Bond yields falling, oil at a two-week low, $NVDA at an all-time high, and the S&P just crossed its own record in pre-market after tacking on $500B in market cap yesterday — now sitting above $70T total.
But the breadth underneath is terrible. Financials and consumer discretionary aren't playing along. Even inside semis, memory names are still well off their highs. This rally is almost entirely large-cap tech: $TSM $NVDA $META $GOOGL $AMD $AVGO $MSFT dragging the index up on their own.
So the question: is the market wrong here — a bull trap with oil still elevated on the year and yields at three-year highs — or is it front-running the inevitable drop in both, which would also kill any remaining Fed hike risk?
If it's the latter, things could get very interesting very quickly.
But the breadth underneath is terrible. Financials and consumer discretionary aren't playing along. Even inside semis, memory names are still well off their highs. This rally is almost entirely large-cap tech: $TSM $NVDA $META $GOOGL $AMD $AVGO $MSFT dragging the index up on their own.
So the question: is the market wrong here — a bull trap with oil still elevated on the year and yields at three-year highs — or is it front-running the inevitable drop in both, which would also kill any remaining Fed hike risk?
If it's the latter, things could get very interesting very quickly.
