🚨 This is becoming much bigger than a Saudi-Houthi fight.
Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman reportedly called Trump twice on Thursday, urging the U.S. to launch strikes against the Houthis in Yemen.
Trump declined.
According to U.S. officials, Washington wants to keep its military focus on Iran and the Strait of Hormuz rather than opening another direct front in Yemen. The U.S. is instead increasing support for Saudi Arabia.
But here's why I'm watching this closely.
The Houthis have now captured the strategic port city of Mokha and advanced toward the Bab al-Mandab Strait. Reuters reports they have also reached Perim island, which sits directly in this critical shipping chokepoint.
And that creates a very uncomfortable situation for global markets.
Hormuz is already under pressure because of the Iran conflict.
Now Bab al-Mandab is becoming another potential chokepoint.
Two critical shipping routes. One global oil market.
If the Houthis gain meaningful control over Bab al-Mandab, the consequences could extend far beyond Yemen — shipping costs, oil prices, inflation expectations, Treasury yields and eventually risk assets.
Oil has already pushed above $100 as traders price in the possibility of further disruption.
That's why I don't think this is a headline to simply scroll past.
The question I'm watching now:
Can Washington keep this Yemen front contained, or does Bab al-Mandab become the next major global market shock?
August CPI drops today, and I'm leaning bullish into it. Here's my reasoning.
Yes, the setup looks hawkish on paper. Nonfarm payrolls smashed expectations (162K vs ~56K forecast), and yesterday's PPI came in hot at 5.4% annually. That's usually the recipe for “the Fed hikes, risk assets get hit.”
But here's why I'm not worried.
CPI has actually been cooling for two straight months... 3.4% in July, down from 3.5% in June. Even with a hot PPI print, consumer-facing inflation has shown a downward trend, and the Fed's preferred gauge, PCE, tends to matter more to them than a single CPI headline.
My read: even if today's number comes in slightly hot, it likely won't be hot enough to create a much bigger hawkish shock than the market is already pricing in.
And if it comes in in-line or cooler, that's a green light for risk assets, including crypto, going into next week's FOMC meeting.
🧵 Why the "boring" bond market might explain your crypto portfolio's mood this week.
1/ The US 10-year Treasury yield just hit 4.85%, its highest since November 2023.
2/ In simple words: this is the interest rate the government pays to borrow for 10 years. When it rises fast, borrowing gets more expensive across the entire economy, mortgages, credit cards, business loans.
3/ Why now: oil just crossed $101/barrel due to the Iran conflict, stoking inflation fears. The US also has a $2 trillion deficit, and a recent bond buyback announcement disappointed investors expecting more support.
4/ The Dow already dropped 400 points reacting to this.
5/ For crypto: rising yields make "safe" bonds more attractive relative to risk assets. Money sometimes rotates away from BTC/alts when this happens fast.
6/ This doesn't mean panic. It means understanding why price action might feel heavier this week, even without coin-specific news.
$LAPTOP is one of the strangest launches I've seen in a while, and the chart proves it.
quick background: this is Hunter Biden's memecoin, launched on Base, literally named after the infamous 2020 laptop story. 1 billion token supply. 30% held by Biden and founders, locked for six months. 20% airdropped to people who lost money on $TRUMP, plus his Substack subscribers. and the wildest part, 30% of supply is tied to real-world events like "does Bitcoin hit a new all-time high" or "does LAPTOP's valuation beat TRUMP's" — burned or sent to charity depending on the outcome.
now look at the chart. this thing spiked to over $315 within the first hour, then crashed to $0.108, and is now sitting at $0.647. that's not a stable asset finding its footing, that's pure chaos price discovery on a coin that launched with basically zero trading history to anchor it.
and here's the part that actually matters if you're thinking about touching this: multiple copycat LAPTOP tokens are already circulating on other chains that have nothing to do with the real Base launch. even Coinbase's own Base team has publicly distanced themselves, saying anyone can deploy a token on Base without their approval, there's no partnership here.
before anyone even considers this: verify the actual contract, check founder wallet unlocks, and understand that a ticker matching a headline means nothing about legitimacy.
this is a story to watch, not necessarily a trade to chase.
Guys... do you know why the crypto market is red today? 👀
It’s not just random selling.
🇺🇸 US PPI came in hot:
Headline 5.4% vs 5.3% expected Core 4.6% vs 4.6% expected
The bigger problem? Markets are now pricing around a 70% chance of a Fed hike next week, while oil is back above $100. That combination is putting pressure on risk assets.
The good part? Core monthly inflation wasn't a major surprise.