The dashboard said +$7B inflow. The real flow was outflow. 🔎
One number nearly sent me the wrong way.
BTC exchange reserves are up about $7B in 30 days. That looks like coins heading to exchanges to be sold. Scary.
But that's the reserve in dollars. BTC's price rose roughly 6-7% over the same period, and price pushed the dollar number up. Count the coins instead:
30-day net flow: about -27,700 BTC (outflow, roughly 1% of reserves)
7-day net flow: about -6,800 BTC
Sep 22, Binance alone: about -13,600 BTC (~$1.17B), nearly half of the whole month
Everyone is looking at the dollar line. I'd look at the coin count.
My read: the outflow is real but modest, and much of it is one day. I'm not saying whales are buying. Coins leaving an exchange can go to self-custody, ETF custody, or just internal wallet moves.
Stronger if: weekly outflows keep coming after that one big day.
Wrong if: the Binance move turns out to be wallet reshuffling.
Be honest: when a dashboard shows a big green number, do you check what's inside it?
⚠️ Not financial advice. Data comes from public dashboards and may differ between sources. DYOR.
#BTC #Bitcoin #OnChain #ZeroResearch #DYOR
One number nearly sent me the wrong way.
BTC exchange reserves are up about $7B in 30 days. That looks like coins heading to exchanges to be sold. Scary.
But that's the reserve in dollars. BTC's price rose roughly 6-7% over the same period, and price pushed the dollar number up. Count the coins instead:
30-day net flow: about -27,700 BTC (outflow, roughly 1% of reserves)
7-day net flow: about -6,800 BTC
Sep 22, Binance alone: about -13,600 BTC (~$1.17B), nearly half of the whole month
Everyone is looking at the dollar line. I'd look at the coin count.
My read: the outflow is real but modest, and much of it is one day. I'm not saying whales are buying. Coins leaving an exchange can go to self-custody, ETF custody, or just internal wallet moves.
Stronger if: weekly outflows keep coming after that one big day.
Wrong if: the Binance move turns out to be wallet reshuffling.
Be honest: when a dashboard shows a big green number, do you check what's inside it?
⚠️ Not financial advice. Data comes from public dashboards and may differ between sources. DYOR.
#BTC #Bitcoin #OnChain #ZeroResearch #DYOR
