CryptoQuant Quicktake

Bitcoin Open Interest by Exchange (30D Change) data reflects clear shifts in the distribution of open interest across exchanges. The data indicates that Bitcoin open interest has increased significantly in recent days, reaching its highest level since the beginning of 2026. This reflects a strong resurgence in derivatives market activity and a clear increase in the use of leverage.

In terms of specific values, Binance leads with approximately $1.33 billion, making it the platform with the largest recent increase in open interest. Bybit follows with around $737 million, while OKX records approximately $511 million.

Conversely, some exchanges are showing a decline in open interest. For instance, Bitfinex recorded a decrease of approximately $31.6 million, while Kraken saw a decline of around $1.18 million. This suggests a partial outflow of liquidity or relatively weaker activity compared to the larger exchanges.

Notably, this rise in open interest coincides with Bitcoin trading near $74,000 without any sharp breakouts, indicating the accumulation of substantial positions in the market. This situation often precedes strong price movements, as the buildup of positions alongside price stability increases the likelihood of a price squeeze (short or long squeeze).

A rise in open interest indicates new liquidity entering the market, an increase in open positions (both long and short), and higher leverage usage. When this occurs alongside rising prices, it often confirms a bullish trend, driven by new long positions, though the market may become increasingly crowded.

Written by Arab Chain

The Bitcoin Combined Market Index (BCMI)—composed of MVRV, NUPL, SOPR, and Fear & Greed—is currently testing a major historical pivot zone.

Key Conservative Insights:

1️⃣ Strategic Undervaluation: The index has dropped into the 0.2 - 0.3 range. While this doesn't guarantee an immediate "V-shape" recovery, it identifies a zone where $BTC has historically been deeply undervalued.

2️⃣ Confluence of Data: By weighting MVRV(30%) and NUPL(25%), the BCMI confirms that the current correction has reset both realized value and investor sentiment to levels not seen since early 2023.

3️⃣ Patience is Key: The SMA(90) (White Line) is still trending downward. From a conservative standpoint, we are looking for this slope to flatten—signaling that the selling momentum has finally exhausted.

The Bottom Line:

We are entering a "Value-Accumulation Zone." The data suggests the downside is becoming limited compared to the long-term upside. However, wait for price stabilization to confirm the index's bottom signal.

Written by 우민규 Woominkyu

Bitcoin’s struggle at the $75K resistance is revealing a clear structural mismatch. While price action looks consolidative, the underlying flows suggest a shift in sentiment among major players.

We’ve just seen a significant spike in Exchange Inflow CDD.

Large volumes of "Old Money" (coins held for years) are hitting exchanges since 4/15. This could indicate that aging holders are capitalizing on the current liquidity to de-risk or realize profits at this psychological level.

Simultaneously, the Coinbase Premium is losing its upward momentum. That is, the aggressive U.S. buying pressure that fueled the recent bounce is visibly cooling off.

Supply is hitting the market (via CDD) just as the primary demand engine (Coinbase buyers) is shifting to a neutral stance. With the weekend approaching, the risk-to-reward ratio for long positions at $75K has significantly deteriorated. Expect a sideways chop or a sharp retest of lower support levels if the Coinbase Premium remains suppressed over the weekend.

On a short-term basis, the risk-to-reward ratio for long positions at $75K has significantly deteriorated. Without a fresh influx of institutional bidding to absorb this LTH sell pressure, a "fakeout" remains the primary risk.

Written by Sunny Mom

According to the “Drawdown from ATH for major assets” chart, global markets are showing a clear divergence in recovery. While the S&P 500 and Nasdaq have returned to all-time highs, Bitcoin and Ethereum remain significantly below their peaks.

BTC is still about -40% from its ATH, and ETH about -52%, highlighting a notable lag behind equities. Meanwhile, gold (-12%) and silver (-34%) are also in correction territory, reinforcing that this is not a broad-based rally, but a selective allocation of capital.

The key is the quality of this equity rally. It is not driven by full inflation resolution or aggressive monetary easing, but rather by the repricing of tail risks—particularly easing geopolitical tensions and reduced energy shock fears. Liquidity conditions remain tight, with interest rates still elevated.

Market flows typically follow a sequence: oil → dollar & rates → equities → Bitcoin. At present, equities are leading as upstream pressures ease, while crypto sits later in this chain.

On-chain data suggests BTC structure is improving, with declining exchange reserves and continued accumulation. However, price remains below key resistance, indicating a “pre-breakout” phase rather than confirmed recovery.

In essence, Bitcoin’s lag does not signal weakness, but timing. The structure is building beneath the surface.

Written by XWIN Research Japan

The market is witnessing a high-class divergence in XRP. With the XRP Spot Price (USD) hitting $1.409 during our data snapshot—and already accelerating past $1.45—the driving force is not retail, but rather a silent structural adoption. Our proprietary indicator, the XRPL: Speculation-to-Utility, has compressed its Ratio to an impressive 1.75. Mathematically, this means the network has reached a rare level of efficiency: for every 1 token traded on exchanges, there is a nearly equivalent backing of real use.

ON-CHAIN VS. SPECULATION

This efficiency is proven by an On-Chain Settlement Volume (XRP) of 291.37M. In crypto, exchange turnover is usually 10x, 20x, or even 50x greater than utility. However, the Aggregate Speculative Volume (XRP) is atypically contained at 510.92M, generating a very rare Ratio of 1.75. Instead of speculation overwhelming the network, fundamentals have stolen the show: on-chain infrastructure is already operating with a volume nearly identical to that of the "casino."

ACTIVE ADDRESSES & NETFLOWS

To validate the integrity of this flow, the background data is definitive. The XRP Ledger: Active Addresses (24h) registered 17,329 active accounts, breaking the weekly average and confirming systemic capillarity. Even more lethal is the XRP Ledger: Exchange Inflow - Binance: while 291 million XRP were settled on the blockchain, only 1.36M entered the world's leading exchange.

CONCLUSION

The massive on-chain volume is focused on institutional remittances (ODL) and cold custody (OTC). With no coins entering exchanges to generate selling pressure, the price of US$ 1.409 is just the beginning of the adjustment to the supply shock. Value is finally following utility.

Written by GugaOnChain

Binance’s stablecoin reserves are rising again, pointing to stronger dollar liquidity on the exchange and potentially more capital available for deployment across the market.

USDT reserves on Binance increased from $35.4 billion on March 16 to $39.7 billion on April 16, a rise of about $4.3 billion in one month.

At the same time, USDC reserves climbed from $6.6 billion on March 31 to $7.2 billion on April 16. Earlier in the cycle, Binance’s USDC reserve was around $4.7 billion at the beginning of February.

Taken together, Binance’s USDT and USDC reserves expanded by roughly $4.9 billion during this recent buildup.

That matters because rising stablecoin balances usually mean deeper exchange liquidity and a larger pool of sidelined capital that can move into spot or derivatives markets.

In simple terms, Binance is holding more on-exchange dollar liquidity than before.

When stablecoin reserves keep growing at this pace, it often reflects improving market readiness rather than immediate exhaustion.

Written by Amr Taha

Despite heightened geopolitical tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, the start of the week shifted toward de-escalation, something the market had already begun pricing in.

This was further supported by U.S. PPI data coming in well below expectations. The March Core PPI printed at 0.1% (vs 0.3% in February), highlighting the resilience of the U.S. economy and its ability to absorb energy-driven inflation without it spreading deeply into production costs.

In this context, some investors appear to be gradually redeploying their stablecoins onto exchanges, either to take positions or to prepare for it.

These inflows have been largely directed toward Binance, which is showing a net monthly average of around $4B. Throughout April, stablecoin (ERC-20) netflows on Binance have been clearly dominated by inflows, with net daily inflows ranging between $100M and $450M.

As a result, stablecoin reserves (ERC-20) on Binance have started to rise again, which is a constructive signal. After dropping by nearly $10B, reserves have now recovered by approximately $6B, indicating a meaningful return of liquidity and renewed demand.

This is a noteworthy and broadly positive dynamic developing within a temporarily easing macro environment. However, the situation remains fragile, and caution is warranted, as conditions could deteriorate quickly and potentially halt this emerging positive trend.

Written by Darkfost

The Sharpe Ratio for Ethereum on Binance reflects a gradual improvement in return quality in recent periods, despite some continued volatility in overall market performance.

According to the latest data, the index is registering a value of approximately 0.07—a positive reading, though still within moderate levels. This indicates that Ethereum's current returns are beginning to improve relative to risk, but have not yet reached a level of clear strength. The 30-day average return stands at around 0.0027, reflecting modest positive performance, while volatility continues to significantly limit further gains in the index.

Looking at the index’s behavior over the past few months, we observe that it remained in negative territory for a considerable period, particularly during February, when it reached low levels that reflected weak risk-adjusted returns. However, the recent gradual shift toward positive values suggests improving market efficiency, with prices beginning to recover from previous lows.

Notably, this improvement in the Sharpe Ratio coincides with a relative stabilization in Ethereum’s price around $2,300, suggesting that the market is entering a phase of gradual equilibrium, where returns improve without excessive volatility. This environment is often considered healthy for building a sustainable upward trend.

However, the current reading remains far from the elevated levels associated with strong momentum, indicating that the market has not yet entered a sharp upward phase. A continued rise in the indicator in the coming period would signal improving investor confidence and stronger risk-adjusted returns.

Written by Arab Chain

Ethereum (ETH) is trading at $2,301.64 (+6.18% in 7d) in a scenario of rare asymmetry. The Ethereum Risk Matrix reveals that the AVIV Risk Oscillator hit 0.986, entering the Deep Value Zone (<1.0). This historical level indicates that the price has fallen below the active cost basis, signaling retail capitulation and the exact point of absorption by "Smart Money". Confirming this thesis, the Aggregate Netflow registers a neutral 148 ETH, perfectly aligned with the Netflow Equilibrium. This proves the exhaustion of selling pressure, keeping the flow extremely distant from our Distribution Influx Zone (>100k ETH).

DRY POWDER

To shield the matrix, we cross-referenced the reading with two native metrics: the ETH: Exchange Reserve from Binance and the Stablecoin Supply Ratio (SSR). With the physical reserves of the yellow exchange locked at 3.44 million ETH and the global inventory at secure marks of $10.01 Billion, the absence of large deposits reveals that strong hands are retaining the supply, rather than sending it to be dumped. In parallel, the SSR hitting 11.08 indicates a robust macro buying power in stablecoins ("dry powder") in the market.

CONCLUSION

The diagnosis is lethal: the primary selling supply on Binance has dried up, and the buying liquidity awaits the trigger. The risk, today, is having too low of a capital exposure in the face of this asymmetry.

Written by GugaOnChain

Ethereum is holding above $2,300, even as the 30-day Open Interest Change turns negative across most major derivatives exchanges.

On April 16, 2026, readings reached -$227 million on Binance, -$38 million on Bybit, and -$132 million on OKX, pushing the market back near the same low zone seen in April and June 2025.

Rather than being purely bearish, this type of decline in open interest often points to falling excessive leverage.

That usually helps reduce crowded futures positioning and can support a healthier upside structure.

This does not guarantee an immediate upside move, but it does suggest that another derivatives reset is unfolding beneath the surface while ETH continues to hold above $2,300.

Written by Amr Taha

When in doubt, zoom out.

The Sharpe Ratio is sitting in one of the lowest risk zones of this entire cycle. These readings don't show up often. The last comparable compression was a few weeks ago, and before that you have to go back to moments that preceded significant repricing.

Can we go lower? Absolutely. But the probability skew at these levels favors positioning, not panic. This is the kind of zone where volatility shakes people out before FOMO brings them back.

📊 STH Cost Basis Tells the Other Half

Short-term holders with 1-3 month positions are sitting at a realized price of $76,119. BTC at $74,800. They're underwater. The 1 week to 1 month cohort is at $69,425, barely in profit.

This is the part of the cycle where STH suffer. Many are dropping off. Many are realizing they took too much risk. Many are scalping and getting chopped up. And the telling part is this: the STH cost basis hasn't even started moving up yet.

I don't look at fractals that often. But these are the fractals worth watching. Not price patterns. Cohort behavior.

🔍 What Maturation Looks Like

As more holders mature from short-term to long-term, the STH realized price tends to hold previous supports and push higher. The market matures. The cohorts mature. Silently accumulating. When that base strengthens, price tends to follow.

The $70K to $68K zone is the floor that matters right now. Holding above it is a major win for the bigger picture, and that remains the most likely outcome.

⏳ The Bigger Picture

Small pumps and dumps at this stage are misleading. They trap traders who react to noise instead of structure. Short-term holders are the only ones suffering deeply from this volatility. Long-term holders don't sell at these valuations. They sell at high valuation points, not here.

Risk-adjusted returns near cycle lows. BTC below every STH band. LTH cohorts quietly building underneath. The structure is improving even if the surface looks messy.

Zoom out. The show hasn't started yet.

Written by RugaResearch

The recent spike in Exchange Inflow CDD to 3.6M indicates that a large volume of long-held Bitcoin—ranging from several thousand to tens of thousands of BTC—has moved into the market at once. Historically, increases in CDD during distribution phases have tended to precede price declines. In the current context, this is best interpreted as selling pressure against a short-term rebound.

However, from a short-term perspective, this selling pressure is likely being absorbed without significant market impact, as the Coinbase Premium remains in positive territory, suggesting continued spot demand, particularly from U.S.-based participants.

On a broader scale, the macro environment is undergoing structural shifts, including the launch of a Bitcoin ETF by Morgan Stanley, progress on the Clarity Act, and a potential easing of geopolitical tensions. While short-term selling pressure may persist, it is increasingly likely that the type of sustained downtrend seen in previous cycles has already come to an end.

Even if a short-term correction intensifies, the CME gap near the 67K level is likely to act as a final support zone.

Written by ScenarioX

The Bitcoin Sell-Side Liquidity indicator shift in the supply and demand balance within the Bitcoin market. The data shows a clear decline in the liquidity available for sale, while demand from accumulation wallets remains strong.

According to the latest data, total sell-side liquidity stands at approximately 8.53 million Bitcoin, a relatively low level compared to previous periods. In contrast, demand from accumulation addresses has increased notably to around 275,000 Bitcoin over the past 30 days, reflecting continued long-term buying behavior by investors.

Most importantly, the Liquidity Inventory Ratio has dropped to around 30 months, a level that reflects a significant reduction in the supply available for sale. Historically, when this indicator declines, it signals a liquidity shortage in the market, increasing the likelihood of sharp price movements if demand continues to rise.

It is also noteworthy that this decline in liquidity coincides with a relatively stable price around $74,000, without any strong selling pressure. This divergence suggests that the market may be in a “supply absorption” phase, where Bitcoin is transitioning from sellers to long-term holders—a phase that often precedes strong upward movements.

the current data reflects a market characterized by a supply deficit supported by stable demand, reinforcing the hypothesis of a continued medium-term uptrend. However, price movements could become more pronounced if this supply-demand imbalance persists.

Written by Arab Chain

The inability of recent buying pressure to sustain itself may be the most important takeaway from this chart. Since the beginning of 2026, buyer dominance has been quite strong, yet the price has not moved upward accordingly; instead, it has shown only a weak recovery after the decline. This divergence suggests that sellers placing limit orders at resistance levels are gradually absorbing the incoming demand. In other words, while some participants are buying aggressively at market, others are consistently supplying liquidity from above.

Retail investors tend to FOMO into each upward move, while whales use these rallies as liquidity opportunities to distribute their Bitcoin. One key point many overlook is this: even if the “all exchanges” data shows strong buying activity, the data from Binance often determines the actual market direction. This is because whales and institutional players predominantly operate there. Their activity is most accurately reflected on Binance. As seen many times before, if the ratio on Binance diverges from other exchanges, the true market direction typically follows Binance.

Currently, the ratio stands around 0.97, which is below the critical threshold. Sellers have started to regain aggression, and buyers are no longer able to push the price higher. Although the price attempted to rise, it failed to sustain momentum. In this environment, increasing short positions in the derivatives market add further downward pressure. Unless whales shift to strong buying behavior, the market is likely to encounter persistent selling during any sideways movement. In the short term, a new low may be on the horizon.

Written by PelinayPA

$BTC is still below True Market Mean Price. TMM is a core market reference level that reflects the cost basis of active market participants. It now sits near $78.3K, while the price-to-TMM ratio is around 0.95. That leaves price roughly 5% under this level.

The key point is not just the breakdown below TMM. Since losing that level, BTC has been trading sideways beneath it instead of reclaiming it. That makes the move more structural than temporary.

The ratio is no longer at the weakest part of the move, yet it remains below 1.0. That is improvement, not repair.

BTC bounced. TMM still caps the structure. Recovery is not confirmed 🧸 DYOR

Written by TeddyVision

[A Macro Turning Point Ahead]

After a negatively skewed first quarter, the crypto market is approaching an inflection point, accompanied by selling pressure exhaustion.

The leading cryptocurrency Bitcoin recently recaptured $75K, while many higher beta tokens have ascended by 20%.

Although the sentiment remains cautious, ETF inflows, potential easing or Fed pivot, institutional adoption, and tokenization could spark a new upside.

[Taker Buys Dominant, Indicating New Demand]

CryptoQuant’s native on-chain data shows NEXO-related taker buy volume surging again (green), after a long epoch of taker sell dominance (red). This shift reflects an inflection point, suggesting increasing buyer activity, including whales, institutions, HNWIs, and retail.

In general, taker buy volume measures the amount of market buy orders, meaning takers hitting the ask side aggressively. This indicates buyers are more eager and willing to pay the current (or slightly worse) price to enter positions quickly, rather than waiting with limit orders.

While a sustained increasing taker buy volume has historically preceded or coincided with upward price moves, it also shows stronger investor conviction. From a wider vantage point, the pattern indicates confidence in the NEXO token, and the Nexo ecosystem.

[Nexo as the Tax-Efficient Platform to Access Liquidity]

Why is Nexo so popular among crypto investors? The platform provides an instant credit line, allowing investors to borrow fiat currency or stablecoins without selling their assets.

Nexo’s users keep exposure to potential price appreciation, without selling their portfolio, and gain a tax-efficient access to liquidity.

Written by oinonen_t

XRP trading activity picked up sharply on April 7, with combined volume across major spot and futures exchanges reaching $1.81 billion while the price held above $1.31.

What stands out here is that the increase was visible across both market segments, not just in one area.

That usually matters more, because rising spot volume reflects stronger direct demand, while rising futures volume signals renewed speculative and directional interest.

On the spot side, Binance recorded $221 million in XRP trading volume, followed by Coinbase with $120 million, with additional participation spread across other exchanges.

In futures, Binance led with $792 million, followed by Bybit at $361 million and Coinbase International at $316 million.

In total, the exchanges highlighted here contributed around $341 million in spot volume and $1.47 billion in futures volume, bringing the combined figure to about $1.81 billion.

The clear dominance of futures suggests that leveraged traders were the main force behind the expansion, but the parallel rise in spot volume shows the move was broader than a pure derivatives-driven spike.

If this rise in activity is followed by stronger price continuation, it could signal that XRP is entering a more active trading phase again.

Written by Amr Taha

BTC is still below True Market Mean Price. TMM sits near $78.3K, while the price-to-TMM ratio is around 0.95. That leaves price roughly 5% under this level.

The ratio remains below 1.0. That is improvement, not repair.

The structure is better than it was at the lows. But it is still not strong.

BTC bounced. TMM still sits above price. Recovery is not confirmed 🧸 DYOR

Written by TeddyVision

Based on Binance exchange data, the 14-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) of the Ethereum Taker Buy Sell Ratio has surged to 1.036, reaching its highest level since April 2021. What makes this metric particularly striking is that it is occurring amidst a significant price correction, with Ethereum’s price dropping from its 4,700 USD peak in October 2025 to the current 2,300 USD level.

As highlighted by the arrows on the chart, this dynamic creates a clear and significant bullish divergence. A Taker Buy Sell Ratio above 1 indicates that taker buy volume is actively outpacing taker sell volume. While the broader market trend has been driving the price downward, aggressive buyers on Binance are stepping in, using this dip as a strong accumulation opportunity.

This stark divergence between a declining price and a sharply rising buy-to-sell ratio often signals a potential bottoming phase. It suggests that large entities or “smart money” are absorbing the sell-side liquidity at a discount. If this aggressive buying pressure is sustained, it could exhaust the sellers and set the stage for a strong bullish price reversal for Ethereum in the near future.

Written by CryptoOnchain

Bitcoin is gradually reclaiming some key levels.

For the past three days, BTC has managed to close above the adjusted realized price (excluding 7y+), now sitting at $72,300.

In other words, this represents the average cost basis of the supply currently considered in circulation.

We’ve now reached the average break-even level for a large portion of investors.

Ideally, I’d like to see a weekly close above this level for stronger confirmation, although a rejection here remains possible.

A truly bullish signal would be for Bitcoin to start building a standard deviation above this average cost basis, pushing more investors into profit and encouraging them to hold due to increased conviction.

Looking at previous bear markets, price reactions around this level are quite clear.

When BTC dropped below it, it marked the start of a sustained bear market. Conversely, when it reclaimed it, it signaled the beginning of a bullish trend, with this cost basis acting as support during pullbacks (except during the COVID crash).

The coming days will be critical in confirming a shift back to a more positive trend.

Written by Darkfost