing through the lower band and then quickly closing back, leaving a long lower shadow. Today, it closed with a real body below the lower band, showing that selling pressure is continuous. This isn’t a needle—it’s a hammer.
Third, the short-term direction is already clear—downward. The next support is at 63500-63800; below that, it’s around the prior lows.
Recently, many major KOLs have turned collectively bullish: “57,000 is the bottom,” “the bear market is over,” “the early phase of a bull market is here”—they’ve been shouting it loudly.
I don’t believe it.
The five-year cycle and the four-year halving—this pattern has been running for over a decade. It won’t become invalid just because an ETF gets approved. It won’t become invalid just because miners pivot to AI. And it won’t become invalid just because everyone wants it to go up.
In a full bear market, there will always be a final bottom where everyone feels so desperate that they end up silent. When it was 57,000, what did you see? Some people were bottom-fishing, some were calling for a bull return, and some were analyzing ETF inflows recovering.
Near the real major bottom, there’s none of that noise. Only silence, only numbness, only, “I’m never watching the charts again.”
On strategy:
For short-term sell positions, you can hold them, with a stop-loss set above the mid-band at 64900. The first target is 63500-63800.
For long-term bottom-fishing, don’t rush—it's nowhere near time yet. When everyone thinks, “Bitcoin is done for,” I’ll be the first to tell you to enter.
#比特币ETF周净流入8.53亿美元 $BTC
$64000, is this the bottom or the end of the rebound?
After topping at $126000, BTC has gone through:
12.6w → 8w
Rebound to 9.8w
Dropped to 6w
Rebound to 8.2w
Dropped again to 5.77w
Now, BTC has rebounded from 5.77w to 6.69w, and then pulled back to around 6.24w.
Many people are starting to say the bull market is back, but I don’t think we can rush to conclusions yet.
Technically:
$6.24w is the short-term lifeline.
If it holds here, BTC still has a chance to challenge again:
6.69w → 6.9w weekly mid-band → 7.2w
If it breaks below 6.24, it would suggest that 6.69 might have been the high of this rebound, and the market may seek out 5.77—or even lower—again.
Right now, the most important thing isn’t guessing the bottom, but whether the market can reclaim key resistance.
In the final stage of a bear market, the biggest opportunities often appear when everyone is hesitating.
#比特币收复6.4万美元关口
After topping at $126000, BTC has gone through:
12.6w → 8w
Rebound to 9.8w
Dropped to 6w
Rebound to 8.2w
Dropped again to 5.77w
Now, BTC has rebounded from 5.77w to 6.69w, and then pulled back to around 6.24w.
Many people are starting to say the bull market is back, but I don’t think we can rush to conclusions yet.
Technically:
$6.24w is the short-term lifeline.
If it holds here, BTC still has a chance to challenge again:
6.69w → 6.9w weekly mid-band → 7.2w
If it breaks below 6.24, it would suggest that 6.69 might have been the high of this rebound, and the market may seek out 5.77—or even lower—again.
Right now, the most important thing isn’t guessing the bottom, but whether the market can reclaim key resistance.
In the final stage of a bear market, the biggest opportunities often appear when everyone is hesitating.
#比特币收复6.4万美元关口
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