#EarningsSeason
This is the part of the market where the chart can stop telling the whole story.
Q3 earnings expectations are already high. FactSet’s latest estimate puts S&P 500 earnings growth around 28.9% year over year, which would mark a third straight quarter above 25%.
But after watching earnings seasons closely, the number I care about most isn't EPS.
It’s guidance.
A company can beat estimates and still sell off if management lowers the outlook. Another can miss slightly and hold up if the forward picture improves.
That’s why this season gets interesting.
Revenue → margins → guidance → capex.
In AI and semiconductors, capex is especially important. Micron reports Wednesday, and the market is watching whether AI-driven memory demand is translating into sustainable pricing and profits rather than just another powerful quarter.
And outside tech, the consumer side deserves attention.
Higher energy costs, Treasury yields and persistent inflation can eventually show up in margins and spending decisions.
This week alone brings Micron, Nike, Accenture, McCormick, Conagra and others, alongside major economic data including GDP, PCE and the September jobs report.
So I’m not watching earnings for the headline beat.
I’m watching what companies say after the numbers.
Because the market already knows what happened last quarter.
The interesting information is what management thinks happens next.
This is the part of the market where the chart can stop telling the whole story.
Q3 earnings expectations are already high. FactSet’s latest estimate puts S&P 500 earnings growth around 28.9% year over year, which would mark a third straight quarter above 25%.
But after watching earnings seasons closely, the number I care about most isn't EPS.
It’s guidance.
A company can beat estimates and still sell off if management lowers the outlook. Another can miss slightly and hold up if the forward picture improves.
That’s why this season gets interesting.
Revenue → margins → guidance → capex.
In AI and semiconductors, capex is especially important. Micron reports Wednesday, and the market is watching whether AI-driven memory demand is translating into sustainable pricing and profits rather than just another powerful quarter.
And outside tech, the consumer side deserves attention.
Higher energy costs, Treasury yields and persistent inflation can eventually show up in margins and spending decisions.
This week alone brings Micron, Nike, Accenture, McCormick, Conagra and others, alongside major economic data including GDP, PCE and the September jobs report.
So I’m not watching earnings for the headline beat.
I’m watching what companies say after the numbers.
Because the market already knows what happened last quarter.
The interesting information is what management thinks happens next.