bitcoin

Sitting here on this lazy Sunday, coffee in hand, charts open, and man… $BTC Bitcoin did snap back toward $70K after kissing the low-$60Ks, which has me thinking “Is that the bottom… or just another dead cat bounce?
Right now, the honest answer is: the data is mixed. There are serious signs of a proper flush-out, but also real risks that price revisits the $50K–$60K zone before this correction is truly done.
This whole rebound screams “weekend pump” to me, the kind we’ve all gotten burned by before.
Before we go deep, here’s what happened:
A fast drop: Bitcoin was chilling around $95K–$100K, then BAM, early February hits, and we’re staring at $60K. A straight 50%+ haircut from the October 2025 ATH of $126K, this triggered heavy forced selling/liquidations. $8.7 billion in liquidations get wiped out. Oof.A rebound back: Then this weekend? Boom. Up 15–17% in a flash, back over $70K. Helped by broader risk assets stabilizing (tech bounce was part of that mood shift). The whole market followed: $ETH jumping, SOL breathing again, total cap back near $2.4T.Now the market is hovering around that $68K–$70K zone, a battlefield area, not a victory lap.
But here’s the thing that’s nagging at me (and probably you too): this feels exactly like those classic weekend pumps we’ve learned not to trust.
You know the drill: thin liquidity, retail traders bored on Sunday scrolling X, a couple of big whales or ETF flows creating a fake squeeze, then Monday comes and reality slaps everyone. I’ve been wrecked by these before. They look juicy on the 4H chart… until they don’t.

Okay, But What Actually Sparked This Rebound?
I’m not saying there’s zero reason for the bounce. A few things lined up perfectly:
Cooler CPI data – January print came in at 2.4% YoY (lower than expected). When inflation data comes in cooler than feared, markets start whispering about “less aggressive rates” or “earlier cuts.” That tends to lift risk assets, stocks, high beta trades, and yes, Bitcoin.
Whether that optimism lasts is a different matter, but it’s a real short-term trigger.
ETF inflows finally flipping – After a brutal month of outflows (over $1.7B at one point), we got back-to-back positive days: $471M on Friday, another $145M on Monday. BlackRock and Fidelity leading the charge. When flows flip positive after a stretch of outflows, it can feel like institutions are “buying the dip,” and that narrative alone can ignite a rally.
But here’s the key: one or two strong inflow days doesn’t automatically equal a trend. It needs follow-through.
The great liquidation cleanse: This bounce didn’t come from nowhere. It came after serious damage in the derivatives market. $8.7B gone. Leverage got absolutely nuked. Funding rates crashed, open interest dropped hard. Some analysts are calling it “healthy deleveraging.” I get it, weak hands out, stronger foundation?
On paper, it looks bullish. I even caught myself smiling at the chart for a second. But then I dug deeper…
My On-Chain Check
Insane Realized Losses: We just saw $3.2 billion in entity-adjusted losses. That’s bigger than the Terra collapse. That’s capitulation-like behavior, yes but deep realized losses can sometimes happen before the ultimate low.Short-Term Holders (STH) are Rekt: The STH MVRV is sitting at 0.72. People are underwater and looking for any exit. We haven’t seen the full “everyone who was gonna sell has sold” moment. Recent buyers tend to be the ones who panic first. If they’re still dumping aggressively, the market can still have another leg down.Long-Term Holders (LTH) are Distributing: Data shows the OGs are selling into this $70K strength. That is not bottom behavior.Standard Chartered’s Warning: They just slashed their target to $100K and warned we could test $50,000 first. When the big bulls start sweating, I listen.
Bottom line: this bounce is not automatically “fake”… but it also doesn’t yet scream “the bottom is confirmed.”
Why I’m Calling This a Dead Cat Bounce + Classic Weekend Pump
Alright, here’s my honest take: 6 reasons I’m not trusting this move:
Weekend pumps are traps 80% of the time
Low volume, no institutional firepower on Saturdays/Sundays. Retail piles in, then on Monday, the big boys take profits. I’ve seen it too many times. This one has that exact smell.$70K–$72K is a heavy, psychologically resistant zone
Markets love to retest broken levels. And this range has acted like a magnet and a ceiling lately. We’ve rejected here multiple times in the last two weeks. Volume on the way up was way weaker than the sell-off. If the price keeps rejecting there, it can turn into a launchpad for another drop. Weak conviction.Standard Chartered warns about lower levels:
They slashed their 2026 target from $150K to $100K and straight-up said we could see $50K first. These guys are usually pretty bullish. When even they’re warning of more pain… I listen. Some institutions have openly discussed $50K downside risk before a later recovery. Whether you agree or not, that kind of call matters because it shapes market psychology.History doesn’t lie: Every bull cycle has these fakeout rallies mid-correction. 2017, 2021, same script. Post-halving corrections take time. We’re only 4 months from the top. The real bottom usually comes after the “this is it!” moment fools everyone.Macro isn’t fully clear
Cooler CPI is nice, but tariffs, sticky shelter costs, and “higher for longer” talk aren’t dead. Plus, money’s rotating into international stocks right now. Crypto isn’t the only game in town.Sentiment is still too hopeful
Everyone’s already calling bottom. That’s usually when we get the real flush.
I’m not saying we’re going to zero. But this rebound? Feels like the market giving us one last chance to load up cheaper.
My Personal Prediction (And What I’m Actually Doing)

Base case: One more leg down to $50K–$55K in the next 4–8 weeks (probably March–April). That’s where the real capitulation happens, on-chain metrics bottom, and the big money starts slurping for real.
Why that zone?
Lines up with StanChart’s warningNear the 200-week MA and realized priceGives the market time to digest macro stuff (March Fed meeting, etc.)Matches the 50–60% drawdowns we usually see in bull markets (we’re at 52% now)
What am I doing in my own portfolio right now?

Holding my core BTC stack (never selling the king)Not buying this rebound — sitting on cash I raised during the $60K dipDCAing small amounts below $62K if we retestAdding to quality alts (SOL, some RWA plays) on weakness because those narratives are still strong long-termTight stops — if we somehow break $75K clean with volume, I’ll admit I’m wrong and rotate back in fast
I’m not trying to catch the exact bottom. I’m trying to buy when fear is actually maximum.

Long-Term? Still Stupid Bullish (Don’t Get It Twisted)
Look, I’m not some doomer. After this final shakeout, 2026 is still going to be wild.
ETF inflows are going to explode once the fear fadesTrump-era regulation looks pro-cryptoRWA tokenization, AI agents, all that stuff is just getting startedHalving supply shock is still working in the background
My crazy target? $120K–$150K by year-end if we get the real bottom soon. But only after the pain.

Bottom line from one regular dude to another:
This $70K weekend pump? Dead cat bounce. Don’t trust it. One more dip is coming, and that’s when the real accumulation phase starts. That’s when I’ll be going hard.
What about you? Are you buying this bounce or waiting for cheaper sats?
What Option Are You Going With Below
Buying the dip right nowWaiting for $60K or lowerAlready all-in and chillingSelling everything (lol)

Drop your thoughts, your charts, your bags, let’s talk. I read every comment.

If you’re new here, hit follow for more no-BS takes like this. Trade safe, stack responsibly, and remember: the market’s always trying to make the majority wrong.
Not financial advice. Just my thoughts after way too much screen time this weekend. DYOR always.
#bitcoin n #btc70k C #Crypto #DeadCatBounce #WeekendPump ump

With Cycle Model Pointing to Potential Record Levels
Fidelity’s global macro director believes that Bitcoin falling to $60,000 probably represents the bottom of its current cycle, paving the way for the next bull run and possible record highs.
Fidelity Macro Chief Links $118 Trillion Liquidity Level to Bitcoin’s Maturity
Fidelity’s Director of Global Macro, Jurrien Timmer, posted on X on Feb. 13 that Bitcoin’s recent drop to around $60,000 hit a support level he had predicted months ago. He said this likely marks the bottom of the previous cycle and could signal the start of a new bull phase.
He wrote that Bitcoin reaching “only” $60K is a relatively mild drop for a Bitcoin winter, and as the asset matures, its price swings should become less extreme. Timmer added that while no one can be certain if $60K is the absolute low, he believes it probably is, and after a period of consolidation, the next cyclical bull market should begin.

Along with his remarks, Timmer posted two charts. The first, called “Bitcoin & Liquidity,” compares Bitcoin’s price with global money supply growth. It shows past cycle highs around $64,870, $68,992, $71,733, and $126,251, identifies the $60,033 level as technical support, and notes that the current global money supply is about $118 trillion.
In his second chart, titled “Bitcoin’s Road to Maturity,” Timmer traced Bitcoin’s price history from early levels around $2 and $24 up to later peaks above $64,000, and projected a future wave 6 target near $290,425. The model factors in adoption rates, wallet growth, and macroeconomic trends, offering a long-term view that could eventually approach $1 million. While Timmer notes this is illustrative rather than a direct price forecast, the chart implies that if past cycles and adoption trends continue, Bitcoin may keep advancing along a steady maturation path after consolidating around $60,000.
#Binance #squarecreator #bitcoin