Hesabpay

Bitcoin is now perfectly mirroring the pattern from 2017 and 2021.

History is repeating itself, everything going according to my plan:

The bull trap is now over, and $BTC will bottom out at $28,000 before the next bull run.

Scenario 1:
→ $48K within days

Scenario 2:
→ $28K by August

Are you actually prepared for that scenario?

$BTC A lot of people are asking how I landed on $42K to $47K as my target for this cycle’s $BTC low and thought I’d share it publicly

Bitcoin has always went below its average buy price (Realized Price - Market Price) / Realized Price) each bear market

Here’s the data from previous cycles:
- 2011 to 2012 cycle: dropped 61% below the average buy price
- 2014 to 2015 cycle: dropped 45% below
- 2018 to 2019 cycle: dropped 30% below
- 2022: dropped around 24–30% below

As you can see, from cycle-to-cycle the drop is lower and lower

If you assume the following drops from average buy price this cycle, you will see the following:
- 10% drop = $47.4K
- 15% drop = $44.8K
- 20% drop = $42.1K
- 25% drop = $39.5K
- 30% drop = $36.9K

Assuming it only goes 10% to 20% below is how I got my figures

But here’s the thing, people have experienced a few cycles and now understand more how Bitcoin has historically behaved so this all may get front runned

Also since Bitcoin became significantly more institutional - it’s been trading along the stock market on red days so if you also think the stock market will correct until the midterm elections like it historically has, then we may see the scenario above play out (at least getting to the realized buy price)

Buying here at $60K is also not a bad idea to start a DCA as a hedge

I’m personally starting a DCA here of 2% of my capital per week and expecting we range in the $60K’s for 16-20 weeks before the next move up or down

GLHF remember the goal is to get close to the bottom not try and time it exactly

Last point - I don’t think “the low” happens in Q4, most likely from June to September (end of Q2 or Q3)

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这单要是拿住不得起飞！定力还是得练，玩主流，山寨都是垃圾！