Liz Ann Sonders Re-poster
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Liz Ann Sonders Re-poster
Chief Investment Strategist, Schwab Center for Financial Research.
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Based on the latest updates from @adpresearch, private payrolls have shown continued improvement by growing for a third consecutive week. Over the four-week timeframe concluding on Aug. 22, the private sector successfully added an average of 12,000 jobs.
During August, a declining outlook regarding general business conditions acted as the primary driver behind the drop in overall small business optimism. @NFIB
For the week ending 9/4/26, bond exchange-traded funds clearly drove market activity. The most significant capital additions were observed in government and aggregate bond ETFs. In contrast, funds tracking large cap equities encountered substantial withdrawals over the same period.
@DataArbor
@DataArbor
This past August, outstanding non-revolving consumer credit, a category that typically includes auto and student loans, climbed to $15.3B. This notable surge represents the most significant advance the sector has seen in three years.
According to the most recent @NewYorkFed survey, there has been a noticeable increase in the proportion of consumers who anticipate they will be unable to meet their minimum debt obligations. Over the upcoming three months, the share of individuals expecting to fall short on these payments has climbed by more than 2 percentage points.
According to the @NewYorkFed Survey of Consumer Expectations, public forecasts for commodity price growth over the upcoming year saw a universal increase during August. The most substantial leap was observed in gas, with expectations reaching 4.6%, up from 2.9% in July.
Let us take a look at the recent performance of market sectors and indexes, including the results from yesterday as well as the MTD and YTD figures.
An overview of market index declines alongside the percentage of equities beating the benchmark
The proportion of equities within each industry category that are currently reaching their 4w and 52w peak price levels.
A visual overview of MA breadth
During July, month-over-month consumer credit experienced a substantial rise of $18.1B, which was primarily fueled by an expansion in non-revolving credit. This growth comfortably exceeded the expected estimate of $11.3B and also outpaced the prior figure of $14.6B.
We have recently seen a narrowing spread between equity earnings yields and bond yields as United States government bond yields have climbed. Interestingly, this compression is not an isolated event exclusive to the American market. Even though the United States might feature a tighter spread compared to alternative regions, this exact same pattern is currently unfolding across multiple developed markets. You can view a selected group of these markets in the information provided below.
@SPGlobal
@SPGlobal
For the month of August, the latest insights from the @NewYorkFed indicate a slight easing in the general outlook on future prices. The median inflation expectations for the upcoming one-year period decreased to +3.58%, falling from the previous recording of 3.63%. Looking a bit further down the road, the three-year median expectations experienced a similar downward trend, landing at +3.19% as opposed to the prior rate of 3.26%.
Just last week, the average cost of diesel climbed to a historic high. Overall, prices have surged by more than 60% since the beginning of the year.
Based on the latest update from @NFIB, small businesses identified the quality of labor as their biggest ongoing challenge in August. However, this top concern actually experienced a decrease of 4 percentage points when compared to July. Coming in a tie for the second most pressing problem were inflation and taxes.
For the month of August, the @NFIB Small Business Optimism index experienced a decrease, settling at 98.7. This recent figure fell short of the anticipated estimate of 99.3 and marks a drop from the previous reading of 99.8. Nevertheless, it is encouraging to note that the index continues to stay higher than the historical long-term average of 98.0.
The percentage of equities reaching their 4-week and 52-week peaks, broken down by market sector.
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