CryptoQuant Quicktake

Once again, Bitcoin’s supply–demand imbalance is being resolved through downward price pressure.

I have consistently raised concerns about overheating in the imbalance indicators, both when prices were above the $100,000 level and during the current consolidation phase.

When the market lacks real and sustained buying liquidity,

these imbalances have little choice but to be corrected through a price-driven pullback.

That process is now underway.

However, the imbalance has not yet been fully cleared,

and it appears that further adjustment and time will be needed before the market fully resets.

Written by Mignolet

Bitcoin Drops Below True Market Mean Price for the First Time Since October 21, 2023

1. What is True Market Mean Price?

True Market Mean Price shows Bitcoin's average "real" value throughout its entire history.

Think of it this way: What would be the average cost of everyone who has ever bought Bitcoin? That's exactly what this level shows.

When Bitcoin price is above this level → Market is healthy, most buyers are in profit, bull trend is strong.

When Bitcoin price drops below this level → Market is weakening, most investors are at a loss, bears are gaining strength.

Currently, this level is around 80K.

2. Bears Are Gaining Strength

In the previous bull cycle, Bitcoin made a weekly close below True Market Mean Price in May 2022, and the bear season became official. Afterwards, Bitcoin continued to decline for 7 months until finding its bottom, dropping from 36K to 15K.

Conclusion

Bitcoin closed below TMMP on the first trading day of February. This clearly shows that bears are gaining strength in Bitcoin.

I can't predict where Bitcoin will find its bottom, but it seems likely that downward pressure and consolidation will continue over the next 3-6 months. We might experience a gradual decline and bottom-seeking process similar to 2022.

Patience and risk management are more critical than ever.

Written by burakkesmeci

The Ethereum: Transfer Count (Total), smoothed by a 14-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), reached a significant peak of 1.17 million on January 29, 2026. This vertical spike in network activity raises a crucial question for the market: Is a correction imminent?

Historical Context:

A retrospective analysis of the chart reveals an undeniable pattern. This specific magnitude of surge in transfer counts has occurred during two critical pivot points in Ethereum’s history:

January 18, 2018: A massive spike in transfers marked the cycle top, immediately preceding the onset of a prolonged bear market.

May 19, 2021: A similar sharp increase coincided with a major market crash and significant price correction.

On-Chain Interpretation:

While high network activity often signifies adoption, a sudden “parabolic” rise in transfer counts near price highs typically indicates an overheated network. This metric often spikes during moments of extreme market capitulation or euphoria. It suggests that a large volume of assets is moving, potentially indicating:

Distribution: Smart money or long-term holders moving funds to exchanges to realize profits.

Peak Volatility: A climax in trading activity that often marks a local top.

Conclusion:

The current scenario bears a striking resemblance to the setups seen in 2018 and 2021. While the macro environment changes, the on-chain behavior of network participants suggests we are in a zone of high risk. If history repeats itself, the probability of an ETH price drawdown has increased significantly. Traders should exercise caution and monitor for further confirmation signals.

Written by CryptoOnchain

The Bitcoin market has entered a phase where supply formed near recent highs is being tested following a post-uptrend correction. The focus is no longer the price level itself, but how holders behave around zones where acquisition costs are concentrated. While bearish pressure is conditionally dominant, this does not yet indicate a breakdown of the broader market structure. Rather than an early bear market, the current phase is best described as a corrective period in which resilience and conviction are being assessed.

Over the past month, price declined from around $108,000 to approximately $73,000, a drop of about 32%. As a result, the share of supply in profit fell from 78% to 56%, leaving roughly 44% of total supply in unrealized loss. This is significant because a large portion of coins was acquired near recent highs, meaning many holders have rapidly shifted from comfortable unrealized gains to prices near or below their cost basis.

In this environment, the key question over the coming weeks to months is whether these holders choose to sell or continue holding. Unrealized losses alone do not imply immediate capitulation, but rebound phases are structurally prone to increased sell pressure.

On-chain data shows Bitcoin’s Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) has declined to around 0.29. While the market remains net profitable, this level indicates a much thinner psychological buffer compared with prior strong bull phases. Historically, as NUPL approaches zero, sentiment resilience tends to be tested before price itself.

At present, the base scenario remains a corrective phase focused on testing high-cost supply. However, if selling pressure fails to materialize and on-chain indicators stabilize or improve, this view would need to be reassessed.

Written by XWIN Research Japan

Binance CVD has been in a persistent downtrend for nearly six months, indicating that market sell orders have consistently outweighed market buy orders. This structure reflects ongoing long position closures and an increase in aggressive market sell activity across derivatives markets.

On Binance, Derivatives CVD has declined to approximately -$38 billion, highlighting an extreme and sustained wave of market sell pressure. This suggests that selling aggression remains elevated and that the market has yet to reach a clear equilibrium.

Looking across other major exchanges:

- OKX: Derivatives CVD stands near -$1.5 billion, indicating continued selling pressure, albeit less severe than on Binance.

- HTX: CVD has stabilized around -$200 million. Market sell and market buy orders appear to be balanced. Since the November low, selling pressure has subsided, allowing price to consolidate. As Bitcoin trades near $74,000, HTX has shifted into a market buy–dominant structure.

- Bybit: CVD is currently flat around $100 million. However, December saw an extremely aggressive market sell wave, with CVD collapsing from +$163 million to -$230 million, signaling rapid position liquidation.

- BitMEX: CVD is hovering around -$400 million and continues to trend lower.

- Deribit: Although Deribit recovered earlier than other exchanges during November, it began triggering renewed market sell pressure in December. At present, no constructive structure is visible, with CVD continuing to decline near -$1.2 billion.

Overall, Binance has accumulated substantial positions through sustained market sell pressure. The aggressive sell-side activity observed on Bybit and Deribit suggests that a significant portion of leveraged positions has been fully unwound. This environment may indicate that Bitcoin is approaching a transitional phase in the coming weeks.

Historically, periods of extreme fear and forced selling often coincide with the emergence of long-term opportunity.

Written by BorisD

Short dominance in the market is intensifying.

BTC funding rates on Binance have now moved deeply into negative territory, currently at -0.0045.

This is an interesting signal, as it points to an excess.

However, it is important to properly understand how funding rates should be interpreted on Binance and other platforms.

In Binance’s funding rate formula, an interest rate of 0.01% is applied. This means that, when analyzing market dominance, the neutral funding rate is not 0, but 0.01%.

As a result, when the funding rate is below 0.01%, shorts dominate, and when it is above 0.01%, longs dominate.

We can observe that the dominant trend had already been skewed to the downside for several months, but without a clear excess.

Today, funding rates on Binance are clearly reaching an extreme zone, signaling an accumulation of short positions and the formation of a bearish consensus among investors.

It is often at this precise moment that the market tends to react in the opposite direction.

Historically, such phases have frequently preceded trend reversals, sometimes lasting, sometimes limited to the very short term.

Even though this is an interesting signal, it remains essential to properly plan entries, especially by relying on key technical levels. Current technical analysis highlights two major areas of interest at $74,000 and $69,000.

Written by Darkfost

Monitoring exchange netflows and reserves is essential to gauge exchange health during market stress. Sharp, sustained outflows relative to reserves might typically signal liquidity strain and declining user confidence. In the current turmoil, however, on-chain data show stable reserves and contained netflows. Despite recent FUD around Binance, the metrics do not indicate abnormal withdrawals or balance deterioration, suggesting no evidence of exchange stress.Binance's reserves remain stable despite market stress. Binance holds ~659K BTC, virtually unchanged from 657K BTC at end-2025, and up 7% from its July 10, 2025 yearly low, indicating no material reserve erosion during the current Bitcoin sell-off.

Binance's netflows show no signs of distress. Daily Bitcoin netflows remain within the normal range observed since June 2023, with no abnormal withdrawal spikes. Stress-level outflows comparable to December 2022 (post-FTX crash) have not reappeared in the current downturn.

The exchange's Netflow-to-Reserve ratio confirms stability. The ratio stands at 0.006 (0.6%) in January, signaling negligible reserve movement. This contrasts sharply with December 2022’s -0.12 (-12%), when significant user withdrawals reflected acute market stress.

Positioning relative to peers reflects Binance’s stable performance. Binance’s 0.006 ratio indicates stable or slightly positive flows, comparable to large peers like Coinbase (-0.005). Smaller exchanges such as Bitstamp, Kraken, and HTX recorded materially larger negative ratios (-0.05 to -0.09), implying 5–9% reserve declines over the same period.

Written by CQ Research

• In this analysis, I show how useful the UTXO Age Bands (6-12 months), the SMA50 (weekly chart), the AVWAP anchored to the latest ATH, and the AVWAP anchored to the Fourth Halving (including its upper and lower bands) have been for analyzing Bitcoin’s price action from the last halving to the present.

Price began to compress and bounce between the lower and upper bands of the AVWAP anchored to the Fourth Halving (orange lines), while at the same time closing above the SMA50 (blue line), which had a positive slope (1-6).

After the first rally, the bands expanded significantly and moved far away from the original average price, leaving it in the middle. There were four opportunities to use the upper band as a reference for identifying potential market tops (7 and 9-11).

On the other hand, the original Fourth Halving AVWAP acted as support together with the SMA50. Buyers defended that area (8). Then, after the ATH, price closed below the SMA50 (12) and used that AVWAP as support for the second time (13).

Subsequently, the market experienced a modest recovery, but the 97K-100K area acted as resistance (14), and the first lower high (LH) was formed. In this zone, several average price levels were clustered, including the UTXO Age Bands (6-12 months), the SMA50, and the AVWAP anchored to the latest ATH (red line).

Currently, Bitcoin’s price has closed below the AVWAP anchored to the Fourth Halving (which had recently acted as support), the SMA50 (with a slightly downward slope), and the AVWAP anchored to the latest ATH, showing that sellers are dominating the market (15-16).

Written by _OnChain

Binance has transferred 1,315 BTC (~$100M) into its Secure Asset Fund for Users (SAFU). This is the first on-chain transaction in its plan to shift the $1B user-protection fund toward bitcoin.

On-chain data shows the BTC moved directly from a Binance-controlled wallet to a known SAFU address, indicating an internal treasury reclassification. This aligns with Binance’s late-January announcement that the transition would occur gradually over 30 days.

SAFU is a security fund established to protect users against losses resulting from unforeseen events such as hacks. Last week, Binance stated that it would convert $1 billion worth of dollar-pegged tokens into Bitcoin for the fund over the next 30 days, and pledged to replenish the fund if its value falls below $800 million due to market volatility.

Written by maartunn

Recent data on the estimated leverage ratio in the Bitcoin market reflect a clear shift in trader behavior. Across all platforms, the data show that the leverage ratio has fallen to around 0.21, its lowest level since mid-December, when it was trading at relatively higher levels. This decline reflects a reduced reliance on leveraged positions and indicates a lower risk appetite among a large segment of traders.

In contrast, data from Binance present a somewhat different picture. Despite a clear decline from previous peaks, the leverage ratio on Binance remains around 0.17, which is higher than its levels in December, when it was lower. This suggests that Binance traders continue to maintain a relatively higher degree of leverage exposure compared with the broader market.

This decline coincides with volatile price movements, as many market participants have opted to reduce leverage as a risk management strategy, particularly following periods of price pressure and limited corrections. Historically, leverage ratios approaching 0.21 are often associated with a more balanced market environment, where the likelihood of forced liquidations driven by excessive leverage is reduced.

Written by Arab Chain

In these two charts, inflows to Binance are currently stronger and more aggressive than outflows. This alone reflects a bearish market behavior.

As you know, whales and institutional players primarily use Binance due to its superior liquidity. Therefore, Binance data is critically important for accurately reading market dynamics.

On the inflow side, higher value bands (100K-1M & 1M+ XRP) appear more frequently and with larger volumes. Outflows do exist, but they are reactive meaning they occur after the price has already declined. Large investors sell their XRP first, and only after the price drops do they withdraw a portion from exchanges to rebalance. This behavior has turned into a recurring cycle since the second half of 2025.

The inflow chart shows sharper and more repetitive spikes. Before the price can recover, XRP is sent back to exchanges again. This behavior does not indicate holding or dip accumulation. Whales are either selling or waiting; buying interest remains weak.

One of the most common mistakes is interpreting outflows as a bullish signal. In this case, outflows increase not during price rallies but after price declines, indicating forced or defensive withdrawals. There is no sustained supply contraction on the outflow chart. For the structure to turn bullish, outflows must lead first, followed by a price increase.

Every increase in inflow suppresses the price, while increases in outflow fail to generate meaningful price reactions. Any rebounds are weak and short lived. This shows a market where buyers lack strength and sellers continue to dominate.

Given this setup, my expectation is that the primary price trend will continue downward, with any upward moves remaining corrective and temporary. I view every rebound as a selling opportunity. The probability of a new low or at least one more low remains high.

Written by PelinayPA

$ETH is currently below the realized price.

$ETH whales are in a loss position. However, the positive signal is that they are still accumulating.

Despite the decline, $ETH inflows into accumulation addresses have increased.

$ETH reached this level once before, in April of last year, and quickly recovered and then rose.

Whales' buying power remains intact, meaning they find the current price attractive. A significant rebound is expected.

Written by CW8900

The latest data from the Stock-to-Flow (S2F) Ratio shows a historic divergence between Bitcoin’s mathematical scarcity and its current market price.

The Data Breakdown:

S2F Vertical Spike: The SMA-7 of the Stock-to-Flow ratio (purple dashed line) has surged toward the 54K mark.

Price Divergence: While the scarcity metric is climbing, the BTC price (black line) has corrected sharply to $78.3K.

Supply Shock Potential: This gap indicates that the "Flow" (new supply entering the market) is shrinking relative to the existing "Stock," creating a massive theoretical undervaluation.

Possible Scenarios:

Supply-Driven Rebound: Historically, when the S2F Ratio trends upward while the price drops, it creates a "coiled spring" effect. A price catch-up toward the scarcity model's mean is a high-probability outcome.

Extended Consolidation: The market may ignore the scarcity fundamentals in the short term due to macro fear, but the long-term floor is being reinforced by the hardening of the asset.

Summary: We are seeing an extreme "discount" relative to Bitcoin’s programmed scarcity. The network is getting harder, even if the price is temporarily softer.

Written by NovAnalytica

The latest data reveals a significant drop in the SOPR Ratio, reaching its lowest levels in the past year.

Key Observations:

LTH vs. STH Capitulation: The SOPR Ratio (dashed purple line) has plummeted toward the 1.0 level. This suggests that Long-Term Holders are realizing much less profit compared to Short-Term Holders, or are simply stop-selling at these levels.

Price Correction: The Bitcoin price (black line) has hit a local low of $77.9K, mirroring the sharp decline in the ratio.

Market Sentiment: Historically, such a low SOPR Ratio indicates that "smart money" has stopped selling, often marking a period of accumulation or a potential market floor.

Possible Scenarios:

Bottoming Signal: If the SOPR Ratio stabilizes around 1.0, it may indicate that the heavy selling from long-term investors is exhausted, paving the way for a price bounce.

Extended Consolidation: The sharp vertical drop in the price line suggests high momentum; we might see price move sideways as the market "absorbs" the recent volatility before a trend reversal.

Summary: The market is flushed. With the ratio at yearly lows, the "weak hands" have likely exited, and we are entering a zone where long-term value begins to outweigh short-term fear.

Written by NovAnalytica

The recent data for Bitcoin: Exchange Whale Ratio shows a significant shift that demands attention.

The Data Breakdown:

Whale Ratio Spike: The dashed purple line (SMA-7) has surged toward the 0.575 level. This indicates that the top 10 largest inflows to exchanges make up a massive portion of total deposits.

Price Action: Simultaneously, the Bitcoin price (black line) has seen a sharp correction, dropping toward the $77.9K support zone.

The Divergence: We are seeing a "Bearish Divergence" where whale activity on exchanges is peaking while prices are sliding.

Possible Scenarios:

Increased Selling Pressure: High whale deposits often signal an intent to sell or hedge. If this ratio stays elevated, we may see further downward pressure or a consolidation phase.

Market Flush: This could be a tactical "shakeout" where large players move funds to trigger liquidations before the next leg up.

Local Bottom Search: If the Whale Ratio begins to cool down while price stabilizes at $75K–$77K, it could signal the end of the current correction.

Conclusion: Caution is advised. The whales are active, and historically, these spikes precede high volatility. Keep a close eye on the $77K support level.

Written by NovAnalytica

📰 Daily Market Update:

In the past few hours, multiple on-chain indicators have pointed to distribution behavior, revealed by analyzing Bitcoin inflows through different perspectives, such as holder age and whale activity.

📊 [Bitcoin] Binance Exchange Inflow by Holder Age

This chart tracks BTC inflows to Binance segmented by coin age — how long coins were held before being moved.

🔬 Key Observation

📈 What stands out clearly is a sudden inflow from the 6M–12M holder age cohort, recorded just hours ago.

📅 On Feb 2, holders aged 6–12 months deposited 5,000 BTC to Binance

📅 This marks the first inflow of this size from this age group since early 2024.

📊 BTC: Whale (>1K) to Binance Inflow

The second chart focuses on whale activity, tracking wallets holding more than 1,000 BTC and their transfers to Binance.

🔬 Key Observation

📈 On February 2, whales deposited approximately 5,000 BTC into Binance.

📈 This is the second inflow of similar size, following a previous spike on December 18.

📉 After the December inflow, Bitcoin price did not immediately crash, but later declined below $80,000, suggesting a delayed market selling.

🧠 Final Conclusion

Tracking inflows by holder age and whale size gives a broader view of market trends.

While big whale inflows don’t always trigger immediate sell-offs, they do boost the available supply on spot markets, which can heighten downside risk if demand slows.

Written by Amr Taha

On-chain data shows that miners transferred approximately 175,000 Bitcoin to the Binance platform during January, a high level compared with normal miner flow rates during stable periods. This intense activity places miner behavior at the center of the analytical landscape, as miners are among the most important sources of natural supply on the Bitcoin network.

Notably, these transfers were not evenly distributed throughout the month, with several days experiencing sharp spikes. On certain days, miner outflows reached nearly 10,000 Bitcoin per day. This pattern suggests deliberate selling decisions or focused liquidity management, rather than routine operational flows. Historically, such daily spikes are often associated with rising operating costs or miners’ attempts to take advantage of specific price levels.

During the same period, miner inflows continued while Bitcoin was trading around the $95,000 level, before later declining toward $78,000 by the end of January. This price behavior reflects a notably volatile environment, providing miners with additional incentives to rebalance their holdings or secure liquidity at relatively elevated price levels, particularly following prior upward moves.

Transferring Bitcoin to exchanges does not necessarily imply immediate selling, but it does increase the amount of supply available within exchange order books. If this additional supply coincides with strong demand, it can be absorbed without a meaningful impact on price. However, if demand remains weak, such inflows may translate into short-term selling pressure.

Written by Arab Chain

The key to understanding today’s Bitcoin market is not forecasting price direction, but analyzing structure—where capital is concentrated, how it is financed, and whether new demand is entering the system.

CryptoQuant analyst Maartunn notes that Strategy’s average acquisition price around $76,000 has become a critical structural reference point. This level was not deliberately set, but the sheer volume held there makes it impossible for the market to ignore. As price approaches this zone, the focus shifts from bullish or bearish narratives to whether the market can hold this level without revealing stress.

Leverage here extends beyond derivatives. Although Strategy is not using short-term trading leverage, its accumulation has relied on capital markets via equity issuance and convertible bonds. This shifts attention to whether the capital-market window remains open. If Bitcoin and Strategy’s equity weaken simultaneously and funding conditions tighten, sustained accumulation becomes harder, reducing structural demand.

On-chain data supports this cautious view. Realized Cap has struggled to grow despite large price swings, indicating rotation among existing holders rather than fresh inflows. In such an environment, rebounds are more likely driven by short covering or liquidity effects than durable demand.

SOPR reinforces this picture. With SOPR often below 1, short-term holders are realizing losses and exiting. While this can trigger relief rallies, lasting trend reversals typically require SOPR to reclaim and hold above 1.

Until spot volume, ETF flows, and Realized Cap reaccelerate together, the base case remains a broad, weak consolidation. The $76,000 level is not a guaranteed floor, but a structural test line. For now, this is a market about structure, not price.

Written by XWIN Research Japan

Bitcoin funding rates have turned negative for three consecutive days.

When Bitcoin’s price declines and funding rates remain negative for several days in a row, this is generally considered a buy signal. This can be seen clearly in the first chart.

The current funding rate environment indicates that short positions are dominating long positions across all major exchanges in the futures market.

However, if we are currently in the middle of a broader downtrend that began in October last year, negative funding rates like these are likely to appear frequently. Please refer to the second chart.

It shows the frequency of negative funding rates during the one-year decline following the double top after the third halving, where such conditions occurred quite often.

From a bullish perspective, this can be seen as an excellent buying opportunity.

From a bearish perspective, however, it may mark the beginning of a prolonged downward consolidation phase.

At the moment, Bitcoin is struggling to gain upward momentum and has failed to fill the CME gap around $84K.

This suggests that the overall strength of the crypto market is currently quite weak.

Written by CoinNiel

Key point: sentiment often matters more than price.

This metric helps you see who breaks first.

What I’m watching:

- If the ratio drops below 1 = STH spending at a loss (stress / forced selling)

- If it holds above 1 = sentiment stabilizing, correction may be fading

Context:

- This is NOT a macro bottom call.

- It’s a market stress indicator. Track it, don’t marry it.

Metric explanation:

LTH vs STH:

- STH (Short-Term Holders) = coins moved by holders <155 days. More reactive, more likely to panic.

- LTH (Long-Term Holders) = coins held >155 days. Usually the patient money.

SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) shows whether moved coins are realizing profit or loss:

- SOPR > 1 = moved in profit

- SOPR < 1 = moved at a loss

So the LTH/STH SOPR ratio compares who is realizing P/L:

- Ratio falling = STH losses rising vs LTH. Stress / capitulation risk.

- Ratio stabilizing/rising = weaker hands done, pressure cooling.

How I read it: a sentiment/stress gauge, not a magic bottom button.

Written by IT Tech