🚨 THE MARKET MAY NOT BE DONE BLEEDING.
CPI came in hotter than expected, triggering a sell-off across markets:
BTC: -2.3%
Nasdaq 100 Futures: -1.52%
S&P 500 Futures: -0.86%
Gold: -2.4%
Meanwhile, markets are pricing in roughly an 85% probability of a 50 bps rate hike in December.
Everyone is looking at the same thing right now: bearish CPI, higher rates, and another potential sell-off in Bitcoin.
But here's what I'm watching. 👇
I don't think the market has fully priced in what's coming next.
My expectation is that Bitcoin and the broader market could experience another significant downside move before the December FOMC meeting.
Why?
Because when everyone starts positioning in the same direction, the market often finds a way to surprise them.
I also believe we need to look beyond CPI and interest rates.
There are other major political and macroeconomic factors in play:
1️⃣ US Midterm Election Results: The shift in political power could influence the administration's economic priorities and its approach to inflation.
2️⃣ Trump's Policy Direction: We've recently seen changes in Trump's tone regarding Iran, alongside potential adjustments to trade and tariff policies. These developments could influence inflation expectations and market sentiment.
3️⃣ The Fed's Next Move: The biggest question is whether inflation can come down without the Fed having to tighten monetary policy further.
My thesis:
The market could continue adjusting lower into the December FOMC meeting, with the possibility of a much bigger move around that period.
And here's something worth remembering:
Bitcoin doesn't necessarily bottom when everyone becomes bearish. It bottoms when the market has already priced in the fear and most participants have given up.
I'm not calling for an immediate recovery.
I'm watching for more downside, more volatility, and potentially one of the most important market reactions of this year.
Don't get too comfortable with one-sided market positioning.
Stay patient. Watch liquidity. Watch macro.
#BTC #CPI #FOMC #Macro
CPI came in hotter than expected, triggering a sell-off across markets:
BTC: -2.3%
Nasdaq 100 Futures: -1.52%
S&P 500 Futures: -0.86%
Gold: -2.4%
Meanwhile, markets are pricing in roughly an 85% probability of a 50 bps rate hike in December.
Everyone is looking at the same thing right now: bearish CPI, higher rates, and another potential sell-off in Bitcoin.
But here's what I'm watching. 👇
I don't think the market has fully priced in what's coming next.
My expectation is that Bitcoin and the broader market could experience another significant downside move before the December FOMC meeting.
Why?
Because when everyone starts positioning in the same direction, the market often finds a way to surprise them.
I also believe we need to look beyond CPI and interest rates.
There are other major political and macroeconomic factors in play:
1️⃣ US Midterm Election Results: The shift in political power could influence the administration's economic priorities and its approach to inflation.
2️⃣ Trump's Policy Direction: We've recently seen changes in Trump's tone regarding Iran, alongside potential adjustments to trade and tariff policies. These developments could influence inflation expectations and market sentiment.
3️⃣ The Fed's Next Move: The biggest question is whether inflation can come down without the Fed having to tighten monetary policy further.
My thesis:
The market could continue adjusting lower into the December FOMC meeting, with the possibility of a much bigger move around that period.
And here's something worth remembering:
Bitcoin doesn't necessarily bottom when everyone becomes bearish. It bottoms when the market has already priced in the fear and most participants have given up.
I'm not calling for an immediate recovery.
I'm watching for more downside, more volatility, and potentially one of the most important market reactions of this year.
Don't get too comfortable with one-sided market positioning.
Stay patient. Watch liquidity. Watch macro.
#BTC #CPI #FOMC #Macro
