83.7%.
That's the market's probability the Fed has hiked up to 50bps by December 9 — while the October 28 meeting is priced at just 17.7%.
Read the CME FedWatch screen like a trader, not a tourist.
FedWatch isn't a forecast. It's Fed funds futures prices converted into odds — real money, real positioning.
4 rules to read it right:
Cumulative ≠ per-meeting. December's 83.7% counts every meeting until then. October's 17.7% is one night only.
17.7% ≠ zero. It's ~1 in 6. Tails move markets when they land.
Watch the change, not the level. Waller said "additional hikes" — Goldman now expects December. That's how 17.7% becomes 30%.
0% chance of any cut through January. The floor only goes up.
FOMC October 28 is 19 days out. $BTC sits at ~80.4K. Hike odds break above 30% → 80K becomes the line. Odds collapse toward 10% → that's the repricing bulls want.
Don't watch the price. Watch the odds move. Trade the move.
---
83,7%.
Itu probabilitas pasar bahwa The Fed sudah menaikkan suku bunga hingga 50bps pada 9 Desember — sementara pertemuan 28 Oktober hanya dinilai 17,7%.
Baca layar CME FedWatch seperti trader, bukan turis.
FedWatch bukan ramalan. Itu harga Fed funds futures yang dikonversi jadi odds — uang beneran, posisi beneran.
4 aturan bacanya:
Kumulatif ≠ per pertemuan. 83,7% Desember menghitung semua pertemuan sampai Desember. 17,7% Oktober cuma satu malam.
17,7% ≠ nol. Itu ~1 banding 6. Ekor distribusi mengguncang pasar saat kejadian.
Perhatikan perubahannya, bukan angkanya. Waller bilang "hike tambahan" — Goldman kini ekspektasi Desember. Begitu cara 17,7% jadi 30%.
0% peluang ada pemangkasan hingga Januari. Lantainya cuma ke atas.
FOMC 28 Oktober tinggal 19 hari. BTC di ~80,4K. Odds hike tembus 30% → 80K jadi batasnya. Odds anjlok ke 10% → itu repricing yang diinginkan bulls.
Jangan cuma lihat harga. Lihat odds bergerak. Trade gerakannya.
#Fed #Bitcoin #CryptoEducation
That's the market's probability the Fed has hiked up to 50bps by December 9 — while the October 28 meeting is priced at just 17.7%.
Read the CME FedWatch screen like a trader, not a tourist.
FedWatch isn't a forecast. It's Fed funds futures prices converted into odds — real money, real positioning.
4 rules to read it right:
Cumulative ≠ per-meeting. December's 83.7% counts every meeting until then. October's 17.7% is one night only.
17.7% ≠ zero. It's ~1 in 6. Tails move markets when they land.
Watch the change, not the level. Waller said "additional hikes" — Goldman now expects December. That's how 17.7% becomes 30%.
0% chance of any cut through January. The floor only goes up.
FOMC October 28 is 19 days out. $BTC sits at ~80.4K. Hike odds break above 30% → 80K becomes the line. Odds collapse toward 10% → that's the repricing bulls want.
Don't watch the price. Watch the odds move. Trade the move.
---
83,7%.
Itu probabilitas pasar bahwa The Fed sudah menaikkan suku bunga hingga 50bps pada 9 Desember — sementara pertemuan 28 Oktober hanya dinilai 17,7%.
Baca layar CME FedWatch seperti trader, bukan turis.
FedWatch bukan ramalan. Itu harga Fed funds futures yang dikonversi jadi odds — uang beneran, posisi beneran.
4 aturan bacanya:
Kumulatif ≠ per pertemuan. 83,7% Desember menghitung semua pertemuan sampai Desember. 17,7% Oktober cuma satu malam.
17,7% ≠ nol. Itu ~1 banding 6. Ekor distribusi mengguncang pasar saat kejadian.
Perhatikan perubahannya, bukan angkanya. Waller bilang "hike tambahan" — Goldman kini ekspektasi Desember. Begitu cara 17,7% jadi 30%.
0% peluang ada pemangkasan hingga Januari. Lantainya cuma ke atas.
FOMC 28 Oktober tinggal 19 hari. BTC di ~80,4K. Odds hike tembus 30% → 80K jadi batasnya. Odds anjlok ke 10% → itu repricing yang diinginkan bulls.
Jangan cuma lihat harga. Lihat odds bergerak. Trade gerakannya.
#Fed #Bitcoin #CryptoEducation