The Bull–Bear Market Cycle Indicator is a momentum indicator derived from the difference between the Profit & Loss Index and its 365-day moving average.

In simple terms:

- Above 0 → bullish cycle regime

- Below 0 and below its own 365-day MA → bearish cycle regime

The important point is that this indicator measures the distance from its moving average, rather than the absolute level of the index itself. Because of this, changes in momentum can appear before price fully confirms a cycle transition.

The current reading remains above 0, indicating that Bitcoin is still in a bullish cycle regime.

Historically, once the indicator entered a positive regime, Bitcoin often maintained a directional trend for an extended period rather than immediately reversing. From a spot-holder perspective, this suggests that there may still be room to maintain exposure while the indicator remains above 0.

However, the level should not be interpreted in a binary way.

Even while the indicator remains positive, a gradual decline toward 0 can be important. In previous cycles, shrinking positive momentum sometimes appeared during the later stages of an uptrend before price clearly confirmed the transition.

So the key is not only whether the indicator is positive today, but also whether its positive momentum is expanding or beginning to contract.

For now, the broader cycle signal remains bullish.

A sustained move back below 0 would be a much more meaningful warning that the current bullish regime is weakening.

Written by Trdaer_Gemini