Trend Coin

Bitcoin climbed as high as $79,400 on Friday before pulling back to trade near $76,900 — up 8.8% since midnight UTC and nearly 24% since Monday morning, its strongest weekly advance since March 2023. The rally was kicked off by a US Treasury bond buyback announcement on Wednesday that extended the gains from earlier in the week. Bitcoin has now surpassed the $76,000 level implied by the inverse head-and-shoulders pattern that had been forming since June's $57,750 lows — traders who bought the $66,600 neckline break have made their measured-move target. A total of $3.3 billion in derivatives positions were liquidated on Wednesday and a further $1.25 billion over the past 24 hours per CoinGlass, with shorts accounting for $1.06 billion of the 24-hour total. CryptoQuant's 30-day apparent spot demand has recovered from minus 206,000 BTC on July 23 to roughly minus 5,000 — on the cusp of turning positive for the first time since February 26, a signal that has historically delivered an 18% median gain over the following 60 days with a 78% win rate.

The Treasury Bond Buyback — The Catalyst That Extended the Rally
The US Treasury's bond buyback announcement on Wednesday was the macro catalyst that extended Bitcoin's rally from a technical breakout into a five-day 24% advance. Treasury bond buybacks — where the government repurchases its own outstanding debt — inject liquidity into financial markets by removing long-duration bonds from private sector portfolios and replacing them with cash. The announcement's effect on Bitcoin ran through the same macro chain that has governed price action all summer, but in reverse: Treasury buybacks reduce the supply of long-duration government paper, which reduces the term premium pressure that had driven the 30-year yield to 5.333%, which reduces dollar strength, which removes the financial conditions tightening that has capped Bitcoin since February.
The Dollar Index at 98.77 — down slightly and off its August highs — is the direct expression of the Treasury buyback's dollar impact. DXY below 99 and declining is the macro permission signal that the Scotiabank analysts anticipated when they described short-term USD gains as "a fade." The combination of the Treasury providing liquidity stimulus while September rate hike odds remain at approximately 28-30% — Goldman Sachs's "very unlikely" assessment — creates the maximum-dovish macro configuration that Bitcoin bulls have been waiting for since the correction began in February.

$76,000 Target Cleared — What Comes After the Measured Move
Bitcoin surpassing $76,000 — the inverse head-and-shoulders measured-move target that Tech Charts analyst Aksel Kibar projected from the $66,600 neckline break — is the technical completion event that traders who bought the breakout have been positioning for. The $76,000 target was calculated from the head at $57,750 to the neckline at $66,600 — an $8,850 distance added above the neckline. Bitcoin's high of $79,400 on Friday has exceeded that target by $3,400 — suggesting the breakout's momentum carried beyond the minimum technical objective.
The article correctly identifies the two near-term caution signals that accompany a measured-move completion: the RSI in overbought territory and the potential for traders who bought the $66,600 neckline break to take profits at or above target. RSI overbought readings — typically above 70 — do not reverse trends but do create the conditions for consolidation or pullback before the next leg. Bitcoin pulling back from $79,400 to $76,900 in the same session where it hit the high is consistent with initial profit-taking at the measured-move target, not with a structural reversal of the weekly trend.
The $76,900 current price sits above the CryptoQuant STH realized price of $67,523, the Bitfinex STH cost basis of $68,500, and Strategy's $75,385 average acquisition cost — meaning three of the most important resistance levels that defined the entire bear market have been cleared in a single week. Strategy's accumulation mandate — which required Bitcoin above $75,385 to justify leveraged buying — is now unlocked for the first time since the correction began.

The Short Squeeze Dynamic — 0.865 Long-Short Ratio, Four Days of Wrong Fades
The aggregated long-short accounts ratio at 0.865 — meaning more accounts remain positioned short than long — after four consecutive days of short sellers fading the move and being wrong each time is the most analytically important derivatives signal of the week. In standard market conditions, a sustained rally reduces short positioning as traders capitulate. The persistence of net short accounts through a 24% weekly advance describes a cohort of traders who either have high conviction in a reversal or are unable to exit positions without realizing large losses.
With $3.3 billion liquidated Wednesday and $1.25 billion over the past 24 hours — shorts accounting for $1.06 billion of the 24-hour total — the forced covering that has amplified the rally is not yet complete. An 0.865 long-short ratio with Bitcoin at $76,900 means the remaining short book has already absorbed four days of losses and still hasn't capitulated fully. The fuel for further squeeze pressure remains partly spent but not exhausted — a condition that Kuptsikevich's framework identifies as the self-reinforcing mechanism where each failed short position becomes additional demand.
Predicted funding rates at 0.013% — the highest since January — confirm that futures are pricing the most premium over spot since the bull market peak period. At 0.013%, long holders are paying approximately 14.2% annualized to maintain leveraged positions. That is elevated but not the 20-30% rates that historically signal overleveraged squeeze peaks — suggesting the current funding rate reflects genuine demand rather than a crowded long position requiring imminent deleveraging.
CryptoQuant's Spot Demand Signal — 78% Win Rate, 18% Median Gain
CryptoQuant's 30-day apparent spot demand recovering from minus 206,000 BTC on July 23 to minus 5,000 — on the cusp of turning positive for the first time since February 26 — is the most significant on-chain signal of the rally. The firm's historical analysis shows that when spot demand crosses from negative to positive, Bitcoin has delivered a median 18% gain over the following 60 days with a 78% win rate. The signal improves to 23% median gain and 87% win rate when the cross fires with MVRV below its 365-day moving average — which it currently is.
CryptoQuant's critical caveat is essential: the sample is small and the signal must complete first. A spot demand reading of minus 5,000 is not yet positive — it is approaching the zero line. A reversal from minus 5,000 back toward negative territory before crossing zero would not trigger the historical signal. The rally's sustainability depends specifically on whether the spot bid that emerged behind the short squeeze holds once forced covering stops — the distinction between genuine accumulation-driven demand and liquidation-amplified price appreciation that reverses when the squeeze exhausts itself.
The firm's separation of spot from futures demand adds the critical qualifier: the same zero-cross in perpetual futures demand carries almost no forward edge. The historically strong signal is exclusively a spot demand phenomenon. Friday's short-dominant liquidation picture — $1.06 billion in shorts against $178 million in longs — means the current move is still significantly futures-driven. The spot demand zero-cross completing while futures-driven buying remains elevated would be the maximum-strength confirmation of the signal's historical precedent.
Altcoin Performance — ENA +56% Weekly, LINK +32%, XRP +19%, ZEC +31.5%
The altcoin rally accompanying Bitcoin's weekly advance confirms the capital rotation pattern that the Altcoin Season indicator at 33 — reflecting Bitcoin dominance at 59.9% — partially obscures. Altcoin Season at 33 describes Bitcoin dominating the week's percentage gains at the index level, but individual altcoin performance tells a more nuanced story: ENA's 56% weekly gain following the $1 billion FalconX secured warehouse facility, ZEC's 31.5% weekly gain as privacy tokens caught the broad risk bid, LINK's 32% weekly gain extending the Standard Chartered 2,000% prediction catalyst, and XRP's 19% single-session gain on 139% volume increase and 15.5% OI growth describe genuine altcoin participation rather than pure Bitcoin dominance.
ENA's rally is the most fundamentally grounded: the $1 billion secured warehouse facility with FalconX deploys USDe-backing assets into overcollateralized institutional credit — reducing the protocol's reliance on the crypto basis trade that becomes vulnerable during low-volatility periods. A DeFi protocol reducing its basis-trade dependency at exactly the moment when BVIV has been at multi-year lows is structurally constructive for ENA's yield sustainability regardless of market direction.
The RSI Overbought Warning and What History Says
RSI in overbought territory after a 24% weekly advance is the near-term caution flag that the article correctly identifies. In Bitcoin's history, RSI overbought readings during genuine bull trend initiations — 2020 post-COVID recovery, 2023 post-FTX recovery — have preceded brief consolidations of 5-15% before the next leg higher rather than structural reversals. In false breakout scenarios — 2022 relief rallies within the bear market — RSI overbought readings have coincided with the top of bear market bounces.
The distinction between a genuine recovery initiation and a bear market bounce resolves through the spot demand zero-cross that CryptoQuant identified. If spot demand turns positive while RSI consolidates from overbought levels, the historical pattern argues for continuation. If RSI corrects and spot demand fails to cross zero — reverting to negative — the bear market bounce interpretation gains credibility. At $76,900 with the measured-move target cleared, the RSI overbought warning, and spot demand at minus 5,000, the market is precisely at the inflection point where the two interpretations diverge.

According to Binance Market Data, Bitcoin has crossed the 69,000 USDT benchmark before pulling back to 68500 USDT.

Oil rose as prospects for a lasting agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz remained elusive, while bonds fell on inflation concerns as traders awaited the US jobs report for clues on the path of interest rates, Bloomberg reported. Global benchmark Brent rose 1.1% to $83.40 a barrel amid Middle East tensions, though oil is still down about 5% for the week after declining earlier on hopes for a US-Iran deal. Treasury futures edged lower as higher energy prices revived concerns the Fed may need to keep rates elevated, with the 10-year yield at 4.68% after climbing seven basis points. Asian stocks slipped 0.2%, led by a 1.5% drop in South Korea.According to local media reports, Iran will seek to restrict US and Israeli ships from the strait and require compensation from countries it considers hostile before allowing passage, Bloomberg said. U.S. President Donald Trump, who recently stepped back from threats to resume strikes on Iran, said things are "moving along good." Invesco's David Chao said there is considerable uncertainty around the US labor market and the Fed's path, and investors could be trimming risk before the payrolls print. US data Thursday underscored labor-market resilience, with jobless claims below 200,000 for a third week and productivity accelerating, leaving inflation as the key variable for September. Economists expect employers added 80,000 jobs in July after a weaker 57,000 gain in June. The dollar strengthened against nearly all G-10 peers, while the yen headed into the week's end having surrendered nearly half its intervention-driven gains.