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Bitwise CIO Reveals What ETF Flows Show
Bitcoin is down over 45% from its October 2025 peak, spot crypto fund AUM has dropped to $130 billion, and roughly 40% of spot Bitcoin ETF holders would need a 50% recovery just to break even.
But according to Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan and GraniteShares CEO Will Rhind in a recent CNBC interview, the people selling are not who most expect.
📊 ETF Investors Are Not Driving the Bitcoin Sell-Off
Net outflows from Bitcoin ETFs have been roughly $7 billion, a small number compared to total AUM.

Most of the decline comes from price drops, not redemptions.
👉 The primary sellers are long-term, original crypto holders who built positions over 15 years and are now trimming.

👉 On the other side, financial advisor channels have been buying the dip.
Hedge funds and short-term traders within the same ETFs are the ones creating outflows, which masks the advisor-side buying entirely.
Hougan described it as two different markets inside the same product:
⚡ Fast money trading the next month🧱 Long-term allocators investing over 4–5 years

🥇 Gold Puts Pressure on Bitcoin
Gold breaking past $5,000 an ounce while Bitcoin falls has made things harder for crypto investors.
Rhind addressed it:
“It’s tough to be a Bitcoin investor or crypto investor right now when you look at the price of gold going through $5,000 an ounce… the precious metals thing has really caught crypto investors sort of off guard. This is not supposed to happen.”

🐻 This Bitcoin Bear Market Looks Different
In past bear markets, Bitcoin retraced 77–85%.

This time, the drawdown sits at around 50–52%.
Hougan said ETF-based long-term holders may be the reason for the shallower drop, acting as a price floor even if they have not prevented major losses.
Outflows have also slowed to just under $200 million despite heavy price pressure, which has historically signaled a possible turning point.
(This behavior aligns closely with recent ETF cost-basis stress discussed in earlier market breakdowns around the $80,000 level.)

🏦 Wall Street Firms Open Doors to Crypto
All four major firms — Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo, and UBS — now allow exposure to crypto products.
Morgan Stanley has filed to launch its own spot Bitcoin ETF after clearing its roughly 15,000 financial advisors to pitch existing products.

Hougan said a sharp recovery is unlikely.
“Usually these bear markets sort of die in exhaustion, not excitement. I would expect it to sort of bottom out slowly and then things like Morgan Stanley going all in on Bitcoin will be part of what accelerates us when we’re on the upside,” he said.

If ETFs aren’t panic-selling… and advisors are quietly accumulating…

👉 Who do you think controls the next major move for Bitcoin?

Binance has officially completed the conversion of its $1 billion Secure Asset Fund for Users (SAFU) into Bitcoin, reinforcing $BTC as its core reserve asset.
According to Arkham data, the exchange purchased an additional $304 million worth of Bitcoin, bringing the total SAFU holdings to 15,000 BTC, with an average aggregate cost basis of $67,000 per coin.
“With SAFU Fund now fully in Bitcoin, we reinforce our belief in BTC as the premier long-term reserve asset.”
Let’s break down what this really means for the market 👇
📌 What Is SAFU?
SAFU is Binance’s emergency protection fund, created to protect users in extreme situations (security breaches, unexpected losses, etc.).
Originally diversified, the fund is now 100% Bitcoin-backed.
This is not just a portfolio adjustment — it’s a strategic positioning statement.

🏦 Why This Move Matters
1️⃣ Institutional Confidence Signal
By holding its $1B emergency reserve fully in Bitcoin, Binance is:
Declaring BTC as a long-term store of valueAligning with the “Bitcoin as digital reserve asset” thesisRemoving stablecoin or altcoin exposure from its safety buffer
This comes at a time when market sentiment is at record lows, with the Fear & Greed Index plunging to extreme fear levels.
When retail is scared, institutions often reposition.
2️⃣ Market Context: Extreme Fear 😨
This conversion happened while:
Bitcoin briefly dropped below $60,000Smart money traders hold a $105M net short position16% of Bitcoin’s market cap moved into loss territory — the highest pain level since Terra’s collapse in 2022
Despite the fear, derivatives data shows:
Neutral to slightly negative funding ratesOpen interest stabilizingNo aggressive leverage expansion
Translation?

The market may be cooling down rather than accelerating downward.

📊 Risk Management Clause
Binance stated it will rebalance the fund if volatility pushes its value below $800 million.
This is important.
It means:
They are not blindly holding.There is active treasury management. volatility is still acknowledged as a risk factor.
🔎 Bigger Picture: Is This Accumulation Phase?
This move comes shortly after heavy ETF outflows and increasing bearish positioning.
Historically, major players accumulate during:
Panic phasesLiquidity flushesSentiment extremesThe interesting detail?Binance completed the acquisition in less than two weeks, faster than the originally announced 30-day window.
That signals urgency — or conviction.

⚖️ Strategic Implications
If Bitcoin stabilizes above Binance’s average cost basis ($67K):
The SAFU fund gains strengthThe move looks visionary
If BTC drops significantly below:
The exchange may need to rebalance
Market perception could shiftEither way, this is a high-conviction bet on Bitcoin’s long-term trajectory.
🧠 What Should Traders Watch Now?
Bitcoin holding above key psychological levelsFunding rate behaviorETF inflow/outflow trendsSmart money positioning shiftsVolume expansion near support zonesExtreme fear often creates asymmetric opportunities — but only when structure confirms stabilization.
💭 Final Thought
When the largest exchange in the world chooses to hold its emergency protection fund entirely in Bitcoin during one of the most fearful sentiment periods in recent years, it sends a message:
This is not short-term speculation.
It’s long-term positioning.
Now the real question is:
Is this the calm before recovery — or just another consolidation before deeper volatility? What’s your view on this move? 🚀

Bitcoin price started a recovery wave from $60,000 📈. BTC is now consolidating gains above $70,000 and faces hurdles near the $72,000 zone.
Bitcoin is attempting to recover but is struggling to clear hurdles ⚠️.The price is trading above $70,000 and the 100 hourly simple moving average.There was a break above a bearish trend line with resistance at $69,800 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken) 📊.The pair might dip again if it trades below the $68,500 and $67,200 levels 📉.
Bitcoin Price Holds Support
Bitcoin price managed to remain stable above the $65,000 zone. BTC started a recovery wave and was able to climb above the $68,500 resistance zone.
The price surpassed the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent downward move from the $78,988 swing high to the $60,500 low. Besides, there was a break above a bearish trend line with resistance at $69,800 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair.
Bitcoin is now trading above $70,000 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. If the price remains stable above $70,000, it could attempt a fresh increase 🚀. Immediate resistance is near the $71,200 level. The first key resistance is near the $72,000 level or the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the recent downward move from the $78,988 swing high to the $60,500 low.
A close above the $72,000 resistance might send the price further higher. In that case, the price could rise and test the $73,200 resistance. Any more gains might send the price toward the $74,650 level. The next barrier for the bulls could be $75,000 and $75,500 🐂.

Another Decline In BTC?
If Bitcoin fails to rise above the $72,000 resistance zone, it could start another decline. Immediate support is near the $70,000 level. The first major support is near the $68,500 level.
The next support is now near the $67,200 zone. Any more losses might send the price toward the $66,000 support in the near term. The main support now sits at $65,000, below which BTC might struggle to recover in the near term 📉.
Technical indicators
Hourly MACD – The MACD is now gaining pace in the bearish zone.Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now above the 50 level.
Major Support Levels – $68,500, followed by $67,200.
Major Resistance Levels – $72,000 and $74,650. 📊