两栖韭菜

ADP just came out an hour ago tonight: private-sector employment added 86,000 jobs in October, beating expectations of 69,000. September was also revised down from 90,000 to 86,000. Services accounted for 82,000 of the gains, but professional and business services have now fallen for three straight months, shedding another 27,000 jobs.

My view is clear: this data is only half the picture. ADP often doesn’t match Friday’s nonfarm payrolls, so declaring the job market fine based on a single upside surprise is jumping the gun.

Which side are you on: A) The job market held up, Friday’s nonfarm payrolls will probably be solid too, and risk assets will keep grinding higher; B) Don’t be fooled by ADP—the ongoing decline in white-collar jobs is the real crack, and Friday is the real test?

$SPX

Google really isn’t afraid to spend on data centers: it’s putting $15 billion into Malaysia this time, compared with its first $2 billion investment in 2024—that’s more than seven times as much, just like that. Put simply, GPUs can wait, but power and land won’t. Whoever stakes out a spot first is the one who gets to talk about computing capacity down the road. This bill will only keep growing. $GOOGL

Let’s put the takeaway first: burning 1.64 million BNB doesn’t mean its price will rise right away.

On October 19, BNB Chain completed its 37th quarterly burn, permanently removing 1,646,196.44 BNB. That was worth about $1.197 billion on paper, leaving a total supply of 131,512,085—roughly 31.5 million short of the 100 million target. This automatic burn isn’t something someone just made up on the spot; it’s calculated based on the token’s price and the number of blocks produced on BSC, and happens every quarter.

But a bigger burn doesn’t mean a bigger price jump. Those 1.64 million tokens account for only around 1.25% of the remaining supply, and the price didn’t take off when the burn happened. Some people are touting the $1.2 billion headline as bullish news—but put simply, that’s the value on paper based on the token’s price at the time. Nobody actually spent $1.2 billion sweeping tokens off the market.

So keep these things separate: the long-term decline toward a supply of 100 million makes the scarcity story real; a single quarter’s burn, in the short term, can’t change the broader supply-and-demand picture. Treating it as a signal that prices will rise is just making a big deal out of nothing.

One of the easiest mistakes to make in crypto is treating a mechanism like a news event to trade on. Mechanisms are slow-moving variables; prices are fast-moving ones. A slow-moving variable won’t play out just because you shout about it today.

Don’t chase headline-driven bullish news. Just watch it burn quarter after quarter—that’s the sensible approach.

#BNB's 37th quarterly burn removes 1.64 million tokens
$BNB

The networking gear sellers are getting rich first: Arista posted Q3 revenue of $3.66 billion, up 58.5% year over year—the fastest growth since its IPO. Its Q4 outlook also topped expectations, sending shares up 12% after hours. Think about it: in AI data centers, no matter how expensive the chips are, they still need a network to connect them. It’s no surprise that the money is flowing first to the picks-and-shovels sellers. A strong earnings report doesn’t mean the stock will keep rising, but this one at least shows that the data center boom hasn’t run out of steam yet. $ANET

In the morning, they were still saying the outcome was undecided. By afternoon, both chambers had flipped: AP called a Democratic House majority and 53 Senate seats. Futures got spooked overnight, with Nasdaq futures down over 2%, the S&P down 1.2%, and the Nikkei off 4.4%.
But by morning, losses had narrowed to around half a percentage point. Put simply, what the market fears isn’t who wins—it’s uncertainty itself.
There are still big tests tonight: ADP at 21:15 and ISM Services at 23:00. Uber and McDonald’s kick things off with premarket earnings, followed by Qualcomm and Arm after the close.
Don’t judge by that first reaction at the open. First, see whether the data hold up.

$SPX $QQQ

A-share semiconductor stocks bounced 4.1% this morning, led by NAURA Technology. Don’t rush to call it a reversal. Put simply, they’re down 55.4% from their peak and fell 28.7% in a month. Today’s gain hasn’t even made up a fraction of that. A bounce after a steep drop is perfectly normal, but a bounce doesn’t mean the trend has reversed. It’s more likely just catching its breath halfway down the mountain. Do you think the decline has stopped, or will it keep grinding lower?

ETFs saw $1.04 billion in outflows over two days, yet Bitcoin is still hovering around $77,000 👇
There were $643 million in outflows last Friday, followed by another $399 million on Monday. BlackRock alone saw $405 million leave on Monday—the biggest single-day outflow since June. ETH also saw about $140 million in outflows on Monday.
With that much selling, prices haven’t collapsed, which suggests there are buyers on the other side.
I won’t guess how the final vote count will turn out. I’ll focus on one thing: is this institutional rebalancing, or are they really done with crypto? The next ETF data release should give it away.
Let’s not panic—just watch how it unfolds.
$BTC $ETH

U.S. midterm election voting has just wrapped up, but the results are still undecided. Bitcoin is still hovering around $77,000, and the Fear & Greed Index is at 35, still in fear territory.

The bottom line: Don’t bet ahead of the election results. What really matters is whether Bitcoin can hold the $76,000 level. Short-term holders’ average cost is right around here. With the price tracking that cost basis, it suggests recent buyers are basically not in profit. This is the kind of level that wears you down—and makes it easiest to shake people out.

Bitcoin fell about 7% in October, and U.S. spot ETFs saw net outflows of about $643 million on October 30. Money is flowing out—that’s a fact. The election has simply brought uncertainty to the forefront. Once it’s over, the underlying fund-flow dynamics still have to play out, and whoever takes office won’t turn outflows into inflows overnight.

So don’t trade on headlines over the next few days. If you’re heavily invested, ask yourself: If Bitcoin breaks below $76,000 and heads toward $73,000, will you still be able to sleep? If not, the problem isn’t the election—it’s your position size.

The most grueling markets don’t test your judgment as much as your ability to stay put.

$BTC $ETH

The takeaway first: this theft wasn’t caused by the vault door—it started on employees’ computers. #BinanceIncidentReport
Binance’s preliminary report last night laid out the chain of events: In June, an engineer searched for AI coding tools and installed a tampered Homebrew package; in September, another engineer took a fake job interview, and a zero-day Trojan was hidden in the coding assignment’s repository; on October 20, hackers used an internal AI tool as a stepping stone to obtain a container token belonging to the wallet team; on October 29, within four minutes, five hot wallets first transferred out 233 million XRP, followed by SOL, OP, and BTC.
The numbers: around $6.34 billion was affected; approximately $2.85 billion has been frozen or intercepted; 98% of the affected tokens had been replenished by October 31. Binance will absorb the shortfall; users won’t bear the loss. The FBI attributed the attack to North Korea’s TraderTraitor, and Binance says it has blocked 57 suspected North Korean attacks this year.
Put simply, stopping 57 attacks is an achievement; falling victim to the 58th is a lesson: the most expensive line of defense is often the most ordinary computer in someone’s hands.
Being able to stop 57 attacks doesn’t mean the 58th won’t happen.
$BNB $BTC

The books for the first batch were just tallied yesterday, and at noon today the gates opened for the second batch. Binance has started processing withdrawals in the second phase, gradually restoring withdrawals for dozens of coins across nine chains. On Ethereum, LINK, SHIB, and ONDO are among them; on Solana, TRUMP, BONK, and JUP are on the list. Note that withdrawals are being restored in batches, not all at once. Which coins can be withdrawn on which chains depends on whether security checks are complete.

Here’s an interesting contrast: during the hour starting at 3 a.m. today, deposits exceeded withdrawals by about $10 million. During the first nine and a half hours after the gates initially opened, there was a net outflow of $3.64 billion. The tide has turned pretty quickly.

But let’s put the figures in perspective: deposits outpacing withdrawals for one hour doesn’t mean things have recovered across the board. The cumulative net outflow is still there, and verification of the full proof of reserves is also due today. It’s good that the gates are opening wider, but don’t mistake “withdrawals restored in batches” for “everything’s fine now.”

With the second batch of withdrawals now open and money starting to flow back in, do you think things have stabilized, or are people simply tired of withdrawing?

$BNB $BTC

Yesterday's close was interesting: the Dow rose 0.41%, while the Nasdaq fell 1.07% and the S&P dropped 0.51%. Apple and Palantir both beat earnings expectations, but their shares still fell after hours. Old money moved toward the Dow first, while Bitcoin is still hovering around 77,000.

My own view is clear: when the market opens in half an hour, I’m not chasing the Nasdaq hype. First, I want to see how many days this rotation can keep going.

Which side are you on: A, follow the old money and stick with the Dow and value stocks; or B, hold on tight to tech stocks—any dip is an opportunity?

$BTC $AAPL

Shopify got a bit of a raw deal today: GMV rose 29%, and business was clearly heading in the right direction, yet the stock still got hammered 16.2% premarket. Put simply, revenue came in just $100 million below expectations—a $10 million shortfall, and the stock dropped 16%. That’s the market for you: good business doesn’t mean the stock won’t get punished. The higher expectations are, the harder even a small miss gets hit. Don’t let the scary drop distract you—first check whether the business itself has actually gotten worse.

$SHOP

Apple and Palantir both reported better-than-expected earnings last night, yet in after-hours trading one fell more than 2% and the other more than 4%. Even Palantir raising its full-year guidance to $8.5 billion wasn’t enough. Put simply, what’s getting punished now isn’t earnings, but valuations and sentiment. Good earnings are, at best, a ticket to avoid being punished even more. Futures are hovering around flat ahead of the open, and three things are lined up for today: midterm election voting, JOLTS, and AMD’s earnings after the close. Even good companies can still fall; paying too much is the cardinal sin. Don’t rush to buy the dip.

$AAPL $PLTR

Oracle has offered a ready-made example of the cash-burning side of AI: it announced a $20 billion financing plan spread over four years just last week, and it was all used up in a single morning. The stock fell 6.4% intraday, to its lowest level since July. Its market cap has shed more than $60 billion since Investor Day. In short, no matter how grand the story, the books have to add up first.

$ORCL

That weekend breather didn’t last 👇

Yesterday, leverage finally took a quiet day. But today, the moment we woke up, longs got liquidated all over again: nearly $300 million in liquidations across the market over the past 12 hours, 90% of them longs. BTC alone accounted for $67.8 million.

Prices slid back too: BTC is around $76,800, down about 2% in 24 hours; ETH is around $2,250, down about 1%. The Fear Index says it all: it fell from 37 to 26. Yesterday we were worried; today, we’re truly panicking.

Simply put, there’s no major new bearish news behind this move. U.S. tech stocks fell first on Monday, the crypto market followed suit, and leveraged positions couldn’t hold up.

Don’t hand over your positions in a panic, and don’t pile on leverage when the market bounces.

$BTC $ETH

The Nasdaq plunged 2.86% on Friday, but futures have steadied tonight, with the Nasdaq up about 0.8% and the S&P 500 up about 0.5%. Bitcoin is still hovering around $78,000, though, up only about 0.3% in the past 24 hours—it hasn’t followed stocks higher at all.

My stance is clear: if Bitcoin isn’t moving, neither am I. That little bump in futures isn’t enough to make me change course.

Which side are you on? A: Ride the rebound with stocks tonight—get in first and figure it out later; B: If Bitcoin isn’t moving, stay put and wait for it to actually turn higher before following along?

$BTC

Anthropic is really asking for a lot this time: the new shares are being sold only to Japanese investors, with up to $3.5 billion to be raised in one go—more than the $2.2 billion SpaceX previously raised in Japan. The use of proceeds is spelled out plainly: it’s all going toward operating and capital expenditures. In other words, they’ll keep burning cash to secure computing power. The AI race now comes down to who has the deeper pockets. With this much money going up in smoke, will they ever make it back? Which side do you think the market will believe first?