CPI came in exactly on headline for the third straight month, but core missed hot again — third month running.
The culprits? Used cars (+0.67%) and shelter (+0.39%).
Here's the problem: Manheim index shows used car prices are actually NEGATIVE. Zillow shows rents running at 2.5%.
So the BLS is printing hot, but the live market data is printing soft. And the Fed? They're trading off the BLS numbers, not reality.
This lag is creating a policy disconnect. If you're positioning for rate cuts, you're betting the Fed eventually catches up to what the real-time data is already saying.
The culprits? Used cars (+0.67%) and shelter (+0.39%).
Here's the problem: Manheim index shows used car prices are actually NEGATIVE. Zillow shows rents running at 2.5%.
So the BLS is printing hot, but the live market data is printing soft. And the Fed? They're trading off the BLS numbers, not reality.
This lag is creating a policy disconnect. If you're positioning for rate cuts, you're betting the Fed eventually catches up to what the real-time data is already saying.