Trước đây tôi từng đăng bài viết đề cập rằng xác suất 79k là đáy của chu kỳ này vào khoảng 50%. Tôi thấy khá nhiều người nói rằng tin tức và các yếu tố cơ bản không thể ảnh hưởng đến thị trường. Tôi xin phản hồi quan điểm của mình:
Xét về mặt kỹ thuật, thông thường tin tức đúng là không tạo ra ảnh hưởng đáng kể, hoặc chỉ gây ra những biến động cảm xúc ngắn hạn trên các cây nến nằm ở vùng biên của cấu trúc giá.
Tuy nhiên, cũng giống như một cơn mưa nhỏ nhất thời không ảnh hưởng đến việc lái xe, vậy nếu đó là một trận siêu bão bất ngờ, trăm năm mới xuất hiện một lần thì sao?
Đừng tuyệt đối hóa bất cứ điều gì.
Tôi vẫn giữ nguyên quan điểm của mình: nếu không xuất hiện sự kiện thiên nga đen lần này, điểm đảo chiều của chu kỳ rất có thể chỉ là một cú chọc thủng nhẹ vùng 79.4 Việc giá phá vỡ mốc 79 đồng nghĩa với việc thị trường sẽ cần một khoảng thời gian điều chỉnh dài hơn. Hiện tại, $BTC sẽ bắt đầu một đợt dao động trong vùng hộp từ 72–78.5
#BTC sẽ không giảm xuống dưới 71.588 Đây là niềm tin của tôi!
Mốc hỗ trợ 76.4 đang phát huy tác dụng rất tốt, thực sự là một vùng hỗ trợ cực kỳ mạnh. Tôi hy vọng giá có thể phá xuống dưới vùng hỗ trợ này, bởi đây sẽ là một điểm vào lệnh bổ sung rất tốt trong tương lai theo phương pháp giao dịch thuận xu hướng (Right-side trading) #baisha #BTC走势分析
Ethereum at a Crossroads: ETF Losses, Binance Security Recovery, 2028 Roadmap & ETH Price Reversal
Ethereum has packed a lot into these past few weeks etf drama, a security issue, some fresh updates on its roadmap, and even a technical pattern that’s got everyone asking: is the worst behind us yet? First up: ETF losses are piling up. By the end of October, folks holding ETH ETFs were sitting on about $3.5 billion in paper losses, with the average buy-in around $3,200. New money slowed down in October and kept dropping in November. So here’s the thing: when a lot of big players are still in the red, you tend to see them selling as soon as the price creeps back up to their break-even. Keep an eye on those flow numbers for any signs of change. Then there’s the EIP-7702 hack and the near-total recovery. On October 29, attackers used Ethereum’s EIP-7702 to grab roughly 167,464 ETH from a Binance wallet. Binance moved fast, shut things down, and got back 98% of the stolen ETH. That quick response saved the day this time, but it’s a warning: new features like account abstraction can open up more ways for things to go wrong. Both users and wallet makers need to take extra care with delegation settings. Developers, on their side, are now targeting a 2028 transition. Ethereum devs want to finish the network’s post-quantum and AI-related upgrades by December 2028 a whole year ahead of their old target. Heads up though, they’ll look at the roadmap again in January 2027, so don’t take the deadline as gospel. Planning this far ahead for security sets Ethereum apart, but honestly, these open-source timelines are always in flux. On the charts: potential exhaustion showing up. The three-day ETH chart just flashed a TD Sequential buy signal usually a hint that the recent drop could be wrapping up. If ETH gets above $2,500, that could open the door to $2,700. Still, signals aren’t guarantees. Price has to reclaim those levels, and you want to see volume picking up too. If ETH slips below support, that setup falls apart. Meanwhile, treasuries keep stacking ETH. BitMine added 8,573 ETH last week, which takes its stash to 6,060,506 ETH—about 4.9% of Ethereum’s total supply. Steady buying like this can shrink what’s available to trade, but it also means things can get dicey fast if sentiment changes and those big holders start dumping. Bottom line? Weak ETF flows and people stuck at a loss are a drag. But there’s some good news: fast recovery after the exploit, developers looking far ahead, ongoing institutional buying, and a possible buy signal from the charts. Watch $2,500 and $2,700 for direction, and keep an eye on whether ETF outflows finally slow down.
$ETH , $BNB
What do you think does that $3,200 ETF cost basis act as real resistance, or is it just a stat that doesn’t matter much? And after that exploit, are you rethinking keeping assets on-chain? Drop your thoughts below.
Standard disclaimer: This isn’t investment advice. Do your Ownn research #USMidterms-WhatAreMarketsExpecting? #MUBARAK
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🇺🇸 BIG: US Stocks Add $1.2 Trillion Post-Midterms! What Does This Mean for Crypto? 📈🔥 The Wall Street market just pulled off a massive post-election rally! 💸 Following the recent US midterm election results, the US stock market added a staggering $1.2 TRILLION in market capitalization in a single trading session. Key Market Drivers: Political Clarity: Markets welcomed political certainty as investors position for a divided government, which historically limits major unexpected policy and regulatory changes. Declining Bond Yields & Softening Dollar: Lower Treasury yields and a weaker US Dollar index (DXY) provided a strong macro tailwind for risk-on assets. Macro Pivot: Lower inflation expectations driven by falling oil prices are giving investors confidence across all risk assets. 💡 The Crypto Takeaway: When Traditional Finance (TradFi) sees a liquidity injection of this scale, macro conditions improve globally. Lower Treasury yields and a softer dollar have historically pushed institutional capital searching for higher yields into alternative asset classes—starting with Bitcoin ($BTC) and Ethereum ($ETH). Liquidity flows through TradFi first, but Crypto often follows fast. 🌐⚡ What’s your play right now? Are you bullish on $BTC and high-beta altcoins heading into the final quarter, or playing it safe? Let us know your strategy in the comments below! 👇 #MarketUpdate #USMidterms #CryptoMacro #Bitcoin #BinanceSquare #TradFi$AAPLB $MSFTB $NVDAB
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