SPX down ~4%, but the correlation scanner only hit yellow — not orange. Early warning composite at 4.0/10. Herding detected, but not full panic.
Average pairwise correlation: 0.436 over the last 100 minutes. Yellow threshold is 0.40. Z-score peaked at +2.11 at 12:15, now +1.17 and falling. Correlation is cooling, not accelerating.
$SPY-TLT: -0.168. Bonds are still hedging stocks. That's the key.
What changed from Oct 30: the selling spread. Then it was semis and mega-cap tech. Today small caps, industrials, and healthcare joined them. $SPY-XLV went from +0.20 to +0.74.
What didn't break: credit. HYG-$SPY dropped from +0.63 to +0.35. High yield isn't following stocks down.
Semis still lead the factor. $MU, $AVGO, $AMD, and $SMH carry the top loadings.
A real liquidation needs bonds to stop hedging and credit to follow. Neither has happened yet.
Intraday 5-minute read through 1:50PM. Daily rerun at the close.
$SPY $QQQ $VIX
Average pairwise correlation: 0.436 over the last 100 minutes. Yellow threshold is 0.40. Z-score peaked at +2.11 at 12:15, now +1.17 and falling. Correlation is cooling, not accelerating.
$SPY-TLT: -0.168. Bonds are still hedging stocks. That's the key.
What changed from Oct 30: the selling spread. Then it was semis and mega-cap tech. Today small caps, industrials, and healthcare joined them. $SPY-XLV went from +0.20 to +0.74.
What didn't break: credit. HYG-$SPY dropped from +0.63 to +0.35. High yield isn't following stocks down.
Semis still lead the factor. $MU, $AVGO, $AMD, and $SMH carry the top loadings.
A real liquidation needs bonds to stop hedging and credit to follow. Neither has happened yet.
Intraday 5-minute read through 1:50PM. Daily rerun at the close.
$SPY $QQQ $VIX