For-Exx Kripto 1

$XRP closes below 1.38, the potential for a decline toward the 1.12 level will come into play.

🔐 END-OF-DAY MARKET REPORT — AUGUST 31, 2026

🌐 TOP STORIES OF THE DAY

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish Jackson Hole speech and renewed U.S.-Iran tensions pushed oil higher and strengthened rate-hike expectations.

A $6.4B options expiry today adds volatility risk.

Tectonic was exploited after TONIC was inflated 100x, collapsing TVL from $121.7M to ~$3M; Cronos validators froze ~$60M.

Strategy’s BTC holdings returned to a 4.4% profit above its $75,653 average cost.

Luke Dashjr left OCEAN and plans a BLAKE2b hard fork on September 1.

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₿ BITCOIN
$BTC opened around $77,700–$78,500, down 0.7%. Warsh and Iran escalation pressured sentiment. BTC failed to retest $80,000 last week. Weakening exchange balances, ETF flows and spot demand are warning signs, although ETFs recorded ~$924M of inflows last week. BTC gained ~24% in August, its strongest monthly performance of 2026, but weak spot demand makes a sustained break above $80,000 harder.

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🔷 ETHEREUM & ALTCOINS
$ETH opened around $2,417–$2,454, down 1.6%. XRP traded near $1.37, Solana near $103 and BNB near $687. The broader market is reducing risk after Warsh’s comments, though crypto remains positive for August.

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📋 KEY CRYPTO DEVELOPMENTS

CryptoQuant’s CEO said price metrics resemble the 2023 recovery and argued the “bear market is over,” though this is not broad consensus.

Tokenomist expects ~$4.7B in September unlocks; SUI, Aptos, Arbitrum and Ethena account for $292M next week.

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🔓 TOKEN UNLOCKS

Sui (SUI) — September 1
Amount: ~$9.7–18M (0.33–0.89% of circulating supply)
Selling pressure: 🟢

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🔭 OUTLOOK & UPCOMING EVENTS

The $6.4B options expiry adds BTC volatility risk. Warsh’s hawkish stance, Iran tensions and weak spot demand remain short-term pressure factors. SUI and ENA unlocks begin September’s broader ~$4.7B schedule. The key test remains whether BTC can retest $80,000.

$LUNC , like other cryptocurrencies, made a pump higher amid the bond-buying euphoria, but is now once again trying to break below the critical 5045 support.

If it breaks below 5045, it could complete the unfinished move toward the 4301 level.

$BTC failed to hold above $80,000. While there is still no clear signal pointing to a downside move, moves without solid fundamentals or real substance eventually tend to reverse.

Longs should be cautious here.

August 31 – September 4, 2026 | Weekly Risk Calendar 🎯 WEEKLY THEME Friday’s August NFP is the climax, preceded by ISM, JOLTS, ADP and Challenger job cuts. BoC and RBNZ also decide rates in the same week, creating CAD/NZD whipsaw risk. Fed Governor Waller’s Thursday speech is also key ahead of NFP. 📅 ECONOMIC CALENDAR Tuesday – September 1 17:00 TRT — ISM Manufacturing PMI, August 2026 17:00 TRT — JOLTS, July 2026 Weak data strengthens slowdown expectations; strong data raises caution. Thursday – September 3 15:30 TRT — Challenger Job-Cut Report, August 2026 15:30 TRT — Weekly Jobless Claims 17:00 TRT — ISM Services PMI, August 2026 Three key releases one day before NFP; Challenger provides an early layoffs signal. During the day — Fed Governor Christopher Waller Speech Waller’s stance is key ahead of NFP. Friday – September 4 15:30 TRT — NFP, Unemployment Rate & Average Hourly Earnings, August 2026 15:30 TRT — Canada Employment Report, August 2026 The main catalyst before September 16 FOMC. After July’s -23K, markets will assess whether weakness continues. ⚡ **CRYPTO & MARKET RISKS** ISM + JOLTS: Weak readings → stronger September hold expectations and support risk assets. Strong data → greater caution ahead of NFP. ADP + BoC/RBNZ: ADP will shape positioning into NFP. CAD/NZD volatility may spill into crypto through the dollar index. NFP: Strong payrolls + high wage growth → weaker September hold expectations, stronger dollar and pressure on crypto leverage. Weak payrolls → firmer hold expectations and stronger risk-on conditions. Earlier data will pre-position markets, reducing surprise risk — but a result far from expectations can still trigger a sharp reaction. $BTC $ETH

🔐 END-OF-DAY MARKET REPORT — August 25, 2026 🌐 TODAY’S TOP HEADLINES Grayscale launched the U.S.’s first privacy-focused crypto ETF, ZCSH, tracking Zcash. It carries a 2.5% annual fee. $ZEC surged 45-73% weekly, reaching 880 $ before retreating to ~814 $; futures open interest nearly doubled to 1.8B $. ADP data is due today; Warsh’s comments ahead of Jackson Hole will be watched. ━━━ ₿ BITCOIN $BTC opened at 78,950-79,100 $, up 1.6%. It briefly broke 80,000 $ and reached 81,023-81,240 $ before retreating to 78,000-79,000 $. BTC is up ~28% in August and has erased last week’s losses. Profit-taking, large transfers and exchange inflows could pressure prices; without stronger volume, BTC could consolidate around 76,000-77,000 $. It remains well below its ~126,000-128,000 $ October 2025 peak. ━━━ 🔷 ETHEREUM & ALTCOINS ETH opened at 2,475-2,482 $, up 0.8%. Zcash dominated attention as its ETF catalyst combined with a privacy and quantum-resistant wallet narrative. Monero continues to face delistings from centralized exchanges under regulatory pressure. ━━━ 📋 TOP CRYPTO NEWS Grayscale will assess Zcash through adoption, usage and network security. Bloomberg Intelligence said the trust-to-ETF conversion process is nearing completion. EU AML rules will require crypto service providers to stop anonymous-enhancing token services by July 2027, creating regulatory risk for EU institutions, although ZCSH is U.S.-listed. ━━━ 🔓 TOKEN UNLOCKS Humanity Protocol (H) — Aug. 25: ~21.3M $ (2.66% of circulating supply), 266.47M tokens. 🟡 Huma Finance (HUMA) — Aug. 26: ~9.3M $ (4.59%). 🟡 ━━━ 🔭 OUTLOOK BTC’s ability to hold above 80,000 $ is the key technical test. Profit-taking and weak volume leave room for a pullback toward 76,000-77,000 $. Jackson Hole, Aug. 27-29, remains the key macro event. Zcash ETF volume and price action could set a precedent for regulated privacy-crypto products. HUMA’s unlock should have limited impact.

🔐 END-OF-DAY MARKET REPORT — August 24, 2026 🌐 TODAY’S TOP HEADLINES Bitcoin and Ethereum posted their strongest recent weekend performance; BTC hit its highest since May and ETH its highest since late January. Butterfill called the rally “a macro, not crypto story,” citing softer inflation and weaker jobs data. The Fed’s Jackson Hole Symposium runs Aug. 27-29, with digital assets in focus. Warsh’s comments will be critical. SEC-CFTC comment period on crypto derivatives rules closes today. BNB Smart Chain activates the Pasteur hard fork at 22:30 TRT. U.S. ADP data arrives Aug. 25 ━ ₿ BITCOIN $BTC opened at 77,700-79,100 $, up 0.8%, after gaining 22-24% over seven days and trading near the Aug. 22 high of 78,048 $. Since 64,928 $ on July 24, the monthly gain is about 12,788 $. Analysts cite ETF demand, short covering and broader risk appetite; ETFs attracted ~1.92B $ over the past week. 80,000 $ is the next psychological test, with profit-taking risk rising. ━ 🔷 ETHEREUM & ALTCOINS ETH opened at 2,463-2,507 $, up 1.6% and ~26% weekly, outperforming BTC. XRP gained 14.6% last week and Solana 6-7%. SEC proposals and CLARITY Act momentum support risk appetite ━ 📋 TOP CRYPTO NEWS Hung Tran said the Fed’s future direction under a new chair may matter more than Powell’s “farewell speech.” CoinDesk highlighted Jackson Hole’s collision with geopolitical risk as U.S.-Iran and Russia-Ukraine tensions persist. ━ 🔓 TOKEN UNLOCKS Humanity Protocol ( $H ) — Aug. 25: ~21.3M $ (2.66% of circulating supply), 266.47M tokens. 🟡 Plasma (XPL) — Aug. 25: ~8.91M $ (3.31%), 88.89M tokens. 🟡 Aug. 25 total: ~30.4M $. HUMA also unlocks 4.59% (~9.3M $) on Aug. 26. ━ 🔭 OUTLOOK Jackson Hole is the week’s key event. A dovish tone or further yield declines could extend the rally, while a hawkish surprise could trigger profit-taking. A sustained BTC break above 80,000 $ is the key technical threshold. H, XPL and HUMA unlocks appear relatively absorbable in the current risk-on environment.

Jackson Hole Summit to Be the Main Focus for Markets This Week **Spot/Summary:** During the August 24–28 week, investors will focus on the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium hosted by the Kansas City Fed. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s speech on Thursday could shape year-end and 2027 expectations for monetary policy. --- Following last week’s Fed minutes and global leading indicators, markets will focus directly on central bank leadership this week. The symposium, held in Wyoming and bringing together central bankers, finance ministers and academics from around the world, has historically been a platform for important policy signals. **Key Data Points of the Week** On Wednesday, the U.S. will release July PCE data — the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge — along with a second-quarter GDP revision, personal income/spending and durable goods orders, creating a dense data package. These figures will provide the market’s last major economic picture before Warsh’s speech on Thursday. **Warsh’s Speech** Fed Chair Kevin Warsh is expected to discuss monetary policy during his speech on Thursday. The market’s focus will be on the probability and magnitude of potential rate hikes during the year and into next year. On Friday, the University of Michigan’s final consumer sentiment and inflation expectations survey will be closely watched. **What Does It Mean for Markets?** Analysts say that if PCE data comes in above expectations, expectations for tighter policy at the September rate decision could strengthen. A cautious tone from Warsh, meanwhile, could support risk appetite. There have been instances in previous years when the symposium triggered unexpected shifts in markets; therefore, volatility is expected to remain above normal throughout the week. $BTC $XRP

🔐 END-OF-DAY MARKET REPORT — August 21, 2026 🌐 TODAY’S TOP HEADLINES Bitcoin added 280B $ to crypto market cap in 24 hours as a short squeeze liquidated 3.5B $ in leveraged positions,the largest short-liquidation wave since 2021. Over 3B $ were shorts; $BTC accounted for ~1.7B $ and ETH ~1.15B $. More than 1B $ in BTC shorts closed within one hour. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded 606M $ in inflows on Aug. 20,their largest inflow since May 1. Ethereum ETFs added 221M $. Strategy rose 12%, while Coinbase, Circle and BitMine gained ~10%. Funding rates remain moderate, suggesting no major new leverage buildup. The Sept. 15 CLARITY vote remains a key catalyst ━━━ ₿ BITCOIN BTC trades at 76,700-77,200 $, up ~7.5%. It reached 79,306 $, its highest since early June, breaking a six-week range with its strongest daily performance since March. The long-short ratio fell from ~1.05 to 0.835 before the squeeze,showing shorts dominated. Open interest rose 9.11% to 131.25B$ ━━━ 🔷 ETHEREUM & ALTCOINS ETH trades at 2,320-2,330 $, up 3.3%, holding above 2,300 $ after yesterday’s 19-20% surge. XRP gained 14.6% to 1.26 $, BNB rose 4.3% to 654 $; LIT and PUMP gained 26.5% and 9.4%. Crypto market cap reached 2.47T$ ━━━ 📋 TOP CRYPTO NEWS Analysts say the squeeze was supported by real demand. Aug. 19 ETF inflow of 517.2M $ was the strongest in over three months. Unlike June’s liquidation waves, shorts dominated, showing a positioning shift. Signals of a regulatory path for Hyperliquid may have fueled the rally’s second leg. ━━━ 🔓 TOKEN UNLOCKS MultiBank Group ( $MBG ) Aug. 22: ~2.85M $ (6.16% of circulating supply),27.15M tokens. 🔴 Meteora (MET) — Aug. 23: ~1.16M $ (1.31% of market cap). 🟡 ━━━ 🔭 OUTLOOK Moderate funding rates suggest leverage has not rebuilt excessively,supporting the rally,but sustained spot buying remains critical. The Sept. 15 CLARITY vote is the key catalyst. MBG and MET unlocks should have limited impact. Markets will watch if BTC can sustain above 79,000 $.

Bitcoin’s Sharp Rally: Is a 2B $ Treasury Buyback Enough? Bitcoin has closed higher in five straight sessions, gaining roughly 24% in three days and moving above 77,000 $. Ethereum, $XRP and Solana also rallied, lifting total crypto market value to about 2.6T $. The key catalyst was the U.S. Treasury’s decision to increase long-term bond buybacks, raising the per-operation limit from 2B $ to at least 4B $. Markets interpreted this as improved liquidity and lower pressure on long-term yields. But this is not QE, and its scale is small relative to the Treasury market. Buybacks alone cannot explain a 24% three-day $BTC rally. About 3.8B $ in Bitcoin shorts were liquidated over two days. Forced purchases accelerated momentum. As key technical levels broke, investors expecting a pullback reassessed positions, potentially shifting the move from short covering into FOMO. XRP gained roughly 20% in 24 hours, while Solana also advanced. The rally is real: technical conditions improved, liquidations cleared sellers, ETF demand recovered and U.S. crypto-regulation optimism supported risk appetite. But calling this a new bull market is premature. Bitcoin’s 24% three-day gain is extremely fast. Lower yields, ETF flows, technical breakouts, short squeezes and FOMO are all contributing. When BTC rises this quickly, investors can buy simply because prices are rising. Once momentum stops, those positions can become selling pressure. The next test is whether ETF inflows continue and real spot buyers remain after the short squeeze. BTC’s move toward 77,000-79,000 $ has strengthened optimism, but volatility can rise just as quickly. **The rally is real. Momentum is strong. But there is not yet enough justification for FOMO.** The key question is **what type of capital is driving the move**. If leverage and short liquidations are doing most of the work, the reversal could be as sharp as the rally.

🔐 END-OF-DAY MARKET REPORT — August 20, 2026 🌐 TODAY’S TOP HEADLINES Trump met Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong, the Winklevoss twins, Kraken’s Arjun Sethi and Robinhood’s Vlad Tenev at a White House crypto summit, urging Congress to pass a “fair version” of the CLARITY Act. Treasury plans to double 20-30Y bond buybacks, pushing yields lower and supporting risk assets. CLARITY Act awaits a key Senate procedural vote on September 15;the 60-vote threshold remains uncertain. CFTC’s Innovation Advisory Committee meets today for the first time to discuss crypto, AI and prediction markets. Canaan rose 20%, Circle 8% and Robinhood 5%, showing the rally is broadening beyond BTC. ━━━ ₿ BITCOIN $BTC opened at 68,150-69,300 $, up 7.1%. It briefly reached 71,980-71,986 $, breaking above 70,000 $ for the first time since early June, before retreating to 68,000-69,000 $. About 1.4B $ in shorts were liquidated. Heavy liquidity above 71,000-72,000 $ makes this zone critical for the rally. BTC remains ~40% below its October 2025 peak near 126,000 $. ━━━ 🔷 ETHEREUM & ALTCOINS ETH rose 17.5% to 2,250-2,290 $. XRP gained 15.6%, Solana 12.4% and BNB 6.7%, showing broad participation. Coinbase and Robinhood also benefited ━━━ 📋 TOP CRYPTO NEWS The rally has two catalysts: Treasury buybacks and Trump’s CLARITY Act push. If the September 15 vote fails, the bill could effectively die this year. SEC Chair Atkins said“Regulation Crypto Assets”highlights the legal certainty CLARITY would provide, but cannot replace congressional action. ━━━ 🔓 TOKEN UNLOCKS Avalanche ( $AVAX ) — Aug. 21: ~23M $ (~0.7% of market cap),~3.58M tokens. Foundation. 🟢 Routine monthly unlock;strong risk appetite may ease absorption. ━━━ 🔭 OUTLOOK A sustained break above 71,000-72,000 $ could confirm a lasting trend shift;failure could turn the move into a short squeeze. The September 15 CLARITY vote is a key medium-term catalyst. Today’s CFTC meeting is also key to watch. AVAX’s unlock should have limited impact.

🔐 END-OF-DAY MARKET REPORT — August 19, 2026 🌐 TODAY’S TOP HEADLINES U.S. Treasury will double long-term bond buyback limits from 2B $ to 4B $ per operation, starting larger purchases September 9. Yields fell and the dollar weakened. SEC unveiled “Regulation Crypto Assets,” including a startup exemption allowing crypto ventures to raise up to 5M $ over four years without securities registration. Metaplanet plans “Superplanet,” a U.S. treasury platform backed by 2,100 BTC (132M $). South Korea classified Polymarket as illegal gambling and moved to block access. ━━━ ₿ BITCOIN $BTC surged 5-6% to 68,000-68,500 $, briefly touching 69,700 $, a two-month high, before rejection near the 200-day MA at ~69,000 $. About 1.4B $ in shorts were liquidated. Geoff Kendrick sees 65,500 $ as the key upside level. Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded 297.5M $ in net inflows on Aug. 17, led by IBIT at 160.2M $. ━━━ 🔷 ETHEREUM & ALTCOINS ETH rose 8.4% to 2,084 $, with open interest briefly reaching 13B $. Solana gained 7%. Gold rose 3.5% to 4,489 $ and silver to 65.60 $. Bullish and Coinbase gained 13% and 11%. ━━━ 📋 TOP CRYPTO NEWS Analysts viewed the Treasury move as liquidity support amid rising debt and interest costs. The SEC proposal could help mature decentralized networks such as Bitcoin and Ethereum avoid securities classification. ━━━ 🔓 TOKEN UNLOCKS LayerZero (ZRO) — Aug. 20: ~20.5M $ (4.40% of circulating supply). Private investors + team + community. 🔴 Sui ( $SUI ) — Sep. 1: Community Reserve; 40.75% of supply unlocked so far. 🟡 ━━━ 🔭 OUTLOOK FOMC minutes could determine whether Treasury-driven yield declines persist. A hawkish tone could reverse the move. BTC’s ability to reclaim ~69,000 $ is the key technical test; failure could send it toward 65,500 $. The White House crypto meeting and SEC proposal add regulatory significance, while ZRO’s unlock could add volatility.

🔐 END-OF-DAY MARKET REPORT — August 18, 2026
🌐 TODAY’S TOP HEADLINES
U.S.-Iran talks remain stalled; limited Hormuz traffic revived supply concerns, pushing Brent to ~$91.

U.S. Treasury opened public comment on stablecoin rules under the GENIUS Act.
Japan’s 5Y yield rose 2 bps to a record 2.18%.
A macOS screen-sharing flaw was exploited for root access and Monero-mining malware.
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₿ BITCOIN
$BTC recovered to $64,000-$64,500 after falling below $63,000. $65,000-$65,600 remains a strong supply zone. After $385M+ of spot Bitcoin ETF outflows last week, flows turned positive Monday after a three-day outflow streak.
$63,245 is short-term support; below it could target $62,665. Above $64,470 would strengthen buying confidence. Fear & Greed rose to 40, while the Altcoin Season Index recovered to 46.
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🔷 ETHEREUM & ALTCOINS
ETH traded at $ 1,895-$ 1,910. Total crypto market cap rose 2.6% to $2.28T; BTC dominance is 56.5% and ETH 10.1%. Polkadot and XRP Ledger led gainers, while Velvet, Cysic and SAFEbit fell 44.5%, 36.4% and 30.5%.
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📋 TOP CRYPTO NEWS
Jane Street increased its Bitcoin ETF holdings by $630M to ~$ 1.06B in Q2.
Bitmine added $19M and 9,926 ETH, reaching 5.82M ETH, or 4.8% of circulating supply.
Stablecoin market cap fell to ~$308.3B in July, its third straight monthly decline.
Pump fun launched zero-commission trading with a 0.1% cross-chain fee.
Ethereum Foundation released the Platåberget testnet for Glamsterdam.
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🔓 TOKEN UNLOCKS
Avalanche ( $AVAX ) — Aug. 20: ~$268M (2.4% of circulating supply), 9.4-9.5M AVAX. 🔴No new confirmed unlock above the threshold for Aug. 19.
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🔭 OUTLOOK
U.S. August PMI and Japan CPI on Aug. 21, alongside AKE’s unlock equal to 9.35% of circulating supply, could increase volatility. AVAX’s Aug. 20 unlock is one of the month’s largest. Limited Hormuz traffic and rising oil prices may keep pressure on crypto and other risk assets.

🔐 END-OF-DAY MARKET REPORT — August 15, 2026
🌐 TODAY’S TOP HEADLINES
OCC granted preliminary approval to World Liberty Trust Company as a national trust bank, enabling World Liberty Financial to manage its $ 4B USD1 stablecoin.
CFTC used emergency authority to protect institutional prediction markets.
The EU mandated its 20th sanctions package, banning crypto services to Russia.
Cboe BZX filed for 3x leveraged Bitcoin and Ether ETFs; this is not approval.
Unverified claims allege 1,778 BTC (~$112M) were drained from older Coldcard firmware; no official confirmation.
CME open interest fell to ~123,000 BTC, its lowest since February 2024, while Binance surpassed CME in futures open interest.
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₿ BITCOIN
$BTC remains range-bound at $63,000-$63,200. Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $56.2M in Friday outflows; IBIT led at $55.5M, while BITB had $6.1M in inflows. Fear & Greed rose to 35, still below neutral. Long liquidations were 4.9x short liquidations, showing crowded longs remain under pressure.
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🔷 ETHEREUM & ALTCOINS
Solana ETFs recorded $10.26M in weekly inflows. Chainlink rose 7.53% to $9.41, OKB gained 5.07% to $106.97, and Avalanche 4% to $6.66. ACE surged 102.8% on a verified Bitget PoolX promotion.
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📋 TOP CRYPTO NEWS
The SEC postponed its tokenization “innovation exemption” proposal and canceled its August 14 meeting, extending uncertainty into September.
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🔓 TOKEN UNLOCKS
$YZY — Aug. 16: ~$35.22M (22.83% of circulating supply), 120.83M tokens. Recipient: Yeezy Investments LLC + other allocations. 🔴
Note: The month’s largest single cliff unlock; concentrated recipients increase selling risk.
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🔭 OUTLOOK
BTC’s narrow range and low CME open interest suggest institutional liquidity is shifting overseas, especially to Binance. If confirmed, Coldcard exploit claims could put self-custody security back in focus. YZY’s unlock poses volatility risk. Aug. 19 FOMC minutes and the White House crypto meeting will be key events.

August 17–21, 2026 — ForExxKripto Market Expectations Indicator $BTC $LUNC

August 17–21, 2026 | Weekly Risk Calendar 🎯 WEEKLY THEME July CPI eased to 3.4% and core CPI to a five-month low of 2.5%, both in line with expectations. PPI was flat versus +0.2% expected. Combined with the July -23K NFP shock, September hold expectations rose to 64%. This week brings July FOMC minutes and global Flash PMI data. August NFP and CPI remain ahead, making this a positioning week before Jackson Hole. 📅 ECONOMIC CALENDAR Tuesday – August 18 15:30 TRT — Housing Starts & Building Permits 16:15 TRT — Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization These will test whether July’s weakness was limited to employment or reflects broader economic slowing. 09:00 TRT — UK CPI A key signal for whether global disinflation is developing alongside the Fed’s easing signal. Wednesday – August 19 21:00 TRT — FOMC Minutes (July 28–29) The week’s key event. Hammack, Kashkari and Logan dissented for a 25-bp hike. The minutes will show the strength of the internal debate. Because they predate the July -23K NFP shock, markets may view them as backward-looking. Friday – August 21 🌍 Afternoon — Global S&P Flash PMI Package 16:45 TRT — U.S. S&P Global Flash PMI The first major real-time activity data for August. Hiring and price components will show whether labor-market weakness is broadening and whether PPI’s flat reading is continuing. ⚡ CRYPTO & MARKET RISKS FOMC Minutes: Strong dissenting arguments could revive September hike expectations and support the dollar. If Warsh’s data-dependent stance dominates, 64% hold pricing could strengthen, supporting risk assets. But the minutes exclude the NFP shock. Flash PMI: Weak hiring signals would reinforce the slowdown narrative, strengthen September hold expectations and support crypto. Strong PMI could suggest the -23K NFP was temporary noise. A calm but fragile week: low summer liquidity could amplify any surprise in the minutes or PMIs. Jackson Hole (August 27–29) is the next major catalyst. $BTC $XRP

Fed’s Search for a New Path: Rate Hike Risk Remains After Inflation Data The Federal Reserve kept rates at 3.50%-3.75% at its July 28-29 FOMC meeting, reviving a key market question: Will the next move be a cut or a hike? July’s decision and the August 12 CPI data suggest rate-hike risk remains on the table. The July decision passed 9-3, with three members voting for a 25-bp hike. The August 19 minutes will show why the committee diverged and will be closely watched ahead of September. July CPI offered a mixed picture. Headline CPI eased to 3.4% YoY, with monthly CPI at 0.1%. Core CPI rose 0.2% MoM and 2.5% YoY. Weak labor data, including a 23K decline in July payrolls and weaker-than-expected ADP employment, had raised hopes for slower inflation. The moderate CPI reduced hike expectations, but did not eliminate them. The Fed’s hawkish camp remains active. Neel Kashkari argued rates should begin rising gradually to contain inflation. Lisa Cook said the Fed is prepared to hike if inflation fails to slow. Chair Kevin Warsh stressed that 2% remains the only inflation target, rejecting any “soft” or “implicit loose” target. The Financial Times reported that Warsh could support a September hike if inflation data comes in high. Warsh became the Fed’s 17th Chair on May 22, 2026, replacing Jerome Powell. His approach is more skeptical of forward guidance, making data dependence especially important. Markets now await Warsh’s first major Jackson Hole speech, where investors expect signals on the policy path without firm commitments. The next FOMC decision comes September 16 after the September 15-16 meeting. It will include updated economic projections and the dot plot. In short, moderate CPI reduced hike expectations, but Kashkari, Cook and Warsh show that rate-hike risk remains part of the Fed debate. The August 19 minutes and Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech will be key signals before September. $BTC $XRP

🔐 END-OF-DAY MARKET REPORT — August 14, 2026
🌐 TODAY’S TOP HEADLINES
U.S. July PPI rose 4.7% YoY, below 4.9% expected, but crypto failed to recover as spot Bitcoin ETFs posted a second day of net outflows.
The SEC canceled its “Regulation Crypto” meeting, citing scheduling issues.
Goldman Sachs agreed to acquire NEOS Investments for up to $2.25B, adding ~$30B in options-based revenue ETFs, including Bitcoin- and Ethereum-linked funds.
SharpLink is moving $200M of treasury ETH into liquid staking via Lido.
Bitcoin’s 30-day implied volatility index fell to ~36%, its 2026 low, while VIX also hit its lowest since January.
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₿ BITCOIN
BTC fell to $62,700-$63,000, erasing last week’s gains and its lowest since August 3. Below all major moving averages, Fear & Greed fell to 29 and RSI14 stood at 42, weak but not oversold. Support is near $62,532; reclaiming the $63,961 EMA20 could signal weakening downside momentum. Despite spot weakness, ETFs recorded $850M in net inflows, showing institutional demand persists.
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🔷 ETHEREUM & ALTCOINS
ETH traded at $ 1,870-$ 1,885,relatively resilient versus BTC. XRP remained near $ 1, while $NEAR ,Morpho, TAO and Jupiter fell about 2%. Altcoin positioning remains cautious.
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📋 TOP CRYPTO NEWS
Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $192M in outflows for a second straight day, the first two-day outflow streak since late July.
RedotPay reportedly suspended plans for a $1B U.S. IPO
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🔓 TOKEN UNLOCKS
Connex (CONX) — Aug. 15:~$11.55M (1.43% of circulating supply), 1.32M tokens. 🟡
Arbitrum ( $ARB ) — Aug. 16:~$ 7.19M (1.61%), 92.65M tokens. 🟡
━
🔭 OUTLOOK
Despite softer PPI, BTC failed to recover and ETFs saw a second straight day of outflows, suggesting liquidity and positioning, not macro data, are driving weakness. The SEC delay extends regulatory uncertainty. Goldman’s NEOS acquisition highlights institutional consolidation. CONX and ARB unlocks could add altcoin volatility as low implied volatility remains a key theme

$BTC is moving sideways in the same way, and it has been for quite some time. Look at the white lines; even though there are occasional moves above and below them, we can say it has been moving between 65,743 and 62,897... If prices were settling around the 50,000 levels and making these moves, I would say we had entered a consolidation phase ahead of a bull market, whether it lasted 3 months, 5 months, or whatever. But I think there is still another downward wave to come...

$HYPE is currently at 56.50, and I’m expecting it to test the 53.50 level.

Price ranges in crypto have been extremely tight lately; they’re basically grinding sideways, leaving hardly anything even with leverage. I’d like to attribute this to the declining trading volumes during the summer holiday period.