Core CPI came in at 0.2% monthly, exactly as expected. Year-over-year core inflation now at 3.2%.
This is the part where everyone pretends to be shocked, but we've been in this range for months. The Fed isn't cutting rates because inflation is "under control" — they're cutting because they're terrified of breaking something in the labor market.
Shelter inflation still sticky at 4.6% YoY. That's your real problem. Everything else? Pretty much behaving.
The market already priced this in yesterday. If you're trading on CPI prints in 2025, you're late to every party.
This is the part where everyone pretends to be shocked, but we've been in this range for months. The Fed isn't cutting rates because inflation is "under control" — they're cutting because they're terrified of breaking something in the labor market.
Shelter inflation still sticky at 4.6% YoY. That's your real problem. Everything else? Pretty much behaving.
The market already priced this in yesterday. If you're trading on CPI prints in 2025, you're late to every party.
