October's first half has historically been one of the strongest periods for stocks in midterm election years.
Since 1928, the $SPY averages +2.1% in early October during midterms—the best half-month performance of Q4. Positive returns show up 71% of the time.
This comes right after late September, which typically dips -1.1%.
Late October is calmer: +0.3% average, 62% win rate.
Then November's first half kicks in strong: +1.7% average return, positive 79% of the time.
Seasonality is shifting in favor of equities. History doesn't repeat perfectly, but the pattern is clear.
Since 1928, the $SPY averages +2.1% in early October during midterms—the best half-month performance of Q4. Positive returns show up 71% of the time.
This comes right after late September, which typically dips -1.1%.
Late October is calmer: +0.3% average, 62% win rate.
Then November's first half kicks in strong: +1.7% average return, positive 79% of the time.
Seasonality is shifting in favor of equities. History doesn't repeat perfectly, but the pattern is clear.