CryptoQuant Quicktake

The latest data shows the Bitcoin supply in profit reaching a multi-year low of 10.7M, while BTC's price has declined significantly from its recent peaks. This contraction is notable because supply in profit has broken cleanly below both the Threshold of Optimism/Pessimism and the Liquidity Accumulation band, now hovering under the green dashed Bottom Discovery line. The data indicates that a vast portion of the supply has shifted underwater, reducing the immediate incentive for remaining holders to sell at a loss. Such behavior historically reflects late-stage market capitulation.
Bitcoin's supply in profit has shown a consistent cyclical pattern tightly aligned with major market pivots. Now it has dropped to 10.7 million BTC, indicating that an increasing percentage of the total circulating supply has plunged to unrealized losses. In contrast to the asset's long-term upward trajectory, the supply in profit has experienced significant volatility, expanding during bull runs and contracting sharply during corrections. The dramatic reset in profitable supply suggests that short-term speculators have been largely washed out, leaving the network's ownership concentrated among high-conviction holders.
Looking ahead, the compression of the supply in profit toward the Bottom Discovery band could become a bullish factor for Bitcoin if demand begins to recover. Low volume of supply in profit historically signals a macro floor, which can amplify price movements when buying pressure returns due to a lack of remaining sell-side liquidity. However, entering these lower bands alone does not guarantee an immediate price recovery, as broader macroeconomic conditions, global liquidity, and institutional inflows will continue to influence price action. If the supply in profit stabilizes near the Bottom Discovery threshold while accumulation continues, Bitcoin may be building a stronger foundation for the next market cycle once selling pressure subsides.
Written by EgyHash

Data from CryptoQuant shows that Exchange In-House Transactions on Binance have currently declined to around 751 transactions, significantly lower than during previous periods of high volatility.
This metric reflects internal transfer activity within the exchange. When in-house transactions decline, it often suggests that liquidity restructuring or internal exchange activity is cooling down.
It does not directly confirm buying or selling pressure, but it shows that the Binance market is no longer seeing strong internal transfer activity like during previous periods of stress.
With price still trading around a weak zone, this data suggests that the market is in a quieter state rather than entering a phase of explosive activity.
Written by Rei Researcher

Data shows that Long-Term Holders continue to record positive LTH Supply Inflow, currently around 385K BTC based on EMA(30), after a prolonged period of strong distribution.
This suggests that part of the $BTC supply is moving back into the hands of long-term holders, reflecting that selling pressure from the LTH group has eased significantly compared to late 2025.
Rising LTH accumulation is a positive signal for supply structure, but to confirm a more sustainable recovery, accumulation flows need to remain stable while price holds support and spot capital flows improve.
Written by Rei Researcher

Data from the Binance ETH Volume Z-Score (30d) shows a significant decline, with the indicator falling to its lowest level in two months. This suggests weak trading activity compared to the 30-day average. According to the data, the index recorded a reading of approximately -1.14, reflecting a noticeable decline in trader participation on the Binance platform, while Ethereum was trading near $1,800. This decline follows a period of heightened volatility, during which trading volumes surged before returning to more subdued levels.
A drop in the Z-Score typically indicates a period of market caution and anticipation, as momentum weakens and liquidity declines, potentially preceding a significant price move in either direction. Therefore, the indicator's persistence at these low levels may suggest that investors are waiting for new catalysts, such as economic data releases, ETF-related developments, or updates to the Ethereum network.
However, a decline in trading volume is not inherently a bearish signal. Instead, it should be interpreted alongside price action and other technical indicators. If low trading volume is accompanied by price stability, it may indicate an accumulation phase before the next market move. Conversely, if it coincides with a break below key support levels, it could increase the likelihood of continued selling pressure.
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Written by Arab Chain

BTC has entered a chopsolidation phase that's generating waves of doubt, and sometimes outright capitulation, among investors. This is especially true for traders adding leverage in hopes of profiting from the current low volatility.
The problem is that the market keeps severely punishing those who take on too much risk, and Open Interest gives us a clear window into this. On this chart, Binance's Open Interest is expressed in Bitcoin value rather than dollars, which neutralizes the impact of BTC's price on its valuation.
Since the start of the year, two notable episodes stand out clearly, late January and early June. In the first, Open Interest on Binance rose from 104,000 to 130,000 BTC over the span of a month and a half, while price moved in a perfectly sideways range.
The second episode followed the same pattern, with an increase of nearly 53,000 BTC over three months.
Note that today, Binance accounts for nearly 35% of total Open Interest.
What's particularly interesting is that each of these accumulation phases preceded the start of a new bearish leg, which then liquidated a good portion of the Open Interest that had built up. In both cases, within just two weeks, Open Interest wiped out 36,000 and 35,000 BTC respectively.
Part of this decline is obviously due to voluntary position closures. But overall, it's the corrections that are driving these liquidations, especially since funding rates on Binance had largely turned back positive at the same time.
These elements suggest that some traders are trying to time the market, or chasing every uptick out of fear of missing a bullish reversal. For now, trading against the trend and adding leverage in such an uncertain market isn't working out well for them. And as they often say in the markets, you take the stairs up and the elevator down.
Written by Darkfost

Bitcoin wallets holding between 100 and 1,000 BTC recorded net distribution of about 67,000 BTC on July 13, the cohort’s strongest selling activity since February 19, when distribution reached roughly 47,000 BTC.
The latest reading marks a sharp reversal from April 25, when the same group accumulated more than 92,000 BTC.
This represents a behavioral swing of over 159,000 BTC, shifting from aggressive accumulation to the deepest distribution seen in nearly five months.
At the same time, exchange inflows from mid-sized investors have weakened across major trading venues.
Binance received about 2,800 BTC on July 13, below the 3,280 BTC recorded on June 19.
Coinbase Prime inflows stood near 1,690 BTC, close to the 1,560 BTC level seen on June 22, while
Coinbase Advanced recorded around 3,170 BTC, above its June 22 reading of 2,170 BTC but still lower than recent local peaks.
The divergence is notable: the 100–1,000 BTC cohort is distributing heavily, yet inflows to Binance and Coinbase are not expanding at the same pace.
Historically, extreme accumulation by this cohort appeared near local Bitcoin price highs in January and April 2026, while the strong distribution recorded after February 19 was followed by a price rebound.
The current signal does not confirm a market bottom, but it places Bitcoin near another historically significant shift in mid-sized investor behavior.
Written by Amr Taha

The crypto market is no longer driven mainly by retail investors. With the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs and growing participation from institutions, investment decisions are increasingly based on data rather than price movements alone.
Professional investors analyze on-chain activity, ETF fund flows, macroeconomic conditions, stablecoin liquidity, and derivatives positioning to understand how capital moves through the market. The focus has shifted from predicting prices to understanding market structure.
This transformation will accelerate as Real World Assets (RWAs) and Security Tokens (STs) become more widely adopted. Investors will need to evaluate not only digital assets but also the underlying businesses and real-world assets they represent, such as real estate, bonds, and infrastructure.
At xWIN, we believe future investment success will depend less on forecasting prices and more on interpreting data that reveals how markets are evolving.
One useful on-chain indicator is the Exchange Whale Ratio, which measures the share of Bitcoin deposited to exchanges by large holders ("whales"). A higher ratio may indicate increased potential selling pressure, while a declining ratio can suggest that large investors are reducing exchange deposits, often improving market sentiment.
As blockchain-based finance expands, understanding market structure—not simply watching price charts—will become one of the most important skills for investors.
Written by XWIN Japan

Observation
Recent on-chain data reveals a massive, coordinated withdrawal of Bitcoin across major global exchanges. Over the past 7 days, overall exchange netflows dropped 172% against their recent baseline. This physical withdrawal trend is universal: Coinbase netflows plunged by 434%, Upbit by an astonishing 2,004%, and Binance by 192%. Yet, despite this severe extraction of spot supply, price remains compressed. The reason lies in the fiat-liquidity side of the equation: we are simultaneously witnessing a massive structural spike in stablecoin supply being burned.
Context
Usually, when Bitcoin leaves US (Coinbase), Asian (Upbit), and offshore (Binance) exchanges simultaneously, it points to a globally coordinated accumulation and transition to cold storage. However, the price isn’t responding with an immediate markup because purchasing power is being actively destroyed. The massive spike in stablecoin_supply_burned combined with deeply negative stablecoin netflows (-$169M average) indicates that fiat-equivalent liquidity is exiting the crypto ecosystem entirely.
Comparison
This setup presents a rare macro tug-of-war. Unlike previous weeks where the narrative was dominated by derivatives or legacy holder distribution, the current structure is purely spot-driven. On one side, physical inventory is becoming increasingly scarce globally; on the other side, the capital required to push prices higher is temporarily drying up.
Potential Outcome
A market environment characterized by rapidly shrinking exchange reserves and simultaneously contracting stablecoin liquidity typically creates a highly illiquid, compressed state. Historically, these conditions form a coiled spring. Once macroeconomic factors shift and new stablecoin minting resumes, the drastically reduced exchange supply could amplify the next directional move, potentially favoring the upside due to the underlying spot scarcity.
Written by CryptoOnchain

Observation
Between July 4 and July 9, OGN experienced an unusually active stretch on-chain. Daily trading volume jumped to as high as 667.8M on July 4—roughly 7–10× the typical daily range of 20–90M seen over the prior weeks—while transferred token volume for that day reached 430M tokens, several multiples above the recent norm. Price briefly touched a high of $0.024 that day before settling back near $0.017 by July 10, giving back most of the initial move.
Context
This wasn’t a single-day event. Elevated volumes persisted through July 5, 6, and 8, and token velocity climbed steadily across the period, reaching 36.83 by July 11—the highest reading in the past six months. Interestingly, Binance exchange netflows during this stretch were inconsistent in direction, swinging between -13.2M (July 9) and +5.4M (July 6). This erratic pattern looks less like coordinated whale movement and more like fragmented, two-sided market activity.
Comparison
What stands out is that network engagement metrics—active addresses, senders, and receivers—are up sharply across all timeframes (active addresses +102% vs. the 3-month baseline, receivers +120%), while inflow concentration among the top 10 depositors remains only moderately above the overall average. This suggests the surge involved a broader base of participants rather than a handful of large actors, even as price itself has largely round-tripped and remains down close to 16% versus the 3-month baseline.
Potential Outcome
A setup where velocity hits multi-month highs and address activity broadens, even as price fails to hold its initial spike, has historically coincided with periods of re-accumulation following speculative bursts. Whether this translates into sustained demand likely depends on whether exchange flows settle into a consistent direction over the coming days.
Written by CryptoOnchain

Binance is holding one of the most extreme liquidity imbalances visible in this cycle.
The Bitcoin/Stablecoin Reserve Ratio has fallen to the lowest level in the series, meaning that the amount of BTC held on Binance is exceptionally small relative to the stablecoin capital parked on the exchange. Beneath price, this reveals a widening asymmetry between potential purchasing power and the BTC inventory available to absorb it.
That imbalance matters because Binance holds roughly $43B in stablecoins, close to 70% of all stablecoin reserves across centralized exchanges, while accounting for only around 8–9% of exchange-held Bitcoin.
Most of the market’s immediately deployable dollar liquidity is therefore concentrated on a venue with a comparatively limited share of BTC supply.
The broader picture is more nuanced.
Total stablecoin reserves across exchanges have declined from roughly $76B to $61.6B, showing that the global liquidity buffer available on trading venues has contracted.
This does not necessarily mean the market is illiquid, but it does mean less capital is sitting inside exchanges ready to react immediately.
This creates a market defined by scarce visible BTC supply, concentrated dry powder and investors who still appear reluctant to deploy it.
The capital exists, but it remains defensive rather than aggressive.
Traders may be waiting for deeper capitulation, wider discounts or clearer evidence that forced selling has been exhausted before rotating stablecoins into Bitcoin.
If another wave of selling pushes BTC into a more attractive valuation zone, the stablecoin capital sitting on Binance could become the fuel for a sharp response. But if exchange stablecoin reserves continue to fall without converting into spot demand, the market’s liquidity cushion will keep thinning.
The key question is no longer whether capital is available, but what level of pain will finally force it out of the trenches.
Written by MorenoDV_

The on-chain data is sending a clear signal that most analysts are ignoring.
Bitcoin's Exchange-to-Exchange Flow collapsed from 1,800 BTC on June 14 to just 165.7 BTC on July 12, a 91% drop in 30 days. That is not a random market fluctuation. The timing aligns precisely with one of the most significant regulatory events in European crypto history.
On July 1, 2026, Binance officially lost its operating license across the EU and EEA under MiCA regulations. What followed was predictable in hindsight but largely missed by the market in real time. European retail traders — who represented a significant portion of Binance's most active user base — began migrating to compliant exchanges in the weeks before the deadline. That migration created the June 14 spike to 1,800 BTC as users moved their holdings between platforms at scale.
The moment the ban took effect and the migration was complete, the flows collapsed. By July 12 we are sitting at 165.7 BTC — one of the lowest readings in recent history.
This is not just a data point. It is a direct explanation for why Bitcoin has struggled to break above $65K since July 1 despite multiple attempts. The buying pressure that was supporting price at those levels came largely from European retail activity on Binance. Remove that participant base overnight and you remove a meaningful source of demand from the market.
The recovery signal to watch is exchange-to-exchange flow returning above 800 to 1,000 BTC per day consistently. That will confirm that European liquidity has fully resettled into compliant exchanges like Bitvavo, Kraken, and Coinbase EU. When that happens the market will have a new foundation to push higher.
Until then the data points to continued consolidation between $60K and $65K. Not panic. Not capitulation. Just a market waiting for its liquidity to find a new home.
The data does not lie. Watch the flows.
Written by Zakariya Sharif

In the previous article, we explained how today's cross-border payment system relies on SWIFT and correspondent banks, and why stablecoins are emerging as a new settlement infrastructure.
The strongest supporters of this shift are not crypto companies—they are global payment leaders such as Visa, Mastercard, PayPal, and Stripe.
These companies are not simply card providers. Their real business is operating the global networks that move money securely and efficiently. If stablecoins can make international payments faster, cheaper, and available 24/7, adopting the technology is a natural business decision.
Visa is already expanding USDC settlement capabilities, Mastercard is partnering with stablecoin providers, and Stripe is investing heavily in stablecoin-based payment solutions for global businesses.
On-chain data supports this trend. Active addresses for major ERC-20 stablecoins have increased dramatically since 2025, showing that stablecoins are increasingly being used for cross-border payments, business settlements, DeFi, and digital asset transactions—not just crypto trading.
Banks are unlikely to disappear. Instead, they will continue providing trust, compliance, and credit, while blockchains become the infrastructure for transferring value. The future is not "banks versus blockchain," but banks using blockchain more effectively.
At XWIN, we believe the real competition is no longer about who issues stablecoins, but who can design complete financial services around them. Payments alone are not enough. Businesses need integrated solutions covering wallets, KYC, AML, accounting, taxation, and asset management.
Japan has also entered this new era with projects such as JPYC and JPYSC. We look forward to seeing Japanese stablecoins compete alongside global leaders as the next generation of financial infrastructure continues to evolve.
Written by XWIN Japan

Bitcoin’s Composite Index v2.0 is signaling market-regime normalization, but reset depth remains shallow relative to prior cycle bottoms.
The current Composite Ratio is near 0.484: below the elevated composite-risk zone, yet still materially above prior cycle-bottom reset troughs.
Earlier troughs were far lower: close to zero or slightly negative near the January 2015 bottom, around 0.05 near the December 2018 bottom, and around 0.13 during the November 2022 stress phase.
Key takeaway:
Partial reset — normalization has started, but the current reading has not matched prior cycle-bottom trough depth.
Written by Zizcrypto

Bitcoin’s Composite Index v2.0 is a normalized market-regime indicator that integrates valuation, profitability, derivatives, and price-structure inputs.
The latest Composite Ratio is near 0.484.
At the current reading, the ratio sits below the elevated composite-risk zone, but remains materially above prior reset troughs from major cycle bottoms.
At those prior reset troughs, readings were significantly lower: close to zero or slightly negative near the January 2015 bottom, around 0.05 near the December 2018 bottom, and around 0.13 during the November 2022 stress phase.
That is the main distinction. The current reading reflects normalization and a partial reset, but it has not reached the depth seen near prior macro bottoms.
Key takeaway:
BTC’s Composite Index points to a partial reset — normalization without reaching prior macro-bottom trough depth.
Source: CryptoQuant
Written by Zizcrypto

Today’s BTC on-chain data looks closer to neutral than aggressively bullish or bearish. Exchange selling pressure has not expanded sharply, while derivatives leverage appears to be cooling.
Exchange Netflow turned slightly positive on July 11 at +127.45, after -432.25 the previous day. However, the 7-day total remains deeply negative at -10,274.19, so this does not yet confirm a sustained rise in exchange-side selling pressure.
Funding Rates fell to 0.004945 from 0.007781. They remain positive, meaning long bias is still present, but leverage overheating has eased compared with the prior day.
Open Interest stood near $21.83B, down about 0.13% day over day. Since OI had risen roughly 4.59% over the past 3 days, this looks more like a pause in leveraged positioning than a full unwind.
Supplementary NUPL data, updated through July 10, rose to 0.1730 from 0.1601. Unrealized profit conditions are improving, but the data does not support calling this an excessive greed zone yet.
Today’s evidence leans slightly toward neutral-to-constructive rather than a strong buy signal. This view would weaken if Netflow shifts into repeated large inflows, or if Funding and Open Interest rise together while price response stays weak.
In summary, exchange flows remain broadly supportive despite today’s small inflow. Funding cooled, reducing short-term leverage risk. Tomorrow, I will watch whether Netflow returns to outflows, and whether Funding and Open Interest start heating up again.
Written by CoinNiel

Observation
Between July 4 and July 8, Binance recorded an exceptional surge in XRP spot activity, culminating in 64.9M XRP of inflows versus 49.2M XRP of outflows on July 7. Importantly, this burst of exchange activity did not initiate the derivatives unwind—it occurred against a backdrop of persistent deleveraging. Binance Open Interest had already declined from above $500M in mid-June to $431M by July 4, before slipping further to $399M by July 10. During the same period, long liquidations surged 94% week-over-week (+172% relative to the three-month average), while short liquidations contracted by 53%.
Context
The magnitude of the spot flows points to aggressive capital repositioning rather than fresh directional conviction. Meanwhile, the ongoing decline in Open Interest suggests that leveraged exposure has continued to leave the market. The notable shift instead comes from funding dynamics. After briefly turning negative in late June, Binance funding rates rebounded sharply, climbing 266% week-over-week to 0.007. This divergence—rising funding alongside falling Open Interest and elevated long liquidations—implies that new long positions are paying increasingly higher premiums despite a derivatives market that continues to contract.
Comparison
On-chain activity presents a more balanced picture than the derivatives market. Active addresses remain 11% below their three-month baseline, indicating that broad network participation has yet to fully recover. However, transaction counts have increased by roughly 3–4% over both the past week and month, despite remaining 21% below their three-month average. At the same time, the NVT ratio has eased, suggesting that network utilization may be stabilizing rather than continuing its previous deterioration.
Potential Outcome
A market characterized by persistent long liquidations, rising funding rates, and a shrinking derivatives base has historically been vulnerable to funding-rate resets. Whether a similar adjustment
Written by CryptoOnchain

Stablecoins such as USDT and USDC are often viewed as just another type of cryptocurrency. In reality, they are becoming part of a new global payment infrastructure.
Most cross-border payments are not made by individuals but by businesses. Every day, companies around the world pay suppliers, manufacturers, and business partners across borders. These transactions support global trade.
Today, international payments mainly rely on SWIFT and correspondent banking. SWIFT is a secure messaging network that sends payment instructions—it does not move the money itself. The actual funds are transferred through a network of correspondent banks, which can increase costs, settlement time, and dependence on banking hours.
Stablecoins offer a different approach. Instead of routing payments through multiple intermediary banks, value can be transferred directly on blockchain networks, operating 24/7 across borders. While regulatory compliance, KYC, and accounting remain essential, the payment infrastructure itself is fundamentally different.
This shift is reflected in the rapid growth of stablecoins. Since 2020, the circulating supply of major ERC-20 stablecoins has expanded dramatically, reaching well over $100 billion. These digital dollars are increasingly used for international settlements, treasury management, DeFi, Web3 applications, and as a store of value in countries facing high inflation.
At xWIN, we believe this is far more than a cryptocurrency trend. It represents a structural transformation in how value moves globally. Just as email changed communication, blockchain-based payment networks are reshaping cross-border finance. The future is unlikely to be a choice between banks and stablecoins. Instead, both systems will coexist and complement each other, creating a faster, more efficient global financial infrastructure.
Written by XWIN Japan

• The last time Bitcoin’s market price traded near the Realized Price of Old Whales after an ATH was during June-December 2022.
Written by Facundo Fama

• As can be observed, for now, Bitcoin remains in a macro bearish trend.
• Data source: CryptoQuant.
Written by Facundo Fama

After a brief return of aggressive buying, Bitcoin’s order flow has turned negative again, suggesting the latest recovery still lacks the conviction needed to support a sustained uptrend.
One of the clearest shifts beneath Bitcoin’s recent price action can be found in Net Taker Volume, a metric that measures whether aggressive market orders are dominated by buyers or sellers.
Following the late-May breakdown, the indicator remained in negative territory for more than a month, revealing persistent selling pressure as market participants repeatedly sold into rallies rather than chased higher prices. This wasn’t just a short-lived sentiment shift, it reflected a market regime where aggressive sellers consistently controlled the order flow.
At the beginning of July, however, the picture briefly changed.
Net Taker Volume flipped positive for the first time in weeks, suggesting buyers were once again willing to cross the spread and regain control of the market. While this coincided with Bitcoin’s rebound from local lows, the signal proved short-lived.
Since July 7, the metric has moved back into negative territory, indicating that the recovery failed to attract sustained aggressive demand. In other words, buyers showed up, but not for long enough to establish a durable shift in market control.
The encouraging aspect is that today’s negative readings remain far less extreme than those seen during June’s capitulation. This suggests the market is no longer experiencing panic-driven selling. Instead, it appears to be entering a transition phase where aggressive selling has eased, yet aggressive buying is still insufficient to confirm a stronger trend reversal.
What to watch:
A sustained return to positive Net Taker Volume would signal that aggressive demand is finally re-entering the market. Until then, the current rebound remains vulnerable to renewed selling pressure and should be viewed as a recovery still searching for confirmation.
Written by MorenoDV_