The Market Updates
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The Market Updates
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🚨🇮🇷 🇺🇸 Tonight's American strikes reportedly hit NINE Iranian cities, with Khuzestan's oil belt taking the heaviest share.
-The preliminary reported target list runs across four provinces: Khorramshahr, Abadan, Bandar-e Mahshahr and Ahvaz in Khuzestan, Nurabad in Fars, Bushehr, plus Qeshm Island, Bandar Abbas and Sirik in Hormozgan
-Four of the nine sit in Khuzestan, the province holding most of Iran's onshore oil and refining, with Abadan and Mahshahr both major energy hubs
-The Hormozgan names are the campaign's familiar ground, the naval base at Bandar Abbas and the coastal radar and missile sites watching the strait
-CENTCOM launched the wave at 8 p.m. ET, calling it "a powerful response" to Iran's attacks on U.S. forces, without naming locations
Everything here is preliminary and unconfirmed, and no damage assessments have surfaced yet.
Source: CENTCOM
-The preliminary reported target list runs across four provinces: Khorramshahr, Abadan, Bandar-e Mahshahr and Ahvaz in Khuzestan, Nurabad in Fars, Bushehr, plus Qeshm Island, Bandar Abbas and Sirik in Hormozgan
-Four of the nine sit in Khuzestan, the province holding most of Iran's onshore oil and refining, with Abadan and Mahshahr both major energy hubs
-The Hormozgan names are the campaign's familiar ground, the naval base at Bandar Abbas and the coastal radar and missile sites watching the strait
-CENTCOM launched the wave at 8 p.m. ET, calling it "a powerful response" to Iran's attacks on U.S. forces, without naming locations
Everything here is preliminary and unconfirmed, and no damage assessments have surfaced yet.
Source: CENTCOM
🇺🇸 Senator Cynthia Lummis says she doesn't know what else Democrats need to pass the Clarity Act after 11 months of meeting their demands.
🇺🇸 Twitter founder Jack Dorsey has sent a letter urging the US Senate to pass the Crypto Clarity Act.
COIN-3.47%
COINUS+0.66%
🇺🇸🇮🇷🇷🇺 America's strategic oil reserve hit its lowest level since 1983, as Iran war drains the last of the buffer.
That big cliff on the chart? It hit a few years back under President Biden.
They drained nearly 300M barrels from the SPR between 2021/23, the largest release in history, mostly to try to juice gas prices after Russia’s Ukraine invasion, plus a bunch of mandatory congressional sales.
It cratered the reserve from over 600 million barrels down to the 350s, levels not seen since the 1980s.
Those past decisions left the tank half-empty heading into 2026...
Now, with the Iran war disrupting supply, the Trump admin has had to release another 172 million barrels just to keep markets from completely freaking out.
That’s why the U.S. is sitting at ~315 million barrels, the absolute lowest since 1983, with almost no emergency buffer left when people actually need it most.
Source: Bloomberg
That big cliff on the chart? It hit a few years back under President Biden.
They drained nearly 300M barrels from the SPR between 2021/23, the largest release in history, mostly to try to juice gas prices after Russia’s Ukraine invasion, plus a bunch of mandatory congressional sales.
It cratered the reserve from over 600 million barrels down to the 350s, levels not seen since the 1980s.
Those past decisions left the tank half-empty heading into 2026...
Now, with the Iran war disrupting supply, the Trump admin has had to release another 172 million barrels just to keep markets from completely freaking out.
That’s why the U.S. is sitting at ~315 million barrels, the absolute lowest since 1983, with almost no emergency buffer left when people actually need it most.
Source: Bloomberg
🚨BREAKING: $1 Trillion erased from US stocks in 30 minutes after the US 30-year Treasury yield hit a 19-year high of 5.2%, the highest level since 2007.
$1,000,000,000,000 wiped out from US stock market in last 30 minutes as US 30-year bond yield hits a 19-year high.
$600,000,000,000 added to the US stock market in just 15 minutes after Kevin Warsh says the US economy is strong and steady.
AAPLUS+0.19%
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GOOGLUS-0.55%
FOMC STATEMENT:
- Fed holds rates at 3.50%–3.75%.
- Vote: 9–3 to keep rates unchanged.
- 3 Fed officials dissented, calling for a 25 bp rate hike.
- Inflation remains above the Fed's 2% target.
- Economy continues to show solid growth.
- Labor market and productivity remain strong.
- Banking system reserves remain ample.
Overall tone: Hawkish.
- Fed holds rates at 3.50%–3.75%.
- Vote: 9–3 to keep rates unchanged.
- 3 Fed officials dissented, calling for a 25 bp rate hike.
- Inflation remains above the Fed's 2% target.
- Economy continues to show solid growth.
- Labor market and productivity remain strong.
- Banking system reserves remain ample.
Overall tone: Hawkish.
🚨BREAKING🚨
🇺🇸 FED LEAVES RATES UNCHANGED FOR THE 5TH STRAIGHT MEETING.
🇺🇸 FED LEAVES RATES UNCHANGED FOR THE 5TH STRAIGHT MEETING.
🚨 BREAKING
🇺🇸 THE FED WILL OFFICIALLY ANNOUNCE THE INTEREST RATE DECISION TODAY AT 2:00 PM ET!
IF RATE < 3.50% → MARKET GOES PARABOLIC
IF RATE = 3.75% → MARKET STAYS FLAT
IF RATE > 4.00% → MARKET DUMPS HARD
ALL EYES ON THE RELEASE!!
🇺🇸 THE FED WILL OFFICIALLY ANNOUNCE THE INTEREST RATE DECISION TODAY AT 2:00 PM ET!
IF RATE < 3.50% → MARKET GOES PARABOLIC
IF RATE = 3.75% → MARKET STAYS FLAT
IF RATE > 4.00% → MARKET DUMPS HARD
ALL EYES ON THE RELEASE!!
🇺🇸🇮🇷 The Pentagon never told the public how badly U.S. troops got hit in the Iran war...
A FOIA request just spilled it.
New Defense Department records show more than 400 casualties in the first 6 weeks alone, including 17 life-threatening injuries.
The Army took the worst of it, over 270 wounded, with head trauma the most common injury by far.
Some of the ugliest days never made it to the public.
CENTCOM, which only releases monthly totals, quietly sat on the 70 casualties logged on a single day in March.
And since Trump ended the truce this month, 200-plus more casualties and 4 more deaths have piled up, right as the official death toll got quietly revised down from 18 to 14.
Accounting gymnastics can shrink the toll, but there are real bodies on the ground.
Source: The War Horse
A FOIA request just spilled it.
New Defense Department records show more than 400 casualties in the first 6 weeks alone, including 17 life-threatening injuries.
The Army took the worst of it, over 270 wounded, with head trauma the most common injury by far.
Some of the ugliest days never made it to the public.
CENTCOM, which only releases monthly totals, quietly sat on the 70 casualties logged on a single day in March.
And since Trump ended the truce this month, 200-plus more casualties and 4 more deaths have piled up, right as the official death toll got quietly revised down from 18 to 14.
Accounting gymnastics can shrink the toll, but there are real bodies on the ground.
Source: The War Horse
🩸ABSOLUTE BLOODBATH:
$1,000,000,000,000 has now been wiped out from US stock market today.
$1,000,000,000,000 has now been wiped out from US stock market today.
$700,000,000,000 wiped out from the US stock market after President Trump calls for strikes on Iran.
IWMETF+0.11%
QQQETF+0.59%
SPYETF+0.24%
The last Fed decision on June 17 kept rates unchanged.
Even then, Bitcoin dropped to a low of $58,147 over the next 8 days.
Where do you think $BTC goes today?
Even then, Bitcoin dropped to a low of $58,147 over the next 8 days.
Where do you think $BTC goes today?
BIG DAY FOR CRYPTO HOLDERS.
The FOMC interest rate decision drops today at 2 PM ET, followed by Warsh's press conference.
Markets expect a 70.6% chance of a pause, 29.4% chance of a hike.
• If the Fed holds rates and hints at cuts, we pump.
• If the Fed holds but hints at more hikes, we dump.
• If the Fed hikes today, it's over for us.
The FOMC interest rate decision drops today at 2 PM ET, followed by Warsh's press conference.
Markets expect a 70.6% chance of a pause, 29.4% chance of a hike.
• If the Fed holds rates and hints at cuts, we pump.
• If the Fed holds but hints at more hikes, we dump.
• If the Fed hikes today, it's over for us.
MASSIVE: 🇦🇪 Emirates airline which carried 55.6 million passengers in a single year just started accepting crypto.
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