• This week crypto traded sideways before the FOMC meeting and took a plunge after. Currently, BTC has rebounded 2% from the $25,000 key level after the federal judge overseeing the SEC case against Binance.US and Binance declined a restraining order to freeze Binance.US’s platform's assets.

  • The overall altcoin market performance was negative with many coins down double-digits for the week. BTC market cap dominance % reached a one-year high at 49.5%.

  • On Thursday morning, USDT holdings on Curve’s 3pool rose to over 72%, causing USDT to de-peg from the US dollar. USDC/USDT traded as high as 1.0042. USDC/USDT is now trading at 1.0008.

Convert Portal Volume Breakdown

  • This week we see over 30% of the trading volume coming from crypto to stablecoin as investors braced for the price pressure after the SEC charges against Binance & Coinbase. 

  • After the market stabilized, investors and speculators turned back to crypto, accounting for 24.60% of the trading volume. We see some significant rebounds in the altcoin space after the drop caused by the SEC cases last week.

  • Crypto to crypto transactions came in 3rd with a value of 16.21% as speculators rotate their holdings. 

Overall market technicals

BTC

  • BTC tested the 25k critical level yesterday as it formed a long-term wedge. If we break below this key level, it will open the door to more downside. The 20k level, which was achieved during the banking crisis in March, will be the next significant support level.

  • Although we have a capitulation drop caused by the headlines of SEC’s allegations against Binance and Coinbase, the trading volume is significantly lower than it was during the March rally. It could suggest that there are strong holders clinging on to Bitcoin at these levels. We anticipate BTC will continue to trade sideways until it breaks the wedge and finds its direction.

Macro at a glance 

Last Thursday (2023/06/08), the US Initial Jobless Claims rose to 261k, up from the previous week’s 233k and higher than the estimated 235k. Given all the headlines about layoffs at major corporations like Meta, Amazon, and Disney, the US labour market may be seeing more signs of a retreat. 

On Monday (2023/06/12), Germany released CPI growth figures that were both lower than the previous month's figures of 0.4% month-over-month and 7.2% year-over-year, coming in at -0.1% month-over-month and 6.1% year-over-year. This may imply that the fight against inflation has reached a turning point for a sizable portion of the European economy.

On Tuesday (2023/06/13), the US reported a CPI reading of 0.1% month-over-month and 4.0% year-over-year, lower than the previous month’s 0.4% and 4.9%, respectively. The Core CPI reading, however, at 0.4% month-over-month and 5.3% year-over-year, increased slightly from last month’s 0.4% and 5.5%, respectively. The Core CPI continues to be persistent and above the Fed's 2% objective.

On Wednesday (2023/06/14), the Fed decided to pause the interest rate hike and maintain the benchmark rate at 5% to 5.25%. This is the first pause in 15 months after the Fed aggressively brought up the interest rate from 0% to 5% in 10 consecutive rate hikes. Yet, according to the dot-plot, the terminal rate for 2023 is now 5.60%, which is 50bps more than the 5.1% projected by the dot-plot in March. Given this hawkish assessment of the ultimate rate, two additional rate increases are predicted for H2 2023. The rate rise delayed news caused a swing in the US stock markets, which lost all of its gains when the hawkish dot-plot was released. The cryptocurrency market, on the other hand, followed the equity market until the American markets closed and then plunged sharply afterward. BTC breached the $25k key level while ETH dropped below the $1650 key level. As markets opened in Asia, both BTC and ETH recaptured these crucial levels.

Email: Liquidity@binance.com 

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