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The cryptocurrency market is down,primarily due to broad investor pessimism over the economy, the re-evaluation of riskier assets, and specific technical factors like the unwinding of leverage and significant outflows from Bitcoin ETFs. This is part of an extended decline that began in October 2025.
Macroeconomic Factors and Market Sentiment
Risk Aversion: Investors are showing a reduced appetite for risk, likely influenced by general economic concerns and a tepid U.S. jobs report earlier this week. This shifts capital away from volatile assets like cryptocurrencies and towards safer investments.Decoupling from Stocks: Although crypto has historically moved in sync with tech stocks, a notable "decoupling" has occurred recently. Major stock indices, like the S&P 500, were up earlier this month, while the crypto market has struggled to find a footing, indicating unique pressures on digital assets.Monetary Policy Uncertainty: Uncertainty surrounding central bank monetary policy, including the potential for a Bank of Japan interest rate hike, is weighing on investors' minds. Higher interest rates typically pull money away from risk assets.
Internal Market Dynamics
ETF Outflows: Investors have pulled more than $5.2 billion from US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs since October 10, 2025, which has dampened market momentum.Whale Selling: After a period of record highs in early October, large holders of Bitcoin ("whales") began selling, keeping pressure on prices and contributing to a broad sell-off.Leverage Unwinding: A significant event in October involved the liquidation of $19 billion worth of leveraged bets, sending markets into a tailspin. The market is still in a phase of digesting this excess leverage.Altcoin Underperformance: Most altcoins are experiencing deeper losses than Bitcoin. Over the past three months, while Bitcoin is down roughly 26% from its peak, sectors like Layer 1s, DeFi, and meme tokens have seen declines of 38% to over 50%, indicating a flight to the relative safety of BTC within the crypto ecosystem.
Price Snapshot
As of today, December 17, 2025, major cryptocurrencies are trading lower:
Bitcoin (BTC): Trading at around $87,703.51 USD, Bitcoin is down for the day and nearly 7% lower for the year.Ethereum (ETH): Has fallen below the $3,000 support level, trading around $2,954.99, a decline of over 5% on the day.XRP (Ripple): Trading at approximately $1.88, extending its decline.
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刚进入加密市场时，
很多人都会以为：
👉 亏钱 = 看错方向
👉 赚钱 = 押中某个币
但真正待久了你会发现——
90% 的第一次大亏，和币本身关系不大。

一、新手最常见的 3 个致命问题：
1️⃣ 重仓第一单
刚注册，账户一充钱，
第一笔就下 50% 甚至 100% 仓位。
行情只要一个回调，心态直接崩。
👉 市场不怕你看错，怕你没子弹。
2️⃣ 不知道什么是“确认”，就急着进场
看到上涨三根 K 线：
“要起飞了！”
看到下跌两根 K 线：
“是不是要归零？”
其实你看到的，只是情绪波动，不是趋势确认。
3️⃣ 完全没有止损概念
很多新手的逻辑是：
只要我不卖，就不算亏。
但市场不会因为你的信念而回头。

二、一个新手必须建立的基础框架（很重要）
你可以先记住这 4 个问题，
每一单进场前，问自己一遍：
① 我这一单是做短线，还是波段？
时间周期不同，看法完全不同。
② 我最多能接受亏多少？
不是“会不会亏”，而是“最多亏多少”。
③ 如果走势和我预期相反，我怎么办？
有没有计划，还是靠情绪。
④ 如果赚了，我什么时候走？
止盈不是靠感觉，是靠规则。

只要你能回答这 4 个问题，
你已经超过一半的新手了。

三、技术分析不是预测未来，而是管理风险
很多人误解技术分析，
以为是“画几根线就能预测走势”。

其实技术分析真正的作用只有一个：
👉 帮你判断“哪里错了要认输”
• 支撑位：错了该走
• 压力位：对了要减
• 成交量：判断真假突破

它不是水晶球，是刹车系统。

四、最后说一句很现实的话
这个市场，
不是奖励最聪明的人，
而是奖励 活得最久、犯错最少的人。

慢一点，
把第一阶段目标定为：
不爆仓、不重伤、还能继续玩。

只要你还在场内，
机会永远比情绪多。
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