$BTC now sits on the short-term holder cost basis. The big question is whether buyers defend the $73–76K band before US payrolls land at 13:30 UTC.
📌 IN SHORT $BTC trades near $75,500, down about 6.2% in 24h. The daily range was $75,230 to $81,000. Fear & Greed dropped from 50 to 28. About $1.08B in crypto positions were liquidated, roughly 88% of them longs.
📈 TECHNICALS
Price is below the 20-day ($79,962), 50-day (~$82,000) and 100-day (~$76,950) moving averages. It is still above the 200-day (~$73,200). Daily RSI is about 39, neutral but falling. Resistance: $76,950 / $80,000–81,000 / $82,000 / $84,800 Support: $75,000 / $73,000–73,200 / $68,000 / $60,000–63,000
🏦 FUNDAMENTALS & ON-CHAIN
• Spot BTC ETFs took in +$74.6M on Nov 4, but reports point to a ~−$430M outflow on Nov 5, led by FBTC.
• Strategy ($MSTR) added 811 BTC for $65.5M and now holds 849,327 BTC.
• Glassnode puts the short-term holder cost basis at ~$75.7K and the True Market Mean at ~$77.7K. Only ~38% of short-term holder supply is in profit.
• Hashrate is ~954 EH/s. The next difficulty adjustment, around Nov 12, is estimated at about −1.2%.
• BTC futures open interest fell from ~$28B to below $26B.
📰 TOP NEWS
1⃣ The Nasdaq fell ~5.5% and the chip index ~12% on Nov 5 on worries about slower AI buildouts after the Democratic sweep.
2⃣ CME FedWatch prices a ~69–81% chance of a Dec 9 rate hike. The Bank of England already hiked to 4.00%.
3⃣ Crypto equities slid. Coinbase and Strategy fell about 10%, and miners fell more.
🎯 SCENARIOS
🟢 Bullish: $BTC holds $75K and reclaims ~$77K. That opens $80–82K, especially if jobs data comes in soft.
⚪ Base: a $73–77K range around the cost basis while markets wait for CPI on Nov 10.
🔴 Bearish: a daily close below $73K (200-day MA) exposes $68K.
🧠 WHAT ANALYSTS SAY
• Wintermute: downside targets of $73K, then $68K, but the medium-term view stays "glass half full".
• Glassnode: holding $73–76K keeps the August uptrend intact. Losing $73K points to a longer range.
• Standard Chartered, Citi and Bernstein: year-end targets of $100K, $113K and $125K, cut in October.
🗓 UPCOMING (UTC)
• Fri Nov 6, 13:30: US October jobs report
• Tue Nov 10, 13:30: US October CPI
• ~Thu Nov 12: Bitcoin difficulty adjustment
• Fri Nov 13, 13:30: US October PPI • Wed Dec 9, 19:00: FOMC rate decision Which level breaks first this week: $77K or $73K?